This is Jeff Fisher’s Offense, His Failure, His Fault
Posted by: Bernie Miklasz i
http://www.101sports.com/2015/12/08/jeff-fishers-offense-failure-fault/
First of all, good luck to Rob Boras. And no, I’m not being a wise guy here. Boras is getting a chance to coordinate an NFL offense, and though the circumstances are far from ideal, it still has to be an exciting opportunity for him. Boras will see if he can make a positive difference over the final four games by jolting the Rams’ offense from their sustained coma. It’s a difficult assignment, and I sincerely wish Boras well.
Boras was placed in charge of the care of this sickly offense on Monday when Rams head coach Jeff Fisher fired the overwhelmed (and underwhelming) Frank Cignetti as the team’s offensive coordinator. This was Fisher’s response to increasingly intense criticism, the questions about his job security, and an embarrassing set of numbers.
The Rams are 31st among 32 teams in offensive points per game (14.4), 31st in touchdowns from scrimmage, and are last in the NFL in passer rating (69.8), yards per passing attempt (6.0), completion percentage (56.0), net passing yards per game (178), total net yards from scrimmage per game (305), and third-down conversion rate (24.5 percent.)
Since STATS LLC began tracking third-down success rates as an official league statistic in 1972, the Rams’ current percentage rate ranks No. 1,294 on a list of 1,297 teams. Only 1976 Tampa Bay (24.4), 2002 Dallas (24.0) and 2005 San Francisco (24.0) were worse.
But it’s close, and the Rams have a chance to be the NFL’s most futile third-down team since ’72.
During the five-game losing streak the Rams have averaged 10.4 points per game and scored five offensive touchdowns. This continues a trend, with a bad offense being a central factor in Fisher’s 4-11 record in his last 15 games. The heat is on the head coach. He isn’t used to that. He doesn’t like it. Fisher — who has had such a comically easy ride here — flashed his arrogance by recently telling critics to kiss his rear end.
Which, come to think of it, was the same as telling the critics to kiss his offense.
And now this: a classic “we’ve got to do something to get everyone off my back ” maneuver, with the coach attempting to show that he cares. That he’s not going to take it anymore. That he’s tired of watching his own offense.
Fisher wasn’t going to fire himself, you see.
And Cignetti was a convenient, ridiculously easy patsy.
See ya, Frank.
Fisher surely doesn’t think the public — or his own players — are this stupid, does he?
Maybe he does.
In explaining the firing, Fisher said: “Players contributed, coaches contributed, everybody contributed, but we have to move in a different direction. The lack of production is obvious.”
When asked if Rams players were shocked by Fisher’s decision to tell Cignetti to clear out of Rams Park, the coach said: “Yes, they were. They were and I hope they all took it personally because they need to. You’ve got a good man and a good football coach that’s busting his butt every single day. Now, for whatever reasons, he’s no longer here. They have to take some responsibility for that.”
You may have noticed a few things that Fisher didn’t say there.
Things like …
“I should have never hired Frank Cignetti in the first place, so this is on me. One hundred percent of it.”
Or …
“After Brian Schottenheimer left for another job, I had an opportunity to really shake up this offense and take it in a fresh, creative and forward-thinking direction. But instead of hiring the most innovative offensive mind I could have brought in here in an effort to stimulate this offense, I walked down the hall at Rams Park and hired Frank. I did the easiest thing possible. I didn’t strive for a higher standard. I let this organization down.”
Or …
“We traded for a new quarterback in Nick Foles, and we drafted an exciting franchise-caliber running back in Todd Gurley, and we have a young playmaker in Tavon Austin who can do some magical things with the football in is hands. It was the perfect time to recruit an offensive coordinator that could put it all together and give this offense a new look. But I didn’t do that, so once again, all of the blame goes on me.”
Or …
“You know, I have to take a hard look at myself. And that’s overdue. Why are my offenses so pedestrian, and ineffective? Why have I been so slow in adjusting to the modern NFL style of offense? Why am I still stuck in the past? I really have to evolve.”
