Should the Rams re-sign Watkins?

[TexasRam]

Being we can only guess as to the 2018 Salary Cap, the potential new contracts for re-signed players, and any future CAP cuts of current players or signed free agents, this is all pretty much conjecture at this point in time, however there are some basics at play which you can work from.

As we sit today, the 2017 Salary Cap is $167 mil. For the last several years the annual salary cap rise has been near $10.mil per year, adjusted to the NFL's annual income. The Rams are currently just under the CAP by about $5.mil. which can be carried over into next season if we don't have to adjust due to injuries causing the necessity to pick up an additional replacement player, or should the team not find it necessary to make any further contract changes as we did with Alex Ogletree a few weeks back.
So to start, considering another $10.mil added to the overall 2018 Salary Cap along with a $5mil. rollover of unused Cap this season, the Rams could have as much as $182mil in overall available CAP to spend next year on current & future players. The Rams have contracts worth approximately $130mil. outstanding for signed players in 2018, including any dead money due. These figures would leave us about $52mil in spendable CAP space next season, although you should take into account a likely CAP hit close to $5.mil for the 2018 draft class to be signed, bringing the overall available CAP closer to $47.mil. The Rams will be picking lower in the draft than normal and we don't have a 2'nd round pick, so our draft class should be a little cheaper this time around.

If you want to take this another step further, in another thread, which many will disagree with, I picked 3 current players as potential CAP Casualty cuts for 2018, which will significantly raise available CAP next year. In that thread I cut Quinn, Westbrooks & Carrier, removing approximately $11mil., $1.75mil & $1.mil in CAP liability from the books for a total of $13.75mil in additional available CAP which would be allocated to the $47mil in available CAP mentioned above for a new grand total of $60.75 mil. now available.
I had previously posted these following players as my re-signed UFA's :

Sammy Watkins (5 years)
LaMarcus Joyner (4 years)
John Sullivan (2 years)
Nickell Robey-Coleman (3 years)
Dominique Easley (if healthy - 2 years)
Cody Davis (2 years)
Jake McQuaide (2 years)

Signing the above 7 players should be relatively easy considering our 2018 CAP situation, especially considering when the Rams tend to sign long-term players to front loaded contracts even where those contracts are more often than not cheaper in year 1 than years 2 & 3. This next year, other than Watkins & Joyner, I see no real need for longer term contracts for current UFA's. Some still worry over getting Aaron Donald under a new contract ASAP, although i'm not in that particular grouping just yet. Donald will be receiving his 5'th year option money next season and even as a potential 'franchise tagged' player in both 2019 & 2020, he's likely still less expensive than what he'll command as THE top NFL DE will desire before he agrees to an extension. jmo.

I just hope Donald signs a deal soon. The longer he waits the bigger the price tag goes up for him. The idea of playing without a big guaranteed contract for a few years is risky for him and also makes it harder for us to retain him a few years down the road. If we could come a little closer to his demands and lock him up, we could focus more on other huge needs on the horizon like CB and LT.

 

[Riverumbbq]

I just hope Donald signs a deal soon. The longer he waits the bigger the price tag goes up for him. The idea of playing without a big guaranteed contract for a few years is risky for him and also makes it harder for us to retain him a few years down the road. If we could come a little closer to his demands and lock him up, we could focus more on other huge needs on the horizon like CB and LT.

I believe if the Rams really want to wrap this up with Donald, they can easily have more than enough CAP space to get it done in 2018, including re-signing Watkins, i'm just not seeing the urgency other fans are displaying.
Do we really want to pay Quinn's $12.4mil. 2018 CAP hit, that's $1.65mil more than this seasons awful amount. Doing this frees up money for any number of things. jmo.

 

[LA_Rams_#29]

Right now I'd say yes.... at a reasonable price of course. Tavon is gone at the end of the season...that would move Reynolds up the depth chart... If you sign Sammy you can focus on other areas in free agency and the draft...

but we'll see how it goes from here...

