Pick 19 - WE HAVE A 1ST ROUND PICK

[Allen2McVay]

Word is Penix and Nix didn't look great. Rattler looked the best, but just steady and okay.

Thought Penix looked OK but Nix seemed to struggle with accuracy.

Think it’s kind of useless to evaluate off a half-a-dozen reps. Also think YouTube highlights can be misleading.

I don't watch any college football, so I don't really have favorite players. I don't try to evaluate.
Think of myself as nothing but a compiler of Draft-information. After the NFL season ... really, after the Rams season ends ... I read and watch everything I can to see if there is a consensus on player evaluations.

I watch highlights just to get a sense of athleticism. Sometimes, things just jump out.

Quick example. In January 2023, I watched some highlights of Pittsburgh DL Calijah Kancey.
Started a thread about Kancey and wrote this:
"Not saying the Rams should draft him; and I don't know how high Kancey will go. Think his Combine and work-outs will have a huge impact. Also do not watch enough college football to have a strong opinion; and, as I wrote, highlights can be very misleading.

All that being said, I thought Kancey's highlights warranted a thread. They are that impressive in my opinion. Just watched a completely different set of highlights, and Kancey's quickness off the snap, coupled with legit pass-rush moves jump-out to me. Furthermore, as a short lineman, his use of leverage is crucial.

Very interested to see how the coming months and the draft process plays-out for this guy."

Had several posters push-back, thought he was a late-round-pick or undrafted free agent. One referenced a Draft Expert who had Kancey going in the fifth round. I was just looking at what I thought was an impressive athletic skill-set. A month later, I posted about his strong Combine workouts.

Kancey went at #19 ... the pick the Rams currently hold. Had a pretty good rookie season as a top-back-up.

 

[Kupped]

One guy I'm becoming more interested in in the first round is Darius Robinson from Miss.
He's just the kind of versatile Edge that would be a shit-ton of fun to have on a D. Not only can he be an edge.. he can easily move inside on passing downs.
I can easily imagine the Rams adding him and Danielle Hunter... My goodness.. the options that front could have.

 

[blackbart]

I absolutely hate the BPA myth, who knows what that means and who it could be???

Without knowing what is going to happen in FA, I am leaning toward CB. Most of the defense out performed expectations last year and I don’t expect that again this year, they need better talent outside the numbers.

 

[TheTackle]

View attachment 64322

He declared? This changes everything

 

[Kupped]

I absolutely hate the BPA myth, who knows what that means and who it could be???

Without knowing what is going to happen in FA, I am leaning toward CB. Most of the defense out performed expectations last year and I don’t expect that again this year, they need better talent outside the numbers.

BPA … such a myth.

The whole idea drives me batty, lol.

 

[ottoman89]

He declared? This changes everything

Oh yeah. Awhile ago.

 

[OntarioRam]

BPA … such a myth.

The whole idea drives me batty, lol.

Agreed.

BPA makes sense in other sports. I'm a big NHL fan, like many Canadians. Most 1st round picks in hockey are 3 years away from making an impact. Sometimes even 5ish. Take the BPA every time. It is way too challenging to draft for need in that ecosystem. Team needs can change drastically from year-to-year. BPA only makes sense when your draft pick is several years away from contributing. 1st round NFL draft picks ought to make an impact right away. You should generally just draft what you need. If you think you have a generational talent somehow falling into your lap, like the Rams had with Donald, take him and find a way to make room.

 

[PARAM]

Surprised this isn't a thread yet. Wtf are we doing at 19???

Our first 1st round pick in 8 years.

WR??
CB?
OLB?
OL?
BPA?

Trade down for another 3rd and 6th.

With the Rams history, odds of either trading it for a player or trading back - either way, not making a pick in the first round - have to be at what, 75%?

Quite right.

The Rams will have a short list of players they are willing to use their R1.19 pick on. Spitballing here:
-If one of them is left they use the R1.19 pick
-If none of them are left they’ll trade out of R1 to pick up multiple top 100 picks. Hypothetical trade with Cards: R1.19/R6.191 for R2.34/R3.68/R4.104
-If multiple players are left they trade back but stay in R1. Hypothetical trade with Bills: R1.19/R3.100 for R1.28/R2.60/R5.162.

