Peter King: MMQB - 5/11/15

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Mackeyser

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So it's like this.

Either, Option A) the NFL cares about the integrity of the game...

OR...

Option B) they're fine with a super profitable model where the outcomes are murky, but as long as the money keeps rolling in, it doesn't matter ENOUGH to do anything about it.

Much like in My Cousin Vinny...

I think the NFL is gonna go with Option B...

I mean as long as they are tough as nails on that marijuana...stuff.
 

Stranger

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He completely ignores the vastly reduced amount of fumbles in his article. If wonder what the results would be if those fumble stats could be broken down even further by dividing the stats into home games versus away games?
This is how cheaters cheat, they only talk about isolated outcomes. They never ever discuss the larger picture, like how the patriot's fumbles dropped so dramatically the year that Brady/Peyton got the rules changes. For discussing the bigger picture reveal more insight and reveals the deception.

That's only some of the things I didn't like about his article. I'm not saying the article was slanted in Brady's favor but he didn't portray the whole picture IMO.
But Alan, not portraying the whole picture is slanting in Brady's favor. I agree with everything you said in your post up until the last sentence :)
 

Stranger

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2) It wouldn't matter if it didn't make a difference - it was cheating, and Brady lied to try to cover it up. That's grounds for a harsh punishment. The league CANNOT have players lie to them during investigations. And they cannot have cheating, even if the cheating is ineffectual.
What's Goodhell's favorite phrase?... something like 'we must protect the integrity of the game'. Well, we're about to see just how much credence he puts into that phrase.
 

Stranger

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But it doesn't help to make the case about how much of a terrible person he is if you lump him in with Manson and OJ.
I couldn't get thru the whole article. Did PK compare him to OJ & Mansion?
 

Mackeyser

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No, a fellow poster did. Was just a little hyperbole is all.
 

Alan

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Stranger with his take:
But Alan, not portraying the whole picture is slanting in Brady's favor. I agree with everything you said in your post up until the last sentence :)
Wouldn't that only be true if they actually knew the whole story and by "knew" I mean had some kind of corroborating evidence? Inserting suppositions that can in no way be proved would just weaken their whole case and reflect badly upon their supposed neutrality.

They might have suppositions but that's not of interest to me because it could easily be wrong. We have laws in this country to prevent people from voicing suppositions about you or me or anyone else right?
 

CodeMonkey

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So it's like this.

Either, Option A) the NFL cares about the integrity of the game...

OR...

Option B) they're fine with a super profitable model where the outcomes are murky, but as long as the money keeps rolling in, it doesn't matter ENOUGH to do anything about it.

Much like in My Cousin Vinny...

I think the NFL is gonna go with Option B...

I mean as long as they are tough as nails on that marijuana...stuff.
Pshaw. No disrespect to you, man. But, option A went out the window long ago...along with a pile of Rams SB walkthroughs on VHS.
 

Stranger

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Wouldn't that only be true if they actually knew the whole story and by "knew" I mean had some kind of corroborating evidence? Inserting suppositions that can in no way be proved would just weaken their whole case and reflect badly upon their supposed neutrality.
They might have suppositions but that's not of interest to me because it could easily be wrong. We have laws in this country to prevent people from voicing suppositions about you or me or anyone else right?
I'd argue the science is pretty clear cut. For example:

1. we know the Cheatriots' Ernie Adams has an entire team of statisticians looking for an edge;
2. we know that Brady reached out to Peyton to lobby the league on the team ball handling rule change in 2007.
3. we know that the Cheatriots fumble rate dropped extraordinarily after that rule change, one that can only be explained by some external system input.
4. we know that there have been ongoing reports by players of opposing teams that the Cheatriots balls were deflated.
5. we know that the Cheatriots balls were under league allowed pressure at half-time of the AFCC, and that this differential cannot be explained by physics.
6. we know that the Cheatriots cheat given past events, which all Rams fans are intimately familiar with.
7 we know that the Cheatriots lie, or at best tell truths that are deliberately meant to deceive the listener or audience.
8. we also know that there was communication between the ball boys and Brady around the footballs, and we know that one staff member calls himself "The Deflator"
9. we also know that communication between Brady & the ball boys reached an extraordinary level, after almost no communication for an extended period, after the initial accusation came out.