 

[Rams43]

My thinking regarding extending Watkins has “evolved”.

As of opening day I considered Watkins a “must have” and thought he would be a cinch to be extended.

But then the season happened.

Meaning that we own the highest scoring per game honors in the league. Plus a 6-2 record and first place in the division race. IOW, this O has been doing just fine despite Watkins’ modest contributions so far.

Also meaning that it’s become obvious that McVay is gonna spread that ball around among many receivers, including Gurley. And frankly, I suspect that our TE’s are gonna become an increasingly big part of this O.

So how does that relate to Watkins? Well, his role in this O is not to be a Julio Jones type. He will be but one of 5 players to be targeted by Goff on any given play, depending on who gets open.

So, Watkins is important and McVay would love to have him next year, but he’s not a “must have”. Either Watkins can accept that role and a reasonable salary commensurate with it, or he can take a bigger salary elsewhere with a team that is desperate for his services.

As Bonifay has already pointed out so eloquently, Watkins so far has not demonstrated that he’s worth a monster contract in this O. Emphasis in THIS O. But he does have 8 more games to blow the doors off and truly impress McVay and Snead. If he can do that, he gets his big contract and he stays. If not, he’s probably a goner. I make it a 50-50 proposition, tbh.

One last thing, and Bonifay mentioned this in his post, but I think it bears repeating. The Rams WR cupboard is not bare. I suspect that McVay is very pleased with the potential he sees in Reynolds, Pharoh Cooper, and Thomas. So, if Watkins does walk we are still in pretty damned good shape, if you ask me.

This Watkins decision will sort itself out over the next 8 games, plus the playoffs. Lol.

 

[Riverumbbq]

Right now I'd say yes.... at a reasonable price of course. Tavon is gone at the end of the season...that would move Reynolds up the depth chart... If you sign Sammy you can focus on other areas in free agency and the draft...

but we'll see how it goes from here...

I realize many fans don't like to see Austin here any longer, but cutting him gets us a charge of $5.mil in dead money added to our 2018 CAP. Anyway, Austin's overall CAP hit drops by almost half next year, from near $15mi. in 2017 to $8.mil in 2018. Yes, that's still way too much, but considering we only save $3.mil by cutting him, I wait until 2019 when his dead money drops to zero. Austin IS worth $3.mil imo, so I can wait one more season to bring in the ax. Now, in the unlikely chance we might find a trading partner, then jump at it. jmo.

 

[pmil66]

Rams are averaging 32 points per game. 32 points per game. Incredible. Bring the entire starting O back for 2018.

 

[Riverumbbq]

Very nice write up thank you! Personally if it's me I'm changing two things and that's not resigning Easley and Davis.

Easley has hardly been missed in his absence to injury and his money could be better spent elsewhere. We've seen good production from our current DE rotation and with a full compliment of picks, we have a full 7 picks just no 2nd or 7th but 3 6th's, we can add another Wade chosen DE in the draft.

Davis has been good for a long time and could be brought back but the price will be the issue. Love our long term prospects at safety with Joyner and Johnson. Again depth could be added in the draft for less money.

Sullivan is another interesting one hopefully he could be resigned cheaply because of his couple of injuries so far this year and his history. If not Blythe is signed for another year and has done well in relief and again a pick could be spent on it.

It's still very early and the focus obviously is on the last 8 games but it's still fun to think about these things.