IF there's a couple of things I think I've learned about the Rams draft approach the last 7 years, it would be we never know what they're gonna do. And we never know who they're interested in drafting. I wouldn't be shocked if they traded up in the first round and took a TE. Or a WR.

 

[Ram Ts]

If they resign Dotson, I’d love if they picked Jackson Powers-Johnson. Ragnow is a force at center. Oh looks like he could be the same.

The idea of an interior OL for years to come consisting of Avila, PJ and Dotson is dreamy. Power run up the gut.

 

[Kupped]

Agreed.

BPA makes sense in other sports. I'm a big NHL fan, like many Canadians. Most 1st round picks in hockey are 3 years away from making an impact. Sometimes even 5ish. Take the BPA every time. It is way too challenging to draft for need in that ecosystem. Team needs can change drastically from year-to-year. BPA only makes sense when your draft pick is several years away from contributing. 1st round NFL draft picks ought to make an impact right away. You should generally just draft what you need. If you think you have a generational talent somehow falling into your lap, like the Rams had with Donald, take him and find a way to make room.

Yeah.. there's no minor league development.. you have a limited roster and need players on it who can produce at every position ASAP.

 

[WestCoastRam]

Agreed.

BPA makes sense in other sports. I'm a big NHL fan, like many Canadians. Most 1st round picks in hockey are 3 years away from making an impact. Sometimes even 5ish. Take the BPA every time. It is way too challenging to draft for need in that ecosystem. Team needs can change drastically from year-to-year. BPA only makes sense when your draft pick is several years away from contributing. 1st round NFL draft picks ought to make an impact right away. You should generally just draft what you need. If you think you have a generational talent somehow falling into your lap, like the Rams had with Donald, take him and find a way to make room.

I mean, it's not a myth. It's not bigfoot. I sorta agree with your assessment but might put it this way:

The pick should maximize the benefit to the team. Sometimes that will be a pure BPA. Sometimes that's BPA within reason. Sometimes that's a trade up or trade down when need doesn't align with BPA at a certain spot.

For example: I'm not sure if we're in the market for an edge (maybe not due to FA) if there's one at 19 that will be a BPA. That's cool, cause maybe there's a BPA at corner there. But what if the BPA is WR, not corner there. Well, WR is a faint position of need and maybe the guys really really good? I'd say take him. If the BPA available is a QB or DT (for example), might be worth seeing if we can move out of the spot as it doesn't exactly align with our needs.

 

[Kupped]

Trade down for another 3rd and 6th.

Quite right.

IF there's a couple of things I think I've learned about the Rams draft approach the last 7 years, it would be we never know what they're gonna do. And we never know who they're interested in drafting. I wouldn't be shocked if they traded up in the first round and took a TE. Or a WR.

It's going to be very fun to watch.

Last time they were in this spot and traded back.. they had mixed results... if we're being generous.

So.. who'd they miss out on by trading out of the first? And then trading back two more times in the 2nd?
Deebo.. Dalton Eisner.. Elgton Jenkins.. Erik McCoy.. AJ Brown..
They ended up with Taylor Rapp.. a functional safety who had limitations.
For the trade back with Atl, they ended up with David Long.. a disappointment.. who actually made a few plays in the playoffs of '21.
They also ended up with Darrell Henderson, Bobby Evans, Greg Gaines, David Edwards, Nick Scott and Dakota Allen.

It wasn't a good draft.. but wasn't a disaster.
The 3rd round was basically a disaster.. the opposite of this year.
They missed out on guys like Dremont Jones.. David Montgomery.. Terry McLaurin.. Dawson Knox.. Quincy Williams..
But.. they did get several guys who made significant contributions to the SB.

I'm good with trading back.. but they don't need to do it too much this year. I think a combo of trading back and trading up could net them 7 picks in the first 4 rounds. I like the sound of that.

 

[PhillyRam]

19 is an interesting spot.
I feel like they could easily drop 15 spots and get a player in the same tier in this draft.
But, like others have said... no idea what's really going to happen until we see what they're doing in FA.

They have enough needs that dropping back 5 or 6 spots for an extra 3rd does make sense. Someone will be there that will help. Hell, even if its a top DL that drops, it would not hurt to take him and then with the extra 3rd you can still address the secondary or the OL, etc...