Yeah, in a court of law, this is probably not enough to convict the accused. But it certainly doesn't give one a whole lot of confidence in Brady's or the Cheatriots' story either.
 

Alan

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Stranger with a laundry list:
"I'd argue the science is pretty clear cut. For example:
1. we know the Cheatriots' Ernie Adams has an entire team of statisticians looking for an edge;
There is no rule against that.
2. we know that Brady reached out to Peyton to lobby the league on the team ball handling rule change in 2007.
There is no rule against that.
3. we know that the Cheatriots fumble rate dropped extraordinarily after that rule change, one that can only be explained by some external system input.
There is no direct proven correlation between under inflated footballs and fumbles despite our suspicions.
4. we know that there have been ongoing reports by players of opposing teams that the Cheatriots balls were deflated.
So where is even a tiny shred proof?
5. we know that the Cheatriots balls were under league allowed pressure at half-time of the AFCC, and that this differential cannot be explained by physics.
The report already says that wasn't a factor.
6. we know that the Cheatriots cheat given past events, which all Rams fans are intimately familiar with.
Which means nothing except the willingness was there in the past. You have to convict someone for the crimes they're doing now. Or that we're already ajudicated.
7 we know that the Cheatriots lie, or at best tell truths that are deliberately meant to deceive the listener or audience.
Everybody tells lies. Prove what they're saying is lies.
8. we also know that there was communication between the ball boys and Brady around the footballs, and we know that one staff member calls himself "The Deflator"
Again, they've already concluded that the ball boys and Brady were equally guilty.
9. we also know that communication between Brady reached an extraordinary level, after almost no communication for an extended period, after the initial accusation came out.
Yeah, in a court of law, this is probably not enough to convict the accused. But it certainly doesn't give one a whole lot of confidence in Brady's or the Cheatriots' story either.
Again, they've already concluded that the ball boys and Brady were equally guilty."

There is nothing, IMO, that even slightly resembles evidence on your lest that they aren't already saying . I'm not saying that there isn't more to the story because I'm sure there is. What I am saying is you have zero proof of anything else.

Until you come up with something else I'm just glad they're getting punished in a significant (although not enough IMO) way at all.
 

Stranger

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There is nothing, IMO, that even slightly resembles evidence on your lest that they aren't already saying . I'm not saying that there isn't more to the story because I'm sure there is. What I am saying is you have zero proof of anything else.
The proof is in the attractor, but even that has a non-linear causal relationship to the facts as we know them. Hence, the whole concept of "evidence" as you have laid out doesn't really work in a world where people use small perturbations to alter system behavior. But now, we're way outside the scope of this forum and the realm of reductionist science.

In any event, the Patriots are guilty of this crime, and many others that we have yet to detect yet. Unfortunately, our legal system, or the way we think about evidence has not caught-up to the techniques and approach being used. There are ways to prove the case, but they take time and in-depth scientific inquiry.
 

Zaphod

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I'd argue the science is pretty clear cut. For example:

1. we know the Cheatriots' Ernie Adams has an entire team of statisticians looking for an edge;
I really think that is the ultimate reason why; while other teams may have underinflated their balls, the Patriots are getting burned on this. It's the cumulative effect of a team practice of pursuing every competitive advantage, legal or not that has finally caught up with them. I also get the impression that the investigation team did not like being lied to or being withheld evidence (Brady's phone records).
 

iced

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There is no direct proven correlation between under inflated footballs and fumbles despite our suspicions.
.

gotta disagree with that - even marshall faulk tonight on nfl network when talking about under inflated footballs said as a running back it's easier to grip or carry the ball
 

RAGRam

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Peter King said:
I want to tell you what a lousy cheater (he said tongue-in-cheek) Tom Brady apparently is.

