Which QB should the Rams draft in the 1st Round next year?

[DzRams]

Like Darnold and Mayfield?

Former #1 and #3 picks that were drafted by possibly the two worst organizations in the league? No comparison, IMO. They're talent level was always higher. And they both had some success initially.

Why?

Bennett has no shot at being a real starter in the NFL. None.

The idea is to bring someone in who *might* be able to be a successor.

I don't see Levis with a shot at that, either.

But to be fair, I'm always for competition. If they bring him in for league minimum, bring back JG, and have all three compete, I've no problem with that.

 

[jrry32]

Yeah I get that. I'd rather take a shot on Simpson or Chambliss than a retread. I'm not a big fan of retreads as they've already shown they don't have it.

Not so sure about that. There have been a lot of QBs who had successful second or third acts in the past decade: Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Geno Smith, Ryan Tannehill, Daniel Jones, etc. Hell, you could even arguably add Jared Goff to that list. Sometimes, it takes the right opportunity to bring out the best in a QB.

My concern with Levis is that as physically talented as he is, he never seemed to have good instincts for the position, even dating back to college. But if there's nobody worth drafting and he's the best option, I'll defer to McVay. That said, I hope there's somebody worth drafting or a better option. And if by some miracle, we win the Super Bowl and Stafford calls it quits, I'd have some interest in Malik Willis.

 

[DzRams]

I need to see significantly more from a QB if they’ve got fewer than 20 starts in college. The track record for QBs with fewer than 20 starts over the past 15 years is abysmal. Cam Newton the only one that worked out and Simpson isn’t in the same galaxy of prospect that Cam was. He still needs way more reps. I actually think Brock Purdy is a high end comp for him, but Purdy started over 40 games in college.

Mitch Tribusky, Anthony Richardson, Mac Jones, Kyler Murray, Ryan Tannehill, Duane Haskins, Mark Sanchez all left college with fewer than 20 starts, and none of them sustained any kind of long term success in the NFL.

I think that under 25 starting stat would be mitigated by the fact he'd be sitting for a year or two.

 

[DzRams]

Not so sure about that. There have been a lot of QBs who had successful second or third acts in the past decade: Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Geno Smith, Ryan Tannehill, Daniel Jones, etc. Hell, you could even arguably add Jared Goff to that list. Sometimes, it takes the right opportunity to bring out the best in a QB.

My concern with Levis is that as physically talented as he is, he never seemed to have good instincts for the position, even dating back to college. But if there's nobody worth drafting and he's the best option, I'll defer to McVay. That said, I hope there's somebody worth drafting or a better option. And if by some miracle, we win the Super Bowl and Stafford calls it quits, I'd have some interest in Malik Willis.

Agree that right coach, right scheme, right fit matters. Baker Mayfield is the only one that I would hope the Rams build around. I'd like better for a starting QB than even Sam Darnold who's the 2nd best on your list above. If I'm architecting a team building plan, none of those guys sans Mayfield would be pegged as ideal for the future.

 

[Spider2YB]

I think that under 25 starting stat would be mitigated by the fact he'd be sitting for a year or two.

I hear ya, but I think he’d be better served getting another 15 starts of high level college football. He’s not some great physical specimen. He’s got a lot of room for growth that I’m not sure he’d get just by backing up Stafford. Those live game reps—especially on the road in stadiums that seat 100,000 people—are absolutely invaluable.

If Carson Beck falls to late first round, I wouldn’t mind taking a flyer on him. Ton of experience but still has room for growth. Played in a million big games.

 

[HitStick]

I hear ya, but I think he’d be better served getting another 15 starts of high level college football. He’s not some great physical specimen. He’s got a lot of room for growth that I’m not sure he’d get just by backing up Stafford. Those live game reps—especially on the road in stadiums that seat 100,000 people—are absolutely invaluable.

If Carson Beck falls to late first round, I wouldn’t mind taking a flyer on him. Ton of experience but still has room for growth. Played in a million big games.

If we took Carson Beck in the first round I’d demand Snead and McVay get drug tested

 

[jrry32]

I hear ya, but I think he’d be better served getting another 15 starts of high level college football. He’s not some great physical specimen. He’s got a lot of room for growth that I’m not sure he’d get just by backing up Stafford. Those live game reps—especially on the road in stadiums that seat 100,000 people—are absolutely invaluable.

If Carson Beck falls to late first round, I wouldn’t mind taking a flyer on him. Ton of experience but still has room for growth. Played in a million big games.

No interest at all in Carson Beck. Giving a young QB an opportunity to learn and mature behind an established vet is invaluable. It makes the live game reps when they come much easier to handle.

 

[jrry32]

Agree that right coach, right scheme, right fit matters. Baker Mayfield is the only one that I would hope the Rams build around. I'd like better for a starting QB than even Sam Darnold who's the 2nd best on your list above. If I'm architecting a team building plan, none of those guys sans Mayfield would be pegged as ideal for the future.

