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http://espn.go.com/nfl/insider/stor...-jay-cutler-rank-10-most-overpaid-players-nfl
Whenever a team signs a player to a big contract, there is always the concern that the player won't live up to that deal. If a team has enough of these players and can't easily get out of the contracts, that could push the franchise back years and get a lot of people fired.
Yesterday I looked at the NFL's most underpaid veterans -- guys no longer on a rookie deal -- and today we'll see who's the most overpaid. One way to figure out who the most overpaid players in the NFL are is by looking at the Jahnke Value Model, which determines how much money a player should be counting against the cap based on how well he plays. When you compare that to how much he actually is counting against the cap (according to OverTheCap.com), that leaves us with a quantitative answer on exactly how much he is being overpaid.
In some cases a player hasn't lived up to his contract simply due to injury, and for the purposes of this top 10 list those players were ignored; we're not having bad luck count against them. This just leaves the players who aren't playing as well as their contracts suggest they should be.
1. Charles Johnson, 4-3 DE, Carolina Panthers
2015 cap hit: $20.0 million
2015 JVM: $6.2 million
Value differential: $13.8 million
In 2011, Charles Johnson signed a six-year deal with the Panthers. It was structured so that his cap hit would be enormous in 2015, but if he was cut it would give Carolina $14 million in dead money. With the lack of other options on the roster, the Panthers had no choice but to keep Johnson.
The problem is that Johnson is being paid as if he's the best pass-rusher in the league, but he is top 10 at best. In six of the first seven games of the 2014 season, he had four or fewer pressures. While he improved as the season went on, his sack total has been decreasing each of the past few seasons. He was a liability against the run, and his seven missed tackles were among the most for 4-3 defensive ends.
There is no question that he still deserves to be a respectable starter in this league; just not as the defensive player with the largest cap hit in 2015.
2. Mario Williams, 3-4 OLB, Buffalo Bills
2015 cap hit: $19.4 million
2015 JVM: $6.6 million
Value differential: $12.8 million
To bring Mario Williams to Buffalo in 2012, it took a monster contract. The Bills likely signed Williams with the thought that he would be at least a top-five pass-rusher for several years. Williams hasn't been a bust with the Bills, and his raw sack numbers have been very good, but if you dig a little deeper you'll see that he simply hasn't ranked among the best pass-rushers in the league with his recent play.
Teammate Jerry Hughes had more pressures on the quarterback than Williams did last season (61 to 60), and there were 12 other edge rushers who recorded more pressures than Hughes. Williams' cap hit is more than twice as big as the Bills' other key players on the defensive front -- Hughes, Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus -- but you could argue that all three have been playing better than Williams has recently.
3. Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants
2015 cap hit: $19.7 million
2015 JVM: $7.6 million
Value differential: $12.1 million
There was a time, after Manning's second Super Bowl run, when it looked as though he might justify being one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the NFL. However, Manning has been incredibly average over the past two seasons, and as he enters the final year of his contract, he has the second-highest cap hit for a quarterback in 2015 (just behind Drew Brees).
Manning's accuracy percentage of 72.5 was just the 24th best of 39 quarterbacks, and his numbers against pressure and on deep throws weren't much better. Having Odell Beckham Jr. helped Manning's overall stat line look good in 2014, but that had a lot more to do with Beckham than with Manning.
Manning will be a 35-year-old free agent next offseason, and the Giants will need to decide between potentially overpaying him again and starting over at the quarterback position.
4. Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions
2015 cap hit: $20.6 million
2015 JVM: $8.8 million
Value differential: $10 million
There was a time when Megatron was the unquestioned No. 1 wide receiver in the NFL. This past season, players like Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham Jr. were fighting for that crown, and the two of them combined won't be making as much as Johnson will this season. In fact, the only wide receivers who have a cap hit within $8 million of Johnson were the receivers who received the franchise tag.
From 2011 to 2013, Johnson ranked among the top six in PFF's yards per route run metric, including leading the league in 2013 at 2.72. He regressed in 2014 to 2.29, good for just 10th best in the league. He turns 30 on Sept. 29, and after this season he still has four years left on his contract with a cap hit of over $17 million in all four years. Despite his tremendous talent, Johnson will likely remain among the overpaid for the next several seasons.
5. Brandon Carr, CB, Dallas Cowboys
2015 cap hit: $12.7 million
2015 JVM: $1.8 million
Value differential: $10.9 million
There have been plenty of rumors that Carr could be cut or asked to take a pay cut this offseason, but at this point the Cowboys are stuck paying Carr a ton of money for the 2015 season. While most players on this list are still quality starters who are simply being paid more than they deserve, Carr was an outright liability for the Cowboys last season.
