The question is not SHOULD he stay.

The question is not whether you WANT him to stay.

The question is whether you think he WILL OR WON'T stay.

There are a few positions I'd rule out entirely as targets for the #37 pick (QB, probably DT, inside linebacker, SS, probably FS).

So what position would I target. Here are my pros and cons:

Running Back
Pros: Should be very good value at pick #37. RBs very often make a significant impact as rookies. Can't fully rely on Cam Akers or Kyren Williams.
Cons: If Akers plays like he did in the second half of the season, and Williams develops, our need would be very limited. There could be very good options later in the draft.

Wide Receiver
Pros: Very good, immediate impact options could be available. Depth chart strong but, as we saw this year, you can always use more.
Cons: Don't need a No. 1. Probably don't need a No. 2. Unless we're going to move a player like Robinson or Jefferson, this is a position that can wait until Day 3.

Tight End
Pros: Very good options at this stage of draft.
Cons: Unless the offensive system changes, a TE is just not a primary player. We still have Tyler Higbee, so this is not a big need.

Offensive Tackle
Pros: One could argue that a long-term solution at LT is our biggest need
Cons: May not be viable options this late in draft.

Offensive Guard/Center
Pros: Can get one of the top OGs, may be able to get a Top 2-3 center, in early 2nd round.
Cons: Its a glue/core spot, as opposed to a playmaker spot. Impact may not be dramatic, and may not need to pull trigger this early.

Edge Rusher
Pros: Definite need. Pass rushers can make huge impact.
Cons: May not be a plug-and-play guy that gets out of first round.

Cornerback
Pros: Definitely can be impact players available here. Would be great to bookend Ramsey.
Cons: High boom/bust risk at this position.

All things considered, my first preference would be a LT, but I'm currently skeptical that a worthy one will be available (keeping an eye on the Senior Bowl for possible 2nd round "sleepers").

As a result, I'm on the fence between interior OL and CB.

Thoughts?

Here are the things I want to know...

1. McVay to stay?

Sean McVay has created this issue with deliberately cryptic remarks about his future. This has led to an avalanche of speculation and discussion of contingency plans. All of this could be over in a few days, as McVay may, after catching his breath, recommit to the team. If not, his departure would be a very significant story, as would the decision on what the team would do next for leadership. So, this one is either a tempest in a teapot or the story of the offseason. Stay tuned!

2. Who else will be back?

Matthew Stafford, by all indications, is a lock to return. Aaron Donald, I suspect, will not wish to end his historic career on the sideline (nor will he wish to leave a huge payday on the table), so I expect him back as well. Others are question marks. On the free agent front, guys like Greg Gaines, A'Shawn Robinson, Matt Gay, Nick Scott, Taylor Rapp and, of course, Baker Mayfield are potential departures. I also would not be shocked to see the Rams willing to move (more likely by trade, but perhaps by release) guys like Tyler Higbee, Allen Robinson, and maybe even Leonard Floyd (though his strong finish makes me doubt it). The only thing certain in this game is change.

3. New (or Returning) Veteran Faces?

Will the Rams be buyers in the FA or trade market? I've already predicted that the Rams/OBJ story might not be over. I also would not rule out a Brandin Cooks reunion. One thing is certain... much like the Yankees and Red Sox in baseball or the Lakers or Heat in basketball... when there is a veteran looking to move, the Rams are always in the discussion.

4. A significant rookie class?

The Rams will have more high-end draft capital than they've had in a while (assuming they keep their picks), as they hold the 37th and 69th selections in the draft. Whether they pick at those spots, or move around within day 2 of the draft, the Rams should be in a position to acquire at least two potential starters. Hit on the right guys, and the road back to contention could be a lot smoother.

5. Reverse F them Picks?

Would the Rams consider trading a major asset (we've talked a bit about Jalen Ramsey) to acquire more draft capital? I'd put that on the "unlikely" list, but you never know.

A lot to watch for in the coming months!

For some reason, I'm not allowed to post on the original Hamlin thread.
I'm sure it's not because I quickly disagreed with someone suggesting I was operating in the same manner as someone who would ask, "When did you stop beating your wife" or another who suggested I was creating a straw man.

