Stay or Go, the Rams Can’t Afford to Keep Jeff Fisher
Posted by: Bernie Miklasz
http://www.101sports.com/2015/12/06/stay-go-rams-cant-afford-keep-jeff-fisher/
Question for the gallery: is there a reason — whatsoever — to bring Jeff Fisher back as the Rams’ head coach in 2016?
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With a $7 million salary, Fisher is the NFL’s fourth highest-paid coach.
If the decision is solely based on results, the answer is a clear-cut “no.”
Hold on.
Make that …
“Hell, no.”
There’s no legitimate reason for staying the course with Fisher beyond the end of this season. If you can give me a reason to reassess that opinion, then please enlighten me. I try to be fair. Really, I do.
I supported Fisher’s hiring in 2012, and I offer no backdated apologies for that endorsement.
I believed Fisher was a good fit at the time. The Rams needed to bring in an experienced head coach that had led his previous team (Tennessee) to a commendable if incomplete level of success.
In 2012 the Rams couldn’t afford to gamble on another inexperienced and overwhelmed rookie HC. Previous Rams regimes tried to go young and fresh with Scott Linehan and Steve Spagnuolo, only to fail miserably.
I was well aware of Fisher’s tendency to win and then gravitate back to .500 or lower.
But let’s have some context, shall we?
Fisher inherited a Rams’ dumpster fire of a roster, taking control of a team that had careened to the worst five-season record (15-65) in NFL history. And when the NFL team in your town has lost 65 out of 80 games, an upturn to .500 didn’t seem so bad. And Fisher had supervised two solid rebuilding projects at Tennessee.
Between 1999 and 2003, five seasons, Fisher’s Titans were tied with the Rams for the most wins (56) and best winning percentage (.700) in the NFL. In addition to capturing an AFC Championship, the Titans were tied for second in the NFL with five postseason wins during those five seasons.
After going through a necessary roster purge due to a salary-cap detonation, Fisher pulled Tennessee back into the playoffs for two consecutive seasons, 2007 and 2008. Only New England (27) and Indianapolis (25) had more wins than the Titans (23) during the two years.
Fisher’s overall record before 2012 wasn’t shiny overall — but it had merit.
During his first 14 full seasons as an NFL head coach Fisher basically had one of the best teams in the league in seven of the 14 years, and his 14-season winning percentage between 1995 and 2008 was .567, tied for No. 6 in the NFL.
No, Fisher never won a Super Bowl, but only five teams had a better winning percentage than the Titans over those 14 seasons. Fisher had more success in his background than he was generally given credit for.
Put it this way: with all of the hideous football we’ve endured over the last 12 seasons here in St. Louis, I don’t think we’d object to having the league’s sixth-best record over the last dozen campaigns or so.
Instead, since their last winning season in 2003, the Rams are 61-126-1, ranking 30th among 32 teams with a .327 win percentage.
And if Fisher could pull off two good rebuilds while working for a wacky owner at Tennessee, there was a legitimate reason to believe he could do the same here.
Nearly four full seasons into Fisher’s term in Earth City, it isn’t working out.
The measured optimism of Fisher’s first two seasons in St. Louis has given way to full-blown pessimism.
I’ve lost confidence in Fisher.
Given the Rams’ pathetic 15-65 mark between 2007 and 2011, I felt pretty good about Fisher’s 14-17-1 record in his first two STL seasons. But then the Rams took a step back in 2014, sliding to 6-10. My patience was thin, and I declined to accept Fisher’s attempt to put a positive spin on 6-10.
Still the Rams were seemingly trending in a positive direction earlier this season, battling to a 4-3 record through the first seven games. That was no small gain in these parts; the Rams hadn’t been 4-3 after seven games since 2006.
Like many of you, I’m just tired of Fisher’s teases. The Rams put together some wins, raise hopes, and then go into another absurd free fall that worsens the understandable fan apathy. I’m tired of buying into a sequence of on-the-verge breakthroughs that become anger-causing breakdowns. Enough of this. Really. Enough.
Sixty games into their regime at Rams Park, Fisher and GM Les Snead are 24-35-1. The Rams were at the depressing, desolate bottom of the NFL when Fisher arrived. And while they’re no longer the league’s worst team, Fisher’s winning percentage as Rams coach (.408) ranks 26th in the league. For a coach that’s deep into his fourth season on the job, that’s simply unacceptable.
