Big Offseason Question: How to Fix the Rams Offense?
Posted by: Bernie Miklasz
http://www.101sports.com/2016/01/04/biggest-offseason-question-how-to-fix-the-rams-offense/
After Sunday’s 19-16 overtime loss to San Francisco, Rams coach Jeff Fisher cited the need to fix his team’s clunker offense as the top offseason priority. He’s right, of course. But assuming that Fisher and GM Les Snead return for 2016, I’m not sure how they’ll get it done. Or if they know what it takes to get it done. And even if Fisher and Sneak know what’s required to repair this offense, I don’t know if they’ll be able to find the right tools for a successful project.
The Rams finished 31st in the NFL this season with 250 points on offense, an average of 15.6 points per game. Among the other NFL offenses, only San Francisco (232 points) was less competent in 2015.
The Rams were 32nd — as in last — in the NFL in the following offensive categories:
3rd down conversion rate, 26%
First downs, 241
Average yards from scrimmage per game, 305.4
Average yards per touch from scrimmage, 7.0.
Offensive scoring efficiency, producing points on 48 of 196 possessions, or 24.5%
Fewest number of red-zone drives, 36
Net passing yards per game, 175.3
Touchdown passes, 11
Passer Rating, 74.1
Yards per passing attempt, 6.2
Passing first downs, 126
Fewest 10-play possessions, 11
The Rams ranked next to last — that would be 31st — in these offensive categories:
Completion percentage, 57.7
Passing plays of 25+ yards, 23
Touchdown efficiency, with 27 in 196 possessions, of 12.6%
And the Rams ranked 29th in the league in these offensive categories:
Time of possession per game, 27 minutes and 31 seconds
Number of five-minute drives, 10 in 196 possessions
Touchdowns (offense) from scrimmage, 27
Number of possessions inside the opponents’ 30-yard line, with 54.
The Rams were 23rd in red zone TD percentage, 52.8
I could throw many other stats in there, but you get the idea …
OK, so what should Fisher do?
For Starters, Fisher Isn’t Going To Fire Himself
The problem with the offense starts at the top. I’ve reviewed this so many times I’ve managed to bore myself, so I apologize for also boring you. But just as a refresher, and I’ll keep it brief:
Fisher’s teams have had an above-average offense (based on offensive points scored) in nine of his 20 full seasons … Fisher’s teams have put an above-average offense (points scored) on the field in only two of his last 10 seasons as head coach … citing the advanced metrics at Football Outsiders, Fisher’s offense has ranked 20th or worse in DVOA (adjusted efficiency) eight times in his last 11 seasons …. and hasn’t been rated better than No. 15 in the league in offensive DVOA the league since 2003.
STATS LLC track of the points-scored average of the 12 NFL teams that make the postseason each season. In Fisher’s 20 full seasons, his teams reached or exceeded the playoff-caliber average for points scored only three times: 1996, 1999, and 2003.
What we witnessed on offense in 2015 was nothing new. In four seasons under Fisher the Rams have ranked no better than 22nd in the league in points scored on offense during a season. They were 28th in 2012 … 22nd in 2013 … 23rd in 2014 … and 31st in ’15. The Fisher-guided Rams haven’t topped more than 19 offensive points per game in a season.
And if we combine the four seasons, the Rams rank 26th or worse in the league in passer rating, yards per passing attempt, touchdown passes, passes that go for 25+ yards, third-down success, net passing yards per game. Over the four seasons they’re 30th in touchdowns from scrimmage, and 32nd (last) in scrimmage yards.
One Obvious Solution: Hire a Jazzy Offensive Coordinator
Fisher can bring in a bold, innovative, creative offensive coordinator that can take modernize the Rams’ playbook, remove Fisher’s leather helmet, and lead the old coach by the hand and show him a brave new world — a world dominated by forward-thinking passing attacks.
That sounds great in theory until we consider a few things including (1) hiring an enlightened offensive coordinator would force Fisher to break from his football beliefs, and I doubt that he’s willing to do that, even if he says he’s willing to do it; (2) if you’re a talented, rising-star offensive coordinator, then why would you want to go to work for the historically stubborn Fisher; (3) Fisher has one season left on his contract, and that uncertainty beyond 2016 doesn’t exactly promote the idea of job security for an OC that may have better job opportunities; and (4) as of now, the Rams do not have a quarterback on the roster that remotely qualifies as a franchise QB. That’s a problem. This is a quarterback’s league. And (5) why would you agree to become the OC here when you aren’t sure if team owner Stan Kroenke will still be plotting a way to move the team even if he’s rejected in his bid for LA this time around? Sorry, but this isn’t an attractive job right now.