I have a healthy skepticism when it comes to the NFL and it's decision making. This comes from being a fan for decades and paying attention to the league. From concussions to collusion, this NFL has not earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to big decisions like the one to stop the game between the Bengals and Bills.

Is this story the final word? No, I'm not saying that. But anyone buying what Vincent is saying without questioning it is carrying water for the NFL and I have no idea why they would.


Login to view embedded media View: https://twitter.com/DVNJr/status/1612639750984187904?s=20&t=2tcpNyGMFXHq94OoSNhPng

anyone catch that blizzard out of Boston that just swept thru California?

Boston Bruins 5
L.A.Kings 2

Bruins 4
San Jose Sharks 2

Bruins 7
Anaheim 1

Anybody here watching?

per this morning

His numbers from last season would've won the triple crown AGAIN.
His pace this season would've put him 3rd for yardage, 2nd for TDs and first in receptions.

They guy is incredible and will be kicking ass again, next season.

So what are we thinking...SOL?

I hope its Sol instead of Black.....

And bring back more of the bone, believe we were 2-0 in em this year....

…a long, stressful, offseason.

I get it.

You’re afraid that McVay, Donald or even Stafford could leave.

The notion of them bailing makes you angry.

That anger could cause you to alter your affinity for these individuals, and thereby taint one of the greatest periods in Rams’ history.

Once you start down the dark path, forever it will dominate your destiny. Patience, you must have. Train yourself to let go of everything you fear to lose.

And never draft an offensive tackle from a Big 12 spread offense.

I know how you guys felt all year. I admit that stung like hell.

The schedule is set.

It is going to be hard rooting Seahawks that first game, but that is what I’ll be doing.

Saturday, Jan. 14

NFC
Seahawks (7) at 49ers (2), 4:30 p.m. ET/ 1:30 p.m. PT

AFC
Chargers (5) at Jaguars (4), 8:15 p.m. ET/ 5:15 p.m. PT

Sunday, Jan. 15

AFC
Dolphins (7) at Bills (2), 1 p.m. ET/ 10 a.m. PT

NFC
Giants (6) at Vikings (3), 4:30 p.m. ET/ 1:30 p.m. PT

AFC
Ravens (6) at Bengals (3), 8:15 p.m. ET/ 5:15 p.m. PT

Monday, Jan. 16

NFC
Cowboys (5) at Buccaneers (4), 8:15 p.m. ET/ 5:15 p.m. PT

Byes: Chiefs (AFC), Eagles (NFC)

Looks like another woodchipper of a schedule

HOME
Seattle Seahawks
San Francisco 49ers
Arizona Cardinals
Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Commodes
New Orleans Saints
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers

AWAY
Seattle Seahawks
San Francisco 49ers
Arizona Cardinals
Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants
Green Bay Packers
Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
Indianapolis Colts

1. I've always liked the use of the term "commencement" to describe graduation. Or, as Semisonic put it, in semi-wordy fashion, every new beginning comes from some other beginning's end.

2. I won't lie. Adjusting from a battle cry of "run it back," to realizing it would be a struggle, to accepting that this is not our year was a tough road. But I'm over it now and ready to look ahead.

3. So many questions... the first that seems to be on the minds of many is Sean McVay's future.

4. Here's what I know... diddly squat.

5. You know who also knows diddly squat? Adam Schefter, Ian Rappoport, Peter Schrager, Mike "Collie Molester" Florio, and every person with a twitter account or username on a forum.

6. Heck... Sean McVay probably doesn't know the answer. And that's where my hope comes from. My theory is, if he was going to leave, he'd know now (or in the next week). If he's just tired and needs a break, let him have it. After a week on some beach, he'll be drawing up plays in the sand and calling the scouting department about prospects for Day 2 of the draft.

7. I'm also going to resist the temptation to worry about Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald, or any of the other missing pieces. Unless and until I hear otherwise, I'm expecting to have the band back together in September.

8. I'm not going to spend too much time on our final outing. It was, though, good to see a team with little to play for fight to the end.

9. Cam Akers' turnaround continues to be noteworthy. He exceeded 600 yards in the final 8 games. While that may not be enough for me to stop scouting mid-round RBs for the draft, I do think there is hope to be gleaned there.

