Intriguing Matchup: Case Keenum vs. Baltimore Blitz
Posted by: Bernie Miklasz i
http://www.101sports.com/2015/11/20/intriguing-matchup-casey-keenum-vs-baltimore-blitz/
OK, so it isn’t exactly Dan Marino taking aim at the infamous 1985 Chicago Bears defense. This isn’t Kurt Warner and the “Greatest Show” Rams cast taking their performance art into Baltimore to challenge Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs.
But with the Rams changing their starting quarterback, trying to wrestle their way back to .500 and revive their faint playoff hopes in Sunday’s game in Baltimore offers a little something extra to go with the Chesapeake Bay-style crab cakes and Maryland crab soup I plan to make in time for kickoff.
Before we get into it, let’s set the premise:
— New Rams quarterback Case Keenum has made 10 NFL starts, all with Houston. Keenum hasn’t distinguished himself. He’s no long-time starter or lasting solution. But with the Rams passing game in a torpor under somnolent quarterback Nick Foles, a shakeup makes sense. Keenum can be a string of firecrackers. He can jar the Rams’ passivity on offense. He can extend plays by roaming to his left or right. He likes to heave the long ball, and can make some connections. That string of firecrackers makes noise, draws some attention, then quickly burns out. But the Rams don’t need Keenum to be Johnny Unitas. They just need him to make some plays.
— Torn by injuries, the Baltimore defense is no longer the Baltimore defense. The Ravens have allowed an average of 25.4 points on offense per game, ranking 28th among the 32 teams. They’ve been stung by 34 completions of 20+ yards. They rank 30th in third-down defense, yielding for a conversion rate of 45.1 percent. Opposing quarterbacks have pitched their way to a 101.4 passer rating (2They’ve given up 35 “quick-strike” points this season — scores that come on possessions that last fewer than four plays. And the league average for quick-strike points is 25. The Ravens have allowed opponents to put points up on 44 percent of their offensive possessions; that ranks 30th. This defense has only five takeaways. This defense has been seared for 18 touchdown passes and made only four interceptions. (Where have you gone, Bobby Boyd? Where’s Rick Volk? Has anyone in Bawlmer seen Mike Curtis?)
In other words: you can make plays against this Baltimore defense.
Big plays at that. And while there’s no reason to expect sharp consistency from Keenum, he does have that helter-skelter style that you’d find on a playground. It’s oddly threatening to a defense that prefers going after the stationary Foles. But Keenum could be running around so much, we may see him fling a few passes from the adjacent Camden Yards.
To compensate for their loose pass defense, the Ravens have cranked up the blitz. You know: mug the quarterback before he can lock in on a downfield target. Only seven NFL defenses have blitzed more frequently on passing downs than Baltimore this season. And the blitzkrieg can inflict some damage; the Ravens have 15 of their 24 sacks when sending extra pass rushers.
But if the opposing QB can see through the heat waves and deliver the ball, it’s party time.
The Ravens have blitzed on 114 passing downs. Let’s look through the rubble:
Quarterbacks have completed 74 of 114 passes against the Baltimore blitz, or 65 percent.
The QBs have 1,173 “blitz” passing yards vs. the Ravens — the most allowed by an NFL defense.
Their yards per passing attempt vs. the Baltimore blitz is an inflated 10.29 yards; that ranks 31st.
When give time to throw, the QBs have beaten this blitz for 12 completions of 25+ yards.
Quarterbacks have charred the Baltimore blitz for 11 touchdown passes (tied for most in the NFL) with just one INT.
When the Ravens blitz, opponents have counterattacked for a 127.6 passer rating.
Yeah. I’d say you can make some plays when the Ravens send extra rushers after your QB.
Now, there’s no guarantee the Ravens will release the hounds on Keenum. After looking at the Rams’ pass-protection issues, the Ravens’ defensive coaches may conclude that it makes sense to go with a four-man pass rush. Keenum isn’t the most accurate passer, so it makes sense to put the emphasis on coverage and reduce the number of blitzes. Why give Keenum a chance to wriggle or scamper from your blitz to find an uncovered receiver downfield?
On the other hand …
For all of his Run Rabbit Run! moments, Keenum doesn’t have killer career numbers vs. the blitz. He’s completed 48 of 105 passes (45.7%), been sacked 11 times, thrown two touchdown passes with one INT, and a 68.8 rating. Keenum has banged the blitz for nine passes of 25+ yards, so the playmaking threat is there.
So we’ll have to see how this all goes down if the Ravens choose to aggressively attack the Rams’ vulnerable O-line with blitzes.
But you have to think that Fisher had the Baltimore blitz in mind when he decided to go with Keenum over Foles. Early in the season Foles was very effective when blitz, but that performance deteriorated over his last five starts. Beginning with the game at Green Bay on Oct. 11, Foles has completed only 15 of 36 passes when blitzed (42%) with a passer rating of 51.7.
As Nick Wagoner pointed out in his Rams’ coverage at ESPN.com, Keenum is superior to Foles on throws attempted outside the pocket. In his nine games Foles hit on 14 of 35 passes for 138 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions for a passer rating of 51.8. And in his 10 NFL starts, Keenum has completed 21 of 43 for 398 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions for a passer rating of 86.5.
I don’t think Fisher made the switch without studying the numbers and the video. There were plenty of reasons for benching Foles, but the matchup with Baltimore is also a matter of good timing.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie