I like the Optimism but first round QB busts are very common. Not saying Simpson will, and I do like his skillset. It's just a fact of first round NFL QBs. Most are projecting a mid-level starter. If he reaches Mayfield, Love level it would be worth the pick, especially if we get a few cheap years out of him.
A 13th pick could have a huge impact. See Emmanwori last year. Picked at 35th. His impact was critical to their Super Bowl Run. Just to mention one recent rookie.
First round busts are common at just about every position. Especially in weaker blue chip draft classes.
But in regards to QBs, they are usually:
1) Selected by bad teams and thrust into the starting lineup way before they are ready,
2) Experience 1 or more OC changes early due to coaching turnover,
3) Coming from college offenses that had very little in the way of NFL concepts,
4) Drafted moreso for their athletic ability than their mental processing,
5) And/or have maturity issues.
Just run down the list of them and my guess is that you'll find that most, if not all, experienced at the very least 1 or 2 of the 5 listed issues.
The 13th pick could have a huge immediate impact. That player could have also have a minimal impact or be a bust. No one knows but the assumption always appears to be the former for some reason.
Emmanwori was critical to the Seahawks Super Bowl run. But, no one seems to point how the other players selected ahead of him that didn't have as much of an impact on their teams.
IMO, if the team were All-In or Bust, that 13th pick should have been traded for a veteran. That makes more sense to me than hoping for an immediate impact from a rookie which is less likely in comparison.