This leads to the first question: does Fisher stay with Rod Boras as OC, or will he venture into the wild to hire an outside coordinator — even if the “new” OC is a lot like Fisher’s former coordinators? (I have a headache.)
So Go Find That Franchise Quarterback
The truth: the position hasn’t been much of a priority for a Fisher offense. And even when Fisher makes it a priority — such as last offseason’s trade for QB Nick Foles — it hasn’t worked out. The Steve McNair years were terrific for Fisher’s Tennessee Titans, who tied the STL Rams for the most regular-season wins in the NFL (56) between 1999 and 2003. Believe it or not (and it’s true), the Titans ranked 8th in the NFL in points scored during those five seasons. But McNair’s final season in Tennessee came in 2004.
During Fisher’s final six seasons at Tennessee and his first four seasons in St. Louis, here’s a list of the quarterbacks that started games for his teams:
Vince Young, 47 starts
Kerry Collins, 32 starts
Sam Bradford, 23 starts
Nick Foles, 11 starts
Kellen Clemens, 9 starts
Shaun Hill, 8 starts
Austin Davis, 8 starts
Case Keenum, 5 starts
Rusty Smith, 1 start
In Fisher’s defense, he got a Pro Bowl season out of the aging Collins. Fisher didn’t want the Titans to draft the immature and unreliable Vince Young but the decision was made above his pay grade. And Bradford’s two lost seasons (2013, 2014) to knee injuries wasn’t Fisher’s fault. But in a league where quarterbacks are kings, Fisher’s teams have suffered from QB instability over his last 10 seasons as a head coach.
Sometimes you get lucky. Kurt Warner and Jim Hart — the best and most successful quarterbacks in St. Louis NFL history — weren’t even drafted. Both were NFL walk-ons; Hart from Southern Illinois and Warner from Northern Iowa. The New England Patriots drafted Tom Brady in the 6th round. The iconic John Unitas was cut by the Pittsburgh Steelers as a rookie and signed by the Baltimore Colts, who found him in a primitive semipro league. The NFL has a rich history of quarterback folklore — largely overlooked quarterbacks that seemingly appear in the mist, and turn losing teams into winners — but Fisher hasn’t enjoyed much luck with QBs.
But part of that is Fisher’s responsibility. You can’t get lucky unless you try your luck.
During Fisher’s four drafts in St. Louis, NFL teams have chosen 43 quarterbacks including 13 in the first or second round.
Despite having 37 draft choices to utilize in his four drafts, Fisher has used only two on quarterbacks. He took Garrett Gilbert in the 6th round (No. 214 overall) in 2014, and went for Sean Mannion in the third round (No. 89 overall) in 2015. Fisher-Snead have had five first-round picks and five second-round selections in four drafts but used none on QBs.
I’ll leave the scouting reports to the experts and draftniks … but if you watched much college football in 2015, you’ll know that the crop of draft-bound quarterbacks is on the dull side. If Paxton Lynch (Memphis) is the top-rated QB prospect for the 2016 draft — an opinion shared by many — that’s a bleak indication.
Should we view Mannion as a building-block quarterback? I have no idea. He’s mystery Mannion for now.
If Robert Griffin III, Colin Kaepernick or Johnny Manziel become available this offseason, would Fisher-Snead have serious interest in recycling a high-profile cast-off? If an NFL team let’s go of an aging star — as a hypothetical, think Drew Brees — do the Rams have enough appeal to entice him to sign a free-agent contract here? I’d be skeptical.
And what about Keenum? He played decently in his five starts for the Rams. Does Fisher believe that Keenum deserves to be starter going forward? Is this enough to bank on?
No, it isn’t. Not in my view, anyway.
Four games into the 2015 season, Foles was had a 96.5 passer rating with 5 touchdown passes and 1 interception.
On third-down throws, Foles in his first four games had a passer rating of 114.3 with 4 TDs and no pick-offs.
The trade with Philadelphia was looking sweet, eh?
Slow down …
Over his next seven games, Foles spiraled with a 55.5 passer rating with 2 TDs and 9 INTs.
And on third-down passes over his final seven games Foles completed 38.6 percent of his throws, had 1 TD and 5 INTs, and put up a sickly passer rating 32.3.
No disrespect to Keenum, but it’s smart to beware of the small sample size.
What About Getting Better Receivers? Won’t That Help?
