Nick Foles - A Tale of Two QBs?

[jrry32]

I pulled some stats on Pro Football Reference to investigate how often we were using our HBs in the passing game on first and second down (I felt they are being under-utilized when those sort of throws are often safe and generate positive yardage). However, I found something very interesting.

Here are Nick Foles's stats on first and second down only:
78/116
67.2% Completion%
946 yards
8.2 YPA
2 TDs
1 Int
94.3 QB Rating
9 Sacks
7.2% Sack%

Aside from the abnormally low QB Rating, these are outstanding numbers.

Here are Foles's stats on third down only:
32/69
46.4% completion%
364 yards
5.3 YPA
5 TDs
4 Ints
62.7 QB Rating
2 Sacks
2.8% Sack%

It's very weird to me to see that sort of change in a QB's numbers. It's also very weird that his TD% jumps to the extent it does on 3rd downs. But still, what is it about 3rd down that transforms Foles from a (in terms of stats) Matt Ryan type QB to a Brandon Weeden like QB?

I recognize that the receivers, OL, and coaching all share blame. But it just seems so odd how different these numbers are.

In fact, the average drop in QB Rating on 3rd down by starting NFL QBs this year is 5.9 points. Foles's QB Rating drops 31.6 points. The greatest drop by a starter is Matthew Stafford with a drop of 61.7 points. Including backup QBs that have starts under their belt, the average drop is 8.5 points and the greatest drop is E.J. Manuel at 97.7 points. Josh McCown has the greatest increase of any QB at 57.8 points.(his passer rating jumps 57.8 points on 3rd down)

It's interesting that Foles's drop is five times greater than your average starting QB. I wonder what the cause of this is.

Getting to the HB point, here are the HB numbers on 1st and 2nd down (as well as their percentage of overall production):
17/24 (21.7% of completions and 20.6% of attempts)
70.8%
159 yards (16.8% of the yards)
6.6 YPA
0 TDs

And on 3rd down:
13/15 (40.6% of completions and 21.7% of attempts)
86.6%
101 yards (27.7% of the yards)
6.7 YPA
0 TDs

Where am I going with this? With HB passes being high percentage plays and generating solid yardage, I wonder why we don't incorporate more of these throws and check downs on early downs to help us get into 2nd and manageable and 3rd and manageable.(then again, we seem to be doing well passing on first and second down)

 

[Alan]

jrry32 liking the HB math:
Where am I going with this? With HB passes being high percentage plays and generating solid yardage, I wonder why we don't incorporate more of these throws and check downs on early downs to help us get into 2nd and manageable and 3rd and manageable.(then again, we seem to be doing well passing on first and second down)

Too bad we don't do that more often too.

 

[RamsFan14]

It's crazy how much we've struggled on 3rd down, a lot of that falls on Foles unfortunately. Obviously it's a team game and many factors go into what makes a QB successful. He honestly had a good chance against the 49ers to help his case, as he wasn't hit too much, yet still struggled. Kind of concerning, have to hope Foles will take advantage of the stacked up boxes to stop Gurley. Not sure how that helps on 3rd down tho... The offense had a few 3rd and shorts against the 49ers, didn't pick em up when they should have. Tale of two QBs is a good way to describe his play thus far.

 

[Rainram]

Two points I would bring up...

1. What are the distances on the 3rd downs? I know we've had our share of 3rd and long situations, but I don't know whether or not it's within the statistical norms. But the distance to go matters obviously.
2. I think, to some extent, he does what's asked of him. If he's not seeing something he likes, maybe he eats it. Letter Hekker and the D do what they do. Play some field position. I don't know...just food for thought.

 

[Rainram]

It's crazy how much we've struggled on 3rd down, a lot of that falls on Foles unfortunately. Obviously it's a team game and many factors go into what makes a QB successful. He honestly had a good chance against the 49ers to help his case, as he wasn't hit too much, yet still struggled. Kind of concerning, have to hope Foles will take advantage of the stacked up boxes to stop Gurley. Not sure how that helps on 3rd down tho... The offense had a few 3rd and shorts against the 49ers, didn't pick em up when they should have. Tale of two QBs is a good way to describe his play thus far.

'Ol Foles has taken a drubbing this week after the Niner game. Now I'm going to have to go back and watch the game to re-evaluate some things. I certainly don't remember coming away from the game being terribly disappointed in him, like many around here.

 

[jrry32]

'Ol Foles has taken a drubbing this week after the Niner game. Now I'm going to have to go back and watch the game to re-evaluate some things. I certainly don't remember coming away from the game being terribly disappointed in him, like many around here.

