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So as always one of the biggest metrics of a season in terms of predicting legitimate contenders is scoring defense. Those teams that give up more than 19ppg generally aren't "for real" and those who buck that trend are extremely high powered offenses. Last season's example of this was the Falcons, who eventually did have their smoke and mirror defense get exposed in the big dance.
The Rams' defensive play since the second half of the Dallas game has been among the best in the league. And as a result what was a terrible scoring defense is now a respectable 19.4 ppg. Whether this continues, and to what extent they can drop that metric, is going to be very important for not only their win/loss record the rest of the way through a tougher schedule, but also important for predicting how they'll fare in their first playoff appearance for most of the players on their roster.
Here's how the top ten looks right now. And yes I realize offense matters too, and has to be taken into account in using points against to predict contenders, it's just that defense is absolutely crucial come the playoffs IMO. Also of note is that being sub-15ppg tends to be a great indicator of going deep in the playoffs.:
1. Jax 14.6ppg (8th scoring 25.8ppg)
2. Pittsburgh 16.4ppg (20th scoring 20.9ppg)
3. Minnesota 16.9ppg (13th scoring 22.4ppg)
4. Carolina 17.7ppg (24th scoring 18.7ppg)
5. Sheattle 18.3ppg (10th scoring 23.4ppg)
6. Buffalo 18.6ppg (16th scoring 21.8ppg)
7. Baltimore 19ppg (19th scoring 21.1ppg)
7. LAC 19ppg (22nd scoring 18.8ppg)
9. LAR 19.4ppg (1st scoring 32.9ppg)
9. New Orleans 19.4ppg (6th scoring 27.6ppg)
Now it's still real early with a lot of football to be played not to mention matchups between the teams who are positioned right now as playoff contenders, but still the above shows us some things. Some notes:
Right now the overall balance for some teams shows their flaws, and if that continues the Steelers, Panthers, Bills, Ravens, and Clippers er Chargers will most likely be eliminated in the playoffs. Vikes and Shehawks are a bit low in their offensive potency being under 25ppg so IMO if things continue they'll be a notch below teams like the Eagles, Saints, and Rams in the NFC.
Philly comes in at 19.9ppg fwiw, so like the Rams they're a team that is near where you want to be but also comes with explosive offense. Both are legitimate contenders.
Matchups matter too of course. So again this is very general but I tend to look at this stuff around midseason since we're reaching that point where there's enough of a trend to see what's coming. And again for the Rams this is why those three games vs the Eagles, Vikes, and Shehawks loom so large.
I expect the Rams' scoring offense to dip a bit over the remaining sched. That said, I also expect their scoring defense to continue to drop. I don't think this is an elite defense. So they're not going to finish in that 15ppg range or lower. But I do think a sound 17ppg defense is where they end up.
Not going to go into trends we might be seeing around the league, like with Sherman's loss in Seattle for example. But no matter how you slice it the Rams are sitting very, very nice right now and trending very much in the direction of a true contender.
The Rams' defensive play since the second half of the Dallas game has been among the best in the league. And as a result what was a terrible scoring defense is now a respectable 19.4 ppg. Whether this continues, and to what extent they can drop that metric, is going to be very important for not only their win/loss record the rest of the way through a tougher schedule, but also important for predicting how they'll fare in their first playoff appearance for most of the players on their roster.
Here's how the top ten looks right now. And yes I realize offense matters too, and has to be taken into account in using points against to predict contenders, it's just that defense is absolutely crucial come the playoffs IMO. Also of note is that being sub-15ppg tends to be a great indicator of going deep in the playoffs.:
1. Jax 14.6ppg (8th scoring 25.8ppg)
2. Pittsburgh 16.4ppg (20th scoring 20.9ppg)
3. Minnesota 16.9ppg (13th scoring 22.4ppg)
4. Carolina 17.7ppg (24th scoring 18.7ppg)
5. Sheattle 18.3ppg (10th scoring 23.4ppg)
6. Buffalo 18.6ppg (16th scoring 21.8ppg)
7. Baltimore 19ppg (19th scoring 21.1ppg)
7. LAC 19ppg (22nd scoring 18.8ppg)
9. LAR 19.4ppg (1st scoring 32.9ppg)
9. New Orleans 19.4ppg (6th scoring 27.6ppg)
Now it's still real early with a lot of football to be played not to mention matchups between the teams who are positioned right now as playoff contenders, but still the above shows us some things. Some notes:
Right now the overall balance for some teams shows their flaws, and if that continues the Steelers, Panthers, Bills, Ravens, and Clippers er Chargers will most likely be eliminated in the playoffs. Vikes and Shehawks are a bit low in their offensive potency being under 25ppg so IMO if things continue they'll be a notch below teams like the Eagles, Saints, and Rams in the NFC.
Philly comes in at 19.9ppg fwiw, so like the Rams they're a team that is near where you want to be but also comes with explosive offense. Both are legitimate contenders.
Matchups matter too of course. So again this is very general but I tend to look at this stuff around midseason since we're reaching that point where there's enough of a trend to see what's coming. And again for the Rams this is why those three games vs the Eagles, Vikes, and Shehawks loom so large.
I expect the Rams' scoring offense to dip a bit over the remaining sched. That said, I also expect their scoring defense to continue to drop. I don't think this is an elite defense. So they're not going to finish in that 15ppg range or lower. But I do think a sound 17ppg defense is where they end up.
Not going to go into trends we might be seeing around the league, like with Sherman's loss in Seattle for example. But no matter how you slice it the Rams are sitting very, very nice right now and trending very much in the direction of a true contender.
