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Matt Miller's Scouting Notebook: What Happened to NFL Draft Pick Value?
Matt MillerOctober 18, 2019
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There was a time, not too long ago, when
NFL front offices wouldn't part with draft picks for anything. Want to trade for a starting-caliber quarterback? Better not ask for a first-round pick in exchange for him.
Case in point: The San Francisco 49ers acquired Jimmy Garoppolo, a highly coveted quarterback who was on the last year of his rookie deal, for a second-round pick. That's it, because the 49ers and every other team weren't willing to part with first-round picks even though a multitude of football minds knew Garoppolo was a starting quarterback. First-round picks were kept at all costs, and this was October 2017.
Then something changed. NFL teams started sending picks off for players at a high rate. Kansas City Chiefs general manager Brett Veach helped start the trend by sending late-round picks in exchange for formerly highly valued players such as linebacker Reggie Ragland (acquired for a conditional 2019 fourth-rounder) and offensive lineman Cameron Erving (acquired for a 2018 fifth-rounder).
The idea of sending Day 3 draft picks for players who were either proven or had high potential in their pre-draft reports took off. We still see moves like this today, as evidenced by the Los Angeles Rams trading a 2021 fifth-rounder for center Austin Corbett, who was the No. 33 overall pick in the 2018 draft.
Why, though, has the NFL become more trade-friendly in the last few seasons?
Former Cleveland Browns CEO Joe Banner believes it's because of the miss rate in the draft: "With teams only hitting on 50 percent of first-round picks and virtually no team without cap room, the value of a proven veteran has gone up and an unknown draft pick has gone down. When cap was tight, teams needed to hit on cheaper draft picks to be able to afford veterans. Now you can build a much higher percentage of your team with established players."
The Rams are attempting to load up for a Super Bowl run with this mindset. The Chiefs traded for cornerback Kendall Fuller and defensive end Frank Clark as huge parts of their defensive identity. The Cleveland Browns traded for wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. in a massive move.
Even though the results haven't been immediate, these remain some of the NFL's most promising teams. They’re shifting into win-now mode by being aggressive in the trade market.
They're able to do that because a good number of young and aggressive general managers are viewing draft picks as risky. Would you rather be the Rams with two late first-round picks that might not make huge impacts or the best young cornerback in football, Jalen Ramsey, formerly of the Jacksonville Jaguars?
For many general managers, taking the proven asset over the unproven value of a draft pick is the way to go. Which begs the question: Who is next?