The end of the gasoline powered car?

[Mackeyser]

Oh, so there is ownership of vehicles, and not a membership in a leasing club? I was actually asking Mack, Les. Thanks for your view. That would be the ideal scenario. There are a lot of variables here. I am anxious to here what Mack has to say about this. I know he has thought a lot about what the future in this area might look like. Maybe you have too.

I think with the state of the economy (and with wealth continuing to go upwards...not gonna go into the math, but a reverse Robin Hood is currently happening), people will become less and less able to afford the kinds of things we afford now.

So, if we're going to continue to be consumer driven, how does that work for transportation?

Well, most of the time, for most people the car just sits. Isn't needed. That's a TON of resources in raw materials and labor just wasting away doing nothing.

Moreover, remember what I said about insurance? It's a LOT cheaper for leasing companies to insure a fleet of auto-driving vehicles than for an individual to get insurance, even on the same vehicle. That goes for any insurance, really.

Now, not gonna get started on people's dogma, I'm just looking at what IS (I take inspiration from economist Mark Blyth for much of this). What is is that many, many millennials will be faced with choices. Do they either a) pay for college, b) buy a home, or c) own a car and potentially travel. INCREASINGLY, more and more understand that they won't be able to have it all like most baby boomers nor will they have most like Gen X. This is why fully 50% under 30 have a dim view of capitalism and I'm seeing it with my 4 millennial kids that they embrace sharing to a MUCH greater degree than any generation in 100 years. Moreover, they seem to be better at saving and much, MUCH more conscious of waste, be it time, energy or materials.

That means that as the younger generation gains some buying power (not nearly what the previous two generations possessed on a median basis) they will be far more circumspect and willing to try new things.

What that means is having like a subscription or membership to auto-driving cars that are routed much like a personal, automated Uber or Lyft (Uber is in fact right now trying to make such a thing happen as are Tesla, Volvo, Ford, GM, Toyota and almost every other car manufacturer as well as Hertz and other leasing companies). This model already exists in Europe and is growing rapidly.

To address your concerns about liberty, it requires understanding that every generation defines it differently. Not being a slave to the corporatocracy is considered to be a much greater freedom by many in this latest generation than not having the keys to simply go where one wants to go the minute one gets the idea. My kids have all basically worked out informal ride sharing networks among friends and family, so a subscription or membership model would actually give them MORE control and MORE freedom without learning how to drive (I can't tell you how many millennials I've talked to that have NO INTEREST in learning to drive and are actually and viscerally against learning. I don't remotely understand so I'm not a good resource to explain it)

I realize that there are generalities in this and it's on purpose. The point is that there will be a tremendous demand and market among the youth and when the autonomous driving systems reach scale, essentially the market and civic planning requirements will require the rest of us to adapt... as in, no insurance for you or me or no human driving in the city for you or me. Which will mean... something else, be it public transportation or one of these subscription type services.

As for the specifics, be it from a localized motor pool or some other logistical model, the market will determine the winner based on efficiency and execution. In other words...we'll see. Sometimes the better ideas don't win. VHS was the inferior technology but executed better than the Betamax because they allowed porn. True story. What we end up with will be a result of a combination of factors from design, execution, timing and like in many cases, a bit of dumb luck.

What we won't see are flying cars unless they can affordably run them autonomously and even then, they'd have to justify the cost of the application.

 

[dieterbrock]

Jeez, 20 years ago a cell phone was used just for phone calls and your home phone was connected to a 56k modem so you could get on line. Now smart phones carry more technology than the warehouse of computers NASA used to put a man on the moon.
I can’t imagine what 20 years from now will look like auto wise but I am certain it will be rather unlike the common gas guzzler of today.

 

[LesBaker]

56k modem

I remember upgrading from a 14.4K to a 28.8K.

I was amazed.

 

[dieterbrock]

I remember upgrading from a 14.4K to a 28.8K.

I was amazed.

I was trying to figure out a way to type the sound of the modem connecting, or attempting to....