Or …
“You may not remember this, but before I hired Schottenheimer in 2012, I interviewed Hue Jackson for the offensive coordinator’s job. I hired Schotty. But looking back, I went with the wrong guy. Look at the great job Hue is doing in Cincinnati. He’s really thrived in that role, and has turned the Bengals into one of the best offenses in this league.”
Or …
“We neglected this offensive line for years, and then drafted a bunch of rookies in 2014 and 2015. And we threw them all out there, expecting to get positive results. That was naive on my part. As a proponent of the running game I should know that you can only get the train rolling if you have a strong offensive line. You can’t consistently move the ball with a young, inexperienced and vulnerable offensive line.”
Or:
“While I believe that we have players who are capable of performing better on offense, let’s be honest here: these are players that I wanted. If they aren’t as good as I believed they’d be, then that’s on me.”
No, we didn’t hear any of that from Coach Fisher on Monday when he shoveled the blame for a dull and dysfunctional offense into every corner except his own second-floor corner office. This came as no surprise.
Later in the day, on his Monday-night show on 101 ESPN, Fisher did say “We’re all the blame. I’m to blame.”
(That may be a first.)
It’s an appropriate time to remind everyone what this is all about — other than the coach attempting to cover the backside that he invited everyone to kiss a couple of weeks ago:
This offense at Rams Park is a Jeff Fisher production.
In the Fisher football operation, the offensive coordinator exists for two reasons: (1) run the bruising Fisher offense but remember that Coach doesn’t appreciate the value of having an evolved or even above-average passing game; and (2) take the hit as the official scapegoat when Coach Fisher decides it’s time to make a change.
Fisher made the change Monday.
Even though he, Fisher, won’t change.
Here are the basics of the Fisher profile:
— This is his 20th full season as a head coach. His teams have made the playoffs six times.
— In four of the six playoff seasons, Fisher’s Tennessee Titans had an above-average offense in points scored. This should have reinforced the importance of having a capable offense that can do its fair share in getting the team to a playoff level.
— Fisher has had an above-average offense (points scored) in nine of his 20 full seasons.
— Fisher has an above-average offense (in points) in only two of his last 10 seasons as head coach, including 2015.
— Fisher’s offense has been below-average (in points) eight times in his last 10 seasons.
— Let’s cite the advanced metrics at Football Outsiders: Fisher’s offense has ranked 20th or worse in DVOA (adjusted efficiency) eight times in his last 11 seasons — and hasn’t been rated better than No. 15 in the league since 2003.
— STATS LLC keeps track of the points-scored average of the teams that make the playoffs each season. In Fisher’s first 19 seasons, his teams reached the playoff-caliber average for points scored only three times in 19 years — 1996, 1999, and 2003.
— This is Fisher’s fourth year as head coach in St. Louis. Here are the Rams’ annual ranking (in order) for offensive points scored beginning in the 2012 season: 28th … 22nd … 23rd … 31st. They’ve never topped more than 19 offensive points per game in a season.
— In Fisher’s 60 games as Rams coach, his offense has scored fewer than 21 points per game (the league average) only 33 times. And they’ve been held to 14 points or fewer in 24 of 60 games.
— A bullish rushing attack is always a plus, but you can’t live exclusively on the ground. Even for teams that thrive at running the ball — and Seattle is a great example — an effective passing game is a must-have component. In NFL history, the six-highest passing yards totals have occurred over the last six seasons with teams averaging 233 net passing yards per game since 2010. The escalation has reached a net average of 246 yards passing per game this season, but Fisher’s Rams can’t get into the jet stream. The Rams are averaging a league-low 178 net passing yards per game this season — or 27.6 percent below league average. In Fisher’s four seasons the Rams’ average of 203 net passing yards is 15 percent below league average .
— During these four Fisher-offense seasons the Rams rank 28th in net passing yards, 24th in completion percentage, 28th in yards per passing attempt, 26th in passer rating, 27th in touchdown-pass percentage, and were 25th in average yards per catch (11.2.)
— The Rams have thrown 72 touchdown passes in Fisher’s 60 games (only eight this season.) The NFL-team average over the last 60 games is 94 touchdown passes … meaning that the Rams are 23.4% below average at producing TD passes.
OK.
That should give you a good handle on Fisher’s history on offense.
Here’s what I don’t understand: during Fisher’s most successful five-year stretch as a head coach, from 1999 through 2003, his Tennessee team was tied with the Rams for the league’s best regular-season winning percentage (.700) during time. And not only did the Titans advance the ball through the air, they were very good at it. One of the best passing teams in the NFL between 1999 and 2003 — ranking fifth in yards per attempt, fifth in passer rating, eighth in touchdown passes, and ninth in net passing hards.
Fisher reached his apex as a coach with Steve McNair at quarterback. The Titans’ formidable balance of run/pass was difficult to stop. Clearly the coach discovered something over those five seasons: a physical rushing game is a solid foundation for an offense — but if you want to be special you have to be able to throw it, too.
You can say that the quarterback isn’t good enough, and it isn’t fair to compare this offense to the Fisher offense led by McNair. To that, I say this: are we supposed to believe it’s impossible to find a quarterback who can approximate the value that McNair had at Tennessee? Who chooses the quarterback in St. Louis? Who has the authority to make the QB position a priority instead of an accessory?
You can say that the overall offensive talent is lacking on offense, so what’s a coach supposed to do? To that, I say: Fisher has enormous power in choosing the players and stocking the Rams roster. These are not only the players that Fisher wanted, but Fisher and his assistance are also responsible for coaching this talent and making it better.
You can say that Fisher drafted RB Todd Gurley, a gamble that looks like a winner. So doesn’t Fisher deserve credit for Gurley? To that I say: the Gurley pick was brilliant, and applause for Fisher is warranted. OK, now let’s talk about the coaching. Once defenses reacted to Gurley’s first four (and sensational) NFL starts by scheming him into a wall of tacklers — where were the adjustments? Gurley has averaged 52 yards rushing over the last five games, all losses. Over the past three games he’s carried 43 times for 126 yards, an average of 2.9 yards per run, and has one gain of 10+ yards. Cignetti wasn’t the only coach at Rams Park that had a hand and a say in the offense.
You can say that it’s hard to have a good offense with a young and overmatched offensive line. To that, I say: why did Fisher and GM Les Snead wait so long to draft and develop O-linemen? In their first two drafts, Fisher and Snead had 17 selections to work with and used only two on offensive linemen. And both players were interior linemen (guard or center) drafted in the fourth round or later. In their first three drafts Fisher-Snead had 28 draft choices in hand and selected five offensive lineman overall.
And while the Rams drafted offensive tackle Greg Robinson with the No. 2 overall pick in 2014, they drafted the other four offensive linemen with picks at No. 113 … No. 150 … No. 226 … No. 250.
Why wait until your fourth draft to address this critically important area and then suddenly pick five offensive linemen in the 2015 draft — including one taken in the supplemental draft? Why suddenly cram the roster with so many rookie or linemen? By the fourth season of a coach’s program, the offensive line should be settled in, functioning smoothly, and peaking. It should be an asset — not a disorganized liability. By the fourth season of a rebuild, the offensive line should be an established strength instead of a mishmash of young players and journeymen thrown together.
Even if we’re inclined to give Fisher an attaboy for at least trying to do something to perk up this offense by switching coordinators, it doesn’t mean much. Fisher waited too long to make this move. Fisher said he’d been thinking about replacing Cignetti for a while. “I’ve looked hard it, yeah, over the last couple of weeks,” Fisher said. “Just haven’t gotten the production. We’re getting what we want out of them on the practice field. It’s not carrying over to the game. I didn’t wake up this morning and make this decision.”
Well, Fisher had just cause for making the call sooner than this.
After all, the Rams scored 10 points or fewer in three of their first five games so the warning signs were there early. And the current five-game losing streak that sank their season presented numerous opportunities to shake up the staff; the Rams scored 18 points or fewer in all five games. Why wait until after the 12th game, with only four contests remaining? It’s too late. The Rams (are 4-8) have a 1.8 percent chance of making the NFC playoffs as a wild-card team.
Any way you look at it, that big foam finger of blame points to Fisher
Cignetti was Fisher’s personal choice to take over at OC.
This is Fisher’s coaching staff. These are his draft choices, his free-agent signings, his roster.
This is Fisher’s offense.
His responsibility. And his failure.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