This is a league of quick turnarounds.
In 2011, the year before Fisher’s appointment in St. Louis, 18 NFL teams (excluding the Rams) were .500 or worse.
Of those 18 teams, 12 have made the playoffs at least once.
We’ve seen some terrific, rapid-fix coaching performances in recent NFL seasons including three inside the Rams’ division, the NFC West.
Here are a few examples:
Seattle went 9-23 in the two seasons before Pete Carroll was hired as coach in 2010. Carroll has led the Seahawks to a record of 57-35 with two NFC Championships and a Super Bowl title.
The boisterous Bruce Arians was hired by Arizona in 2013 — a year after Fisher set up at Rams Park. Between 2010 and 2012, the Cardinals went 18-30. Under Arians, they’re 31-13 (.705) and just clinched their third consecutive season of double-digit win totals. Arizona is tied for the NFL’s fourth-best record under Arians. And again: Fisher had a one-year head start on Arians. And Snead had a one-year jump on Arizona GM Steve Keim. To put it bluntly: Arians and Keim really make Fisher and Snead look inadequate.
Though he ultimately fell victim to stupid front-office politics, let’s remember the exceptional work done by Jim Harbaugh did at San Francisco. Between 2003 and 2010, the 49ers were an abysmal 46-82. Harbaugh was hired in 2011, and over the next four seasons he transformed the ‘Niners into an NFC powerhouse. Harbaugh had a .698 winning percentage, made the playoffs three times, and won the NFC Championship in 2012.
Ron Rivera was brought in as the coach of the rebuilding Carolina Panthers in 2011. Rivera’s teams won 13 and lost 22 in his first two seasons; since then they’re 31-12. Sunday the Panthers rallied for a comeback win at New Orleans for their 16th consecutive regular-season victory.
The Kansas City Chiefs were 9-23 in two seasons before Andy Reid moved over from Philadelphia in 2013. The Chiefs have been inconsistent, but Reid is 27-17 as their coach.
The controversial Chip Kelly catches a lot of static in Philadelphia. But the Eagles went 12-20 in the two seasons preceding Kelly’s hiring in 2013, and he opened his stay in Philly with consecutive 10-win seasons and is 25-19 overall. Kelly is only 5-7 this year but has a chance to win the weak NFC East.
The Minnesota Vikings are 15-13 under second-year head coach Mike Zimmer. That seems rather ordinary — but looks a lot better when you realize that the Vikes were 24-39 in their previous four seasons.
Former Chicago Bears coach Lovie Smith was given custody of a horrendous Tampa Bay franchise in 2014, and opened with a 2-14 record. But in his second season the Buccaneers have heated up, currently sitting at 6-6 after winning five of their last eight.
In St. Louis, Fisher hasn’t stopped the bleeding that began last season.
— After putting up a hopeful 14-17-1 record (.435) in his first two seasons, Fisher is 10-18 since the start of last year.
— With Sunday’s humiliating 27-3 loss to Arians and the Cardinals, the Rams have only four wins in their last 15 regular-season games. (On a side note: what the heck was Arians up to with his physical, bear-hugging grip on Fisher after the game? We appreciated the comic relief, Bruce.)
— Since Dec. 11 of last season, only Cleveland (two) and Tennessee (three) have fewer wins than the Rams’ four over this 15-game period. The Rams have been outscored by 98 points during this 4-11 regression.
— The Rams’ current five-game losing streak is the longest by the franchise since that 2011 wreck of a team closed the season with seven consecutive losses.
— During the skid that wiped out the Rams’ 4-3 start, they’ve suffered three 24-point blowout losses and have been outscored 132 to 54.
— Since taking a 13-3 lead into the fourth quarter at Baltimore on Nov. 22, the Rams have been outscored 71-10.
— In their five straight defeats, the Rams have scored 10.4 points per game.
— The St. Louis defense is in a state of collapse, having been plundered for an average of 25 points during the five-game sinking. This tired defense gave up an average of only 15.4 offensive points through the first seven games.
In other words: the Rams have ceased being competitive.