 

[LesBaker]

For you my friend

 

[Dieter the Brock]

Oh I get it.
A tone of sizzle.....at some point it has to be usable.
I did track out a trip from Nevada to central ca and from Nevada to Denver Co. Could make the trip to Ca with no problem. Charging stations you could sync up with a restaurant stop. The longer the trip, the harder it gets.
Didn't find any in the wide open stretches of Wyoming on the way to Denver.
That was a while ago, may have changed since then.

I saw a ton of charging stations at a Holiday Inn Express in Willcox AZ but nothing coming into Texas. I was on the look out at each Cracker Barrel stop I made!

 

[fearsomefour]

I saw a ton of charging stations at a Holiday Inn Express in Willcox AZ but nothing coming into Texas. I was on the look out at each Cracker Barrel stop I made!

Along the central coast of Ca they seem to some aligned with Dennys and Chevrons.

 

[Ramhusker]

I won't hold my breath on electric quite yet. Its time has not come. It will get here but we are a decade away is my gut feeling.

 

[CGI_Ram]

I won't hold my breath on electric quite yet. Its time has not come. It will get here but we are a decade away is my gut feeling.

The technology curve suggests sooner, Husker. That’s the point of the video (which is long, but worth watching). It illustrates, with data, exactly the curve we are on.

 

[Mackeyser]

The question isn’t “are electrics viable?” (They already are more than viable for most drivers), but rather at what point they attain critical mass in the market.

I posit that their mass adoption will coincide not with the availability of charging stations. Instead, I see their proliferation being tied to the adoption of autonomous driving solutions.

People will demand their local infrastructure meet their needs which will include charging stations.

Think of it like this: smart phone adoption accelerated at an exponential rate such that in a few years they became the dominant mobile phone type. Much of that is because the feature set opened new opportunities for business and personal use.

I foresee the same model of adoption of electric cars once the autonomous driving systems are in place. The pieces are already there from lane departure systems, VORAD object detection and avoidance systems, and a bunch of other technologies that will become integrated into a singular system that will define “autonomous “.

 

[Riverumbbq]

5) As for the batteries, I honestly don't think Lithium Ion is the be all. It's not the end. I think there's a next step that will exponentially increase stored capacity as well as deliverable power.
So basically, in the not too distant future, cars won't likely be "cars". We may not even recognize the shape as a "car" per se.
And yes, currently, it's a lot of mining. I dunno where the next battery comes from. Hopefully, they are all more ecologically viable than the Nickel Metal Hydride batteries... ugh. Lithium Ion is better, but still.

That said, we desperately need to upgrade our grid as it is, so I don't see this as an issue.

A couple things here, ... as of today we are looking at hybrid vehicles being part small piston engine & electric, tomorrows hybrids may be more solar & electric motors/batteries. Solar cars have been invented, and once we reach a future similar to the one you have painted where self-driving cars take on a different shape, solar will have a greater impact as well as allowing for longer distances between re-charging. If we are being taxied around in driverless boxy 4, 6 & 8 door vehicles with a large flat roof, solar becomes more practical, and eventually we'll likely see an energy absorbent paint which offers even more surface area for solar applications. Obviously, batteries will still be necessary, but solar during daylight hours may decrease battery consumption by a fair amount.

I believe the video may explain why there is a lesser need in the future for a completely revamped and extremely expensive new national grid system, as more residences and commercial enterprises are lessening their dependence due to rooftop solar, at least in the west. Major grid systems should become smaller and more regional, where a lottery or bid system is created perhaps in a manner like the way we sell cable rights, oil exploration rights or radio waves. The north-east may rely more on off-shore wind power, the west, mid-west & much of the south on solar & wind, the old nation-wide grid system is quickly becoming obsolete. Hydro & the few remaining nuclear plants will take on a much smaller role and oil & coal are likely fazed out over the shorter term. Natural gas will be the one remaining carbon competitor for local energy dollars imo.