Thank you,
IMO, Easley would be replacing Westbrooks, and the pay is not significantly different between the two. Westbrooks was removed because he wasn't effective in those first few games as a starter, the Rams saw reason to worry and made the correct decision to move the long established Brockers into this position. Easley was easily (say that fast 10 times) our best reserve LDE prior to this season and very well may have become the starter had he not been injured & Hayes not been traded to Miami. If he's properly healthy and passes the physicals, I believe he should get his reserve position back and will be an improvement on Westbrooks as back-up. If there is a battle to be fought & won by Westbrooks, it may be back at his old reserve position at RDE, although I might still have to give the edge to Morgan Fox.
Cody Davis is another low salaried player who won't be getting a huge raise, especially after an IR stint, and he has performed, imo, far better than expected as a reserve FS, ... his Special Teams ability is almost enough to qualify him alone.
Agree on Sullivan, if he wants to remain with the Rams, having Blythe breathing down his back will probably keep his salary demands fairly reasonable. jmo.

 

[payote75]

Being we can only guess as to the 2018 Salary Cap, the potential new contracts for re-signed players, and any future CAP cuts of current players or signed free agents, this is all pretty much conjecture at this point in time, however there are some basics at play which you can work from.

As we sit today, the 2017 Salary Cap is $167 mil. For the last several years the annual salary cap rise has been near $10.mil per year, adjusted to the NFL's annual income. The Rams are currently just under the CAP by about $5.mil. which can be carried over into next season if we don't have to adjust due to injuries causing the necessity to pick up an additional replacement player, or should the team not find it necessary to make any further contract changes as we did with Alex Ogletree a few weeks back.
So to start, considering another $10.mil added to the overall 2018 Salary Cap along with a $5mil. rollover of unused Cap this season, the Rams could have as much as $182mil in overall available CAP to spend next year on current & future players. The Rams have contracts worth approximately $130mil. outstanding for signed players in 2018, including any dead money due. These figures would leave us about $52mil in spendable CAP space next season, although you should take into account a likely CAP hit close to $5.mil for the 2018 draft class to be signed, bringing the overall available CAP closer to $47.mil. The Rams will be picking lower in the draft than normal and we don't have a 2'nd round pick, so our draft class should be a little cheaper this time around.

If you want to take this another step further, in another thread, which many will disagree with, I picked 3 current players as potential CAP Casualty cuts for 2018, which will significantly raise available CAP next year. In that thread I cut Quinn, Westbrooks & Carrier, removing approximately $11mil., $1.75mil & $1.mil in CAP liability from the books for a total of $13.75mil in additional available CAP which would be allocated to the $47mil in available CAP mentioned above for a new grand total of $60.75 mil. now available.
I had previously posted these following players as my re-signed UFA's :

Sammy Watkins (5 years)
LaMarcus Joyner (4 years)
John Sullivan (2 years)
Nickell Robey-Coleman (3 years)
Dominique Easley (if healthy - 2 years)
Cody Davis (2 years)
Jake McQuaide (2 years)

Signing the above 7 players should be relatively easy considering our 2018 CAP situation, especially considering when the Rams tend to sign long-term players to front loaded contracts even where those contracts are more often than not cheaper in year 1 than years 2 & 3. This next year, other than Watkins & Joyner, I see no real need for longer term contracts for current UFA's. Some still worry over getting Aaron Donald under a new contract ASAP, although i'm not in that particular grouping just yet. Donald will be receiving his 5'th year option money next season and even as a potential 'franchise tagged' player in both 2019 & 2020, he's likely still less expensive than what he'll command as THE top NFL DE will desire before he agrees to an extension. jmo.

Thanks bro. Excellent breakdown I hope those moves are all made like that, a corner in draft, and some line depth would be great but would be really great to keep tru and possibly add a linebacker I would also assume Barwins money also opening up which isn't a great deal but adds to the honey pot

 

[Ram65]

Will the Rams get increased production from him this year?

How much money will he command? Now or later?

Let's see what happens in the second half of the year. I think the Rams need Watkins as a deep threat and not just a decoy. Making a deal that satisfies both sides could be a problem.