Since the NFL allowed all teams to condition footballs the way they wanted for use in both home and road games in 2006, the idea was that quarterbacks could play with footballs in the same shape for 16 weekends, not eight. (Previously, road quarterbacks played with footballs broken in in whatever way the home team wished.) But road teams do not bring their own ballboys to games. So, if a home-team ballboy was doctoring the footballs in any way before the game, that’s not something that could happen on the road. Brady, of course, is suspected of having the balls doctored for him in the AFC title game, and it’d be naïve to think that this was the first game in which two longtime club employees messed with the footballs for Brady.

But if John Jastremski or Jim McNally have done any funny business with the balls over the past few years, the results sure don’t show it. Some telling numbers for Brady in the nine regular seasons between 2006 and 2014:

Home GamesRoad Games
Passer Rating
100.299.7
Passing Yards per Game271.8274.3
TD-to-Interception DifferentialPlus-96Plus-96

Wouldn’t you figure that if Brady was getting such an edge by having footballs doctored before home games—and by the simple factor of home-field advantage—that, more probable than not, he’d be markedly better at home?

That’s what you’d figure. And you’d be wrong. I’ll get to more of the confusion on Page 2, after the stunning story of the weekend.

Apparently the big advantage of under-inflated balls is that they're easier to grip in cold weather, a logical leap is that it's harder to play in cold weather. It might be worth comparing Brady with another cold weather QB see how he does at home and on the road.
 

kurtfaulk

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Apparently the big advantage of under-inflated balls is that they're easier to grip in cold weather, a logical leap is that it's harder to play in cold weather. It might be worth comparing Brady with another cold weather QB see how he does at home and on the road.

I'm not sure how you've missed it but the fumble rate chart has been posted multiple times here since this story broke. After teams were allowed to use their own balls when they travel The Patriots fumble rate dropped measurably while the rest of the league remained the same.

.
 

Alan

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Stranger not pulling any punches:
The proof is in the attractor, but even that has a non-linear causal relationship to the facts as we know them. Hence, the whole concept of "evidence" as you have laid out doesn't really work in a world where people use small perturbations to alter system behavior. But now, we're way outside the scope of this forum and the realm of reductionist science.

In any event, the Patriots are guilty of this crime, and many others that we have yet to detect yet. Unfortunately, our legal system, or the way we think about evidence has not caught-up to the techniques and approach being used. There are ways to prove the case, but they take time and in-depth scientific inquiry.
OK then, couldn't have said it any better myself. (y)

I can only hope you've taken up the banner and have begun working on this even as we speak.
 

Alan

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iced noting the huge preponderance of evidence:
gotta disagree with that - even marshall faulk tonight on nfl network when talking about under inflated footballs said as a running back it's easier to grip or carry the ball
So you're thinking anecdotal comments given by a former football player will be accepted by a court of law? Good luck with that. :unsure::cautious: Are you sure MF would be an unbiased expert witness?:LOL:

We think/know it's a factor but I don't think that's actual proof. What would Judge Judy say? ;)
 
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RAGRam

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I'm not sure how you've missed it but the fumble rate chart has been posted multiple times here since this story broke. After teams were allowed to use their own balls when they travel The Patriots fumble rate dropped measurably while the rest of the league remained the same.

.

Yeah, but that's more of a help to RBs, if we're meant to believe that Brady was in on it alone (yeah right :rolleyes:) there would have to be some benefit to passing.
 

