The Eye Test is Lying: Why This Defense is Better Than You Think.

[Ramit]

Here is my take, and I’d ask you to at least hear me out.

Overall, this defense is playing very well. Specifically, the secondary is performing at a much higher level than the "eye test" suggests, and I have the data to back that up.

First, let’s consider the context of our schedule. We faced a league-high strength of schedule, which included playing eventual playoff teams eight different times. Despite that gauntlet, we were incredibly competitive; we held a lead of at least 10 points at some stage of the second half in nine separate games.

Because our offense was elite—averaging 30.5 PPG—opponents were forced to throw the ball constantly just to keep pace. This wasn't just happening against the "bad" teams on our schedule, either. In at least half of our games, opponents had to abandon the run and lean on the pass out of pure necessity.

This context is vital when reconciling the discrepancy between advanced metrics and basic box score statistics. Look at how the rankings shift when you add context:

Offensive DVOA: 1st Overall (1st Passing, 1st Rushing)
EPA/Play: 1st Overall (3rd Passing, 11th Rushing)

Defensive DVOA: 3rd Overall (5th Passing, 6th Rushing)
EPA/Play: 10th Overall (10th Passing, 13th Rushing)

If you only look at total yards allowed, the defense ranks 19th. However, advanced statistics like DVOA take the situation and outcome of every single snap and compare them to the league average for that specific scenario. They account for the fact that we played a brutal schedule and forced opponents into high-volume passing situations.

Here is the key: We blitzed at the second-lowest rate in the league, yet we maintained the 4th-highest pressure percentage. While it’s easy to credit the defensive line for this, the secondary deserves massive praise. A pass rush cannot "get home" if the DBs aren't locked on, especially when you only rush four.

Regarding the eye test, we have to acknowledge that recency bias is real—and it correlates directly with the injury to Quentin Lake. I remember the Rams being 2nd in PPG allowed at one point before he went down.

All that being said, and homerism aside, it does seem like we have a handful of cornerbacks who are either JAGs or barely above average. That position group would absolutely benefit the most from the addition of a true difference-maker.

Pinch yourselves: Neither this defense nor its CBs are as bad as they seem!

 

[muggmeister]

The eye test showed that Lake, Durant and Curl couldn't cover shit last night. In fact, Curl ain't covered shit all year. The reason hes 2nd in team tackles because the guy he is supposed to cover is ALWAYS open, but at least hes there to make the tackle. Our entire secondary needs to be overhauled this off-season. Free agent corner, 2 DBs drafted in the first 3 rounds. There, I said it like it is, or at least what I see.

 

[OnceARam]

What happened to Witherspoon last night??? He was out there for a few plays and them seemed to get hurt... Any word?

We really need him out there contributing and taking some pressure off of everyone else.

 

[OnceARam]

The eye test showed that Lake, Durant and Curl couldn't cover shit last night. In fact, Curl ain't covered shit all year. The reason hes 2nd in team tackles because the guy he is supposed to cover is ALWAYS open, but at least hes there to make the tackle. Our entire secondary needs to be overhauled this off-season. Free agent corner, 2 DBs drafted in the first 3 rounds. There, I said it like it is, or at least what I see.

Lake is coming off of injury. Durant is supposed to be a slot CB and is covering for guys that are hurt. And Curl is a run stopping safety and really shouldn`t be matched up one on one.

Our opponents know all of this and are going at our weaknesses. The draft is a long way off.

 

[PARAM]

A couple of things.

I agree, our secondary did not look good last night. But Carolina has some BIG receivers who are also talented. And Young played better than he did the first time around. Lake was definitely rusty. On that last Carolina TD, Curl was in good position but Young made a helluva throw. Sometimes, you just have to tip your cap to the opponent. Pointing to tackles and equating that to coverage talent isn't accurate. Check any teams stat sheet and your going to see either their best LB or S is leading the team in tackles. Going by that standard for coverage, Kyle Hamilton sucks.

Evero is a pretty good DC. Gave the Rams fits as the game progressed. Thank god we have an MVP QB and some talented receivers. I gotta believe, sans the fumble, Stafford does the same thing and we get the same result in week 13.

 

[Spider2YB]

Only time they’ve allowed fewer than 20 points over the last 7 games was week 14 vs Arizona. I think the defense overachieved earlier in the season, and what we’ve got the last 2 months of the season will probably be what we get for the rest of it.

This teams strength is it’s offense. We need the offense scoring at least 35 the rest of the way to have a real shot at this thing.

 

[Ramit]

Let me clarify that I'm not trying to say that this defense is all that and a bad of chips. I'm just pointing out that it's not AS bad as it has looked from time to time.

It's a complimentary unit that is good enough to win it all as long as the offense is doing its thing.

 

[muggmeister]

A couple of things.

I agree, our secondary did not look good last night. But Carolina has some BIG receivers who are also talented. And Young played better than he did the first time around. Lake was definitely rusty. On that last Carolina TD, Curl was in good position but Young made a helluva throw. Sometimes, you just have to tip your cap to the opponent. Pointing to tackles and equating that to coverage talent isn't accurate. Check any teams stat sheet and your going to see either their best LB or S is leading the team in tackles. Going by that standard for coverage, Kyle Hamilton sucks.

Evero is a pretty good DC. Gave the Rams fits as the game progressed. Thank god we have an MVP QB and some talented receivers. I gotta believe, sans the fumble, Stafford does the same thing and we get the same result in week 13.

I haven't missed a Rams game in years. Sorry if I dont paint the same rosy picture of Curl in coverage.

 

[12intheBox]

The eye test showed that Lake, Durant and Curl couldn't cover shit last night. In fact, Curl ain't covered shit all year. The reason hes 2nd in team tackles because the guy he is supposed to cover is ALWAYS open, but at least hes there to make the tackle. Our entire secondary needs to be overhauled this off-season. Free agent corner, 2 DBs drafted in the first 3 rounds. There, I said it like it is, or at least what I see.

Curl had a decent showing in the all pro voting this year with 9 points and 3 first place votes. I know all pro voting isn’t everything but it isn’t nothing either.

 

[kmramsfan]

Let me clarify that I'm not trying to say that this defense is all that and a bad of chips. I'm just pointing out that it's not AS bad as it has looked from time to time.

It's a complimentary unit that is good enough to win it all as long as the offense is doing its thing.

Also, there were 3 DB's who normally contribute (except for maybe Kendrick ) on the inactive list yesterday.

 

[OldSchool]

Curl is a box safety not usually used much in coverage hence why he has a lot of tackles. Also we had 3 CB last night inactive so he was asked to cover more than normal.

Also there were a lot of people touting Forbes and Witherspoon as both being CB1 type players and they simply are not. We need a couple new CB this off season in a bad way. That's all that's holding this defense back.

We held a pretty good run game with 2 dynamic backs to 3.8 ypc and that's with their QB getting 3 carries for 24 yards. Eight pressures and 2 sacks against an elusive QB could have been better but it was enough especially on that last drive to seal the game. Defense isn't shit like some claim but neither is it great. Just like the offense and both are better than the ST.

 

[PARAM]

I haven't missed a Rams game in years. Sorry if I dont paint the same rosy picture of Curl in coverage.

No need to apologize.....we're all entitled to our own opinion. Here's another.....don't hold your breath on the entire secondary getting overhauled for next year. BTW, if attendance over the years was an indication of impeccable knowledge, we'd all be fucking experts!

 

[Memphis Ram]

I'd say that the stats are lying.

But first, what do they say regarding the last 5 or so games?

Is it possible the competition has improved? Or that Shula's defense has been figured out?

 

[Cjcinec]

The defense might be better than what they have shown lately but they simply aren’t playing well so they are what the score reflects. Rams defense is designed to play with a lead. Get up on teams offensively and make them one dimensional and then feast off the pass rush. While the offense has been scoring points the defense has struggled to get off the field. Too many explosive plays allowed and playing relatively soft coverage shells to try to prevent the explosive plays. Mobile QB’s give the edge rushers fits and extending plays. They had moments last night when they showed more cohesiveness play but still have too many breakdowns in coverage. I think they need to be more aggressive like they were in finishing the game more often. As for all the metrics, they might have some value I still believe that the eye test doesn’t lie. You know when you see good defensive play and I have seen it from this group earlier in the season but I have not seen it since the 4th Quarter in the last Seattle game.

 

[Tumak61]

Defense is okay. Like how stout we can be against the run, and we can contain the edge mostly with the speed of Young and Verse. Outside is where we really struggle. Our corners are below average and that's just the way it is. I think you'll see offenses attack us deep on the outside and with comebacks as we go thru these playoffs. We need to outscore teams if we're going to advance.

 

[FrantikRam]

There were a few plays where coverage was great (the Panthers last TD - Curl was right there with Coker).

