Start Sean Mannion at QB? Whoa! Maybe in 2016
Posted by: Bernie Miklasz
http://www.101sports.com/2015/11/30/247818/
The good news for Rams rookie quarterback Sean Mannion: he got a chance to play in his first regular-season NFL game on Sunday at Cincinnati. Swabbing away during the meaningless final minutes of his team’s 31-7 blowout loss to the Bengals, Mannion competently completed six of seven passes.
The bad news for Mannion: as expected, he’s now become the people’s choice. He has his own bandwagon, and it’s filled with frustrated and restless Rams fans clamoring for the inexperienced QB to take over for the increasingly insufficient Nick Foles and the recently concussed Case Keenum.
From what I can tell, the argument for playing Mannion goes something like this:
Foles stinks.
Keenum stinks.
The coaching stinks.
The receivers stink.
The offensive line stinks.
The entire offense stinks.
The owner stinks.
The Rams have lost four stinking games in a row and are a stinking 4-7.
Everyone stinks, everyone sucks, everyone should be fired.
Therefore …
Hey, here’s an idea! Might as well see what the kid can do!
Indeed, Mannion is fresh meat — yet to be ripped apart and by hostile defenses that drool over the prospect of capturing such easy prey. Might as well see if the kid can make like a gazelle and escape the onrushing cheetahs that seek to destroy him. Maybe Mannion would survive. Maybe he doesn’t survive, and becomes David Carr, Tim Couch, Robert Griffin III, or any number one young quarterbacks that were ruined by absorbing so much physical punishment early in their careers. But until Mannion plays, how do we know. So let’s get him out there!
This reminds me of a quote from author Christopher McDougall … actually it’s a quote that I just looked up about 17 seconds ago, so it doesn’t really remind me of anything. But since I’m deep into the ol’ survival of the fittest metaphor, I like the quote anyway: “Every morning in Africa, a gazelle wakes up, it knows it must outrun the fastest lion or it will be killed. Every morning in Africa, a lion wakes up. It knows it must run faster than the slowest gazelle, or it will starve. It doesn’t matter whether you’re the lion or a gazelle-when the sun comes up, you’d better be running.”
You’d better memorize that, Mannion.
Hey! Nobody expected much from Kurt Warner in 1999, right? So Mannion could surprise!
Well, actually, I thought Warner would do fine — but he did much better than that, of course. Passed for 4,353 yards and 41 touchdowns, had nine 300-yard games. Was voted the NFL’s regular-season MVP and was selected as the MVP of Super Bowl 34 after passing for a record 414 yards in the Rams’ 23-16 win over Tennessee.
Without taking anything away from Saint Kurt, who will be a Pro Football Hall of Famer … I’m thinking that as an inexperienced NFL quarterback he benefited from having the likes of Marshall Faulk, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt in the huddle. Not to mention Az-Hakim, Ricky Prohel, Ernie Conwell, and Adam Timmerman … or having mad-man offensive coordinator Mike Martz designing and calling the plays. Not to be negative or anything, but I do believe young Mannion would have slightly less talent around him if he took over the 2015 Rams offense. Relative to Warner-Martz in ’99, Mannion may not receive quite as much coaching acumen from Frank Cignetti, either.
Is Mannion the Rams’ QB of the future? There’s only one way to find out. Play him!
Sure, this would be the one way to find out about Mannion. You can’t find out about him if he’s on the sideline wearing a baseball cap. But maybe — just maybe — you don’t want to find out about him just yet. You might want to keep him out of harm’s way until the Rams can put him in a more favorable position to launch an NFL career. Not a perfect position, but one that would at least give him a chance to have a confidence-building experience. You might want to avoid Mannion ruining him before he has a chance to develop. Since when does it make sense to start a rookie QB before he’s prepared to play in the NFL? Since when does it make sense to put a rookie in charge of an offense that’s malfunctioning in just about every phase? Or to to set him up to take double-digit hits behind five human pylons on the O-line? If Mannion has any chance to grow into the Rams’ starter, it’s asinine to subject him to the same circumstances that overwhelmed Foles and knocked out Keenum.
So I’m not sure why Mannion advocates would want to throw the kid into a terrible situation that’s already broken two veteran quarterbacks. If you like Mannion and believe he can become a long-time starter, then why would you want to expose the rookie to incompetent coaching, huge gaps in pass protectio and a collection of below-average receivers?
This seems contradictory to me.
We like Mannion; therefore let’s destroy him.