When quarterbacks targeted the receiver Carr was covering, they had an NFL Passer Rating of 116.6. His 849 yards allowed was the seventh-most yards allowed by a cornerback last year.
The Cowboys drafted UConn defensive back Byron Jones in the first round of the draft, so they could very well be planning for life without Carr already.
6. Patrick Peterson, CB, Arizona Cardinals
2015 cap hit: $14.8M
2015 JVM: $5.6M
Value differential: $9.2M
Peterson was rewarded with a contract extension after an excellent 2013 campaign. The problem is he followed that up with a forgettable 2014 season.
He allowed eight touchdowns, which tied for third most in the NFL behind David Amerson and Bradley Fletcher. In plenty of games he held his own, but he allowed nine catches for 174 receiving yards against the Falcons, and five catches for 122 yards against Washington.
Part of Peterson's outstanding play in 2013 had to do with the fact that he tracked the opposing team's No. 1 receiver across the formation (although rarely in the slot), but in 2014 he primarily stayed at left cornerback, regardless of which WR lined up across from him. He is still clearly the Cardinals' top outside cornerback, and he was playing hurt for much of the season, but Arizona needs to hope he returns to his 2013 form -- because the Cardinals are tied to him for a while.
7. Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings
2015 cap hit: $15.4M
2015 JVM: $6.2M
Value differential: $9.2M
Only seven running backs in the league have a cap hit in 2015 above $5 million. The only one above $10 million is Peterson, and he has a cap hit more than $6 million above the next-highest-paid back.
If we were talking about the 2012 version of Peterson, then this contract might make some sense. But it has been a few years since we've seen Peterson at his best, and it's not just related to last season's off-field issues, which kept him off the field in all but one game. During the 2013 season, he tied his career low with 3.0 yards after contact per carry. Some of that can be blamed on a deteriorating offensive line, but it's also a sign that he has slid a bit since his dominant 2012 season.
None of this is to say Peterson isn't a very good player, or even that he isn't the league's best running back. But what we can definitively say is he doesn't deserve to be making 150 percent more than all other running backs. He is not a receiving threat nor is he a good blocker, and now that he's over age 30 and showing signs of decline, the odds are stacked against him for living up to the rest of his contract.
8. Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears
2015 cap hit: $16.5 million
2015 JVM: $7.4 million
Value differential: $9.1 million
Cutler was one of the most disappointing players in the NFL last season, after cashing in with a big contract in the offseason. Typically, even the worst starting QBs can find success in the NFL when they aren't under pressure, but Cutler defied that in 2014: When Cutler was free of pressure, he managed only 6.8 yards per attempt, and a 16-to-13 touchdown to interception rate. It wasn't any prettier when he had to face the blitz.
It would have been a salary-cap nightmare for the Bears to let go of Cutler this year, and even next year it wouldn't lead to much in the way of cap savings unless they trade him. Ideally for Chicago, Cutler can return to being a good but not great quarterback this season. Regardless of how he plays, the Bears are stuck with him for at least one or two more seasons.
9. Jared Allen, 3-4 OLB, Chicago Bears
2015 cap hit: $12.5 million
2015 JVM: $4.0 million
Value differential: $8.5 million
After choosing not to re-sign Julius Peppers, the Bears instead elected to sign Allen. After seven straight seasons with double-digit sacks, Allen managed just six sacks on 522 pass rushes over the course of the 2014 season. On a per-play basis, Allen was merely average at getting pressure on the quarterback, yet he is still being paid as if he's one of the better pass-rushers in the league. He is now 33 and going through a position change, so if anything, his production is likely to decrease again in 2015.
Due to the contract that Allen signed, it won't be until next offseason that the Bears can cut him and save cap space in the process. Their biggest free-agent addition was Pernell McPhee, and Lamarr Houston is returning from injury, so Allen will likely be just a part-time player this season. It's very unlikely the Bears will ever get their money's worth out of their 2014 free-agent gamble.
10. Michael Griffin, FS, Tennessee Titans
2015 cap hit: $8.1 million
2015 JVM: $0.8 million
Value differential: $7.3 million
On most teams, Griffin would have been benched by this point. But the Titans don't have any depth at safety, so at this stage it looks as if we'll see yet another year of Griffin as a starter.
When quarterbacks threw toward the receivers Griffin was targeting, quarterbacks had an NFL passer rating of 111.4. After the receiver caught the ball or once a running back got close to him, Griffin missed 17 tackles. He managed to grade out below average by PFF standards in run defense, in coverage, as a pass-rusher and in penalties. Griffin has another year under contract after the 2015 season, but by that point he might become a cap cut.
