Team Net Turnover Points Statistics

[Fatbot]

looking at a teams giveaway/takeaway ratio involves some luck as to how these turnovers occur, but not the result on the scoreboard

Since it's just a sum the numbers are dependent on the total number of turnovers received/lost. You can't be net minus-40 if you've only lost one turnover the entire season, the max would be minus-8... So it's not exactly "based simply on minimizing your mistakes and taking advantage of the opponents mistakes on the scoreboard"... That's implies too much skill in the numbers since turnovers are one of the luckiest events in sports.

If you want to get to the opportunistic/prevention skill component, you would have to compare every team's turnover versus the expected points the average NFL team scores/gives up in that situation, then take an average total result for comparison. Your INT example, imagine it's on their own 20-yard line: look at all the times a team throws a pick, what's the usual result? Is it your defense's fault if it's a pick-6? Do they allow a TD pass/run? FG? Missed FG/turn it back over? It would probably be some number like 5.7 expected points, then you would look at that team's actual result and plot the difference from the expected for all that team's turnovers... Then you have to consider adding game clock situation, home/road, weather, etc. factors.. and how do we build the data of expected outcomes, go back 5, 10, 20 years to compare? etc... Then come up with some kind of final "skill" statistic that also reflects the number of chances -- after all maybe it's easy to stop someone from scoring after a turnover once, so you need to give more credit to a team that does it two, five, ten times... blah blah blah

So given that difficulty in isolating the skill component, I think the most accurate summation of this stat is best left as "the effect of turnovers on a team's scoring", leaving out the buzz words like "taking advantage" and "minimizing mistakes". That leaves the door open to all the possible reasons for a high/low score while still getting the point across. Maybe that team is really great/lousy at capitalizing on opponent mistakes/minimizing their own, or perhaps just getting really lucky/unlucky so far in all the other factors that go into turnovers -- who cares exactly how but here's the bottom line on the scoreboard.

 

[Mojo Ram]

Net Team turnover points through week 15...
takeaway points/giveaway points/net points
win/loss record

Top 11
1. Carolina 124/29/+95
14-0
2. Kansas City 119/36/+83
9-5
3. Seattle 81/22/+59
9-5
4. Arizona 112/62/+50
12-2
5. NYG 86/37/+49
6-8
6. Philadelphia 95/49/+46
6-8
7. NYJ 81/41/+40
9-5
8. Pittsburgh 84/54/+30
9-5
9. New England 67/41/+26
12-2
10. Green Bay 45/24/+21
10-4
11. St Louis 66/46/+20 <---------------------------------------------
6-8

Bottom 10
32. Washington 26/106/-80
7-7
31. Baltimore 44/102/-58
4-10
30. Detroit 37/90/-53
5-9
29. Houston 25/74/-49
7-7
28. Dallas 27/67/-40
4-10
27. Oakland 46/84/-38
6-8
26. San Diego 23/58/-35
4-10
25. Indianapolis 58/91/-33
6-8
24. San Francisco 25/54/-29
4-10
23. Cleveland 40/67/-27
3-11

 

[Mojo Ram]

Thru week 16...

Top 10
1. Carolina 127/29/+98
14-1
2. Kansas City 119/36/+83
10-5
3. Arizona 140/62/+78
13-2
4. Seattle 81/29/+52
9-6
5. NYJ 88/48/+40
10-5
6. Philadelphia 95/59/+36
6-9
7. NYG 86/50/+36
6-9
8. St Louis 73/46/+27 <----------------------------------------------------------------
7-8
9. Minnesota 63/37/+26
10-5
10. New England 74/48/+26
12-3


Bottom 10
32. Washington 36/106/-70
8-7
31. Baltimore 54/102/-48
5-10
30. Detroit 44/90/-46
6-9
29. Tennessee 58/101/-43
3-12
28. Dallas 27/67/-40
4-11
27. Oakland 54/91/-37
7-8
26. San Diego 30/66/-36
4-11
25. San Francisco 25/61/-36
4-11
24. Indianapolis 58/91/-33
7-8
23. Houston 42/74/-32
8-7

 

[Mojo Ram]

Still one game to go but last season the Rams finished ranked 27th in this statistic.
79 points converted from turnovers last year(73 this season which is consistent with the 2015 squad)
102 points surrendered from turnovers last year(Only 46 points this season which is a huge improvement over last year)

Finished 2015 at a -23 Net points
Sitting at +27 right now.