Two of their TDs were bolstered by some pretty ticky tacky PI calls - considering they didn't call a single defensive secondary penalty against Carolina (and we saw the egregious one that Greg Olsen pointed to where Adams got slung down)....you can make a case both were fouls, but similar plays to both both are constantly let go AND if they aren't calling it both ways, neither should have been called IMO.

What we lack on defense is a closer. And while the CB room needs an upgrade, the DL playing against a backup LT and G....against an already average OL....has me wanting an upgrade at edge

 

[majrleaged]

Stats of any kind can me made to make or break an argument. Also stats over the whole season tend to dilute how good or how bad the D really is. Last year our D after the first 5 games or so started to get better and many times carried the team. The stats showed they weren't as good as they were playing at the end. This year is the opposite.

Based on last years performance the decision makers thought they could get by with this back end, but this season we have had some very key injuries and the D front isn't close to last year's output. So here we are. This year the offense has to carry the team. Sometimes the D, if it isn't having to come out after multiple 3 and outs by the offense, can and will come thru.

The Offense has yet to put together a complete game. We need them to figure that out right now or they are going to fall short.

 

[Jacobarch]

Here is my take, and I’d ask you to at least hear me out.

Overall, this defense is playing very well. Specifically, the secondary is performing at a much higher level than the "eye test" suggests, and I have the data to back that up.

First, let’s consider the context of our schedule. We faced a league-high strength of schedule, which included playing eventual playoff teams eight different times. Despite that gauntlet, we were incredibly competitive; we held a lead of at least 10 points at some stage of the second half in nine separate games.

Because our offense was elite—averaging 30.5 PPG—opponents were forced to throw the ball constantly just to keep pace. This wasn't just happening against the "bad" teams on our schedule, either. In at least half of our games, opponents had to abandon the run and lean on the pass out of pure necessity.

This context is vital when reconciling the discrepancy between advanced metrics and basic box score statistics. Look at how the rankings shift when you add context:

Offensive DVOA: 1st Overall (1st Passing, 1st Rushing)
EPA/Play: 1st Overall (3rd Passing, 11th Rushing)

Defensive DVOA: 3rd Overall (5th Passing, 6th Rushing)
EPA/Play: 10th Overall (10th Passing, 13th Rushing)

If you only look at total yards allowed, the defense ranks 19th. However, advanced statistics like DVOA take the situation and outcome of every single snap and compare them to the league average for that specific scenario. They account for the fact that we played a brutal schedule and forced opponents into high-volume passing situations.

Here is the key: We blitzed at the second-lowest rate in the league, yet we maintained the 4th-highest pressure percentage. While it’s easy to credit the defensive line for this, the secondary deserves massive praise. A pass rush cannot "get home" if the DBs aren't locked on, especially when you only rush four.

Regarding the eye test, we have to acknowledge that recency bias is real—and it correlates directly with the injury to Quentin Lake. I remember the Rams being 2nd in PPG allowed at one point before he went down.

All that being said, and homerism aside, it does seem like we have a handful of cornerbacks who are either JAGs or barely above average. That position group would absolutely benefit the most from the addition of a true difference-maker.

Pinch yourselves: Neither this defense nor its CBs are as bad as they seem!

There's another stat floating around that the rams were first in pass defense in the first 8 weeks. And 31st the last 9. Ill have to pull it up and post it.

Opposing offenses have figured out Shulas tendencies and shula hasn't adjusted. Its why the Hawks, Atlanta, Carolina, lions, and other teams have put up major points against this defense later in the season. I agree that shula is somewhat hamstrung by our DBs and their lack of talent. But other teams do more with less imo. And I honestly won't be sad to see him go if he gets an HC job somewhere

 

[OldSchool]

but this season we have had some very key injuries and the D front isn't close to last year's output.

Just on this bit:

Opposing QB's completion %, yards per completion and TD's are down from 2024. We have more sacks, pressures and hurries. Also rushing yards per attempt is down.

By those numbers the front 7 is doing better than last year though most of those are marginal improvements except for rushing.

 

[OldSchool]

There's another stat floating around that the rams were first in pass defense in the first 8 weeks. And 31st the last 9. Ill have to pull it up and post it.

Opposing offenses have figured out Shulas tendencies and shula hasn't adjusted. Its why the Hawks, Atlanta, Carolina, lions, and other teams have put up major points against this defense later in the season. I agree that shula is somewhat hamstrung by our DBs and their lack of talent. But other teams do more with less imo. And I honestly won't be sad to see him go if he gets an HC job somewhere

How much does Lake going out contribute to the pass defense decline? Personally I'd say it was huge though I'm also one of the most vocal that we need an upgrade at CB and have for a few years.