 

[Mackeyser]

A couple things here, ... as of today we are looking at hybrid vehicles being part small piston engine & electric, tomorrows hybrids may be more solar & electric motors/batteries. Solar cars have been invented, and once we reach a future similar to the one you have painted where self-driving cars take on a different shape, solar will have a greater impact. If we are being taxied around in driverless boxy 4, 6 & 8 door vehicles with a large flat roof, solar becomes more practical, and eventually we'll likely see an energy absorbent paint which offers even more surface area for solar applications. Obviously, batteries will still be necessary for both applications, but solar during daylight hours may decrease battery consumption by a fair amount.

I believe the video may explain why there is a lesser need in the future for a completely revamped and extremely expensive new national grid system, as more residences and commercial enterprises are lessening their dependence due to rooftop solar, at least in the west. Major grid systems should become smaller and more regional, where a lottery or bid system is created perhaps in a manner like the way we sell cable rights, oil exploration rights or radio waves. The north-east may rely more on off-shore wind power, the west, mid-west & much of the south on solar & wind, the old nation-wide grid system is quickly becoming obsolete. Hydro & the few remaining nuclear plants will take on a much smaller role and oil & coal are likely fazed out over the shorter term. Natural gas will be the one remaining carbon competitor for local energy dollars imo.

I agree with much of that.

And the guy in the video is essentially channeling what I've been saying for quite awhile now. It's why I predicted that the iPod and iPhone would trounce other tech... Jobs understood convergence better than almost anyone in the modern era.

People forget how onerous the process was to buy music or to install an application. And does anyone remember the early days of Android where the market was ridiculously fragmented based on silly sounding Android OS names? The average person just wasn't interested in mastering or even participating in that learning curve. It's why for a long time, there were lines outside Apple stores for products. They understood convergence. Now, I like Tim Cook, but he understands it less so and the last few years have been Apple becoming big at the expense of the future and they are coming dangerously close to Kodak territory. I see a market disruption coming in that space, too.

As for solar, I have mixed feelings on it. I think it will be part of the energy matrix, but not dominant.

I just saw a video, a TEDtalk from a Mennonite, pacifist, anti-nuclear activist that there's a groundswell among hardcore climate activists that Thorium fueled nuclear is the way to go even over solar and hydro. That people like him as well as Jim Hanson (I think I got his name right, he's the scientist who was among the earliest to talk about man-made climate change) are advocating for Thorium fueled nuclear is really something and, quite honestly, based on the data, it's hard to argue with him.

I do take umbrage with his lack of concern for waste, even as he acknowledges that it's the only energy that we capture the waste (we don't capture the sulfur, methane and CO2 that are generated from coal and natural gas). I mean, in real terms, we have a "Captain Philips" and Somali pirates raiding ocean vessels expressly because the French dumped their nuclear waste off of the coast of Somalia and the leaking containers decimated the fishing. The fishermen literally had nothing else they could do other than become drones for the local warlords. So waste (including the reconditioning of the waste as we only use about 3% of the fuel prior to storing it) and the entire use process of nuclear fuel has to be revisited... again without the dogma. That said, I'm glad they aren't putting up the Uranium fueled plant here in Florida.

I have a more complete take on how nuclear could work and significantly more safe than currently deployed, but I'll save that for another post if anyone's interested. Anyway, here's the video. And for X, it's only 16 mins long, iirc.

 

[Riverumbbq]

Oh, so there is ownership of vehicles, and not a membership in a leasing club? I was actually asking Mack, Les. Thanks for your view. That would be the ideal scenario. There are a lot of variables here. I am anxious to here what Mack has to say about this. I know he has thought a lot about what the future in this area might look like. Maybe you have too.

Even garages attached to homes could become obsolete in urban or densely packed villages & towns, creating more space and eliminating some property taxes.
It's now common for Jet planes to be owned by a small group of individuals, where you are allotted certain times that can also be traded, this kind of system can certainly be adapted to a local community for driverless automobile use.