Quick facts: Fisher hasn’t had a receiver post a 1,000-yard pass-catching season since 2004. In St. Louis, Fisher hasn’t had a wideout accumulate more than 748 yards in a season. Again, Fisher isn’t an innocent bystander here. I’m confused by the folks who think Fisher is some sort of innocent bystander who has no say in personnel, no authority to choose quarterbacks and receivers. Fisher has as much power as any head coach in this league. If Fisher’s teams have an established history of lacking difference-making talent at quarterback, wide receiver and tight end — well, it’s no coincidence. Jeff Fisher has defense in his genes. And that’s why his STL defenses have been much better than his STL offenses. Sure, Snead has played a role in this roster shaping. But it’s really silly to pretend that Fisher had nothing or little to do with assembling the Rams’ current offensive cast. So to all of you Fisher Deniers: stop it.
So What Are the Positives? It Isn’t All Bad, Right?
Of course not. Having phenomenal RB Todd Gurley as the centerpiece of the offense is a fine place to start. He’s formidable. Keeping Gurley healthy will be the key to everything. With just a little creativity from the offensive coaching staff, Tavon Austin displayed the ability to make breakaway plays. He can become even more of a weapon if utilized properly. I really like the way rookie Rob Havenstein played at right offensive tackle this season. (Pro Football Focus graded Havenstein’s play at No. 34 in the NFL among 82 qualifying offensive tackles.) I thought rookie guard Cody Wichmann did some things well late in the season, and has a chance to be a good player. Another rookie guard, Jamon Brown, showed strength and potential before going out with a season-ending injury in Week Nine. But the Rams need to upgrade at center. Left tackle Greg Robinson, the No. 2 overall pick in 2014, has been a huge disappointment. In their season-ending grades, the staff at Pro Football Focus rated Robinson 77th among 82 NFL offensive tackles. I would like to think there’s still hope for Robinson, and he can always be moved to guard.
Fisher is counting on this young like to develop quickly. If it does, the Rams should score more points in 2016, especially with Gurley being fully restored following his 2014 knee surgery and lengthy rehab. But if the line continues to struggle, then the Rams will stall again.
The point is, there are no quick and easy fixes for the Rams offense. I wish I could identify a miracle cure. Fisher is unlikely to change his ways in a dramatic sense. And as I mentioned earlier, sometimes you just have to catch a break that occurs only partially by design. In the 2012 draft, the Washington Redskins found a franchise QB but it wasn’t RG III who was drafted No. 2 overall after the Redskins sent a bundle of draft picks to St. Louis to move into the two slot. No, the Redskins (apparently) found their franchise QB, Kirk Cousins, with the 107th pick overall choice.
Let’s hope that Fisher can evolve at least to some meaningful extent with his offensive philosophy. And hope that the O-line comes of age quickly. And that Gurley stays healthy and drives the offense in a way that sets up his quarterback to exploit run-stacked defenses. And hope that if Boras is retained as the OC, he’ll grow into the role and make a difference. And yeah, hope that Fisher recognizes the need to add a legit No. 1 receiver. And hope that the Rams can luck their way into discovering a quarterback worth building around. I don’t have a lot of snappy answers here. This Rams’ offensive issues are deeply imbedded, and simple solutions are elusive.
But if you ask me the Rams’ No. 1 area of need, I don’t hesitate: QUARTERBACK.
A good quarterback can cover for weaknesses and help compensate for thin talent. A good quarterback can maximize Gurley’s presence. A good quarterback can take Jeff Fisher Football — built on a physical and effective rushing attack — and elevate it into a well-rounded and more dangerous offense… just as the late McNair did for Fisher and Titans running back Eddie George.
Final Thoughts Which Solve Nothing
As I’ve mentioned before: when you look back at the 1998 Rams and their horrible and hopeless offense, it’s shocking to realize that we were on the eve of the “Greatest Show” run. All it took — I’m not sure if if I’m being sarcastic or not — was a chance to jump on an opportunistic trade (Marshall Faulk), signing an important free-agent guard (Adam Timmerman), have the no-name Kurt Warner shatter and break through the most optimistic expectations, benefit from a return to football health of wide receiver Isaac Bruce, draft a brilliant young wideout named Torry Holt, and hire a transformative mad-man offensive coordinator in Mike Martz. But that’s a long and imposing list of major changes, and head coach Dick Vermeil was enthusiastic about going in a dramatically different direction in 1999 after two losing seasons.
I just don’t know if Jeff Fisher has it in him to make such sweeping, redefining changes.
But start by getting an impact quarterback — easier said than done — and we’ll find out.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