Fisher and Snead can’t put the blame on anyone else.
This is their team.
They’ve had four drafts and just as many free-agent shopping windows to build a winner. Instead of improving, the Rams have fallen apart. That isn’t supposed to happen in a league where coaches frequently pull off a team turnaround in short time.
Dick Vermeil took over a drifting, directionless Rams franchise in 1997 and spent two hard seasons changing the Rams’ diseased culture and working with Charley Armey and John Shaw to upgrade the Rams roster. Between 1990 and 1998, nine seasons, the Rams had the league’s next-to-worst winning percentage at .313. And it Vermeil struggled in his first two seasons, 1997 and ’98, losing 23 of 32 games. But in this third season Vermeil led the Rams to a 13-3 record and a victory in Super Bowl 34.
In the modern NFL it should take only three years — tops — to refurbish a loser and make it a winner.
Fisher and Snead have drafted 38 players in four years — a crop that should have gotten a major boost from the 2012 pre-draft trade with Washington, which coveted the No. 2 overall pick to select Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III.
That deal gave the Rams a bundle of premium draft picks, but the Fisher and Snead didn’t come close to maximizing the potential windfall.
Because of that the Rams are experiencing the severe repercussions of taking so many underwhelming or failed draft picks.
That’s especially true with their impotent offense, which is tied with San Francisco for the fewest points in the league this season — with a putrid average of 14.4 offensive points per game.
The Rams used 12 of the 37 picks on so-called “skill position” players: quarterbacks (two), running backs (five) and wide receivers (five.) Only five of the 12 players are still on the roster. And only two — running back Todd Gurley and wide receiver Tavon Austin — can be categorized as impact talent. But that’s even a stretch considering Austin’s inconsistency and Gurley’s dramatic drop in production.
Not that Gurley is at fault; the Rams are wasting him. After a dramatic first four starts to his NFL career, Gurley has averaged only 52 yards rushing during this five-game wrong turn into another dead end.
Remarkably, the coaches have given Gurley only 18 carries (combined) over the last two games.
How can that be? That’s inexcusable.
Gurley is their best player.
So even when the Rams draft a gem such as Gurley, they can’t take full advantage of his talent. It’s sad.
The foundation for Fisher’s coaching rep as formed by defense and a power-running offense. Four years into the program the Rams’ defense has been solid and often outstanding, ranking (in order) 16th, 13th, 5th and 9th in offensive points allowed. But the bullying rushing attack hasn’t surfaced regularly enough; over Fisher’s 60 games the Rams rank 17th in ground yards per game.
Snead and Fisher have also chosen 10 offensive linemen, including eight during the last two drafts. Left tackle Greg Robinson, selected No. 2 overall in 2014, is rated among the NFL’s worst offensive tackles this season by Pro Football Focus. Going into the Arizona game Robinson had given up more QB hits than any NFL offensive tackle in 2015 according to PFF. And Robinson has committed the most holding penalties in the league this year. While it’s too soon to judge the Rams’ 2015 O-line rookies as a group, only one, right tackle Rob Havenstein, is rated as high as “average” according to the Pro Football Focus player grades.
Fisher and Snead also traded for their hand-picked quarterback, Nick Foles, last offseason. Not only that, Fisher-Snead gave Foles a contract extension (with $14 million guaranteed) before he took a snap in a regular-season game. Foles is having a brutal season, ranking 30th among 31 qualifying NFL quarterbacks with a passer rating of 69.0. That 69 passer rating would be the second worst in a season by a Rams’ starting quarterback since the team moved here in 1995. (In case you’re wondering, Tony Banks had a 68.6 passer rating in 1998.) Foles will be benched, again, for Case Keenum when the Rams host the Detroit Lions on Sunday. Plenty of good seats remain.
With all of the swings and misses on draft picks and other personnel decisions — all of that money to tight end Jared Cook to name one — should we really be surprised to see the Fisher-Snead offense degenerate into the league’s sorriest unit in 2015?
“It’s kind of a broken record thing here with the offense,” Fisher said after Sunday’s smackdown by Arizona. “We have to get the offense fixed.”
Coach: you’ve been saying that for four seasons.
The Rams have yet to field an average offense — in terms of points scored– since you took over in 2012.