 

[Legatron4]

Still one game to go but last season the Rams finished ranked 27th in this statistic.
79 points converted from turnovers last year(73 this season which is consistent with the 2015 squad)
102 points surrendered from turnovers last year(Only 46 points this season which is a huge improvement over last year)

Finished 2015 at a -23 Net points
Sitting at +27 right now.

I hate to be that guy, but what does this prove? That's a 40 point difference from last year and were still sitting at .500. I love the work you put into it but I guess I'm questioning if you believe it correlates into wins. Because 3 teams that are top ten in this statistic have losing records.

 

[Faceplant]

I hate to be that guy, but what does this prove? That's a 40 point difference from last year and were still sitting at .500. I love the work you put into it but I guess I'm questioning if you believe it correlates into wins. Because 3 teams that are top ten in this statistic have losing records.

I would say it proves that the RAMS were an anomaly this season. Look at the records of the top teams on his lists vs the worst teams. 7 of a total 12 playoff teams are in the top ten of his latest list. Conversely, only 2 of the bottom 10 would make the playoffs if they started today. Those two teams are only in because they are representing the worst 2 divisions in the NFL. If the Rams find themselves in the top 10 again next year, I am betting they make the playoffs. The offense simply can NOT be this bad again....can it?

 

[Legatron4]

I would say it proves that the RAMS were an anomaly this season. Look at the records of the top teams on his lists vs the worst teams. 7 of a total 12 playoff teams are in the top ten of his latest list. Conversely, only 2 of the bottom 10 would make the playoffs if they started today. Those two teams are only in because they are representing the worst 2 divisions in the NFL. If the Rams find themselves in the top 10 again next year, I am betting they make the playoffs. The offense simply can NOT be this bad again....can it?

I'll agree with that. It's unfortunate that our record doesn't show how much this team has really improved. We can beat any team in the league right now. Handily if I might add, at our best and 100%.

 

[DaveFan'51]

Finished 2015 at a -23 Net points
Sitting at +27 right now.

Mojo, where does this Rank us at this point!? thanks!

Oops, just saw it never mind, thanks anyway!

 

[Mojo Ram]

I hate to be that guy, but what does this prove? That's a 40 point difference from last year and were still sitting at .500. I love the work you put into it but I guess I'm questioning if you believe it correlates into wins. Because 3 teams that are top ten in this statistic have losing records.

The importance and relevance of this statistic is open to debate, but the meaning of it is quite simple.
Every team in the NFL makes mistakes by turning over the football, and every team also forces turnovers. The key to this is two-fold.
Which teams can capitalize on any turnovers they force and convert them into points and at the same time minimize the damage on the scoreboard whenever they make mistakes of their own(losing fumbles, throwing INT's etc).

My interpretation is that the top teams in this category are opportunistic and are also careful to not shoot themselves in the foot and make things easier for their opponents on the scoreboard. Let's say the Rams defense goes out and forces 4 turnovers in a game for example, but our offense throws a pick six.....if none of those Rams forced turnovers are converted into points then you've lost that battle despite winning the turnover margin. IMO that's huge. Turnovers themselves are momentum changing, sure...but they mean nothing on the scoreboard unless you factor in the results.

As you know the Rams threw alot of pick sixes last season, and had a few fumbles recovered for TD's IIRC.
102 points given away as a result of mistakes. That equates to 14 TD's. Fourteen! Horrible. Quality, responsible teams don't do that.
The Panthers and Seahawks have only surrendered 29 points all season as a result of turnovers. Kansas City only 36 points. First off, it's hard to force turnovers on these teams...it's very hard to make these teams pay on the scoreboard. Those same teams are making every mistake you make hurt you by converting them into points.

There is no one single statistic that is 100% full proof blueprint for success and that's not my claim here. Take it or leave it. I believe this one is very important however because it relates directly to the scoreboard. Seattle, New England, Green Bay have been atop this list for the last few years, and Arizona too. Carolina has been at the top nearly all season...and some folks still wonder how they do it without a whole lot on offense and defense in terms of personnel. Makes sense to me.

Our Rams just need to continue what they're doing, but score more points...obviously.