Whenever a team signs a player to a big contract, there is always the concern that the player won't live up to that deal. If a team has enough of these players and can't easily get out of the contracts, that could push the franchise back years and get a lot of people fired.
Yesterday I looked at the NFL's most underpaid veterans -- guys no longer on a rookie deal -- and today we'll see who's the most overpaid. One way to figure out who the most overpaid players in the NFL are is by looking at the Jahnke Value Model, which determines how much money a player should be counting against the cap based on how well he plays. When you compare that to how much he actually is counting against the cap (according to OverTheCap.com), that leaves us with a quantitative answer on exactly how much he is being overpaid.
In some cases a player hasn't lived up to his contract simply due to injury, and for the purposes of this top 10 list those players were ignored; we're not having bad luck count against them. This just leaves the players who aren't playing as well as their contracts suggest they should be.
1. Charles Johnson, 4-3 DE, Carolina Panthers
2015 cap hit: $20.0 million
2015 JVM: $6.2 million
Value differential: $13.8 million
In 2011, Charles Johnson signed a six-year deal with the Panthers. It was structured so that his cap hit would be enormous in 2015, but if he was cut it would give Carolina $14 million in dead money. With the lack of other options on the roster, the Panthers had no choice but to keep Johnson.
The problem is that Johnson is being paid as if he's the best pass-rusher in the league, but he is top 10 at best. In six of the first seven games of the 2014 season, he had four or fewer pressures. While he improved as the season went on, his sack total has been decreasing each of the past few seasons. He was a liability against the run, and his seven missed tackles were among the most for 4-3 defensive ends.
There is no question that he still deserves to be a respectable starter in this league; just not as the defensive player with the largest cap hit in 2015.
2. Mario Williams, 3-4 OLB, Buffalo Bills
2015 cap hit: $19.4 million
2015 JVM: $6.6 million
Value differential: $12.8 million
To bring Mario Williams to Buffalo in 2012, it took a monster contract. The Bills likely signed Williams with the thought that he would be at least a top-five pass-rusher for several years. Williams hasn't been a bust with the Bills, and his raw sack numbers have been very good, but if you dig a little deeper you'll see that he simply hasn't ranked among the best pass-rushers in the league with his recent play.
Teammate Jerry Hughes had more pressures on the quarterback than Williams did last season (61 to 60), and there were 12 other edge rushers who recorded more pressures than Hughes. Williams' cap hit is more than twice as big as the Bills' other key players on the defensive front -- Hughes, Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus -- but you could argue that all three have been playing better than Williams has recently.
3. Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants
2015 cap hit: $19.7 million
2015 JVM: $7.6 million
Value differential: $12.1 million
There was a time, after Manning's second Super Bowl run, when it looked as though he might justify being one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the NFL. However, Manning has been incredibly average over the past two seasons, and as he enters the final year of his contract, he has the second-highest cap hit for a quarterback in 2015 (just behind Drew Brees).
Manning's accuracy percentage of 72.5 was just the 24th best of 39 quarterbacks, and his numbers against pressure and on deep throws weren't much better. Having Odell Beckham Jr. helped Manning's overall stat line look good in 2014, but that had a lot more to do with Beckham than with Manning.
Manning will be a 35-year-old free agent next offseason, and the Giants will need to decide between potentially overpaying him again and starting over at the quarterback position.
4. Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions
2015 cap hit: $20.6 million
2015 JVM: $8.8 million
Value differential: $10 million
There was a time when Megatron was the unquestioned No. 1 wide receiver in the NFL. This past season, players like Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham Jr. were fighting for that crown, and the two of them combined won't be making as much as Johnson will this season. In fact, the only wide receivers who have a cap hit within $8 million of Johnson were the receivers who received the franchise tag.
From 2011 to 2013, Johnson ranked among the top six in PFF's yards per route run metric, including leading the league in 2013 at 2.72. He regressed in 2014 to 2.29, good for just 10th best in the league. He turns 30 on Sept. 29, and after this season he still has four years left on his contract with a cap hit of over $17 million in all four years. Despite his tremendous talent, Johnson will likely remain among the overpaid for the next several seasons.
5. Brandon Carr, CB, Dallas Cowboys
2015 cap hit: $12.7 million
2015 JVM: $1.8 million
Value differential: $10.9 million
There have been plenty of rumors that Carr could be cut or asked to take a pay cut this offseason, but at this point the Cowboys are stuck paying Carr a ton of money for the 2015 season. While most players on this list are still quality starters who are simply being paid more than they deserve, Carr was an outright liability for the Cowboys last season.