 

[Riverumbbq]

Thanks bro. Excellent breakdown I hope those moves are all made like that, a corner in draft, and some line depth would be great but would be really great to keep tru and possibly add a linebacker I would also assume Barwins money also opening up which isn't a great deal but adds to the honey pot

Barwin is a 2018 free agent, his absence and lack of contract/salary are already accounted for in the Rams salary Cap for 2018 unless he is re-signed.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/los-angeles-rams/cap/2018/

 

[TexasRam]

I believe if the Rams really want to wrap this up with Donald, they can easily have more than enough CAP space to get it done in 2018, including re-signing Watkins, i'm just not seeing the urgency other fans are displaying.
Do we really want to pay Quinn's $12.4mil. 2018 CAP hit, that's $1.65mil more than this seasons awful amount. Doing this frees up money for any number of things. jmo.

Not to sound could but there is zero chance Quinn stays in ‘18.

Tavon however is another story. If he continues to play the way he is and impact the offense his price tag next year will be solid value. We are the 5th ranked rushing offense in the NFL and a huge part of that is what Tavon does as a runner and as a decoy for Gurley. In his career every time Tavon touches the ball he’s getting 7 Ypc.

 

[Riverumbbq]

Tavon however is another story. If he continues to play the way he is and impact the offense his price tag next year will be solid value. We are the 5th ranked rushing offense in the NFL and a huge part of that is what Tavon does as a runner and as a decoy for Gurley. In his career every time Tavon touches the ball he’s getting 7 Ypc.

I'd be very surprised if T.A. were released in 2018, his $5.mil. dollar Dead Money CAP hit alone should be enough to quash this conversation imo. He may not be what we initially expected years ago, but he provides enough to get him another year, although i'd like to see him get more targets, he should be more than just another decoy. jmo.

 

[dolphinlover123]

If the price is right. He is clearly talented and defenses will respect him. There is a spot for guys like him. But I trust Mcvay to make the right call.

 

[STLRam]

Not to sound could but there is zero chance Quinn stays in ‘18.

Tavon however is another story. If he continues to play the way he is and impact the offense his price tag next year will be solid value. We are the 5th ranked rushing offense in the NFL and a huge part of that is what Tavon does as a runner and as a decoy for Gurley. In his career every time Tavon touches the ball he’s getting 7 Ypc.

I know nobody agrees with me, but I still feel Tavon can still be a legit deep threat and slot receiver. I mean really, is his route running that bad that he can’t get open? I find that hard to believe, especially with McVay now in charge. Imagine Tavon catching the ball wide open in the middle of the field where a lot of Woods’s catches have been...he’d juke defenders every time.

I guess I’m dreaming but I don’t know why Tavon hasn’t been what we expected him to be. I have no problem with the way McVay is running the offense, and Tavon is a big part of it regardless of if he gets the ball or not. I still think he’s special and capable of so much more.

 

[Riverumbbq]

My thinking regarding extending Watkins has “evolved”.

As of opening day I considered Watkins a “must have” and thought he would be a cinch to be extended.

But then the season happened.

Meaning that we own the highest scoring per game honors in the league. Plus a 6-2 record and first place in the division race. IOW, this O has been doing just fine despite Watkins’ modest contributions so far.

Also meaning that it’s become obvious that McVay is gonna spread that ball around among many receivers, including Gurley. And frankly, I suspect that our TE’s are gonna become an increasingly big part of this O.

So how does that relate to Watkins? Well, his role in this O is not to be a Julio Jones type. He will be but one of 5 players to be targeted by Goff on any given play, depending on who gets open.

So, Watkins is important and McVay would love to have him next year, but he’s not a “must have”. Either Watkins can accept that role and a reasonable salary commensurate with it, or he can take a bigger salary elsewhere with a team that is desperate for his services.

As Bonifay has already pointed out so eloquently, Watkins so far has not demonstrated that he’s worth a monster contract in this O. Emphasis in THIS O. But he does have 8 more games to blow the doors off and truly impress McVay and Snead. If he can do that, he gets his big contract and he stays. If not, he’s probably a goner. I make it a 50-50 proposition, tbh.