10. Another player who, somewhat quietly, turned things around after a slow start is Leonard Floyd. Six sacks in the final eight games (and nine in the last eleven) is significant.

11. Baker Mayfield and the Rams were a good match, but I expect it will be a temporary one. I wish him the best.

12. The Rams will have a lot of decisions to make in the coming weeks. The mid-season release of dead-weight guys like Bobby Evans and Terrell Lewis tells me that the Rams will not be sentimental when making those decisions.

13. Biggest priority for the rest of the year: pull for every team that goes up against the 49ers until those smug asshats are eliminated.

14. I don't have a particular team to adopt for the playoffs, but I guess I wouldn't mind seeing Buffalo finally get a title.

15. With today's results, the Rams opponents for 2023 are now set. Home game against the Saints, road game against the Colts, and... oh, I can't friggin' believe it... ANOTHER game at Lambeau?

16. I might go to SoFi next year. My wife wants to take me there as a (belated, or early, depending on perspective) birthday present. So what game should I target...?

17. I guess I should make a prediction here for the offseason. Okay, here goes.... the Rams will sign OBJ and trade Allen Robinson.

18. So this will be the last weekly installment of 20RT for the season.

19. As usual, I'll have "special editions" for free agency, the draft, and whenever the mood hits me.

20. Till then... if you must be random, at least be thoughtful.

This should be my final 2023 season mock until the Combine is complete.

I'm sticking with previous posted thoughts about avoiding Free Agents this next year due to CAP limitations and to preserve future Compensation picks we are likely to to receive from free agency losses following our 2022 season. The only outside free agents I'm even looking at are Edge Arden Key and our own OBj, and that's only if they come cheap enough to not have an adverse affect for comp picks the following year. I give them both incentive laden contracts, and OBj would be on a one year prove-it deal.

My one and only big trade offer for an outsider remains with the Rams taking another shot at Edge Brian Burns, and for him to negotiate a new long term contract so we don't compound the mistake we made with Von Miller. I only move Floyd if we land Burns or another top young Edge, and for this I'm willing to use our 2024/2025 top draft picks to secure the deal.


I'll be going ahead with trading 3 of our current players for additional draft capital which will be above and beyond what we may be already slated to receive, as well as an assumption that our D.C. Raheem Morris will be lost to another team when he's named a Head Coach.
So it now looks like our draft, with expected comp additions, will consist of up to 10 players chosen, ... but thru trades, I'm getting us 4 new draft picks to bring our total up to 14. Moving Raheem Morris will bring us a 2023 3'rd round comp pick, moving down from the Rams 6'th overall pick in the 2'nd round will garner us a lower 2'nd and an additional 3'rd rounder, trading Floyd will bring us a 3'rd, trading Higbee will get us a 4'th, and trading Van Jefferson gets us a 5'th.

#1) 0
#2) 1
#3) 1
#4) 0
#5) 2
#6) 4
#7) 2

After trades our draft will appear as so ...

#1) 0
#2) 1
#3) 4
#4) 1
#5) 3
#6) 4
#7) 2


My 2023 Draft :


1 - N/A
2 - CB Christian Gonzalez, Or.
3a - C/OG Ricky Stromberg, Ark.
3b - TE Luke Musgrave, Or. St. (trade down from higher 2’nd)
3c - OT Darnell Wright, Tn. (Floyd trade)
3d - S Rashad Torrence ll, Fl. (Comp pick for Raheem Morris)
4 - DT Kobie Turner, W.F. (Higbee trade)
5a - RB Chris Rodriguez, Ky. (Van Jefferson trade)
5b - CB Avery Young, Rut. (Comp)
5c - TE Noah Gindorff, N.D. St. (Comp)
6a - WR Tyler Harrell, Ala.
6b - RB Rashon Johnson, Tx.
6c - S DeMarco Hellams, Ala.
6d - OLB Brenton Cox Jr., Fl. (Comp)

Our two 7'th round picks can be used to move up another pick or used in any manner you choose.

You may notice a few changes from my earlier mock a couple of months ago as 3 past players have chosen to remain in college next year.