In 2009 the Rams drafted a big, hard-throwing, strapping young quarterback named Keith Null in the 6th round. He had been schooled at institute of higher learning known as West Texas A&M. Null was 6-4, about 220 pounds. In practice, the football sizzled coming out of his right hand. Physically, Null had a lot going for him. He was an intriguing but raw prospect. After watching Marc Bulger and Kyle Boller repeatedly get smacked upside the head, sail a bunch of air-ball incompletions and stagger around as if playing on morphine to ease the pain … Rams fans decided it was time to begin the Keith Null Era. The opinions were fired in through message boards, text lines, and via the hot-take sports-radio phone bank. They wanted Null, and they wanted him now. The Null bandwagon was quickly filled to capacity.
Rams head coach Steve Spagnuolo sadly gave in to this nonsense — deciding to start Null for a Dec. 13 game at Tennessee. Jeff Fisher and the Titans were waiting with a defense known for harassing and attacking helpless quarterbacks. This was a rather grim matchup for the Rams and Null, and the kid seemed to realize it … he couldn’t stop barfing in the locker room before the game.
Here’s what happened to Null that day in Nashville: only 165 yards passing on 44 attempts, one touchdown, FIVE interceptions, a fumble, five sacks, a passer rating of 38.7, and a 47-7 loss. Null would go on to start three more games in the ’09 season; he finished with three TDs, nine INTs and a 49.9 passer rating. And that was it. NFL career? Over.
Hey, but at least we found out about Null. And by going 0-4 as a starter, he helped the 1-15 Rams secure the top pick in the 2010 NFL draft. A selection that was turned into Sam Bradford. Well … that part didn’t work out so great, either.
If the Rams thought enough of Mannion to draft him in the 3rd round, they obviously like him a lot. And he’ll be their QB at some point. So play him! Why wait?
This reminds me of the flawed logic used by those that demanded an instant starting job for Mizzou’s true redshirt-freshman QB Drew Lock. He was a coveted recruit. Mizzou coach Gary Pinkel obviously thought highly of Lock. The kid was going to succeed or replace the starter Maty Mauk sooner or later, anyway. So why not get on with it? Why wait?
You wait for a simple reason: Lock wasn’t ready. Pinkel had the right plan, to ease Lock into the offense by playing him on select possessions to allow the freshman to gradually gain experience without overexposure and only minimal risk. Pinkel successfully used the same phase-in model to enhance the development of Chase Daniel, Blaine Gabbert, James Franklin, and Mauk. But forget all of that; it seemed that around 95 percent of Mizzou fans and media couldn’t wait … Lock had to be the guy RIGHT NOW. After Mauk was suspended from the squad, Lock started against South Carolina and completed 21 of 28 passes with two touchdowns and no interceptions. In Mizzou’s 24-10 win over a fading opponent — and up against South Carolina’s own true-freshman quarterback — Lock did a very nice job of running a conservative offense. And in the biggest upset of all, MU’s feeble offensive line actually did some blocking for him.
The reality of Mizzou’s long list of offensive woes quickly got to Lock and caused his head to spin; the one-day outlier vs. South Carolina meant nothing. With Mauk booted off the team (a second time), Lock continued to start, and his performance deteriorated in an alarming way. Over the final seven games Lock completed 44.3% of his passes, averaged 4.6 yards per attempt, passed for only one touchdown and seven interceptions, and got sacked 21 times.
In his final two games, Lock completed 38.6 percent of his passes and had little resemblance to the prized recruit that would lead Mizzou to another run of SEC East success.
Pinkel coached 15 seasons at Mizzou, and his final offense was his worst, averaging 13.6 points per game. Among Pinkel’s regular starting quarterbacks over those 15 seasons, Lock’s performance in 2015 put him in the 14th or 15th ranking in every meaningful passing category.
Can Lock recover from this harrowing experience? Do we still view him as a sure-thing, cannot-miss QB? Honestly, I don’t know what to make of Lock going forward.
I believe there’s a lesson to be learned here, but that’s just me.
Mannion has a more powerful arm than Foles or Keenum. He’s a prototype passer that can stretch the field and loosen the defense. Play him!
Actually … many of the pre-draft scouting reports questioned Mannion’s arm strength. And those that praised his arm strength attributed some of his problems to poor fundamentals — most notably the messy footwork that had Mannion making throws without establishing a lower base — throws that were all arm, with insufficient leg drive. It’s one of the reasons why this 6-6, 229-pound QB lasted until the third round of the ’15 NFL draft despite setting the all-time Pac 12 record for most career passing yards. His fundamentals required an extensive makeover, and it would take time to clean that up.
