Uh oh. We're projected not to make Playoffs.
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Oh, no, I'm so scared of the national "expert" opinions.
Seriously, these writers need to - and forgive me for using a British slang term - stop taking the fuckin' piss.
Seriously, these writers need to - and forgive me for using a British slang term - stop taking the fuckin' piss.
RamsOfCastamere
I drink things, and know nothing
Cynthia's projections are based on an algorithm vs gut feeling. She may need to tweak it since she has the Cardinals making it over the Rams and Seahawks, and the Eagles making the playoffs.
Anybody that thinks the Cardinals are going to win more than 6 games has their head up their ass.
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Hey don't shoot the messenger. My title to this thread was indeed sarcastic.
Don't get all scared and worried my Rams brothers.
Don't get all scared and worried my Rams brothers.
Analytics expert Cynthia Frelund took data from the past 10 NFL campaigns to create historical references for personnel, scheme and matchups, identifying factors that are proven to lead to wins (or losses). She vetted the correlations with a bunch of real football people (e.g., coaches) and had her math checked out by real math people (e.g., PhDs) to make sure the model reflected reality as much as possible. Then she compared this season's personnel, schemes and matchups -- with the vetted mathematical weightings -- and simulated the season more than a million times, producing a ceiling, floor and projected win total for all 32 teams. The ceiling-to-floor range is something to home in on -- a big discrepancy means the team is projected to play in more close games.
Without further ado, here are the projected win totals for NFC teams in the 2020 campaign, ordered from most to least wins, with playoff berths noted. Check back Tuesday for the AFC rundown.
I like Cynthia's work. She takes it very seriously and my brief look at this article looks like she did what she attempted to do.
Without further ado, here are the projected win totals for NFC teams in the 2020 campaign, ordered from most to least wins, with playoff berths noted. Check back Tuesday for the AFC rundown.
I like Cynthia's work. She takes it very seriously and my brief look at this article looks like she did what she attempted to do.
More of the same canned analysis here, pulled from the shelves of modern journalism.
[yawn]
Beware of those who pretend to be able to predict anything using analytics.
The chance of Kurt Warner leading the Rams to a Super Bowl was 0% and would be the same in Cynthia's model with these variables.
It's garbage in the form of intelligence. Too many factors can affect games, the injury factor alone cannot be predicted.
The chance of Kurt Warner leading the Rams to a Super Bowl was 0% and would be the same in Cynthia's model with these variables.
It's garbage in the form of intelligence. Too many factors can affect games, the injury factor alone cannot be predicted.
Doesn't take into account rookies or former backups stepping up, name players tanking or scheme adjustment.
That's a MUCH bigger model than she's looking at now.
That's a MUCH bigger model than she's looking at now.
The big problem here is that analytics rely heavily on statistics, and statistics has never been a good tool for predicting the future. Statistics can highlight trends (linear patterns) and those trends may continue if the salient variables remain the same. The variables almost never remain the same, so you end up with statisticians (or analysts) attempting to insert their variables in 'formulaic slots' where they simply do not fit cleanly. The statistician (analyst) may attempt to portray his|her findings as being mathematically rigorous, but statistics is simply not that mathematically rigorous at all for predictions. Fuzzy set logic is much more mathematically rigorous than statistics, and it is a shame more analysts fail to employ that tool for future predictions.
Los Angeles Rams
Wins 8.2
Ceiling: 9.4
Floor: 6.7
So worse than last year? 8 Wins?
Too much wieght on player losses Gurley, Cooks, Weddle, Mathews must have been weighted heavily.
Which all really weren't a huge impact last year.
If we tank it's either the OL or the Defense being unable to stop the run.
But seems like we should be better than last year.
Wins 8.2
Ceiling: 9.4
Floor: 6.7
So worse than last year? 8 Wins?
Too much wieght on player losses Gurley, Cooks, Weddle, Mathews must have been weighted heavily.
Which all really weren't a huge impact last year.
If we tank it's either the OL or the Defense being unable to stop the run.
But seems like we should be better than last year.
nighttrain
Legend
"If we tank it's either the OL or the Defense being unable to stop the run.
But seems like we should be better than last year. "
cannot emphasis these two issues enough
train
But seems like we should be better than last year. "
cannot emphasis these two issues enough
train