I think this guy echoes what a lot of us are feeling about how this years draft played out, especially after watching the Roku draft piece.
Missing out on Brock Bowers could be blessing in disguise for Rams
(There are images in the original post to help illustrate some of the writers points.)
Avideo recently surfaced of Sean McVay and Les Snead in the
Los Angeles Rams NFL Draft war room
attempting a trade up to the early part of the first round for Georgia TE Brock Bowers. LA tried to trade up with the
New York Jets and
Minnesota Vikings before coming to terms with the fact they were unlikely to land the prolific pass catcher.
In the end the Rams stayed put in the first round and selected
Florida State’s OLB Jared Verse at 19 overall. They also were able to hold onto their second and third round picks.
After an aggressive trade up to the early second round in order to choose Verse’s college teammate DE Braden Fiske, LA landed Michigan RB Blake Corum in the third round.
Why trading for Brock Bowers was risky
I was completely in favor of the Rams trading up for Bowers. I called
before the draft that LA would trade up the
Denver Broncos’ pick at 12 in order to select the TE. Instead there was a run on quarterbacks and Denver took the sixth QB of the first round at 12 and the
Las Vegas Raiders couldn’t pass up taking Bowers at 13.
Selecting a tight end in the first round on its own is a risky proposition. Even when we look across Matthew Stafford’s career—playing with as many as three first round picks—to see how TE’s have fared statistically,
there’s a grouping of the good to great tight ends in the 500-800 yards range each year. A tight end crossing the 1,000-yard threshold is extremely rare, but that’s generally the bar we set for the pass catchers that are taken in the first half of the first round.
Even Kyle Pitts, who surpassed 1,000 yards as a rookie, for the
Atlanta Falcons has faced nearly unrealistic expectations over his career. Stafford played with Eric Ebron, Brandon Pettigrew, and TJ Hockenson over his time with the
Detroit Lionsand it’s difficult to distinguish their production over lower drafted players like Tyler Higbee or Tony Scheffler. Dalton Kincaid, Noah Fant, Hayden Hurst, OJ Howard, Evan Engram, and David Njoku were all recently taken in the first round and few have produced at a star level.
In fairness, the best fit for Bowers in terms of potential production likely would have been in the Rams offense with McVay pulling the strings and Stafford being a reliable presence under center. Instead, Bowers heads to Las Vegas where it’s unsure who will be his starter quarterback—either Aidan O’Connell or Gardner Minshew—with an offensive coordinator who was recently fired by the
Chicago Bears in Luke Getsy.
Then there’s the idea that the Rams would need to give up multiple of their early picks to move up into the first round. That easily would cost LA their second round pick and probably their third—which for convenience we can call Fiske and Corum (though it’s debatable whether Fiske would be available at the Rams’ original second round slot).
Does the collection of players outweigh Bowers?
The Rams used the draft to rebuild their defense, and the landscape of that unit would be dramatically different if you take out Verse and Fiske in exchange for another offensive weapon.
If LA did trade up for Bowers, who would be starting at EDGE opposite Byron Young? Likely Michael Hoecht, who was tendered as a restricted free agent, or fourth round pick Brennan Jackson. That’s a stark drop off from an immediate contributor like Verse.
What about filling Aaron Donald’s absence at three technique if you don’t land Fiske? Would the Rams instead turn to last year’s Mr. Irrelevant in Desjaun Johnson or would they be forced to bring in a veteran late into the offseason?
While Blake Corum should be a backup for 2024, he should still fill an important role for the Rams as insurance for Kyren Williams. We saw LA’s offense take a major step back without Williams in the wildcard loss to the Lions, and Corum provides a similar skillset and he should be able to fill in seamlessly short-term.
Williams also has a lengthy injury history and there’s a realistic chance we see Corum start at some point this season.
On the surface the Rams seem to be in a better spot with the collection of Verse, Fiske, and Corum than they would have been with Bowers alone. Still, LA needs a third quality pass catcher behind Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp—and they still may have an opportunity to add one before the regular season rolls around.
LA hasn’t paid the cost for trading up for Fiske yet
While weighing the potential costs of a trade up for Bowers, it’s important to remember that LA sent the
Carolina Panthers their 2025 second rounder in order to move up 13 picks for Fiske. That cost was not paid with this draft class, but that bill comes due next year.
Generally, I view the draft as a crap shoot. I’d rather have two chances to pick a quality player in the second round than putting my eggs in one basket and packaging those two picks for one dart throw. While the Rams seem confident in Fiske’s ability and chemistry with Verse, there’s no certainty that he’ll turn into a reliable player for Los Angeles.
If Fiske disappoints as a rookie, not having a second round pick next year could sting for Rams fans.