I went back and read multiple pre-draft reports on Mannion. A few things jumped out at me, but the most telling observations concerned the erosion of Mannion’s skill when under pressure. Here are a few excerpts:
Eric Nagel, SB Nation: “The technical flaws come out when Mannion is faced with pressure … Mannion is a decent development prospect at QB. He’s got the physical tools and experience you look for in a pro-style QB. He also has the arm to make some pretty impressive down field throws. However, he needs major development before anyone can think of him as a starter … he needs to work on his instincts – when under pressure, he tends to revert to sloppy footwork and lazy technique, leading him to throw many balls high, or completely off the mark. That may work against teams like Hawaii and Utah, but it’s not going to work in the NFL. Mannion may have long-term potential, but he isn’t ready for prime-time just yet.”
Dane Brugler, NFLDraftScout.com: “Struggles to recognize the blitz and doesn’t do enough after the snap to evade pressure, failing to speed up his process…hesitant when the pocket shows cracks and looks like a deer in headlights…holds the ball too long with a suspect internal clock that can be read with a sun dial…tends to telegraph his throws, staring down his targets…pre-determines passes and makes puzzling decisions that end with too many defenders at the other end of his passes…doesn’t have the mobility to improvise or keep plays alive, needing to slow himself and set his feet before pushing the ball.” (Brugler praised Mannion’s character but also cast him as a “Shaun Hill” type of quarterback at best.)
From NFL.com: “Tempo of his play is a concern. Slow in takeaway from center and set-up and slow getting through progressions. Carries ball low in the pocket, allowing defenders to swipe at it. Finished career with 30 fumbles and 54 interceptions. Poise and mobility in pocket are below average. Not considered a play-extender outside of pocket. Drops eyes and misses throwing windows when he senses pressure around him. Decision making greatly influenced by level of pressure around him. Fails to throw with adequate zip when feet aren’t under him and he doesn’t step strongly into throw. Takes too long to get rid of throws on out routes…Mannion needs plays to stay on schedule or his confidence becomes shaky and the turnovers start rolling in. Mannion lacks arm talent to carry an offense, but has enough ability to become a capable backup.”
The respected Greg Cosell of NFL Films didn’t dwell on the pressure factor, but identified other questionable aspects of Mannion’s game: “Unlike many quarterbacks coming out, Mannion has a lot of experience playing under center. He was a four-year starter in a pro-style offense. He knows how to play quarterback the way it’s played in the NFL, he just lacks the overall skill set that sets up well to be a starter. Mannion is very deliberate in everything he does. He must quicken his drop, set and delivery. He must significantly increase the tempo of his play. He looked heavy footed, and you must have good instincts and light feet as a pure pocket passer. It will be a challenge for Mannion to throw the ball outside the numbers at the NFL level. He did not show that kind of arm strength. Some intermediate throws lost energy on the back end, because there was too much of a loop.” Cosell thought Mannion could develop into a “Matt Schaub type of quarterback, a mid-level starter who needs pieces around him.” Cosell added that Mannion needed to get with an NFL team that could run the football and use him as a “complement” piece that can efficiently manage the game — then using the play-action pass to launch strikes downfield.
Cosell’s scouting report offers optimism; Mannion eventually could be a good fit for a Fisher-style offense. But Mannion has taken few practice reps this season, and hasn’t been trained to step into a starting role so soon. He’s a project. To be fair to the rookie, it’s ridiculous to think about elevating him to a prominent role unless he’s had substantial repetitions in practice. And even then, he may not be ready for regular duty. Mannion got more work during the offseason OTAs and the summer training camp than he has during the regular season. And even with a higher practice-rep count, Mannion wasn’t exactly calm and poised during the 2015 preseason games.
If you read the warnings about Mannion’s play under pressure — and how the pass rush causes a break down of his fundamentals — then why would it make any sense to start him right now?
For all of his outstanding play at Oregon State, Mannion threw too many interceptions (54) and coughed up too many fumbles (30.) Those numbers merely reaffirm the basis for the pre-draft scouting reports raising concerns about Mannion’s poise under duress.
If Fisher wants to ease Mannion into the competition with a series here, a series there — that’s fine. I don’t think limited and carefully isolated playing time would traumatize the rookie; it may give him something to build on. I’ll c0-sign on that, but you’ll have to excuse me for declining to demand Mannion’s installation as the starter. Why shove Mannion into a starting job right now? Why thrust a vulnerable rookie into this pathetic offense and expose him to so the insidious factors that already have undermined more established quarterbacks?
That’s just crazy. And irresponsible.
For now, this idea is (Keith) Null & Void.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie