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https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-complete-nfl-playoff-predictions-through-super-bowl-52
Complete NFL playoff predictions through Super Bowl 52
BY PFF ANALYSIS TEAM
The 2017 NFL regular season is officially over, which means there will be less talk of George’s Savior from San Francisco and more about how much homefield advantage matters in the playoffs. While some mainstays like the Patriots, Steelers and Chiefs remain among the AFC’s best, eight of the 12 teams earning playoff berths this season were out of the hunt last year, including the top five seeds in the NFC.
Oddly, one of the league’s worst divisions (in our estimation) had two teams make the tournament, while the Buffalo Bills made the playoffs for the first time since 1999. The top three seeds in the NFC are playing quarterbacks that had previously struggled for Jeff Fisher’s Rams, while each of the three players quarterbacking the lower three seeds in the NFC have carried their teams to a Super Bowl appearance during their career.
With such uncertainty (at least on one side of the bracket), handicapping this season’s playoffs is going to be one of the most interesting tasks we’ve undertaken so far. Using our PFFELO system, as well our metrics that go into our weekly spread and over/under picks, we’ve simulated the playoffs a few thousand times to determine the probability of each team advancing past each round, as well as the probability of each team winning the Super Bowl. These will be updated each week to reflect the results from the previous week, culminating in our eventual pick during Super Bowl week.
PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING TO THE DIVISIONAL ROUND:
The Saints blowing a fourth-quarter lead in Tampa will add some fuel to the “it’s really difficult to beat a team three times in a season” narrative that attempts to set mathematics and rational thought back into the dark ages when the Panthers travel to New Orleans to try to avenge the “Boatrace on the Bayou” that we took as our Lock of Week 13.
That said, it sets up a truly interesting matchup between a Los Angeles Rams team and their plus-coaching staff against the reigning NFC champs and their field goal-philic administration we seem to like against the spread every week.
What we’ll see in latter rounds is a team that makes it out of that game has drastically different odds later on, with the Rams traveling to Minnesota to play a healthy Vikings team (a fate they tried their hardest to avoid) or the Falcons visiting a wounded Eagles squad in a battle for avian supremacy.
PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING TO THE CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND:
This is where things get interesting. Not surprisingly given the forward-thinking nature of their coach, the Rams knew their odds of making the Super Bowl were higher with the fourth seed (hence their willingness to rest almost everyone Week 17 against the 49ers). Minnesota’s league-best defense, plus-special teams and supporting cast in the passing game, make them favorites against the Rams, Saints and the Panthers, teams for which they were 2-1 this season (and 2-0 at home).
The Eagles, on the other hand, are still adjusting to Nick Foles, who has a 25.1 passer rating under pressure and 19.4 percent conversion rate on third down passing in relief of Carson Wentz(81.7 and 47.9 percent, respectively). It’s not difficult to see New Orleans, Carolina or Atlanta, with their plus-defenses and Super Bowl-pedigree quarterbacks, going into Lincoln Financial and upsetting Philadelphia.
PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING TO THE SUPER BOWL:
Despite not earning homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, the Vikings are the odds-on favorite to make it to the Super Bowl out of the NFC. However, unlike the AFC, there is more meat on the tail end of the distribution here. Could a team like the Saints, with the league’s most elusive player in Alvin Kamara and his 23 percent broken tackle rate (first), make a run at their second Super Bowl under Asshole Face?
Can the Falcons, whom our metrics have loved all season, snap out of their Super Bowl hangover in the red zone and make a run with their stellar quarterback and defense? Can the Rams leverage the league’s best defensive player and Sean McVay’s ability to get the most out of his stable of skill players to give Los Angeles their second Super Bowl berth?
**********************************************
To read about the AFC teams click the link above.
Complete NFL playoff predictions through Super Bowl 52
BY PFF ANALYSIS TEAM
The 2017 NFL regular season is officially over, which means there will be less talk of George’s Savior from San Francisco and more about how much homefield advantage matters in the playoffs. While some mainstays like the Patriots, Steelers and Chiefs remain among the AFC’s best, eight of the 12 teams earning playoff berths this season were out of the hunt last year, including the top five seeds in the NFC.
Oddly, one of the league’s worst divisions (in our estimation) had two teams make the tournament, while the Buffalo Bills made the playoffs for the first time since 1999. The top three seeds in the NFC are playing quarterbacks that had previously struggled for Jeff Fisher’s Rams, while each of the three players quarterbacking the lower three seeds in the NFC have carried their teams to a Super Bowl appearance during their career.
With such uncertainty (at least on one side of the bracket), handicapping this season’s playoffs is going to be one of the most interesting tasks we’ve undertaken so far. Using our PFFELO system, as well our metrics that go into our weekly spread and over/under picks, we’ve simulated the playoffs a few thousand times to determine the probability of each team advancing past each round, as well as the probability of each team winning the Super Bowl. These will be updated each week to reflect the results from the previous week, culminating in our eventual pick during Super Bowl week.
PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING TO THE DIVISIONAL ROUND:
The Saints blowing a fourth-quarter lead in Tampa will add some fuel to the “it’s really difficult to beat a team three times in a season” narrative that attempts to set mathematics and rational thought back into the dark ages when the Panthers travel to New Orleans to try to avenge the “Boatrace on the Bayou” that we took as our Lock of Week 13.
That said, it sets up a truly interesting matchup between a Los Angeles Rams team and their plus-coaching staff against the reigning NFC champs and their field goal-philic administration we seem to like against the spread every week.
What we’ll see in latter rounds is a team that makes it out of that game has drastically different odds later on, with the Rams traveling to Minnesota to play a healthy Vikings team (a fate they tried their hardest to avoid) or the Falcons visiting a wounded Eagles squad in a battle for avian supremacy.
PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING TO THE CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND:
This is where things get interesting. Not surprisingly given the forward-thinking nature of their coach, the Rams knew their odds of making the Super Bowl were higher with the fourth seed (hence their willingness to rest almost everyone Week 17 against the 49ers). Minnesota’s league-best defense, plus-special teams and supporting cast in the passing game, make them favorites against the Rams, Saints and the Panthers, teams for which they were 2-1 this season (and 2-0 at home).
The Eagles, on the other hand, are still adjusting to Nick Foles, who has a 25.1 passer rating under pressure and 19.4 percent conversion rate on third down passing in relief of Carson Wentz(81.7 and 47.9 percent, respectively). It’s not difficult to see New Orleans, Carolina or Atlanta, with their plus-defenses and Super Bowl-pedigree quarterbacks, going into Lincoln Financial and upsetting Philadelphia.
PROBABILITY OF ADVANCING TO THE SUPER BOWL:
Despite not earning homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, the Vikings are the odds-on favorite to make it to the Super Bowl out of the NFC. However, unlike the AFC, there is more meat on the tail end of the distribution here. Could a team like the Saints, with the league’s most elusive player in Alvin Kamara and his 23 percent broken tackle rate (first), make a run at their second Super Bowl under Asshole Face?
Can the Falcons, whom our metrics have loved all season, snap out of their Super Bowl hangover in the red zone and make a run with their stellar quarterback and defense? Can the Rams leverage the league’s best defensive player and Sean McVay’s ability to get the most out of his stable of skill players to give Los Angeles their second Super Bowl berth?
**********************************************
To read about the AFC teams click the link above.