In Fisher’s four seasons the Rams’ offense has scored 108 touchdowns from scrimmage. That ranks 30th, above only Cleveland (107) and Jacksonville.
How many years does Fisher need to fix the offense? Six? Eight? Ten?
It’s quite possible that he’ll never fix it.
Fisher hasn’t had an offense ranked better better than 12th in the NFL in offensive points scored since 2003.
Fisher’s offense (Titans, then Rams) has scored at the average level for playoff teams only three times in his 19 seasons … and only once during the last 15 seasons.
Coach, you can’t find a winning quarterback, can’t build a powerful offensive line, can’t draft or cultivate a true No. 1 receiver, can’t even take advantage of Gurley.
And when you had the chance to remix the offense in a meaningful way by bringing in an experienced and creative offensive coordinator, your search was contained within the walls of Rams Park. You simply elevated quarterbacks coach Frank Cignetti.
That move was just another indication of the stubbornness and staleness that’s left this team with such a sickly offense.
Fisher’s arrow is definitely pointing down.
This is Fisher’s 20th full season as an NFL head coach, and he’s had only six winning records.
That includes only two winning records in his last 11 seasons — and none since 2008.
Remember how I told you about Fisher’s .567 winning percentage in his first 14 seasons?
Well, since the beginning of the 2009 season — and remember, he sat out the 2011 season — Fisher has coached 92 games with the Titans and Rams and has a six-season winning percentage of .418.
My friend and colleague Randy Karraker recently came up with this factoid: Since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, only one new coaching hire has been brought back for a fifth year after having four consecutive losing seasons. That was Cincinnati’s David Shula who somehow survived a four-season 18-46 record between 1992 and 1995. The Bengals finally gave Shula the boot after he went 1-6 at the start of his fifth season, in 1996.
ESPN’s Nick Wagoner added this piece of historical perspective: According to Elias Sports Bureau, there have been only three coaches that had at least five consecutive full losing seasons with one team: Philadelphia’s Bert Bell (1936-41), Dallas’ Tom Landry (1960-64) and Washington’s Bill McPeak (1961-65).
Will Fisher receive a fifth year?
The Rams’ extreme deterioration — especially on offense — should eliminate that possibility.
There’s no case to be made for keeping Fisher.
I can think of only two reasons why he’d stick:
One, Rams owner Stan Kroenke will be cheap. Fisher is due $7 million to coach in 2015, and Kroenke may not want to pay the coach $7 million to spend 2016 fishing in Montana. But that’s no excuse; according to the “up to the minute” Forbes 400 rankings of the wealthiest Americans, Kroenke is worth $7.7 billion. Money should be no object in the pursuit of turning the Rams into a winner.
Second, Kroenke may want to keep Fisher in place just in case the Rams get the NFL’s permission to move to Los Angeles for 2016. These franchise relocations are chaotic and disruptive, and it can only help to have a coach that’s been through it before. Fisher was coaching the Houston Oilers when they moved to Tennessee. But that would be a bogus reason. As we sit here today (things could change) I don’t believe the Rams will be moving.
And if the Rams stay, Kroenke must begin to repair the considerable damage that’s been done to the franchise. How can Kroenke relaunch the product for a happier, more successful existence in 2016 by bringing Fisher back? That alone would put a drag on ticket sales. And Rams fans deserve Kroenke’s best effort in pulling the team out its 12-season malaise. Even if Kroenke is allowed to take the Rams to Southern California, the football fans of Los Angeles should have a new start that comes with a new coach.
Kroenke tried to do the right thing when he spent a lot of money in hiring Fisher in 2012. It was a sensible move at the time, and Kroenke can’t be accused of skimping on the coach’s salary. But surely by now the NFL’s second-richest owner — an one of the smartest businessmen in the world — recognizes the futility of staying too long with a losing investment.
According to a 2007 account in the Denver Post, one of Kroenke first decisions as owner of the prestigious Screaming Eagle vineyard was to dump $3.3 million of Napa Valley cabernet sauvignon because it wasn’t up to standard.
Kroenke appears to have lower standards with his NFL team.
If Kroenke has developed an acquired taste for losing football, then Fisher will stay.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