 

[Riverumbbq]

I agree with much of that.

And the guy in the video is essentially channeling what I've been saying for quite awhile now. It's why I predicted that the iPod and iPhone would trounce other tech... Jobs understood convergence better than almost anyone in the modern era.

People forget how onerous the process was to buy music or to install an application. And does anyone remember the early days of Android where the market was ridiculously fragmented based on silly sounding Android OS names? The average person just wasn't interested in mastering or even participating in that learning curve. It's why for a long time, there were lines outside Apple stores for products. They understood convergence. Now, I like Tim Cook, but he understands it less so and the last few years have been Apple becoming big at the expense of the future and they are coming dangerously close to Kodak territory. I see a market disruption coming in that space, too.

As for solar, I have mixed feelings on it. I think it will be part of the energy matrix, but not dominant.

I just saw a video, a TEDtalk from a Mennonite, pacifist, anti-nuclear activist that there's a groundswell among hardcore climate activists that Thorium fueled nuclear is the way to go even over solar and hydro. That people like him as well as Jim Hanson (I think I got his name right, he's the scientist who was among the earliest to talk about man-made climate change) are advocating for Thorium fueled nuclear is really something and, quite honestly, based on the data, it's hard to argue with him.

I do take umbrage with his lack of concern for waste, even as he acknowledges that it's the only energy that we capture the waste (we don't capture the sulfur, methane and CO2 that are generated from coal and natural gas). I mean, in real terms, we have a "Captain Philips" and Somali pirates raiding ocean vessels expressly because the French dumped their nuclear waste off of the coast of Somalia and the leaking containers decimated the fishing. The fishermen literally had nothing else they could do other than become drones for the local warlords. So waste (including the reconditioning of the waste as we only use about 3% of the fuel prior to storing it) and the entire use process of nuclear fuel has to be revisited... again without the dogma. That said, I'm glad they aren't putting up the Uranium fueled plant here in Florida.

I have a more complete take on how nuclear could work and significantly more safe than currently deployed, but I'll save that for another post if anyone's interested. Anyway, here's the video. And for X, it's only 16 mins long, iirc.

Yeah, like you said, not much emphasis on nuclear waste, which has always been my achilles with the issue. Also, little discussion on the actual physical destruction of Chernobyl & Fuchishima. Until it becomes practical to warehouse nuclear waste and potentially shoot it into the sun on a nuclear powered rocket, i'm out. Solar does create its own waste, but it is a relatively young technology which should soon find the means for proper recycling or disposal, at least this is my hope. Either way, I do believe the immediate future for energy is about renewables.

 

[Mackeyser]

Your point would be more applicable if the electric car wasn't also going to be conflated in the near future with auto-autos... or self-driving cars.

Moreover, in 20-30 years, I honestly don't think we'll recognize cars.

1) I think ownership will for most be some sort of membership in a type of leasing club. This meshes with the millennial's distaste for driving and their desires to still be independent.

2) Insurance will kill self-driving. As auto-driving cars have much better safety records than people, the time will come when insurance costs reach a critical mass and rates are unattainable.

3) Large parts of urban centers will likely be completely off-limits to human driving at all. That will significantly aid city planners and make for safer traffic zones.

4) The shape of cars will radically change. There is really no reason for the current shape of cars if they are self-driving electric. I won't even venture a guess because designers will look at how people are using the new vehicles and design around that.

5) As for the batteries, I honestly don't think Lithium Ion is the be all. It's not the end. I think there's a next step that will exponentially increase stored capacity as well as deliverable power.

So basically, in the not too distant future, cars won't likely be "cars". We may not even recognize the shape as a "car" per se.

And yes, currently, it's a lot of mining. I dunno where the next battery comes from. Hopefully, they are all more ecologically viable than the Nickel Metal Hydride batteries... ugh. Lithium Ion is better, but still.

That said, we desperately need to upgrade our grid as it is, so I don't see this as an issue.

