Tomlin and the "never a losing season fallacy"

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He was hired in 2007 and he's never had a losing season. That sounds awesome (at first), and it's been used to paint him in a very favorable light (rightly so) quite often by media folks. The question should be asked, "what does that mean?" Aren't double digit win seasons the goal? He's had his share of those too, 11 times. But most likely, after this season, he'll have 8 seasons with less than 10 wins. And with a closer look at the most recent past, he's only had 3 double digit win seasons in the last 7 (3 of 8 after this year). I'm pretty sure we've never heard Mike Tomlin claim no losing seasons is something to hang your hat on. That's probably because he doesn't "toot his own horn" or aspiring to mediocrity is not a good look. In the past 18 years that Tomlin has been a head coach (2007-2024), 58 teams with winning records have not made the playoffs. That is an average of more than 3 per year. How does 9-7, .500 or 9-8 look along side that fact?

When we factor in Tomlins post season record, he (and his "no losing seasons") look a lot better. 18 years, 12 postseasons, 2 Conference Championships, 1 Super Bowl win. But again, what have you don't for me lately? Since losing the SB to the Packers in his 4th season (read: 2 Super Bowls in his first 4 years, ala Nick Siriani), his postseason record looks like this.....14 years, 9 postseason appearances, 3-9 record, 0 for his last 5 (over his last 8 years, soon to be 9). He took a team that had gone 149-90-1 over the previous 15 seasons under Bill Cowher, with 2 SB appearances and a SB win (2005) and kept them more than relevant for a decade. Is it now an old message he's delivering that doesn't seem to resonate in today's NFL or with today's NFL players? Ownership is going to have to decide by March when his option year (2027) has to be picked up or not.

Like most things, it's more complicated than that. Why would the Steelers pick up an option year with the recent record they've had? A symbolic company gold watch? If they passed on the option, would Tomlin want to coach as a lame duck in 2026? He didn't forget how to coach, so it's got to run deeper than that. The Steelers front office rarely dove into the free agency market. They preferred drafting and development, mostly on the defensive side of the ball. Lately that's changed but their choices have not been the greatest. In the past 3 years they've brought in 3 quarterbacks. Two close to collecting social security than And the trades they've made reek of desperation. Perhaps as Roethlisberger recently said, both the Steelers and Tomlin would do well with a breath of fresh air. Pittsburgh needs to find a young and/or bright offensive mind. The next Ben Johnson might be too much to ask but that McCarthy guy might do well, bringing not only offensive but hometown flavor to the team. Tomlin would be great in NY where the Giants are in desperate need of some structure and discipline. Of course they'd also need a smart young OC to help Dart ascend properly.

Now watch the Steelers go into Baltimore today and beat the doors off the Ravens!!!!! :laugh4:

Article on option year
 
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It is funny, I was thinking about Tomlin's no losing seasons the other day. When the Rams were really bad, having a coach with Tomlin's record sounded great. Now that the rams are better, I wouldn't be happy with Tomlin's record. I guess it is all about perspective and expectations.
 
Tomlin has done barely enough the last 5 years to keep his job. I think the steelers move on at the end of fhe season
 
It is funny, I was thinking about Tomlin's no losing seasons the other day. When the Rams were really bad, having a coach with Tomlin's record sounded great. Now that the rams are better, I wouldn't be happy with Tomlin's record. I guess it is all about perspective and expectations.
Yeah, during the Linehan and Spags days we woulda gladly taken what Tomlin is doing. When we got Fisher it was better but at some point you want more than 7-9. We're now thankful they took a chance on a 30 year old prodigy. 8 of 9 winning seasons. Most likely gonna be 7 of 9 playoff appearances. Along with multiple playoff wins and a championship.
 
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Well if Shula ends up with a gig I'm all for Tomlin coming in as our DC. :laugh1:
 
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He hasn't had a losing season there's no fallacy to that. He hasn't however been good enough the last several years. On another forum we were talking about him and they'll likely mutually part ways and the next team that gets him will either get a motivated coach to improve especially if he's got a GM to push him. Or it's more of the same the last many years.
 
The Steelers have had a tough time replacing Big Ben.
QB purgatory is brutal.

He’s a good coach, give Tomlin a good QB and he’ll win another championship.

Rodgers and Wilson are washed up.
They took their lumps with Pickett, which didn’t work out.

They’ve had 12 QBs since Big Ben.

The fact that he hasn’t had a losing season is a big deal imo
 
The Steelers have had a tough time replacing Big Ben.
QB purgatory is brutal.

He’s a good coach, give Tomlin a good QB and he’ll win another championship.

Rodgers and Wilson are washed up.
They took their lumps with Pickett, which didn’t work out.