Re-Sign :

QB Baker Mayfield (if the price is right)
DT Greg Gaines
CB Grant Haley
WR/R Brandon Powell
K Matt Gay
P Riley Dixon
LS Matt Orzech


All RFA’s & ERFA’s return :

Marquise Copeland - ERFA
Christian Rozeboom - ERFA
Travin Howard - ERFA
Michael Hoecht - ERFA
Bryce Perkins - ERFA
Shaun Jolly - ERFA
John Wolford - RFA


Returning contracted Practice Squad players :


WR Jacob Harris
WR Austin Trammell
RB Ronnie Rivers
TE/FB Roger Carter
OLB Kier Thomas
OLB Brayden Thomas
DE TJ Carter
DE Earnest Brown IV
TE Jared Pinkney
OL Chandler Brewer
OL Ty Nsekhe
OL Matt Skura
OG Okay Oboushi
OT Max Pircher


Rams Players lost to Free Agency :

DT - A’Shawn Robinson
CB Troy Hill
OT/OG - David Edwards
S - Nick Scott
S - Taylor Rapp
RB - Darrell Henderson
CB - David Long
RB - Malcolm Brown
S/LB - Jake Gervase
OG/OT - Bobby Evans


Free Agent Acquisitions :

Edge - Arden Key (3 years)
WR - OBj, on a prove it one year contract



Rams 2023 depth chart for the 53 Roster :


Offense (25) :

QB (2)

Matt Stafford
Baker Mayfield

Offensive Line (9) :

LT) Jackson, Nsehke, Darnell Wright*, (Noteboom upon return)
LG) Stromberg*, Shelton, Anchrum
C) Allen, Shelton, Stromberg*
RG) Bruss, Anchrum
RT) Havenstein, Darnell Wright*

RB's (4) :

Cam Akers
Kyren Williams
Chris Rodriguez*
Rashon Johnson*


WR's (6) :

Cooper Kupp
Allen Robinson
OBj**
Ben Skowronek
Tutu Atwell
Brandon Powell

TE's (4) :

Brycen Hopkins
Luke Musgrave*
Noah Gindorff*
Roger Carter


Defense (25) :

Defensive Line (5) :

Aaron Donald
Greg Gaines
Bobby Brown
Kobie Turner*
Marquise Copeland

OLB (5) :

Brian Burns**
Arden Key**
Mike Hoecht
Daniel Hardy
Brenton Cox*

ILB (4) :

Bobby Wagner
Ernest Jones
Jake Hummel
Travin Howard


CB (6) :

Jalen Ramsey
Christian Gonzalez*
Robert Rochelle
Cobie Durant
Grant Haley
Avery Young*, or Derion Kendrick


Safety (5) :

Jordan Fuller
Rashad Torrence, Fl.*
Quintin Lake
Russ Yeast
DeMarco Hellams*

Special Teams (3)

Matt Gay
Riley Dixon
Mathew Orzech

* signifies rookie
** signifies veteran trade or free agent


See you at the 2023 Super Bowl

Well fellas - it was a rough season for all of us: from running it back through to trying to run the ball behind a patchwork O-line…

Not the season we all thought it was gonna be - certainly a time for some soul searching and reflection.

Thanks for the discussion and insights throughout the year - it’s some of the best parts of being a fan.

Onwards to next season!!

The NFL has the worst officials in all of the professional sports leagues. It’s not even close. It has made the league seem fake and unwatchable. Which really sucks for me because I have been watching this league since the mid 80’s. Also, player antics are becoming unbearable as well. Maybe I am just getting to the age where all of these guys seem so to act like children to me. Honestly, if the Rams franchise were to go away, I wouldn’t watch the NFL anymore.

Well, I guess that’s a perfect end to this season.

Please for the love of God I hope our D coord Lovie Smith gets a HC job somewhere else.

The Lamar Jackson Contract Quandary - Say that 3x fast.

What do you do, if you are the Ravens? He is an UFA this offseason and reportedly turned down a 5yr $250M deal this past offseason looking for a fully guaranteed contract.

Week 18 he will miss his 5th straight game, missing 5 games in 2021 as well.

But… who could forget his magical 2019 season. 3,100yds passing, 1,200yds rushing, 36 TD’s against 6 INTS. Simply wow!

Do you sign him and make him among the top paid QB in the league?

Do you tag and trade him?

What do you do?