Lastly, the electric car will be that next level upgrade in that once fully deployed, people will have to remember driving and there will be the first generation who talks about "buying" or "having" a car and will have never driven.

For us old timers, it'll be a Strange New World...

I know, quoting myself...

Anyway... I typed this BEFORE watching the video (pretty sure I've said all of this before on this forum)

So, between Mark Blyth and now Tony Seba... well, it's nice to experience some validation.

That said, I think he's got one thing a bit wrong... and that's by when the legislative hurdles will be cleared.

I think states like CA, NY, MA, CO, OR, WA and even FL will clear the legislative hurdles relatively quickly. I think the oil-producing states will drag their feet (even going so far as to create legislative blocks to protect "horse and buggy" jobs) at the Federal level.

That said, while Mr Seba estimates 2021, I think we will have to be WELL behind the curve before our dysfunctional Congress gets off its ass and does the basic math. They'll wait until it's a fait d'accompli and states and big corporations are already fully on board and deploying many of the technologies.

In the 60s we took pride in leading the world. WE showed the world what the future could and would look like.

Now, we are consumers.. "trailers" if you will in many respects and we are ceding the future to other countries who are aggressively embracing the inevitability of the future.

It's coming. I remember I had a 1970 Camaro that preferred leaded gas. Even in 1986, there was only like 1 gas station in all of Santa Monica that had leaded gas (Shell station on Lincoln Blvd near Santa Monica HS)

That's gonna be how it is with gas stations en toto. There will be a few around, but you'll have to know where they are.

No gas stations, no expense of cars beyond the subscription (Transportation as a Service-TaaS, I mean).

It's gonna mean that hundreds of thousands of jobs (if not millions) will disappear almost overnight.

As for "heavy duty applications", I hope everyone understands that there are fully battery powered city busses in use right now. Moreover, Tesla, Volvo, MAN, and Mercedes have ALREADY announced or slated for production tractor trailers as soon as 2019. The ONLY thing that surprises me is that with autonomous driving trucks, that they aren't considering modular battery solutions. That would allow the trucks to operate on a nearly 24/365 basis. THAT alone would allow for the trimming of fleets by at least 40%.

Fleet size could still significantly diminish and the impact of recharge time is mitigated (measured in the opportunity cost of having a charge time versus the potential costs of additional maintenance/replacement as mileage density/hour on a daily basis increases). This could be mitigated by having solar panels along the full trailer as well as batteries with significantly reduced recharge times.

Honestly, the biggest hurdles will be ocean container ships.

I think if they were to convert to Thorium nuclear reactors as well as using the denticle application along the hull, we would go a looong way to cleaning up our oceans and atmosphere.

From a zdnet article in 2010...
http://www.zdnet.com/article/a-sharkskin-coating-for-ships-planes-and-blades/

German researchers have developed a paint that mimics the dermal dentricles, or placoid scales, of fast-swimming sharks. According to the scientists, the coating covers 3-dimensional surfaces easily and reduced friction by more than 5 percent in tests at a ship construction facility. Container ships transport about 90 percent of global trade from port to port and are big, heavy and huge fuel guzzlers. Over the course of a year, one large cargo ship could potentially save 2,000 tons of fuel.

Of course, there are some lifestyle differences between a shark and an airplane, a turbine, and a boat. So nanoparticles within the paint allow it to withstand ultra-violet radiation, temperature fluctuations (between -67 and 158 degrees Fahrenheit), and mechanical loads.

Thorium reactors couldn't be weaponized and if there were political issues, nations with nuclear fleets could essentially contract with that nation to provide both operation and maintenance. Fleets entering the US are already having to convert to using a much more efficient fuel mix within our national waters.

Those ships would literally be so much cleaner that companies would net a competitive advantage if they advertised using "clean transportation" be it nuclear ship or electric trucks/vans for delivery.

What's going to surprise people is HOW FAST all this is going to happen.

I used to feel like a wild-haired John the Baptist talking about all this stuff. Now, I'm thinking I can stop eating locusts and take a bath...