They’ve had 12 QBs since Big Ben.

The fact that he hasn’t had a losing season is a big deal imo
I saw a tweet the other day and found it funny. Wilson through the same number of games as Rodgers had better passing stats than ARod. :D
 
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The thing with Tomlin is there are probably 15-17 owners in the NFL that would kill for the kind of consistent “success” he’s had. If you told the owners of the Cardinals, Saints, Jets, Titans, Browns, Raiders, etc that their next head coaching hire would average 10-7 over the next 15 years, they’d sign up for it in a heartbeat. But you’d think the Steelers would have higher expectations than 10-7 every year. I get why their fans are frustrated. Ravens too.
 
The thing with Tomlin is there are probably 15-17 owners in the NFL that would kill for the kind of consistent “success” he’s had. If you told the owners of the Cardinals, Saints, Jets, Titans, Browns, Raiders, etc that their next head coaching hire would average 10-7 over the next 15 years, they’d sign up for it in a heartbeat. But you’d think the Steelers would have higher expectations than 10-7 every year. I get why their fans are frustrated. Ravens too.

It's all perspective. Like others said, under Spags, 9-7 would be gold. But under McVay, we want more rings. The standard is different. And don't forget this, we have a damn good owner with deep pockets. Kroenke hired good people and stays out of their business (unlike Jerry Jones)
 
The thing with Tomlin is there are probably 15-17 owners in the NFL that would kill for the kind of consistent “success” he’s had. If you told the owners of the Cardinals, Saints, Jets, Titans, Browns, Raiders, etc that their next head coaching hire would average 10-7 over the next 15 years, they’d sign up for it in a heartbeat. But you’d think the Steelers would have higher expectations than 10-7 every year. I get why their fans are frustrated. Ravens too.
I think you can win with Tomlin as HC. He just needs a better influx of talent on offense. The man has had to deal with a steaming pile of shit on that side of the ball for a long time.

This is a down year for his defense as well and I don't like their secondary. But the strange thing is they're in the lead for their shitty division at 7-6.
 
It's extraordinarily difficult to never have losing seasons in the NFL when you've been a coach for a long time. McVay has been a HC for 9 years and has a losing season. It's an impressive accomplishment by Tomlin. No matter who Pittsburgh has trotted out at QB, Tomlin has managed to put together a .500 or better season. People can criticize Tomlin. He's not a perfect HC. But he's a darn good HC. And let's be frank, Pittsburgh hasn't had a good or great QB since the end of the 2018 season. Big Ben missed basically all of 2019 with an injury and then was a shell of himself in 2020 and 2021. Tomlin has made chicken salad out of chicken crap at the QB position for the past few years.
 
I think you can win with Tomlin as HC. He just needs a better influx of talent on offense. The man has had to deal with a steaming pile of shit on that side of the ball for a long time.

This is a down year for his defense as well and I don't like their secondary. But the strange thing is they're in the lead for their shitty division at 7-6.
The problem with coaches like Tomlin is that he has to hire a good OC and when he gets one, he ultimately will lose him as the guy leaves to be a HC. Then he has to find another one. Overall though he is obviously outstanding, just in an offensive league, it's tough for defensive coaches to win consistently.
 
The problem with coaches like Tomlin is that he has to hire a good OC and when he gets one, he ultimately will lose him as the guy leaves to be a HC. Then he has to find another one. Overall though he is obviously outstanding, just in an offensive league, it's tough for defensive coaches to win consistently.
Good point. This is why more teams are following the McVay route and want their HC to be the offensive playcaller to build consistency.
 
The Steelers are also known for not really spending big in FA, or making any crazy trades. They've caught up with the times, a bit.....but IMO, just enough to not be an outlier. They are still one of the more conservative operations, if not the most conservative. Certainly the most conservative functional organization in the NFL.

Do we make the Super Bowl without the frankly, INSANE 2017/2018 off-season? Traded Robert Quinn, Alec Ogletree, let TruJo walk - these guys had a TON of production on our 2017 team. We turned over the team, and started going crazy with trades, acquiring Cooks and Peters for our first and second round picks.

Then we traded for Ramsey. Then Stafford - without those two, and then Von, we don't win the Super Bowl.

So go back in time and don't make any of those trades....build through the draft, keep developing Goff - and mind you, every single team misses in the draft, so we have to be realistic about only half of those picks we kept working out.

We would be a better version of the Steelers - which, for the record, is basically what the Bills are. For us it would be because of McVay, for them its because of Josh Allen.

Point is.....no risk it, no biscuit is a saying for a reason. And that's not REALLY a Tomlin thing....that is in the Steelers DNA.