When quarterbacks targeted the receiver Carr was covering, they had an NFL Passer Rating of 116.6. His 849 yards allowed was the seventh-most yards allowed by a cornerback last year.
The Cowboys drafted UConn defensive back Byron Jones in the first round of the draft, so they could very well be planning for life without Carr already.
6. Patrick Peterson, CB, Arizona Cardinals
2015 cap hit: $14.8M
2015 JVM: $5.6M
Value differential: $9.2M
Peterson was rewarded with a contract extension after an excellent 2013 campaign. The problem is he followed that up with a forgettable 2014 season.
He allowed eight touchdowns, which tied for third most in the NFL behind David Amerson and Bradley Fletcher. In plenty of games he held his own, but he allowed nine catches for 174 receiving yards against the Falcons, and five catches for 122 yards against Washington.
Part of Peterson's outstanding play in 2013 had to do with the fact that he tracked the opposing team's No. 1 receiver across the formation (although rarely in the slot), but in 2014 he primarily stayed at left cornerback, regardless of which WR lined up across from him. He is still clearly the Cardinals' top outside cornerback, and he was playing hurt for much of the season, but Arizona needs to hope he returns to his 2013 form -- because the Cardinals are tied to him for a while.
7. Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings
2015 cap hit: $15.4M
2015 JVM: $6.2M
Value differential: $9.2M
Only seven running backs in the league have a cap hit in 2015 above $5 million. The only one above $10 million is Peterson, and he has a cap hit more than $6 million above the next-highest-paid back.
If we were talking about the 2012 version of Peterson, then this contract might make some sense. But it has been a few years since we've seen Peterson at his best, and it's not just related to last season's off-field issues, which kept him off the field in all but one game. During the 2013 season, he tied his career low with 3.0 yards after contact per carry. Some of that can be blamed on a deteriorating offensive line, but it's also a sign that he has slid a bit since his dominant 2012 season.
None of this is to say Peterson isn't a very good player, or even that he isn't the league's best running back. But what we can definitively say is he doesn't deserve to be making 150 percent more than all other running backs. He is not a receiving threat nor is he a good blocker, and now that he's over age 30 and showing signs of decline, the odds are stacked against him for living up to the rest of his contract.
8. Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears
2015 cap hit: $16.5 million
2015 JVM: $7.4 million
Value differential: $9.1 million
Cutler was one of the most disappointing players in the NFL last season, after cashing in with a big contract in the offseason. Typically, even the worst starting QBs can find success in the NFL when they aren't under pressure, but Cutler defied that in 2014: When Cutler was free of pressure, he managed only 6.8 yards per attempt, and a 16-to-13 touchdown to interception rate. It wasn't any prettier when he had to face the blitz.
It would have been a salary-cap nightmare for the Bears to let go of Cutler this year, and even next year it wouldn't lead to much in the way of cap savings unless they trade him. Ideally for Chicago, Cutler can return to being a good but not great quarterback this season. Regardless of how he plays, the Bears are stuck with him for at least one or two more seasons.
9. Jared Allen, 3-4 OLB, Chicago Bears
2015 cap hit: $12.5 million
2015 JVM: $4.0 million
Value differential: $8.5 million
After choosing not to re-sign Julius Peppers, the Bears instead elected to sign Allen. After seven straight seasons with double-digit sacks, Allen managed just six sacks on 522 pass rushes over the course of the 2014 season. On a per-play basis, Allen was merely average at getting pressure on the quarterback, yet he is still being paid as if he's one of the better pass-rushers in the league. He is now 33 and going through a position change, so if anything, his production is likely to decrease again in 2015.
Due to the contract that Allen signed, it won't be until next offseason that the Bears can cut him and save cap space in the process. Their biggest free-agent addition was Pernell McPhee, and Lamarr Houston is returning from injury, so Allen will likely be just a part-time player this season. It's very unlikely the Bears will ever get their money's worth out of their 2014 free-agent gamble.
10. Michael Griffin, FS, Tennessee Titans
2015 cap hit: $8.1 million
2015 JVM: $0.8 million
Value differential: $7.3 million
On most teams, Griffin would have been benched by this point. But the Titans don't have any depth at safety, so at this stage it looks as if we'll see yet another year of Griffin as a starter.
When quarterbacks threw toward the receivers Griffin was targeting, quarterbacks had an NFL passer rating of 111.4. After the receiver caught the ball or once a running back got close to him, Griffin missed 17 tackles. He managed to grade out below average by PFF standards in run defense, in coverage, as a pass-rusher and in penalties. Griffin has another year under contract after the 2015 season, but by that point he might become a cap cut.