Prime Time

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  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #38
http://mmqb.si.com/2015/05/11/tom-brady-suspension-patriots-deflategate-punishment/

brady-deflate-960-sb.jpg

Simon Bruty/Sports Illustrated/The MMQB

The NFL Drops the Hammer, and Sends a Message
The severity of the NFL’s Deflategate punishment for Tom Brady and the Patriots was one of the harshest rebukes ever to an alltime great player, and a signal to the other 31 teams that it does not play favorites. Brady and the Pats must now weigh their options
By Peter King

Initial reaction to the Tom Brady/Patriots deflated-footballs ruling by the NFL Monday: Stunning. Borderline astonishing.

The four-game ban for Brady for not fully cooperating with the Ted Wells investigation wasn’t surprising. But after Wells absolved the organization and in particular coach Bill Belichick of any wrongdoing, the league still took first- and fourth-round draft picks from the Patriots and hit them with the biggest team fine in NFL history, $1 million. That’s the knockout punch.

Brady, as predicted, will appeal his sanction, according to his agent, Don Yee, who said the NFL’s ban “is ridiculous and has no legitimate basis.” The appeal will be heard by commissioner Roger Goodell or his designee, and it’s certainly possible that beyond that Brady could take the matter outside the league to the courts.

There, the NFL has had a poor recent record. So there’s no guarantee that Brady will have to sit four games. There’s no guarantee he’ll sit any, with opening day four months away.

The ruling left a multitude of stories in its wake. The overriding one was the severity of the punishment. The NFL equated an apparent scheme (and I say apparent, because the Wells report did not produce proof of it) to slightly underinflate footballs to some of the worst discipline cases in league history.

That seemed to enrage New England owner Robert Kraft, who waited almost four hours Monday night before commenting on the sanction: “Today’s punishment … far exceeded any reasonable expectation. It was based completely on circumstantial rather than hard or conclusive evidence.” Kraft also said that Brady “has our unconditional support. Our belief in him has not wavered.”

But another storyline I found interesting was what, inside the letter that league executive vice president Troy Vincent wrote to the Patriots, was actually being said to the other 31 teams in the league. The crushing harshness contained this message to the rest of the NFL that Goodell wanted to send: We do not play favorites.

Wrote Vincent to the Patriots: “The key consideration in any case like this is that the playing rules exist for a reason, and all clubs are entitled to expect that the playing rules will be followed by participating teams. Violations that diminish the league’s reputation for integrity and fair play cannot be excused simply because the precise impact on the final score cannot be determined.”

A quick poll of three officials of other clubs in the hours after the ruling found a mixed reaction. One top club official thought the penalty was excessive because there was no definitive proof in the Wells report that Brady either authorized the deflation of footballs or knew precisely that they had been deflated.

Another said he was heartened to see the league treat the Patriots with an iron fist, though Kraft has been a close confidant of Goodell. A third said he and others in his organization were surprised by the severity of the punishment. “Way over the top,” he said. “Draconian. I thought the league went too far.” There was a no-joy-in-Mudville tone with these officials. Two of them said virtually the same thing—that this was a sad day for football.

* * *

The Patriots, clearly, will be in fighting mode over the decision. Club officials had privately maintained their innocence and were fiercely defensive regarding Brady. Last week’s statement from Kraft was one part anger, one part despondence, one part defiance. That hadn’t changed as of Monday night. He had said he would take whatever medicine the league dished out, but on Monday night he had to be considering his options (though they are few).

But the biggest loser in the case was not Kraft, or his Patriots. It was Brady. Forever more, he’ll have to live, fairly or unfairly, with having been called a cheater by the NFL office.(My own comment: this is news to you Peter?)

Think of how few all-time greats have been slammed the way the league just slammed Brady. In 1963 NFL commissioner Pete Rozelle suspended future Hall of Famer Paul Hornung for the season for gambling. Three years later Rozelle threatened Joe Namath with a ban if he didn’t divest his interest in a New York bar with mob ties. Lawrence Taylor got a four-game ban for substance abuse in the ’80s.

But how many players in Brady’s galaxy have had their integrity and honor questioned the way his was by the NFL on Monday? That’s why Yee and Brady should be expected to put the gloves on and fight this ban all the way up to opening night on Sept. 10, when New England begins defense of its Super Bowl title with a game against Pittsburgh in Foxboro.