Will the Ravens Re-Sign Lamar Jackson? Why Jackson’s Contract Must be a No-Brainer for Baltimore​

The 2023 NFL offseason is set to bring massive changes across the league. The last two offseasons saw an unprecedented number of trades take place that involved star players and quarterbacks. This year’s slate of free agents has only two clear starters at quarterback: Lamar Jackson and Geno Smith.

Jackson’s at the end of his rookie contract at only 26 years old. Let’s break down why the Baltimore Ravens should want to re-sign Jackson, where else he could end up if they trade him, and what his contract could look like.

Why Re-Signing Lamar Jackson Makes Sense for the Ravens

We’re close to entering unchartered waters with Jackson inching toward unrestricted free agency. Even if we forget he turns only 26 in January, franchise quarterbacks simply don’t hit the open market. The last time we saw a star quarterback hit the unrestricted market in his prime was Kirk Cousins in 2018.

Jackson is more accomplished than Cousins was, with five winning seasons, an All-Pro nomination, and an MVP Award in his cupboard. He’s a transformative player for any franchise he’s on because he’s one of the very few quarterbacks who can be the sole identity of the offense. What he’s accomplished with one of the bottom receiver corps since entering the league is truly remarkable.

The Ravens wouldn’t be able to replace Jackson even if they had the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Few prospects over the last decade would’ve been worth replacing Jackson with. Even if the Ravens could land a Trevor Lawrence-type, they’d still opt to franchise tag and trade him in order to gain draft picks in return.

Considering Baltimore will be a playoff team this season, they have no avenue to reasonably replace Jackson. Backup quarterback Tyler Huntley is clearly a massive downgrade in talent, and Smith will likely be back in Seattle. The Ravens have no choice but to tag or extend Jackson long-term.

Extending Jackson long-term might be concerning for the franchise considering his injury history and the value of modern quarterback contracts. Jackson has missed at least one start every season over the last three years, including five in 2021 and at least four this season. Baltimore’s unwillingness to change the offense to protect Jackson has played a part in his injury woes.

Still, Jackson is the cornerstone piece for the franchise. They could look to tag-and-trade Jackson, but they can’t let him walk for free. And plans of franchising him for consecutive years would likely end in a Cousins-like departure down the road, whereas Baltimore would be better off just getting a deal done sooner than later to protect themselves.

Teams That Could Be Interested in Lamar Jackson

There will always be interest in a franchise quarterback who is just about to hit their prime, but the reality of current contracts and cap constraints can somewhat limit interested parties. For example, of course, Denver would love to land Jackson and dump Russell Wilson, but it’s simply not possible due to the structure of Wilson’s own mega-deal. If the Ravens were to tag Jackson and make him available via trade, they’d have plenty of willing suitors.

The most obvious candidates have a blend of cap space and lack of a star quarterback in place. The Miami Dolphins, New Orleans Saints, New York Jets, Indianapolis Colts, New York Giants, Washington Commodes, New England Patriots, Las Vegas Raiders, Atlanta Falcons, and Carolina Panthers would surely love the chance to land Jackson. Even Houston could justify hastening their rebuilding process if they could get the dual-threat star.

It’s important to note that a franchise tag, which would be worth about $31.5 million, would allow Jackson to negotiate with potential suitors who are willing to match his contract expectations. It’s possible, but less likely a team could trade for Jackson without an extension in place and assume the risk of later consequences and expenses. All Jackson can do to keep Baltimore from accepting a better offer from a team unwilling to give his desired contract is to threaten to hold out.

Miami and New Orleans don’t have first-round picks this season. Houston, Indianapolis, Atlanta, Carolina, and Las Vegas are equipped with top-10 picks. Could Detroit or Seattle jump into the mix with two top-20 picks this year?

Anything is really possible with the right quarterback available. Watson garnered a massive trade haul with three first-round picks, and he got a fully guaranteed deal despite the horrible optics with more than 20 sexual assault claims against him. A Jackson deal would be even more prolific.

What Is Lamar Jackson’s Market Value?

Jackson, who represents himself, reportedly turned down a five-year, $250 million deal prior to the season because he wants a fully guaranteed contract. It’s no wonder why Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti scoffed at Deshaun Watson’s fully guaranteed deal. But it really was a matter of time until quarterbacks started pushing harder for these deals, and Cousins was the first one to get this type of locked-in contract anyway.