I wouldn't say I was terribly disappointed. Just not impressed. He made a nice throw to Britt on the OPI play that Britt dropped. Beyond that, I just don't remember him making any other throws that stood out. Just seemed to be kind of there. Know what I mean? Not a guy that was hurting the team but also wasn't standing out in any way in terms of his performance.

 

[F. Mulder]

My .02 is that he SEEMS like a QB who needs at most 2 option type pass plays. He needs plays where when his back foot hits the ground he goes with option 1 and if that is not there then to option 2. After that throw it away or see if he is able to buy some time (however he doesn't strike me as a great improv QB despite some ok mobility for his size). Either the play calls on 3rd down are not open at the get-go or take too long to develop. I also think Foles, like a lot of QBs, needs some for of rhythm. In that sense I agree that some shorter, WR bubble screens, little roll outs to the TE, etc can help get him on track bettter. I also note that so many of these pass plays are going towards the sidelines so that even if they are complete the WR on his own, or with a little push from the DB is going out of bounds. I'd like to see them use the middle of the field more and give the WR some RAC options.

What I do like about Foles may seem minor, but he has a decent hard count to get a few cheap 5 yarders, and when he sees there's a Def pre-snap penalty and the play is still going he throws it deep no matter what. Rodgers always seems to do that. If he knows he drew someone offsides he throws it deep and knows the worst case scenario is picking up 5 free yards. I HATE when our QBs would have a free play, in the past, and throw a short pass!

I'm still forming my opinions on Foles but at least he's only imploded once in the GB game. Hell by this time with Davis or Hill there'd be about 3-4 pick 6s already.

 

[Ballhawk]

His throw on the two point conversion was outstanding!

 

[fearsomefour]

The O line play has been better. It was fine vs SF and Cleveland and our third down conversation rate is non existent.
Two things, and I apologize because I am repeating myself over and over, the play calling and kind of routes the team is running is revealing to me.
It is hard to tell watching a game with the normal tv view. Foles is late on a lot of throws or so it seems. The outs to the sideline the OC seems to favor protect the QB from having to make reads. It gives him a basket to throw into that is safe. If it is covered up it is an easy throw away. OCs protect QBs this same way with roll outs. One option or a throw away.
You don't see the crosses, slants and intermediate stuff with the Rams....the 15 to 20 yard cross. The Rams will run some stuff in the middle with the TEs but thats about it. That again is mostly scheme related trying to create some mismatches with LBs. The deep throws are usually one guy running deep with everything else underneath....again, no read here, there is usually one option, a predetermined deep shot. I like the deep shots and Foles throws a good deep ball.
I really believe the coaches don't trust Foles to read the D, be on the same page as his WRs and have the ability to find secondary guys. First and second down it is easier to run some plays where the receiver is predetermined. Third and 8 everyone knows you are passing. I don't mind first down passes especially versus a loaded box.
I believe the issue is Foles and his short comings as a QB. The OC is using him as a manager and little else. Take a few deep shots a game to try and create a big play or two....which can work as we saw vs Cleveland....beyond that don't throw picks and let the D and running game do their thing. This approach can certainly work.
It would be nice to have a full, grown up NFL passing game to complement what Gurley is doing.

 

[jjab360]

I was most impressed by the first throw to Britt that he dropped. Right in the bucket down the sideline.

 

[Dr C. Hill]

First off, thanks Jrry 32 for putting this together. This is an impressive piece of research.

I never see home games on TV as I am at the dome, and to cheap to pay for a DVR. What my eyes tell me on Foles is a little troubling: His throws past the line of scrimmage appear often times to be high and late. His down field throws seem to take a long time to develop, and even when successful, I am holding my breath hoping that the DB does not snatch it out of the sky.

Having said that:
I watched first hand as Wilson and Manning were throwing balloons too. You don't have to have a cannon for an arm to be successful, but you do have to be accurate. Right now Foles is not accurate. I think he can get past this funk though, that season he had a couple of years ago shows that he can be a plus QB.

 

[fearsomefour]

First off, thanks Jrry 32 for putting this together. This is an impressive piece of research.

I never see home games on TV as I am at the dome, and to cheap to pay for a DVR. What my eyes tell me on Foles is a little troubling: His throws past the line of scrimmage appear often times to be high and late. His down field throws seem to take a long time to develop, and even when successful, I am holding my breath hoping that the DB does not snatch it out of the sky.

Having said that:
I watched first hand as Wilson and Manning were throwing balloons too. You don't have to have a cannon for an arm to be successful, but you do have to be accurate. Right now Foles is not accurate. I think he can get past this funk though, that season he had a couple of years ago shows that he can be a plus QB.