I think we'd all like a HOFer at QB. But you play the hand you're dealt.

 

[DzRams]

I think we'd all like a HOFer at QB. But you play the hand you're dealt.

Sure but that doesn't mean you gotta settle for a Darnold type. If we have to plan to overcome the QB, win in spite of him, and have the #1 defense just to compete, I wouldn't build around him. I'd keep looking. I don't think Snead and McVay are going for that level or would settle for that level. At least that's my hope.

 

[Merlin]

Sure, that helps for the future, but if Staff is the starter next year, that doesn't help next season. Does it?

Depends on how the season goes. Look at our post-Super Bowl victory hangover season for example. Perhaps getting a look at a young QB in that situation is a good thing.

I'm just saying there is a recent and significant history of pay concern. Also Jimmy is a FA. And where does Bennett fit? I think he's QB2 potentially but the Rams may not believe in him.

Lot of fans like to say "never" but I'm not one of them. I have no problem kicking around unlikely what-ifs. Maybe there is no chance of anyone other than Stafford. But I think McVay has the highest of standards, Stafford is aging every season, and he's got hard miles. So from my perspective it's a possibility albeit a longshot.

 

[Merlin]

My concern with Levis is that as physically talented as he is, he never seemed to have good instincts for the position, even dating back to college. But if there's nobody worth drafting and he's the best option, I'll defer to McVay. That said, I hope there's somebody worth drafting or a better option. And if by some miracle, we win the Super Bowl and Stafford calls it quits, I'd have some interest in Malik Willis.

The prob with Levis is he's got heroballitis. Every snap is treated like it's the last two seconds of the Super Bowl.

If he can't fix that what it means is he's stupid. But I'd be ok with him sitting behind Stafford and learning, he's a good athlete that can stress the contain with the scout team. Of the castoffs he's probably one of the better options this year.

 

[Spider2YB]

No interest at all in Carson Beck. Giving a young QB an opportunity to learn and mature behind an established vet is invaluable. It makes the live game reps when they come much easier to handle.

That’s not what the numbers show and that’s not how the NFL is currently thinking. The Trey Lance (who got drafted by Kyle freaking Shanahan) and Anthony Richardson failures, among many others, have changed the way they look at this. And I can’t think of a single example any time in recent history where an inexperienced QB was drafted off potential, told to sit and learn, and had it work out. Maybe you could point me in the direction of an example I’m not thinking of.

Look at the QBs who have recently come into the league and succeeded. Bo Nix (60 college starts), Brock Purdy and Jayden Daniels (both over 40 starts), Drake Maye (28 starts). And historically speaking—Brady, Manning, Brees, Rothliesberger, Rodgers, Stafford, Rivers, Lamar, Burrow, Goff, Dak, Trevor, Caleb, Jordan Love and on and on. These guys all played over 30 collegiate games. Josh Allen played 29.

Number of college starts and number of sacks taken have become two biggest of the biggest statistics/factors when evaluating college QBs.

 

[LA_vision]

Trade for Stroud on the cheap.

 

[Spider2YB]

Trade for Stroud on the cheap.

I think we’d have a better shot at catching Jerry Jones on a bad night and getting him to deal us Dak.

 

[jrry32]

Sure but that doesn't mean you gotta settle for a Darnold type. If we have to plan to overcome the QB, win in spite of him, and have the #1 defense just to compete, I wouldn't build around him. I'd keep looking. I don't think Snead and McVay are going for that level or would settle for that level. At least that's my hope.

We can do a lot worse than a Darnold type. It's not easy to replace a great QB. Ask Pittsburgh.

That’s not what the numbers show and that’s not how the NFL is currently thinking. The Trey Lance (who got drafted by Kyle freaking Shanahan) and Anthony Richardson failures, among many others, have changed the way they look at this. And I can’t think of a single example any time in recent history where an inexperienced QB was drafted off potential, told to sit and learn, and had it work out. Maybe you could point me in the direction of an example I’m not thinking of.

Look at the QBs who have recently come into the league and succeeded. Bo Nix (60 college starts), Brock Purdy and Jayden Daniels (both over 40 starts), Drake Maye (28 starts). And historically speaking—Brady, Manning, Brees, Rothliesberger, Rodgers, Stafford, Rivers, Lamar, Burrow, Goff, Dak, Trevor, Caleb, Jordan Love and on and on. These guys all played over 30 collegiate games. Josh Allen played 29.

Number of college starts and number of sacks taken have become the two biggest statistics when evaluating college QBs.

Trey Lance simply can't hack it. Anthony Richardson was not given an opportunity to sit, which was an idiotic decision given how much of a project he was. A lot of NFL teams make stupid decisions, oftentimes out of desperation. So many of these college QBs are coming from systems that don't ask them to play under center and heavily lean into RPOs. They have to completely reinvent their footwork, learn how to operate with their backs to defenses, and learn how to attack NFL defenses using NFL concepts. It's much easier to learn how to do that while watching a veteran than do it on the fly while starting.