Knowing the guarantee is a major part of this deal, the Ravens may need to lock in the full $250 million for Jackson to accept. It’s hard to imagine he’d take much of a discount per year as a trade-off since he played this season without a long-term deal. The days of getting a slightly more team-friendly option are likely gone.

Jackson can point toward how poorly the contracts for Watson, Kyler Murray, Wilson, and Aaron Rodgers are looking just one year later and say he’ll prove to be a value like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are.

It’s still baffling why Baltimore didn’t extend Jackson earlier like both the Chiefs and Bills did, and it’ll cost the team upwards of $7 million a year for their decision. It’s reminiscent of Dallas waiting to extend Dak Prescott but actually worse since Jackson is a much better player and proved it earlier in his career.

Other Ravens Options at Quarterback

Replacing a true quarterback is nearly impossible in the short term. There are maybe 10 at any given point who can actually help a franchise have Super Bowl aspirations. Jackson is one of them and is greater enough to be his team’s offensive catalyst, making him even rarer.

The Ravens’ only choice is to take a step down from Jackson’s talent level and adopt a more traditional offense. They could receive a quarterback in a trade, such as Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff, or Derek Carr, but two of those are stopgaps. There’s not an obvious young player who could interest the Ravens since Zach Wilson is looking like an all-time bust, and the Bears have found their own star in Justin Fields.

Could Baltimore take their bevy of picks, trade up in the 2023 NFL Draft, and retool around a project like Anthony Richardson or a traditional pocket passer like CJ Stroud? It’d be hard to fathom.

The Ravens have to make a decision on their identity moving forward, and that starts with how they handle Jackson’s contract situation this offseason.

Sunday January 08, 2023

Game Day Thread

The GDT is a live thread tradition here at ROD.

While we all get fired up watching the game, please remember our core principles;we always show respect for our team and each other.

Despite the emotional highs and lows watching a game, we will moderate this thread with that in mind, however please refrain from name calling. This applies to players, the Rams organization, and others.

This is the core rule of the GDT. Moderators are tasked to issue thread bans, at a minimum, to maintain this standard.

This is our team. Win or lose. Good days and bad. We are here for FUN, not to be dragged down.

A more loosely moderated atmosphere can be found in the chat room.

Go Rams!

———

ROD Chat Room;

Game Day Room

.

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers: Final Playoff Spot on the Line for SNF​

The Detroit Lions haven't been in playoff position since 2016. The Green Bay Packers were sitting at 4-8 a month ago, seemingly down for the count just a year after tying for the NFL's best record.

Both teams could end Sunday night with the seventh and final postseason ticket in the NFC, pulling off a pair of remarkable comebacks. For the Packers, it's a win-and-in scenario after a surprising surge, four victories that include two against teams in playoff position: Minnesota and Miami. It's quite a recovery from one of the toughest NFL schedules as the Packers' run game and development of rookie wide receiver Christian Watson has taken the pressure off their surprisingly wobbly MVP quarterback, Aaron Rodgers.

The Lions aren't quite in the same position as the Packers. They need to win and hope the Seattle Seahawks don't beat the Los Angeles Rams earlier Sunday afternoon to make it in. But just to be in this position is borderline remarkable considering the Lions' 1-6 start that left head coach Dan Campbell on the hot seat.

Detroit does head into Green Bay with confidence, defeating its rivals 15-9 back in November. It's the only time this season the Lions' worst-ranked NFL defense has allowed fewer than 10 points, frustrating Rodgers that day into a season-high three interceptions. Detroit continues to feel slighted by one of the NFL's best, claiming a season sweep is necessary to get Rodgers and the Packers to show them a little more respect.

"He's a Hall of Famer, but I just don't respect the way he's been talking about my guys all year," Lions safety DeShon Elliott said. "And the way that team views us. So we're going to go out there and prove something."

Can the Lions make their miracle playoff run a reality in the final game of the NFL's regular season? Or will Rodgers and the Packers become one of the strongest wild-card teams in recent history?

