Fisher Expects Bradford to be Under Center for Rams in 2015

[Athos]

The thing with Sam is your plan B needs to be as good as most team's plan A, I don't see any FA much better than Austin Davis being willing to walk in to be a back up, so you're looking at a very early (first two rounds) draft pick, I'd rather take the Bradford money, go out and get the best OC and OG available in FA and trade up for Winston (if we investigate his past better than his own police department/school, and nothing comes up) than go with Sam an Austin Davis quality back up and draft OL in the first two rounds. Only back up currently in the NFL I'd be comfortable with is a trade for Glennon.

Coming to that conclusion. I'd feel a whole lot better about even talk about Winston had FSU and Co not just such a piss poor investigation in the first place. If Winston really is/was innocent, they could have cleared this shit up way sooner if they'd done their damn jobs.

I'm just not sure. He's certainly the best QB talent wise to be had.....And I don't want to put my metaphorical penis need to a crazed gun toter with a sawed off and a hair trigger.

 

[Rams and Gators]

Coming to that conclusion. I'd feel a whole lot better about even talk about Winston had FSU and Co not just such a pee pee poor investigation in the first place. If Winston really is/was innocent, they could have cleared this crap up way sooner if they'd done their damn jobs.

I'm just not sure. He's certainly the best QB talent wise to be had.....And I don't want to put my metaphorical penis need to a crazed gun toter with a sawed off and a hair trigger.

The sad thing is, I trust our front office to do a more thorough investigation into it than either of those two, if they do and they reach the conclusion that he didn't do anything then the other stuff was just childish BS (unless the point shaving thing turns out to be true, but I called BS on that as soon as it came out), we have a very mature locker room (credit to Spags and Devaney) so this could be the perfect place for him.

If we do draft him and it later comes out that the accusations are true then I'm never watching a game by this franchise ever again.

A first and a second won't be enough anyway so it's a moot point.

 

[jrry32]

Instead of playing games, let's stick to the topic, yes?
Schaub's career blows away Sam's career, in just about every metric. Comp% rating ypa etc etc
Schaub was a free agent in 2014 because of a horrific 2013. Same guy who just 1 season prior was a pro bowl QB. Age is irrelevant, a 32 year old vet on a 2 year cheap deal is less risk than a 27 year old who has missed the last year and a half due to injury.
As it was, Schaub was lucky to get the 7 mill because the Raiders are the Raiders
As for Palmer? Same answer really. Sam can't ask for Palmer money until he puts Palmer like numbers up for a sustained career

Okay, lets stick to the topic...Schaub was terrible in 2013. He was not a free agent in 2014. He was traded to Oakland and they renegotiated his contract.

Age is not irrelevant. When your physical skills are declining resulting in an atrocious 2013 season, age is not irrelevant at all. This isn't prime Schaub getting $7 million. Prime Schaub got double that. This is old, broken down Schaub getting that money.

As for Palmer? I'm not claiming Sam will get $16.5 million...I'm claiming he'll get around half of that...despite similar production over their last 2 years starting, younger age, and still possessing upside. Why? Because of Sam's injury history.

I have given great comparisons to set the market value. I'm not going to lets this one go. Bradford's market value is higher than you believe it is. He'll get an offer for $8+ million a year...likely a 1-2 year prove it deal if we cut him. And that's it for me.

Have a Happy Thanksgiving!

 

[StevenG-BR]

People saying Bradford's our best shot "if he stays healthy"... That's really getting annoying to hear. It's kinda absurd, since we know pretty much with certainty that he cannot.

It's basically like saying "Warner is our best shot to win... If he comes out of retirement."

The guy is done as our undisputed starter. In a best case scenario, he'll be a camp arm battling for the No. 2 spot. But no way should he be stealing first-team reps from a QB actually capable of staying healthy.

 

[Ken]

I have given great comparisons to set the market value. I'm not going to lets this one go. Bradford's market value is higher than you believe it is. He'll get an offer for $8+ million a year...likely a 1-2 year prove it deal if we cut him.

I think you're in the ballpark. I have no idea what the Rams will do. But my best guess is they'll restructure to something like that (8M a year for 2 years guaranteed) with incentives that could double it, instead of cutting him, since SB is our best bet if healthy. Then draft a QB within the 1st 3 rounds depending on how the draft falls. Retain Hill, or get an upgrade, if possible. No idea about Davis or Keenum, but both are likely gone (maybe 1 retained on PS if still eligible). The FO needs to make the right moves. That's why they get paid the big bucks.

