Peter King picks Rams vs. Bills in Super Bowl

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Super Bowl LVI, at Los Angeles, Feb. 13, 2022: L.A. Rams 33, Buffalo 24.


2. Bullish on the Rams. Let me give you an illustration about where the Rams have been, and where I think they’re going. The best iteration of the Sean McVay Rams came in the first 12 games of 2018. Remember the bombs-away Rams? With Goff proving (or so we thought) what a good deep-ball thrower he was, particularly on that Thursday night at the Coliseum when he strafed the Vikings? The Rams then, and the Rams since:

The first 12 games of 2018: Rams 11-1, averaging 34.9 points per game.

The 41 games since (including playoffs): Rams 24-17, averaging 23.9 points per game.

I think we’re going to see a Rams offense like that one in 2018. A couple of differences between then and now. That year, the Rams had the league’s 19th-rated defense. This year, the Rams are coming off a season when they had the top-rated defense in the league. Gone is coordinator Brandon Staley, who got the Chargers’ head job, but the three best defensive players are back: all-world Aaron Donald and one of the game’s best cornerback tandems, Jalen Ramsey and Darious Williams. And the quarterback is new and improved over last year’s model.

Simply put, Matthew Stafford gives McVay, one of the smartest offensive brains in the game, the first chance in his five seasons as coach to have confidence in calling everything on his play sheet. Everything. Stafford has the arm to make every throw, and the brain to know when to make one throw versus another. One coach who has faced Safford multiple times told me on my camp tour he thinks the marriage between Stafford and McVay will work well. “Stafford with Sean is going to be fantastic,” this coach said. “Sean’s been waiting for a guy who can execute everything he wants to call.” As I wrote in my training camp report on the Rams a month ago, McVay saw Goff as a student, and he sees Stafford as a peer. In his four months inside the Rams’ building, Stafford has become almost an extension of the coaching staff, and he’s done it organically, without usurping anyone’s authority. He trades ideas with McVay about the pass game. When the Rams traded for running back Sony Michel, it was Stafford, on a day off, who took it on himself to mentor Michel personally with a deep-dive into the offense. Last week, the Rams had their players vote for two offensive, two defensive and one special-teams captains. There were two unanimous picks: Donald, of course. And Stafford. That’s the impact he’s made in his first four months on the team.

So it’s the honeymoon period. I like taking teams on the way up, such as Tampa Bay last year. The Rams are on the way up. Now, they’re top-heavy, and a couple of major non-quarterback injuries would hurt the Rams more than, say, the Bucs. They’re playing with fire at left tackle in a 17-game season, with Andrew Whitworth turning 40 in December. You don’t find many 40-year-old left tackles in football. In fact, I can’t think of a single one in recent history. Overall, they’re thin. The Rams will need some luck from the injury gods to be playing February football at home. But I’ll take my chances with them
 
Most interesting here is that he was at Rams camp which means he is speaking from, at least a little, a knowledgeable place not just guessing. I remember in 2018 people at the camp were saying how good the team looked and it's nice to hear that again from someone making such a big call.
 
From the article:

FYI, my recent preseason Super Bowl matchups:

2017: Picked New England-Seattle. It was New England-Philadelphia.
2018: Picked New England-Rams. It was New England-Rams.
2019: Picked Kansas City-New Orleans. It was Kansas City-San Francisco.
2020: Picked Tampa Bay-Baltimore. It was Tampa Bay-Kansas City.
 
From the article:

FYI, my recent preseason Super Bowl matchups:

2017: Picked New England-Seattle. It was New England-Philadelphia.
2018: Picked New England-Rams. It was New England-Rams.
2019: Picked Kansas City-New Orleans. It was Kansas City-San Francisco.
2020: Picked Tampa Bay-Baltimore. It was Tampa Bay-Kansas City.
Wow, that's actually pretty impressive. Doubt there's many pundits out there have picked at least one of the SB opponents correctly that consistently.
 
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It’s all a pretty good read, except when you get to defensive player of the year and he said JJ Watt, and that last year was his year. I guess he voted for Watt instead of Donald. Aaron should sack that SOB if he goes back to Rams camp next summer.
 
It’s all a pretty good read, except when you get to defensive player of the year and he said TJ Watt, and that last year was his year. I guess he voted for Watt instead of Donald. Aaron should sack that SOB if he goes back to Rams camp next summer.
I'm not sure what he meant by that, but actually he did vote for Donald.

******************

• Defensive Player: Aaron Donald. Tough call, with Pittsburgh pass-rusher T.J. Watt (NFL-best 15 sacks) and Miami cornerback Xavien Howard (10 interceptions, most in the league since 2007) very close. Donald and Watt are so disruptive. I am impressed with Watt every time I see him play. But I also note that the Steelers have lots of help for Watt on the front seven compared to Donald. Per PFF, Watt had 73 total pressures (sacks, hits, hurries), Stephon Tuitt 71, Cam Heyward 62 and Bud Dupree 43 in 11 games. Donald, rushing mostly from the interior, had 13.5 sacks and 98 pressures; only Leonard Floyd (45) was an appreciable aide there. Donald, to me, continues to be the most dangerous defensive player in football. As for Howard, Stephon Gilmore won this award last year with just six picks—so why not Howard with the most in 13 years? I’m not sure we should be awarding DPOYs on interceptions, which are nebulous and often misleading stats. I do think Howard was excellent this year. But let’s look at a couple of PFF numbers.

Howard: 10 interceptions, eight penalties, 10 passes broken up, 695 receiving yards allowed on 90 targets.
Green Bay’s Jaire Alexander: one interceptions, one penalty, 13 passes broken up, 337 receiving yards allowed on 69 targets.

The argument could be that quarterbacks respected Alexander more and so picked on him less than Howard. Whether that’s true or not, the comparative numbers Alexander’s season pretty competitive with Howard’s. Jalen Ramsey also deserves note here; he’d have been my fourth on the list.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/01/11/cleveland-browns-nfl-playoffs-fmia-peter-king/
 
It’s all a pretty good read, except when you get to defensive player of the year and he said JJ Watt, and that last year was his year. I guess he voted for Watt instead of Donald. Aaron should sack that SOB if he goes back to Rams camp next summer.
You must mean TJ Watt.... he did have a monster of a year last season btw.
 
2017: Picked New England-Seattle. It was New England-Philadelphia.
2018: Picked New England-Rams. It was New England-Rams.
2019: Picked Kansas City-New Orleans. It was Kansas City-San Francisco.
2020: Picked Tampa Bay-Baltimore. It was Tampa Bay-Kansas City.
King's ability to forecast Super Bowl matchups is extraordinary. Five out of eight slots picked correctly? Amazing. Rams-Bills sounds great to me