The do-it-all asset has made an impact with the Saints as a gadget player. Can he be a good starter, and for which team might it work best?
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Is Taysom Hill a starting NFL quarterback? What we know from 15 career passes
There are few more intriguing offseason storylines than that of
New Orleans Saints Swiss Army knife
Taysom Hill and his prospects -- not just as a gimmick player but as an NFL quarterback.
Nobody has talked him up more than his coach, Asshole Face,
comparing Hill to Steve Young and saying he is "
like gold bullion." If anything, the praise is said to be even more effusive inside the building. But Hill has attempted just
15 passesin his NFL career, including the playoffs. To put those numbers into context, the Broncos'
Drew Lock attempted 156 as a rookie last season, and we still have no idea about his future. The Giants'
Daniel Jones threw 459 passes, and we're not much wiser in his case.
Is Hill, a restricted free agent who
the Saints gave a first-round tender, worth pursuing this offseason? Payton obviously sees Hill in practice and during meetings and in multiple settings the rest of us simply aren't given access to, so to a certain degree, we need to acknowledge that he is working with more information on the subject than we are. But it's still worth looking at the 29-year-old's tape to see if there are signs of the potential in which Payton has so much confidence.
Scant data points
To start, let's acknowledge just how little data we have on Hill as a quarterback. He has played almost 1,200 snaps in total the past two seasons, if you include special teams, but just 105 of them came with him lined up at quarterback, and 67 of those snaps still had
Drew Brees on the field. Hill lined up as the sole quarterback on the field for just 33 snaps the past two seasons, which is around half a game's worth.
Hill earned a roster spot by doing what
Tim Tebow refused to: anything his team asked of him, regardless of how demeaning it would be for a "quarterback." Tebow was a first-round pick and Hill went undrafted, so their outlooks from the get-go would have been vastly different, but Hill was able to carve himself a valuable niche as an athletic do-it-all player well before the team was forced to determine if he was worth a roster spot as a quarterback alone.
As a gadget player, Hill became increasingly valuable and worked his way further and further into the weekly game plan. He played special teams, ran the ball, passed occasionally, caught passes and even blocked as a tight end -- and he did all of it to a pretty high level. In 2019, he saw at least 20 snaps as a quarterback, in the backfield, at tight end, in the slot, split wide and in five different facets of special-teams play. Against the Vikings in the playoffs, Hill accounted for 38% of the team's yards on offense, playing only 23 offensive snaps.
If you want to see how Hill might perform as a true quarterback, though, you need to look at the preseason because that's the only time the Saints have given him an extended look at the position. Sure, in those spots, he is working both with and against backups, but he has at least flashed impressive performances. If we roll all of his NFL passes together, his stat line actually looks pretty encouraging. He has a 65% completion rate to go with 7.7 average yards per attempt. He has tossed seven touchdowns to four interceptions, and he has an overall PFF grade of 74.7.
These aren't numbers that will set the world alight, but they don't contradict the notion that he could be a viable starting quarterback in the future, either.
What's the blueprint?
Adding some extra intrigue to the situation is the performance of
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in 2019. Jackson played at an MVP level because his team was prepared from the outset to build a custom offense around his skill set and tailor everything to his strengths. His ability within that offense made his life easier when it came to things he wasn't as good at, consequently making improvement there much easier to achieve.
If Hill were to have success as a quarterback in the future, it seems likely that it would have to come in similar circumstances, and Payton has already shown a penchant for the creative in crafting various roles for him within the current offense. If an offense were created around Hill's strengths, magnifying the threat of his athleticism and not asking him to replicate what Brees has done so effectively for years, there is nothing we have seen from him in the NFL to suggest that he can't be successful operating it.
The big question: Why go to that trouble? The Ravens did it for Jackson because he is one of the most unique athletes the league has ever seen; he won the Heisman trophy in college and was an extremely productive player at that level. In all honesty, not finding a way to use somebody that talented to the maximum would be negligent.
Hill, on the other hand, never reached that level of performance in college. His best season at BYU in terms of performance earned him an overall PFF grade of 85.3, but it lasted just 349 snaps before a fractured leg ended his campaign, and he was never able to hit that level again before going undrafted in 2017. Although he is an impressive athlete, he very definitely isn't on Jackson's level in that regard.
The Saints might be the only team that would be invested in Hill, simply because when they finally have to deal with the consequences of a Brees-less future, they will also be dealing with salary-cap ramifications and won't have many avenues to take.
Is Hill worth a restricted free-agent offer?
Any team other than New Orleans would need to make a run at Hill as a restricted free agent, which means they would need to pay him and give up draft compensation to secure his services. For that price, you have to wonder if you can be any more confident in Hill's long-term outlook than that of
Teddy Bridgewater, whom the Saints turned to when Brees was injured.
Although Hill will be 30 years old by the time the 2020 season rolls around, Bridgewater will be just 27, and his five games starting in 2019 (when the Saints elected to keep Hill in his gadget role and even dialed down his usage) rehabilitated his image as a viable starting quarterback. Bridgewater began to push the ball down the field, and in his final three games, he had 12 deep shots for seven completions and a passer rating of 130.6. He also might not be the answer for a quarterback-needy team, but there is dramatically more data to support that notion than there is for Hill.
The way the league is trending, there is certainly a possibility that Hill can be turned into a game-changing QB if a bespoke offense is built around him. But that still involves a huge gamble that NFL teams are typically not keen on making. For that reason alone, it seems like Hill's future as a starting quarterback is tied to Payton, his greatest hype man, and the Saints in a post-Brees era. And while there isn't a perfect fit outside New Orleans right now, some more QB reps this season under Payton might better set Hill up to hit the market down the road.