As Vincent wrote in his letter to Brady: “Your actions as set forth in the report clearly constitute conduct detrimental to the integrity of and public confidence in the game of professional football. The integrity of the game is of paramount importance to everyone in our league and requires unshakable commitment to fairness and compliance with the playing rules. Each player, no matter how accomplished and otherwise respected, has an obligation to comply with the rules and must be held accountable for his actions when those rules are violated and the public’s confidence in the game is called into question.”

As proud a man as Brady is, that’s got to be the biggest slap in the face in his 38-year life.

The NFL released the Wells report last Wednesday and had five days to ponder its discipline. It’s clear from the NFL’s ruling that four factors were vital in the decision:

  • A load of circumstantial evidence. The league based the discipline on many incriminating but not wholly indictable pieces of evidence, among them some text messages that had one of the Patriots employees call himself “the Deflator.” Butas I wrote Monday, Yee and his team will clearly bring up the borderline measurement of the Patriots’ footballs at halftime of the AFC Championship Game Jan. 19. Officials used two gauges at halftime.

  • On page 113 of the Wells report, after a description of the scientific Ideal Gas Law, Wells says that the Patriots footballs should have measured between 11.32 psi and 11.52 psi. The average of all 22 readings was 11.30 psi … two-one-hundredths lower what the Ideal Gas Law would have allowed for balls that started the day at the Patriots’ level of 12.5 psi. The Brady camp will surely argue that this case never should have been brought forth because of how close the Patriots’ footballs were to the minimum level.

  • A perceived lack of cooperation from Brady and the Patriots—and being misled by Brady. Because Ted Wells, or the NFL’s designated investigative arm, does not have subpoena power, the league will look down upon a person or organization for not cooperating fully in a probe of that team. Clearly, that’s what Goodell ruled here. When Brady wouldn’t turn over his cell phone for forensic examination, that was viewed as a lack of cooperation.

  • When the Patriots would not make assistant equipment manager John Jastremski available for an additional interview at Wells’ request, that was viewed as a lack of cooperation. Vincent’s letter to the Patriots said Brady balked at surrendering his information “despite being offered extraordinary safeguards by the investigators to protect unrelated personal information … It remains significant that the quarterback of the team failed to cooperate fully with the investigation.” Vincent also clearly felt that Brady misled the Wells team “by providing testimony that the report concludes was not plausible and contradicted by other evidence.”

  • Past offense. In 2007 the team and Belichick were sanctioned a total of $750,000 and docked a first-round draft choice for illegally videotaping coaching signals on the opposing sidelines. “Under the integrity of the game policy,” wrote Vincent, “this prior violation of competitive rules was properly considered in determining the discipline in this case.”

  • The competitive-advantage factor. Whether it mattered—and the Patriots beat the Colts 45-7 in the title game, so clearly the outcome wouldn’t have been different—the NFL didn’t care. Anything that gives a team a competitive edge by cheating will be slammed, even if, apparently, the final proof isn’t there.
“We will appeal,” Yee said in his statement, “and if the hearing officer is completely independent and neutral, I am very confident the Wells Report will be exposed as an incredibly frail exercise in fact-finding and logic.”

Brady’s legacy, at least in part, depends on the success of that appeal.
 

Limey

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Whose fault is it that the evidence was circumstantial? Brady had the chance to submit his phone and provide proof of his innocence. He didn't do that, so they had to go on the balance of probability. His actions didn't look like those of an innocent man.
 

Stranger

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I really think that is the ultimate reason why; while other teams may have underinflated their balls, the Patriots are getting burned on this. It's the cumulative effect of a team practice of pursuing every competitive advantage, legal or not that has finally caught up with them. I also get the impression that the investigation team did not like being lied to or being withheld evidence (Brady's phone records).
Yes, they've institutionalized cheating