 

[LesBaker]

you want to base Bradfords accuracy on how many catches his crappy recievers made in the past and you're calling the accuracy % an obscure metric? ok...

Bradford has his problems but accuracy was never one of them.

Yes accuracy has actually been one of the issues, he has never been all that accurate.

 

[Ramathon]

People saying Bradford's our best shot "if he stays healthy"... That's really getting annoying to hear. It's kinda absurd, since we know pretty much with certainty that he cannot.

It's basically like saying "Warner is our best shot to win... If he comes out of retirement."

The guy is done as our undisputed starter. In a best case scenario, he'll be a camp arm battling for the No. 2 spot. But no way should he be stealing first-team reps from a QB actually capable of staying healthy.

But we don't know either one of those will occur.......

- True, Bradford has not been able to stay healthy thus far. But it's certainly possible he may never miss another game in his career. It's like the old stock market saying...'Past performance is no guarantee of future outcomes'....or whatever the exact quote is. And that's at least somewhat applicable here as well. While I would agree the probabilities of SB8 never experiencing another significant injury are probably slim, it's not impossible.

And there's absolutely no certainty any other QB they might bring in wouldn't turn into the same injury plagued mess that Bradford has been thus far. Heck, it's entirely possible whoever they might bring in might have never missed so much as a single rep in practice, let alone real game time. But he gets to the Rams and turns into a walking MASH unit.

Unless of course, you've got some whiz bang crystal ball. And if you do, I could find MUCH better uses for it than discussing STL Rams QB problems.

 

[Mojo Ram]

A lot of talk about Bradford's resume. Completion percentage, accuracy. numbers etc...average stuff. His resume and recent work experience includes two ACL tears, 7 games played in two seasons and a guy who will still be re-habbing in March when free agency opens. THIS is what teams will be focusing on more so than anything else IMO.
Teams(GM's) would be gambling on his wrecked knee on top of his average career thusfar.

If hypothetically Sam had shown durabilty to go along with those average numbers i could easily see him getting a pretty good FA deal if the Rams had just decided to go in a different direction, but many here are overlooking the bad knee when throwing out tiers and FA money he could demand compared to other QB's.

Bradford isn't going to get paid like the other QB's mentioned in this thread. Not gonna happen. His 2015 deal will be a "prove it" contract wherever he goes.

 

[jrry32]

Okay, lets stick to the topic...Schaub was terrible in 2013. He was not a free agent in 2014. He was traded to Oakland and they renegotiated his contract.

Age is not irrelevant. When your physical skills are declining resulting in an atrocious 2013 season, age is not irrelevant at all. This isn't prime Schaub getting $7 million. Prime Schaub got double that. This is old, broken down Schaub getting that money.

As for Palmer? I'm not claiming Sam will get $16.5 million...I'm claiming he'll get around half of that...despite similar production over their last 2 years starting, younger age, and still possessing upside. Why? Because of Sam's injury history.

I have given great comparisons to set the market value. I'm not going to lets this one go. Bradford's market value is higher than you believe it is. He'll get an offer for $8+ million a year...likely a 1-2 year prove it deal if we cut him. And that's it for me.

Have a Happy Thanksgiving!

Lol. I meant to say that I'm going to let this one go. Well, that's a bad typo.

 

[StevenG-BR]

But we don't know either one of those will occur.......

- True, Bradford has not been able to stay healthy thus far. But it's certainly possible he may never miss another game in his career. It's like the old stock market saying...'Past performance is no guarantee of future outcomes'....or whatever the exact quote is. And that's at least somewhat applicable here as well. While I would agree the probabilities of SB8 never experiencing another significant injury are probably slim, it's not impossible.

And there's absolutely no certainty any other QB they might bring in wouldn't turn into the same injury plagued mess that Bradford has been thus far. Heck, it's entirely possible whoever they might bring in might have never missed so much as a single rep in practice, let alone real game time. But he gets to the Rams and turns into a walking MASH unit.

Unless of course, you've got some whiz bang crystal ball. And if you do, I could find MUCH better uses for it than discussing STL Rams QB problems.

The NFL isn't science. It deals in probability... not certainty. And probability says Bradford is done. Stick a fork in him.

By your logic, we might as well trade for RGIII and sign Chad Pennington too. Because hey, we know they won't stay healthy either... but it's not physically impossible!