 

[PhillyRam]

It's going to be very fun to watch.

Last time they were in this spot and traded back.. they had mixed results... if we're being generous.

So.. who'd they miss out on by trading out of the first? And then trading back two more times in the 2nd?
Deebo.. Dalton Eisner.. Elgton Jenkins.. Erik McCoy.. AJ Brown..
They ended up with Taylor Rapp.. a functional safety who had limitations.
For the trade back with Atl, they ended up with David Long.. a disappointment.. who actually made a few plays in the playoffs of '21.
They also ended up with Darrell Henderson, Bobby Evans, Greg Gaines, David Edwards, Nick Scott and Dakota Allen.

It wasn't a good draft.. but wasn't a disaster.
The 3rd round was basically a disaster.. the opposite of this year.
They missed out on guys like Dremont Jones.. David Montgomery.. Terry McLaurin.. Dawson Knox.. Quincy Williams..
But.. they did get several guys who made significant contributions to the SB.

I'm good with trading back.. but they don't need to do it too much this year. I think a combo of trading back and trading up could net them 7 picks in the first 4 rounds. I like the sound of that.

Agree...they don't need four 6th rd picks this year, especially after a 14 pick draft class last yr. Get as many picks in that top 150 as possible.

 

[PhillyRam]

It's going to be very fun to watch.

Last time they were in this spot and traded back.. they had mixed results... if we're being generous.

So.. who'd they miss out on by trading out of the first? And then trading back two more times in the 2nd?
Deebo.. Dalton Eisner.. Elgton Jenkins.. Erik McCoy.. AJ Brown..
They ended up with Taylor Rapp.. a functional safety who had limitations.
For the trade back with Atl, they ended up with David Long.. a disappointment.. who actually made a few plays in the playoffs of '21.
They also ended up with Darrell Henderson, Bobby Evans, Greg Gaines, David Edwards, Nick Scott and Dakota Allen.

It wasn't a good draft.. but wasn't a disaster.
The 3rd round was basically a disaster.. the opposite of this year.
They missed out on guys like Dremont Jones.. David Montgomery.. Terry McLaurin.. Dawson Knox.. Quincy Williams..
But.. they did get several guys who made significant contributions to the SB.

I'm good with trading back.. but they don't need to do it too much this year. I think a combo of trading back and trading up could net them 7 picks in the first 4 rounds. I like the sound of that.

I wouldn't have a problem of trading a 6th this yr for a 5th next yr or a 5th for a 4th next yr. They may need more picks in 25' if they end up trading up next yr for a QB.

 

[Ramstien]

As everyone knows everything depends on what happens in free agency but the more, I think about it if McCarthy the QB from Michigan is there I say he should be the pick to be the Rams QB of the future. If not him I say one of the top CB in the draft.

 

[Memphis Ram]

BPA only makes sense when your draft pick is several years away from contributing. 1st round NFL draft picks ought to make an impact right away. You should generally just draft what you need.

That logic works if said selection was guaranteed to make an immediate impact and if team needs influence player availability. But neither are true.

If teams want to increase their chances of success, it simply makes sense for teams to select the BPA within reason on their draft board and attempt to fill needs with veteran free agents or trades. The draft is too much of a crapshoot to take chances. Need based drafting can put a body in a position, but the need may still exist due to the lack of an immediate impact, if any at all.

 

[Merlin]

Hard to think he'd be avail but I'd fly to the draft and run up the card for him. There could be a scenario where we trade to top 10ish for him. Could cost a bit. With his injury history, do you want to give up additional draft capital for him?

I think you'd need to have a board (and an accurate one) to make a good determination of what point it's worth it to move up for him. Don't have the time or expertise for all that. But I would say if he gets to oh idk say 15ish maybe you start making calls. I would at least. Give them Tutu or something.

 

[thirteen28]

Our first 1st round pick

Ok, I'm having trouble with your post ... could you explain this strange concept of "1st round pick"? What does that even mean???

 

[WestCoastRam]

I think you'd need to have a board (and an accurate one) to make a good determination of what point it's worth it to move up for him. Don't have the time or expertise for all that. But I would say if he gets to oh idk say 15ish maybe you start making calls. I would at least. Give them Tutu or something.

Also, let's see what we do at edge in FA. It's all fun and games till we see what the Rams do there.