Rookie Wide Receivers

[iced]

BTW - Rams were 7th in Sacks allowed, 14th in QB hits allowed.. This "We can't keep Sam upright" is definitely exaggerated, atleast compared to the rest of the league....

 

[jrry32]

yep - and i'm sure you don't care that getting our worst blockers out of the scheme was a factor either (cook, d.rich)

I don't recall Cook doing too much blocking on passing plays. And Stacy, while better than Richardson, wasn't an especially great pass blocker either.

 

[Ram Quixote]

except that bradford has been one of the better protected qb's in the NFL...although conversely, his receiving corps production/actual playing has been abysmal

Which Bradford are you talking about? The Bradford who was able to avoid a sack in the first 2 games of the season, or the Bradford who got pummeled in Dallas and at home on that dreadful Thursday night? And are you seriously giving credit to an Oline protecting a backup that barely threw the ball in wins and often bailed out of the pocket during losses?

The key to protection is the time allowed to make the pass, not the QBs ability to avoid a persistent pass rush. How much tiime, typically, did Bradford or Clemens have to make a pass? 2 seconds? 3? I recall a tremendous pass Bradford made to Cook, but that cost him a big hit.

Abysmal receiving corps? Or lack of chemistry with Clemens? Clemens, who did not trust his arm enough to make the intermediate to deep passes with any regularity.

 

[iced]

I don't recall Cook doing too much blocking on passing plays. And Stacy, while better than Richardson, wasn't an especially great pass blocker either.

Cook was extremely bad in the Dallas/SF debacles, both run and pass pro.

Stacy wasn't greatest - but him and Pead are hands down the pass pro backs on this team, without question.

 

[iced]

Which Bradford are you talking about? The Bradford who was able to avoid a sack in the first 2 games of the season, or the Bradford who got pummeled in Dallas and at home on that dreadful Thursday night? And are you seriously giving credit to an Oline protecting a backup that barely threw the ball in wins and often bailed out of the pocket during losses?

Actually we're talking about Bradford's last 2 seasons. I'm not saying he's had perfect protection or all day to throw like a tom brady - but the notion that he's constantly being hit and sacked is an overblown exaggeration.

Abysmal receiving corps? Or lack of chemistry with Clemens? Clemens, who did not trust his arm enough to make the intermediate to deep passes with any regularity.

Big arm or not - that doesn't excuse being one of the worst teams in drops

 

[RamFan503]

yep - and i'm sure you don't care that getting our worst blockers out of the scheme was a factor either (cook, d.rich)

At what point are we supposed to have to rely on our RB and receiving TE to keep the QB clean? There's a problem if that is the case on any kind of regular basis.

 

[Zaphod]

This is fascinating. I looked this up because I wondered where we really do rank in pass protection.

At first I was just looking for average time in the pocket or time to throw. But that's really defined as much by the way plays are called/designed.

So how much does that really say? Of course coaches are going to try to design plays that suit their offensive line, but some will obviously be more conservative than others.

A way more interesting stat to see how your offensive line really ranks in terms of pass protection may just be the time to sack, and you can see on there, and granted this is for 2012, but it was all I can find and I do hope that I linked it correctly.

But yes, we are at the bottom. The ugly is there enough to get a good idea anyway.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/11/07/signature-stat-snapshot-time-to-throw/

I just found that interesting.

 

[iced]

At what point are we supposed to have to rely on our RB and receiving TE to keep the QB clean? There's a problem if that is the case on any kind of regular basis.

A lot of that depends on opponent, formation, play calling, etc.

But having to pull a guy off the field who's a starter because of his blocking (Cook) is a big factor - especially since after week 4 they would put him in motion instead of blocking and he'd run a route out into the flats.

But you can't ignore the TE/RB's failures and attribute it to the o-line.

if a back whiffs on a blitz pick up, that's not the tackle or guards fault

 

[iced]

This is fascinating. I looked this up because I wondered where we really do rank in pass protection.

At first I was just looking for average time in the pocket or time to throw. But that's really defined as much by the way plays are called/designed.

So how much does that really say? Of course coaches are going to try to design plays that suit their offensive line, but some will obviously be more conservative than others.

A way more interesting stat to see how your offensive line really ranks in terms of pass protection may just be the time to sack, and you can see on there, and granted this is for 2012, but it was all I can find and I do hope that I linked it correctly.

But yes, we are at the bottom. The ugly is there enough to get a good idea anyway.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/11/07/signature-stat-snapshot-time-to-throw/

I just found that interesting.

which is why we went out and signed J.Long.

in 2012 rams had a lot of issue with blitz's up the gut too - but then again how many different o-line combos did we have? no wells, dahl missed a lot of time, etc.

 

[Zaphod]

At what point are we supposed to have to rely on our RB and receiving TE to keep the QB clean? There's a problem if that is the case on any kind of regular basis.

Well exactly this. If you're running these formations with two tight ends or one TE one FB or two TE one FB you're going to really have to succeed on the run to get anything open for your one or two passing routes.

But just keeping it simple, the more you spread the field horizontally, the better your offensive linemen have to be.

 

[iced]

At what point are we supposed to have to rely on our RB and receiving TE to keep the QB clean? There's a problem if that is the case on any kind of regular basis.

And just another thought - you also need your backs and tight ends to help in pass pro when a team is constantly blitzing too. You're going to have to ask others to help if teams are trying to bring more than you block; Believe Ray Horton when he was with the cardinals blitzed some ridiculous amount of times (believe he was the highest or one of the highest in the league). Especially teams that have a lot of blitz packages or just blitz a lot (looking at our d. coordinator).

This is where the give and take battle lives with receiver vs o-line. You gotta have receivers that can get open quickly against a blitz - which we don't... and that's assuming they don't miss the pre-snap read like they've done time and time again.

 

[Angry Ram]

I thought some might find this information interesting. A lot has been made about the Rams need for a "#1 WR" in the draft because they currently don't have one. Often, people are arguing that Sam needs one to thrive in 2014. I believe this begs the question, is it realistic to expect a rookie to be able to be a #1 WR?

Another point that has been made is that we have to draft a WR with one of our first round picks or else there's no point because WRs outside the first round won't contribute enough to be #1 WRs. Is this actually true?

Here is some very interesting data from 2000 to the present.
Rookie WRs with 10+ receiving TDs
1. Mike Williams - 11 TDs (3rd Round Pick)

Rookie WRs with 1100+ receiving yards
1. Anquan Boldin - 1377 yards (2nd Round Pick)
2. Michael Clayton - 1193 yards (1st Round #15 Pick)

Rookie WRs with 1000 to 1099 receiving yards
1. A.J. Green - 1057 yards (1st Round #4 Pick)
2. Keenan Allen - 1046 yards (3rd Round Pick)
3. Marques Colston - 1038 yards (7th Round Pick)

Rookie WRs with 900 to 999 receiving yards
1. Dwayne Bowe - 993 yards (1st Round #23 Pick)
2. Eddie Royal - 980 yards (2nd Round Pick)
3. Andre Johnson - 976 yards (1st Round #3 Pick)
4. Mike Williams - 964 yards (3rd Round Pick)
5. Julio Jones - 959 yards (1st Round #6 Pick)
6. DeSean Jackson - 912 yards (2nd Round Pick)

Rookie WRs with 800 to 899 receiving yards
1. Chris Chambers - 883 yards (2nd Round Pick)
2. Justin Blackmon - 865 yards (1st Round #5 Pick)
3. T.Y. Hilton - 861 yards(3rd Round Pick)
4. Lee Evans - 843 yards(1st Round #13 Pick)
5. Torrey Smith - 841 yards (2nd Round Pick)
6. Santonio Holmes - 824 yards(1st Round #25 Pick)
7. Roy Williams - 817 yards (1st Round #7 Pick)
8. Josh Gordon - 805 yards (2nd Round Pick)
9. DeAndre Hopkins - 802 yards (1st Round #27 Pick)

That's 20 total players. Of the 20, 10 are first rounders(50%). But only 2 of the 5 1000+ yard WRs are first rounders(40%). Of the 20, 5 are top 10 picks(25%). Of the 20, 6 are second round picks(30%). Of the 20, 4 were drafted in the third round or later(20%).

800 yards is not a #1 WR benchmark. It's more of a #2 WR benchmark. So I'd say the expectation that a rookie will come in and be our immediate #1 WR is probably unrealistic. Being a solid #2 WR is a more realistic expectation from a highly drafted rookie.

In fact, over the last 50 years, only 3 rookie WRs managed to put up 1000+ yards AND 10+ TDs. They were Randy Moss of the Vikings, Bullet Bob Hayes of the Cowboys, and John Jefferson of the San Diego Chargers.

Yes, I know there's a big name missing from the list. Calvin Johnson put up 756 yards as a rookie WR in Detroit.

I'd also say that it's fair to conclude that there will be options outside of the top 15 picks and even the first round this year that can contribute similarly to the top drafted WRs as rookies.

Talk about skewing stats..

I would take any of those WRs performance their rookie year (excpet for Desean and possibly Justin Blackmon for other reasons) and the future.

Yeah, most of them are 1-3rd rounders. Just like any other position.

And why are you basing this off just their rookie season? A lot of them had/having great careers. Calvin Johnson only had 756 yards his rookie year? So what? Larry Fitzgerald and Torry Hold had 750ish yards their rookie year.

I have a feeling that you posted this to show your a no for Sammy Watkins. Well what if Sammy does have 750 yards and say, IDK 3 TDs. Is that bad? Could the Rams not rely upon him as their go-to guy based off his rookie season?

 

[Zaphod]

which is why we went out and signed J.Long.

in 2012 rams had a lot of issue with blitz's up the gut too - but then again how many different o-line combos did we have? no wells, dahl missed a lot of time, etc.

Beginning of the season, they had some success with the spread, but they also had some serious pressures and sacks in a very short amount of time.

Part of that was play design and part of it was just horrible pass protection.

 

[iced]

Talk about skewing stats..

I would take any of those WRs performance their rookie year (excpet for Desean and possibly Justin Blackmon for other reasons) and the future.

Yeah, most of them are 1-3rd rounders. Just like any other position.

And why are you basing this off just their rookie season? A lot of them had/having great careers. Calvin Johnson only had 756 yards his rookie year? So what? Larry Fitzgerald and Torry Hold had 750ish yards their rookie year.

I have a feeling that you posted this to show your a no for Sammy Watkins. Well what if Sammy does have 750 yards and say, IDK 3 TDs. Is that bad? Could the Rams not rely upon him as their go-to guy based off his rookie season?

Best part is i don't think he realizes that everyone on the list would be an upgrade over any Ram receiver - we haven't had one break 775 yards since Holt was here.

 

[iced]

Beginning of the season, they had some success with the spread, but they also had some serious pressures and sacks in a very short amount of time.

Part of that was play design and part of it was just horrible pass protection.

IMO - most of it was a combination of both..

Cooks snap counts
week 1 - 61 (91%)
week 2 - 59 (77%)
week 3 - 53 (76%)
week 4 - 56 (84%)
Scheme change
week 5 - 39 (53%)
week 6 - 27 (62%)
week 7 - 36 (59%)
week 8 - 50 (66%)

Harkey was the biggest beneficiary of Cook's snaps. Kendricks got a few more but he's usually been an outstanding blocker (and got a lot anyway).

Asking Cook to stop blocking was the best thing they did for Sam - and the run game.

 

[jrry32]

Talk about skewing stats..

I would take any of those WRs performance their rookie year (excpet for Desean and possibly Justin Blackmon for other reasons) and the future.

Yeah, most of them are 1-3rd rounders. Just like any other position.

And why are you basing this off just their rookie season? A lot of them had/having great careers. Calvin Johnson only had 756 yards his rookie year? So what? Larry Fitzgerald and Torry Hold had 750ish yards their rookie year.

I have a feeling that you posted this to show your a no for Sammy Watkins. Well what if Sammy does have 750 yards and say, IDK 3 TDs. Is that bad? Could the Rams not rely upon him as their go-to guy based off his rookie season?

No skewing here. Who wouldn't take those performances? The point is that many people say that the Rams must draft Watkins because we don't have a #1 WR for the 2014 season. My point is that expecting Watkins to be that as a rookie is unrealistic.

I'm basing it off their rookie season because that's a big argument of why we need Watkins...what he offers in 2014.

Am I a "no for Sammy Watkins"? You're quite off on that. I'm a no for Sammy Watkins at #2. But if he's the best value on the board in the top 10, I'm all for him. My point is that even if we draft Watkins, odds are that he's not going to give us #1 WR production as a rookie. If we're drafting him, we're doing so for what he'll give us beyond his rookie year.

While 750 yards and 3 TDs is good for a rookie WR...you can get the same sort of production from a guy like Brandon Gibson.

No, I do not believe the Rams can rely on a rookie WR to be their go to guy. That's the mistake they made last year.

 

[jrry32]

IMO - most of it was a combination of both..

Cooks snap counts
week 1 - 61 (91%)
week 2 - 59 (77%)
week 3 - 53 (76%)
week 4 - 56 (84%)
Scheme change
week 5 - 39 (53%)
week 6 - 27 (62%)
week 7 - 36 (59%)
week 8 - 50 (66%)

Harkey was the biggest beneficiary of Cook's snaps. Kendricks got a few more but he's usually been an outstanding blocker (and got a lot anyway).

Asking Cook to stop blocking was the best thing they did for Sam - and the run game.

How often was Cook blocking on passing downs?

 

[iced]

How often was Cook blocking on passing downs?

they stopped asking him after Week 4. He wasn't asked to block anymore - a lot of that became Harkey's role

Harkey snaps weeks 1 - 4:
0
2
3
6

weeks 5 - 8
40
24
16
38

 

[CGI_Ram]

Count me among the group not expecting Watkins or any rookie WR blowup the league in 2014.

But, you gotta break one in sometime. See 2013 Austin. He's officially house broken. Ready to step it up.

I'd gladly add a talent like Sammy to get the process started.

 

[jrry32]

they stopped asking him after Week 4. He wasn't asked to block anymore - a lot of that became Harkey's role

Harkey snaps weeks 1 - 4:
0
2
3
6

weeks 5 - 8
40
24
16
38

Again, that doesn't answer my question. Harkey was used as a FB mainly in the 21 and 22 personnel sets we were running over that period of time. We barely ever used a FB in the first 4 weeks.

I don't remember Cook blocking much at all on passing downs. I remember him whiffing on that Int TD vs. Arizona on a boot-leg and he might have blocked on a few other boot-legs or roll-outs to sell it. But I don't recall the Rams keeping Cook in to pass block much at all.