And no, there is no guarantee that a new quarterback won't eventually be plagued by injury. But the probability is far, far less that it is with Bradford, and like I said, decisions are made based on probability.

We're not just talking about 2015 either. We need to consider 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019...etc. The odds of Bradford staying healthy for all of those seasons is basically zilch. It might as well be certainty... it's the closest we're gonna get when it comes to football. Look at his injuries dating back to college... the writing is there. I know people have grown attached to him. That's fine... that's typical fan/human behavior. But try to be objective about it. If you saw another team going through this same situation, and that team rallied behind the same QB for the third straight year, you'd laugh your butt off. That team would be a freaking punch line.

But if some people want to throw away a third-consecutive season because it's not impossible that Bradford will stay healthy (even if, practically speaking, we know that's laughable), then be my guest.

 

[Boffo97]

The NFL isn't science. It deals in probability... not certainty. And probability says Bradford is done. Stick a fork in him.

By your logic, we might as well trade for RGIII and sign Chad Pennington too. Because hey, we know they won't stay healthy either... but it's not physically impossible!

And no, there is no guarantee that a new quarterback won't eventually be plagued by injury. But the probability is far, far less that it is with Bradford, and like I said, decisions are made based on probability.

We're not just talking about 2015 either. We need to consider 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019...etc. The odds of Bradford staying healthy for all of those seasons is basically zilch. It might as well be certainty... it's the closest we're gonna get when it comes to football. Look at his injuries dating back to college... the writing is there. I know people have grown attached to him. That's fine... that's typical fan/human behavior. But try to be objective about it. If you saw another team going through this same situation, and that team rallied behind the same QB for the third straight year, you'd laugh your butt off. That team would be a freaking punch line.

But if some people want to throw away a third-consecutive season because it's not impossible that Bradford will stay healthy (even if, practically speaking, we know that's laughable), then be my guest.

I disagree with your thoughts about probability of remaining healthy. There's more to it than "It's not impossible". Do you think Fisher would even entertain the notion of keeping Bradford if it was just "It's not impossible"?

That said, with the bolded part there, I really have to wonder who people think is advocating the Rams putting all their eggs in the Sam basket. No one's saying that. I, and others, are saying not to mortgage the team's future by being on the bad side of another RGIII-esque trade, but there is a middle ground between setting ourselves back for years with a bad trade and not addressing QB at all.

 

[Ramathon]

The NFL isn't science. It deals in probability... not certainty. And probability says Bradford is done. Stick a fork in him.

By your logic, we might as well trade for RGIII and sign Chad Pennington too. Because hey, we know they won't stay healthy either... but it's not physically impossible!

And no, there is no guarantee that a new quarterback won't eventually be plagued by injury. But the probability is far, far less that it is with Bradford, and like I said, decisions are made based on probability.

We're not just talking about 2015 either. We need to consider 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019...etc. The odds of Bradford staying healthy for all of those seasons is basically zilch. It might as well be certainty... it's the closest we're gonna get when it comes to football. Look at his injuries dating back to college... the writing is there. I know people have grown attached to him. That's fine... that's typical fan/human behavior. But try to be objective about it. If you saw another team going through this same situation, and that team rallied behind the same QB for the third straight year, you'd laugh your butt off. That team would be a freaking punch line.

But if some people want to throw away a third-consecutive season because it's not impossible that Bradford will stay healthy (even if, practically speaking, we know that's laughable), then be my guest.

You talk about probability as though it is certainty. 'Bradford is done. Stick a fork in him." is a statement of certainty. The laws of probability would never say that.....only that the odds of Bradford getting hurt again are higher than for some statistical norm.

By your logic, I could buy a hundred shares of Microsoft stock today and expect the same returns over the next 20 years as those who bought a hundred shares the day the company went public and held for the first 20 yrs of it's existence. There certainly was a lot of 'certainty' based on that first 20 yr of returns.

Or from a different perspective......say I'm involved in an auto accident every yr for 3 years running. Chances are, my insurance company is going to, at minimum, raise my rates......or maybe more likely, cancel my policy entirely. None of that means I'll ever have another auto accident. I may never have another one for the rest of my life. But it's going to cost me a lot more to be covered for some period of time.

Bringing Chad Pennington into the discussion is absurd. His career IS done. He's not trying to get back to playing.

Personally, I don't give a hoot who the Rams' QB of the future is. All I care about is that player being capable of taking the Rams back to the promised land at some point. If that's Sam Bradford, so be it. If it's some 2015 rookie draft pick whiz kid (what are the probabilities of that happening), so be it. If it's Chad Pennington (as absurd a suggestion as that is), so be it. Makes not one iota of difference to me.

All I was attempting to point out was that the odds of Bradford being the opening day starter for the Rams next year are probably considerably higher than many might think....certainly a lot higher than many want.

 

[moklerman]

And that's why if Bradford is brought back, you don't "roll the dice" on him. You draft someone early (but don't overdraft). If Bradford goes down again, you have someone good to come in. If he doesn't, he sits and learns for a year and you have some great trade bait later.

I continue to not understand this mentality. Why would one assume that a drafted QB is "good"? Drafted QB's are usually just 2-3 years of hoping that the light will come on, not a "good" QB that steps in and helps a team roll to/through the playoffs.

 

[moklerman]

Fisher and Snead will be in year 4 of their regime and one would have to think, if they are interested in staying with the Rams, that they would be hesitant in gambling their careers on SB without the type of contract you mentioned and a damn good backup QB in case the worst happens.

I would much rather that we get a QB in free agency and get a center and a guard in the draft.

 

[moklerman]

Bringing Chad Pennington into the discussion is absurd. His career IS done. He's not trying to get back to playing.

Coincidentally, Pennington is a sobering comparison for Rams fans to consider. "If" he could have ever stayed healthy, Pennington was a very fine QB(highest completion % in history when he retired). But....

 

[Ramathon]

Coincidentally, Pennington is a sobering comparison for Rams fans to consider. "If" he could have ever stayed healthy, Pennington was a very fine QB(highest completion % in history when he retired). But....

Good point!

 

[Big Willie]

I think Sam is the best option for 2015, contract restructure or not. I think we all agree they need a young player to challenge him or eventually (short or long term) replace him (based on his injury history). With this said, I believe the team is ready to win now and with a solid QB, could be playoff bound. Personally, I am hesitant to put all my hopes on a rookie high draft choice not named Andrew Luck. The market for FA QBs will suck, and so we need Sam to give ourselves a chance. With Wells and J Long almost certain releases, the Rams will have money to carry Sam one more year and still sign their top UFAs and well as sign a couple of UFAs from other teams.

 

[Ramathon]

And that's why if Bradford is brought back, you don't "roll the dice" on him. You draft someone early (but don't overdraft). If Bradford goes down again, you have someone good to come in. If he doesn't, he sits and learns for a year and you have some great trade bait later.

In principal, I agree entirely. But it's also beginning to seem like not overpaying/overdrafting may be easier said than done...at least if some of the water cooler talk I'm hearing turns out to be true.......

1) The FA market appears likely to be pretty weak this coming offseason. Randy Karraker mentioned on The Fast Lane recently that, based on a first look at the likely FA QB market, Bradford might be the best FA available if the Rams were to cut ties with him. Now, I'm not touting RK as any gifted talent evaluator, but in general he seems somewhat more informed than many fan forum participants....and generally is rather pragmatic. So IF that view turned out to be a common one amongst actual NFL people, that says volumes about the available FA QB's this year....at least to me.

2) The 2015 draft eligible QB class seems rather slim. Mariotta & Winston seem to be the only 2 virtually unanimous 1st rounders with Hundley being a probably. And selecting any of them seems to have a share of risks....i.e., can Mariotta transition from a pure spread QB to NFL pocket style (isn't that basically the major concern about Bradford when he came out [other than the shoulder]), and with Winston it depends on where one comes down on Winston's maybe/maybe not off field issues or if he decides to stay at FSU for another year.

All in all, I'm beginning to think there's enough risk in either of the above scenarios to believe the Rams are going to be between the proverbial rock & a hard place if they want to either....1) replace Bradford, or.....2) have a Plan B that really is more like a Plan 1A.

 

[snackdaddy]

Does anyone know if Bradford injury is directly related to his first one? I mean, did he blow out the ACL because it was weakened from the first injury? Or was it going to happen on that play regardless? It didn't look like much at the time.

 

[iced]

Coincidentally, Pennington is a sobering comparison for Rams fans to consider. "If" he could have ever stayed healthy, Pennington was a very fine QB(highest completion % in history when he retired). But....

not really - Pennington's injury was to his throwing shoulder and his arm was never the same after the procedure, which also points to his high completion percentage.