The problem is not arm strength.
It is about reading the D, anticipating and being on time with the throw. If a QB is late with throws in NFL those often turn into picks. The windows are small and very rarely is someone just running wide open. I have no concerns with Foles physically or in regards to arm strength. It is the mental part of the game. That side of the equation to me is pretty similar to Kap in SF. Not as bad but similarities are there. No one has more physical talent than Kaperdoodle and he did not throw a lot of picks, he was just not effective with finding receivers and had to be protected.

 

[LACHAMP46]

@jrry32

great stuff..... I've come to the conclusion, he's in that phase like Bradford, the Cig offense is NOT second nature to him..just yet....It's not to the point were Sam was in 2014 in the preseason....No where close to 2013....The west coast offense has a lot of reads....before snap...after snap...and the QB and the receivers all have to be on the same page...Plus...he'll have 3, 4, or 5 options running routes, based on what they see..do they ALL see the same thing?. That may explain all the late throws...

If we're going on the Schotty schedule, I'd say it won't be until 2016 until we'll see if Foles can command this offense....until then, it's kinda in the "vanilla" stage...and the wr's are suffering...drops happen...move on...throw them another...we've got to find a way to convert on 3rd downs...

And, if that guy Hoyer can move the ball...That guy McCown can move his offense....Cam moves the Panthers...I won't go to Rodgers...I won't go Willson...Foles should be able to move this one...

 

[PARAM]

Here are our numbers on third down, as a team, total, running the ball, scrambles, sacks and passing.

Avg 3rd and 8.1 yds to go

3rd and 6 or less (13 of 40) 3 of 6 running the ball, 1 of 2 on QB scrambles, 9 of 30 passing with 5 TDs and 2 sacks

3rd and 7 - 9 yds (3 of 16) 0 of 2 running the ball, 3 of 14 passing with 4 INT

3rd and 10 or more (6 of 29) 1 of 3 running the ball, 0 of 1 on QB scrambles, 1 kneel down, 6 of 24 passing with 0 TD/ 0 INT

I think it's important to note, the 4 INTs on 3rd down ALL came in the Green Bay game where we were 5 of 18 on 3rd down.
It's also important to note, more than half of our 3rd downs are 3 and 7 or more.

On Foles' 3rd down passing.....

Total: 31 of 68 for 355 yards, 5 TD, 4 INT 61.8 QBR / ****98.6 QBR without the Green Bay Game, which I think we'd all agree was abysmal.

3rd and 6 or less: 12 of 31 for 184 yards, 5 TDs 126.3 QBR

3rd and 7-9: 5 of 14 for 38 yards, 4 INTS *Lowest possible QBR / 49.7 QBR sans GB game

3rd and 10 or more: 14 of 23 for 133 yards, 0-0, 76.9 QBR

 

[LACHAMP46]

3rd and 7 - 9 yds (3 of 16) 0 of 2 running the ball, 3 of 14 passing with 4 INT

Thanks man....and OUCH!!!!:headexplosion:But how can you get 4 int's with only 3 passes completed?

 

[FrantikRam]

I would like to know if there's a correlation between 3rd down distance with respect to running/passing on 1st and 2nd downs...

From what I can remember, when we "run/run/pass" - we haven't converted a single first down.

When we "pass/run/pass" - I don't think we convert as often

When we "run/pass/pass" - I think these would be most of our conversions.


Regardless, the stats that Jrry put up are evident that we need to pass more on early downs

 

[GabesHorn]

My .02 is that he SEEMS like a QB who needs at most 2 option type pass plays. He needs plays where when his back foot hits the ground he goes with option 1 and if that is not there then to option 2. After that throw it away or see if he is able to buy some time (however he doesn't strike me as a great improv QB despite some ok mobility for his size). Either the play calls on 3rd down are not open at the get-go or take too long to develop. I also think Foles, like a lot of QBs, needs some for of rhythm. In that sense I agree that some shorter, WR bubble screens, little roll outs to the TE, etc can help get him on track bettter. I also note that so many of these pass plays are going towards the sidelines so that even if they are complete the WR on his own, or with a little push from the DB is going out of bounds. I'd like to see them use the middle of the field more and give the WR some RAC options.

What I do like about Foles may seem minor, but he has a decent hard count to get a few cheap 5 yarders, and when he sees there's a Def pre-snap penalty and the play is still going he throws it deep no matter what. Rodgers always seems to do that. If he knows he drew someone offsides he throws it deep and knows the worst case scenario is picking up 5 free yards. I HATE when our QBs would have a free play, in the past, and throw a short pass!

I'm still forming my opinions on Foles but at least he's only imploded once in the GB game. Hell by this time with Davis or Hill there'd be about 3-4 pick 6s already.

I think Nick Foles has a mental block on throwing over the middle. Warner lived off passes in the middle. I think maybe a higher Fear for Nick who has a tendancy to throw high over the middle , which we all know has a better shot at an interception with the LB's roaming, tips.