 

[nighttrain]

I won't hold my breath on electric quite yet. Its time has not come. It will get here but we are a decade away is my gut feeling.

first use will be limited to large metropolis's, then will branch out to the burbs, then everywhere. This new gen will come is stages
train

 

[Riverumbbq]

I think states like CA, NY, MA, CO, OR, WA and even FL will clear the legislative hurdles relatively quickly. I think the oil-producing states will drag their feet (even going so far as to create legislative blocks to protect "horse and buggy" jobs) at the Federal level.

It's coming. I remember I had a 1970 Camaro that preferred leaded gas. Even in 1986, there was only like 1 gas station in all of Santa Monica that had leaded gas (Shell station on Lincoln Blvd near Santa Monica HS)
That's gonna be how it is with gas stations en toto. There will be a few around, but you'll have to know where they are.

No gas stations, no expense of cars beyond the subscription (Transportation as a Service-TaaS, I mean).

It's gonna mean that hundreds of thousands of jobs (if not millions) will disappear almost overnight.

Agree on Congress dragging their feet, but private industry and their hired lobbyists will light a fire under them just as the oil companies did and do.
Service (gas) stations are likely history. It will be like the old days when hunting for those few businesses which sold propane before supermarkets and gas stations started carrying them. Rather than independent fueling stations, we may see some teaming up with other businesses like Costco, Sams Club, Ace, Home Depot, etc., where liquid fuel is necessary to power many tools. Auto manufacturers will change dramatically and their sales departments will be no more. Wouldn't be surprised to see Ford, GM or Boeing, etc. getting more into the military marketplace as they will require someone to continue building armored vehicles.
Many traditional blue collar jobs will be lost while other jobs will be gained in new sectors involving tech and infrastructure, although it will still net far fewer when all is said an done. Passenger trains & subways may finally make a real comeback in this country. There may be more of an emphasis on individual luxury & privacy issues with fewer self owned vehicles. Highway maintenance & infrastructure may become more acute as corporations will demand a better experience for the paying traveller.
Hey, ... at least there will be less drinking and driving casualties & police to deal with, so cocktail bars & happy hours will be more popular again.

 

[Adi]

I'm all for new technology and improving the environment but I can't see myself ever going electric .

I don't have to worry about someone hacking the system or locking me out of my car. If my gas engines breaks down I can fix it on my own, it' easy to diagnose .

I love the new technology but as for the engine I'll stick to gas.

 

[Ramhusker]

The technology curve suggests sooner, Husker. That’s the point of the video (which is long, but worth watching). It illustrates, with data, exactly the curve we are on.

Yeah, I'll believe it when I see it. I travel a lot and I rarely see a charging station. And according to most accounts, our power grid here in the US is at max capacity as it is now. They are really going to have to ramp up the coal industry to sniff a break even point. I'm sure coal will be displaced sooner or later in the equation but that's not going to happen within a couple thousand days. Of course, I'd never thought they'd try and use food product as fuel either but our engines are polluted with it today pretty thoroughly.

 

[Mackeyser]

Yeah, I'll believe it when I see it. I travel a lot and I rarely see a charging station. And according to most accounts, our power grid here in the US is at max capacity as it is now. They are really going to have to ramp up the coal industry to sniff a break even point. I'm sure coal will be displaced sooner or later in the equation but that's not going to happen within a couple thousand days. Of course, I'd never thought they'd try and use food product as fuel either but our engines are polluted with it today pretty thoroughly.

That's another great point!

The farmers that grow corn for ethanol and HFCS are going to have to reconsider their crops.

I honestly think if we'd start using hemp products (It's really good for the environment and actually helps restore the soil while also capturing more CO2 than almost every other plant) it would be one in a thousand steps we could take to make things better. Soil erosion and nutrient depletion is a real thing.

But yeah... I recognize the reticence to see this, but disruptions happen fast enough that you end up looking up a few years after it happened and almost can't remember how it was before.