Sunday Night Football: Detroit (8-8) at Green Bay (8-8)

Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 8 at 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: Packers -4.5
Tickets: As low as $139 on SITickets.com*

Three Things to Watch

1. Can the Lions' defense step up?

Detroit's D looked fantastic against the lowly Chicago Bears last weekend, holding them to 10 points and a season-best 230 net yards. They had as many quarterback sacks (seven) as the Bears had pass completions, forcing a fumble en route to a second-half shutout.

But the Packers come in with a lot more momentum. Their 41-17 dismantling of the Minnesota Vikings last week included 163 rushing yards, 111 from Aaron Jones, along with scores on four of their first six offensive possessions. Green Bay has averaged 29.8 points during their four-game win streak, better than the current NFL full-season leaders (Kansas City, 29.1).

That could cause trouble for a defense that ranks in the bottom four in most major categories: total yards allowed (32nd), rushing yards allowed (29th), passing yards allowed (30th), and third-down conversions allowed (30th). The key will be takeaways: 13 in the Lions' last seven victories have helped tip the scales along with a resurgent offense. The Packers, who have 20 giveaways all season, are going to need to take care of the football at home.

2. Jared Goff vs. Aaron Rodgers

What would you have said if I told you before the start of the season Goff would have a better passer rating than Rodgers? The former No. 1 overall pick has revitalized his career these past few months, throwing 17 touchdowns to just a single interception in the Lions' recent 7-2 stretch.

Goff has found a favorite target in Amon-Ra St. Brown, whose four receptions against the Bears gave him 100 for the season. He should also get credit for developing other options, from DJ Chark to tight end replacement Brock Wright, thrust into a larger role after T.J. Hockenson was traded away.

If there's been a weakness for Goff, though, it's been on the road: his passer rating is just 87.6 with only six touchdowns and four interceptions. Will that give Rodgers the leeway to reassert himself? Even against Minnesota, he was little more than a bit player, utilizing the run game while throwing for only 159 yards and a touchdown.

Both men are former Cal quarterbacks, but Rodgers is the one who's far more outspoken.

"When it was 4-8, not many people believed," Rodgers said. "Next thing you know we're 8-8, controlling our own destiny with a game right here to get into the dance. How 'bout that?"

You would think he needs some special throws to Christian Watson in order to make it happen. The rookie wide receiver has piled up seven touchdowns but cooled off in recent weeks, pulling down just seven receptions for 106 yards during the recent three-game win streak. Jones is the face of the Packers, their best overall player who can both catch and run. But they'll need Watson and maybe Allen Lazard to remain a force, stretching the field and putting pressure on the Lions' secondary.

3. The Packers' return game

There's a reason the Packers' Keisean Nixon was named NFC Special Teams Player of the Week. His 105-yard kickoff return for a touchdown against the Vikings was the longest of his career and the third longest in team history. He now has back-to-back weeks with 90-plus-yard kickoff returns, just the third time in the last 45 seasons it's happened in the NFL.

That's a potential seven-point swing the Lions just can't compensate for. They're seventh in the NFL with 795 kickoff return yards but have two fumbles, no touchdowns, and a long of just 52 yards. Compare that to the Packers, whose 1,126 total yards and five returns of 40-plus yards lead the league.

What will the Packers do if the Lions try to kick away from Nixon?

"We'll just throw it back to him," head coach Matt LaFleur joked this week.

Final Analysis

Expect a close game, even if the Lions are eliminated — they're highly motivated to knock the Packers out of the playoffs. Head coach Dan Campbell and company should be commended for how far they've come in just the last two months.

But Rodgers and the Packers have the experience, the home-field advantage, and the momentum to get the job done. The return game could swing it as they march into the playoffs as a No. 7 seed that nobody's going to want to play.

Prediction: Packers 31, Lions 28

Sunday January 08, 2023

THE LATE GAMES
Chargers at Broncos
Giants at Eagles
Cardinals at 49ers
Rams at Seahawks
Cowboys at Commodes

THE EARLY GAMES
Buccaneers at Falcons
Patriots at Bills
Vikings at Bears
Texans at Colts
Jets at Dolphins
Panthers at Saints
Browns at Steelers
Ravens at Bengals

SNF
Lions at Packers

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ALREADY PLAYED

Saturday January 07, 2023

Chiefs at Raiders - 4pm ET
Titans at Jaguars - 8pm ET