As for the claims about inexperienced QBs, it reminds me of when people used to claim that Air Raid QBs never succeed. Kyler Murray only had 17 or so starts in college. He's been just fine. Cam Newton was a one-year starter in college. He was a NFL MVP. Tom Brady started a grand total of 23 games in college, which includes a number of games where he platooned with Drew Henson. So the difference between being a HOFer and a bust is 8 college starts and roughly 100 more pass attempts? C'mon now.

P.S. Kurt Warner only started for a season in college. How did he turn out?

 

[Merlin]

Look at the QBs who have recently come into the league and succeeded. Bo Nix (60 college starts), Brock Purdy and Jayden Daniels (both over 40 starts), Drake Maye (28 starts). And historically speaking—Brady, Manning, Brees, Rothliesberger, Rodgers, Stafford, Rivers, Lamar, Burrow, Goff, Dak, Trevor, Caleb, Jordan Love and on and on. These guys all played over 30 collegiate games. Josh Allen played 29.

I think there is a self fullfilling prophecy side of this. Where the QBs who have the competitive drive and at least enough talent will tend to push their way to the front of the room. Teams get in trouble when they push them to the front of the room to fulfill their draft day beliefs.

This is why I'm leery of QBs who sit comfortably behind others, like Simpson for example. Or those who are all upside and have bad film but go high, like Richardson. To me it speaks of a possible lack of competitive drive. College ball to me is like the savannah, where you get that natural selection effect and the right dudes generally rise. There are always outliers and teams make a lot of efforts to identify them to make their drafts stronger. But I do subscribe to the belief starts and good play are meaningful when projecting a QB to this league.

The NFL is rough man. To succeed as a QB you gotta be competitive as hell, dedicated to your craft, have enough physical tools, have enough mental tools, and along with all that be resilient in your belief in your game. If you were to total it all up, the physical stuff is just a part of what is required. But since they can't measure heart I suppose there's always going to be a lot of guesswork. So one thing you can point to of course is that he actually climbed to the top of the hill and produced. Or to stay with the theme let's say he dominated the savannah.

 

[DzRams]

We can do a lot worse than a Darnold type. It's not easy to replace a great QB. Ask Pittsburgh.

Agree that it could be worse than Darnold. I just don't see Snead and McVay building around a mid tier QB.

I'm glad you brought up Pittsburgh and Tomlin. One of the charges circulating is that Tomlin didn't have coordinators that challenged him and he preferred older players because they have a higher floor. Neither Tomlin or the team were willing to take a step back if necessary to build for the future with a higher pick. They're mediocrity is on them.

Neither the team or Tomlin had the balls to do a trade like Snead did to get Goff in 2016. They lack the aggression to flip Goff for Stafford. So yeah, QB purgatory makes a lot of sense for them. Don't see this current Rams brain trust having the same issue.

 

[jrry32]

Agree that it could be worse than Darnold. I just don't see Snead and McVay building around a mid tier QB.

I'm glad you brought up Pittsburgh and Tomlin. One of the charges circulating is that Tomlin didn't have coordinators that challenged him and he preferred older players because they have a higher floor. Neither Tomlin or the team were willing to take a step back if necessary to build for the future with a higher pick. They're mediocrity is on them.

Neither the team or Tomlin had the balls to do a trade like Snead did to get Goff in 2016. They lack the aggression to flip Goff for Stafford. So yeah, QB purgatory makes a lot of sense for them. Don't see this current Rams brain trust having the same issue.

You can't magically make a franchise QB appear. If there isn't one on the market, you play the hand you're dealt.

 

[DzRams]

You can't magically make a franchise QB appear. If there isn't one on the market, you play the hand you're dealt.

You said that already. That doesn't mean you have to commit longterm to that hand.

 

[jrry32]

You said that already. That doesn't mean you have to commit longterm to that hand.

Yes and no. The 49ers committed to Jimmy while looking for an upgrade. They whiffed on Lance. The Chiefs committed to Alex Smith while looking for an upgrade. They hit on Mahomes. These things take time. We might get lucky that a franchise QB is on the market when Stafford retires. But that's unlikely. We might also find a franchise QB in the Draft. That's more likely but still far from guaranteed.

End of the day, when Staff calls it quits, they need to have a starting caliber option to step in. Odds are he won't be a great QB. That's just the reality of the situation. Rarely do you have one great QB follow another. It happens on rare occasion (ex. Rodgers following Favre), but it's not the norm. It's why I keep saying that you play the hand you're dealt. If there isn't a franchise QB on the market, it doesn't do any good to demand one. And you may have to commit to a mid-tier QB while you wait for one to become available to you.