One last thing, and Bonifay mentioned this in his post, but I think it bears repeating. The Rams WR cupboard is not bare. I suspect that McVay is very pleased with the potential he sees in Reynolds, Pharoh Cooper, and Thomas. So, if Watkins does walk we are still in pretty damned good shape, if you ask me.

This Watkins decision will sort itself out over the next 8 games, plus the playoffs. Lol.

I appreciate your opinion, but must disagree. How long had the Rams gone without a legitimate # 1 WR ? Not one since the days of Holt & Bruce. 3 failed coaches since Martz, and in every draft and thru all the free agency periods, ... nothing. It's a new era with McVay and he managed to magically snatch a top ranked WR in no-time flat, ... perhaps some may believe at a steep price with our 2'nd round draft pick in 2018 and CB EJ Gaines. Thing is, it will only be steep if we somehow manage to let him get away from us by not paying a true # 1 WR his worth. His cost will be well in-line once McVay has consistently proven to be a winning team manager, and Snead/Demoff aren't likely to give the house away on a lopsided contract. And this being a throwing league which the Rams have failed miserably to establish year in and year out. Sammy is learning a new system and now at mid-season looks to be coming into his own. I'm not nearly as interested in his stats today as to what he's done for the team overall and where he might take us in upcoming years. Being only 24 y.o. and with his potential to grow into this system along with Goff, Woods, Kupp, Cooper, Everett, Higbee & Reynolds, perhaps even the IR'd Hemingway in 2018, ... it should be fantasy land for us Rams fans at this moment. Watkins blocks, he pulls the defense out of stacking the box on Gurley, and he's a downfield threat who requires extra coverage while freeing up team-mates. Losing Watkins would mean being on the hunt for another elusive # 1 for how long ? The Rams are probably a pretty decent receiving team without him, with Watkins & his young mates, a great receiving team isn't out of the realm for our potential in the very near future. Watkins wouldn't be on the team if McVay thought him a poor locker room choice or a diva as so many at his position can be, and Watkins will find himself hard pressed to find another coach with McVay's seemingly 'midas' touch at such an early age, and someone actually relatable to his players. Watkins has street cred, other players know what he's capable of and respect his abilities, without him we may find a replacement of some kind, but doubtful he comes here overnight at less cost and with an immediate validity. Sorry, but i'd rather not wait another decade for a true #1 WR. jmo.

 

[PhillyRam]

I know nobody agrees with me, but I still feel Tavon can still be a legit deep threat and slot receiver. I mean really, is his route running that bad that he can’t get open? I find that hard to believe, especially with McVay now in charge. Imagine Tavon catching the ball wide open in the middle of the field where a lot of Woods’s catches have been...he’d juke defenders every time.

I guess I’m dreaming but I don’t know why Tavon hasn’t been what we expected him to be. I have no problem with the way McVay is running the offense, and Tavon is a big part of it regardless of if he gets the ball or not. I still think he’s special and capable of so much more.

I have been thinking if that could be a new wrinkle that we start to see.... getting Austin the ball more in space through the air.

 

[nighttrain]

concerning AD, Demoff has stated he is under contract without tagging him for the next couple of years. Maybe this isnt fair, but AD has signed the contract
train

 

[So Ram]

By the time we get to the Hags game I expect the Rams will have at least a two game lead over the Hags, sitting on Top of the NFC West, and the Game will be almost meaningless! ALMOST!!:mrburnsevil:

That all said — The Rams blew the game against the sea Jags. They should already be another game ahead of them.

 

[DR RAM]

Ask me around Week 17. I want to see what Sammy can do as he and Goff build chemistry and trust (and he gets a better grasp on the scheme).

I'm with you here. I wouldn't re-sign him today, or next week. He has to show improvement in desire, knowledge of the offense, and making plays. If he can start to do those things with any kind of consistency, I'd be all for it.