Knowing that the RAMS have a much smaller room for error and int's are something we JUST CAN'T HAVE and may cause us as a team to just stay away from certain throws. Won't even RISK it. I personally believe Foles is afforded throwing the passes that make him more comfortable and we all know we are missing the slants in the numbers of our two tall WR's.

I want to see the computer screen with all of Nick's throw and completions. I'm sure other teams have this to study. Foles NEEDS to mix things up as he has'nt thrown that short slant to Tavon Austin over the middle for a TD since the Cardinals game. He has proven he has that throw in his quiver. That was a MUST HAVE game. I'm hoping this is considered a MUST HAVE game and we can use the FULL ARSENAL this week. Since we don't use these throws often unless they wear them out in practice.

Stop throwing 8 yard passes to guys with no running room ,when we NEEDED 13-14 for the 1st down. I'd love to do a power point with video of what I'm sayin. Love Nick Foles and hope we don't have another GB game anytime soon. I wonder if Weinke not having any Big Pro game reading scheme experience on the Fly while we have Garcia with all his Big Game time.

This 4-3 defense with great blitzing athletes does not lend itself to the inside routes. Keep a personal protector like cunningham in the backfield to pick up inside twists they love to run. Gotta keep our guy vertical this week. Have not seen a Nick Foles fist pump since his completed bomb to Britt weeks ago. Lets get Nick FIRED UP!!! NO INJURIES!!! :grouphug:

 

[GabesHorn]

The O line play has been better. It was fine vs SF and Cleveland and our third down conversation rate is non existent.
Two things, and I apologize because I am repeating myself over and over, the play calling and kind of routes the team is running is revealing to me.
It is hard to tell watching a game with the normal tv view. Foles is late on a lot of throws or so it seems. The outs to the sideline the OC seems to favor protect the QB from having to make reads. It gives him a basket to throw into that is safe. If it is covered up it is an easy throw away. OCs protect QBs this same way with roll outs. One option or a throw away.
You don't see the crosses, slants and intermediate stuff with the Rams....the 15 to 20 yard cross. The Rams will run some stuff in the middle with the TEs but thats about it. That again is mostly scheme related trying to create some mismatches with LBs. The deep throws are usually one guy running deep with everything else underneath....again, no read here, there is usually one option, a predetermined deep shot. I like the deep shots and Foles throws a good deep ball.
I really believe the coaches don't trust Foles to read the D, be on the same page as his WRs and have the ability to find secondary guys. First and second down it is easier to run some plays where the receiver is predetermined. Third and 8 everyone knows you are passing. I don't mind first down passes especially versus a loaded box.
I believe the issue is Foles and his short comings as a QB. The OC is using him as a manager and little else. Take a few deep shots a game to try and create a big play or two....which can work as we saw vs Cleveland....beyond that don't throw picks and let the D and running game do their thing. This approach can certainly work.
It would be nice to have a full, grown up NFL passing game to complement what Gurley is doing.

You said it ALL . You should have dropped the Mic on this one. NO INJURIES!!!

 

[PARAM]

Here's the lowdown of targets by position on 3rd down:

RBs / 14 targets, 13 comp, 5 first downs
Cunningham 11/11/4
Mason 2/1/1
Gurley 1/1/0

TEs / 16 targets, 5 comp, 3 first downs (1 TD)
Cook 12/4/2
Kendricks 4/1/1 (TD)

WRs / 34 targets, 10 comp, 9 first downs (4 TD)
Britt 12/1/1
Austin 12/5/4 (3 TD)
Bailey 8/4/4 (1 TD)
Quick 2/0/0

Clearly, our TE's are not producing. Austin and Bailey have decent numbers. IMHO, they need to keep targeting Austin and Bailey, as well as increasing Quick and Kendricks roles. Britt and Cook? They could continue to see targets but they could also be who the defense expects to be targeted. Get Bailey and Quick more involved.

 

[psxpaul]

This might be a crazy question, but is there anything actually broken here? The Rams are 3rd in the league in Big Play % according to this site. They trail only the 6-1 Packers and the 7-0 Panthers.

Going from that chart, the Rams are also tied for 3rd in the league for the fewest Big Plays against. The two teams with fewer Big Plays Against are the Panthers and Bengals, both of whom are undefeated.

The Rams have seemed to favor big-play players over consistent ones. They let Amendola walk, and then traded up for Tavon Austin. They've stuck with guys like Jared Cook, Kenny Britt, and Brian Quick. Maybe this is just part of Fisher's philosophy? Keep everything in front of you defense, and hope that you can get a couple of explosive plays on offense.