How the Rams might be setting up to actually land a decent quarterback

[tavian]

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on...ting-up-to-actually-land-a-decent-quarterback


How the Rams might be setting up to actually land a decent quarterback
By Will Brinson | NFL Writer
March 26, 2016 8:00 pm ET

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Take one look at the Rams' quarterback depth chart and it's easy to assume they are doing it all wrong. Never able to secure a quality quarterback during Jeff Fisher's time with the franchise, the Rams are making the inexplicable decision to roll with Case Keenum because he went 3-1 down the stretch in 2015.

It's a misleading 3-1, as Keenum averaged just 173 yards per game passing while throwing three touchdowns and one interception. Total.

Is it possible the Rams are playing this right? Well, actually there is. Not because of how they're touting their approach, per se, but because of how their actual approach to the economics of the quarterback market could play out.

The Rams' philosophy

First, let's examine what Los Angeles is trying to do. Because it appears the Rams are the only team in the entire league downplaying the importance of the quarterback position.

GM Les Snead stood up in front of the world at the combine, combined a discussion of analytics with a discussion of quarterback wins and basically pooh-poohed the notion you need to a quarterback to win in the NFL.

“To sum it all up, when Case Keenum came in he went 3-1 down the stretch. So he stabilized us. We had gone on a five-game losing streak and he goes 3-1 down the stretch,” Snead said. “That's a start there. We do like what Case brought to the table. That's why we traded for him last year, to bring him back, and he helped stabilize the position. So my answer, it's not just one variable to win in this league. There's a lot.

“The QB is important, but there is a lot of other things that are important, too.”

This is some sort of bizarro-world Moneyball situation. Everyone is zigging in the direction of trying to find a long-term solution at the quarterback position, and the Rams are just zagging as hard as possible in the opposite direction.

Snead was summing up a lengthy diatribe on points scored and quarterbacks' records when their teams score points, saying the Rams have “done a lot of studies ... about quarterbacks and what makes quarterbacks successful.”

“There's been 21 QBs since 2012 that have started 45 or more games. So if their team gives up 25 or more points, there's only one of those QBs who has actually got a winning record, and it's just over .500,” Snead said. “I'll let you guys do the research to figure that out. If your team gives up 17 or less than 17 points, all 21 of those guys have winning records. Now you get into a couple categories, 21 to 24 points, that you give up, 11 of those quarterbacks have winning records and 10 have losing records. If you give up 17 to 20 points, all but three of the QBs have winning records. So to win in this league, it's a direct correlation to how many points you're giving up.”

Is this accurate? Well, yes, technically it is accurate! With nothing else to do on a Saturday but compile QB WINZ I found Snead is pretty spot on.

Here are the 21 quarterbacks with 45 or more starts since 2012 and each quarterback's corresponding record for various scoring stats.

Do Points Matter?
Quarterback Record 21-24 PA Record 25+ PA
Tom Brady 9-3 12-9
Russell Wilson 4-3 1-10
Peyton Manning 11-1 5-11
Andy Dalton 8-4 5-10-1
Cam Newton 5-3 6-12-1
Aaron Rodgers 7-1 6-11
Alex Smith 2-5-1 1-10
Andrew Luck 5-2 8-16
Carson Palmer 3-3 4-13
Ben Roethlisberger 4-2 6-15
Drew Brees 4-3 7-28
Joe Flacco 2-8 5-15
Tony Romo 0-8 7-16
Matt Ryan 7-9 5-20
Philip Rivers 6-7 8-18
Matthew Stafford 6-7 4-21
Ryan Tannehill 2-8 3-21
Eli Manning 4-6 5-26
Colin Kaepernick 4-3 1-11
Jay Cutler 7-9 2-17
Ryan Fitzpatrick 2-7 0-17
So, yeah, Snead's point about needing to not give up a lot of points is a salient one because even the best quarterbacks struggle to win when their teams give up 25 points or more. On the other hand, the league as a whole isn't particularly good at winning games when giving up 25 points per game. Since 2012, NFL teams that gave up 25 points or more were 151-646, good for a winning percentage of 18.4 percent.

Not good!

The quarterbacks in question here are 101-327-2. That's a winning percentage of 23.5, without everyone admitting Ryan Fitzpatrick shouldn't count and his 0-17 record should be removed.

Let's actually remove all of those games, by the way. Take out these quarterbacks you don't need (according to Snead's metrics), and the rest of the record for NFL quarterbacks from 2012-2015 when someone scores 25 points against their team is an embarrassing 50-319. 13.5 percent!

You don't win in the NFL when you give up a lot of points, but you certainly don't win in the NFL when you give up a lot of points and have a bad quarterback.

So from that perspective, Snead's logic is faulty. The good news is the approach doesn't have to sink the Rams permanently. Or even this year.

Will the Rams really roll with Case Keenum? (USATSI)
The quarterback market

Everyone knows there aren't enough quarterbacks. But there's also a situation now where, at least in terms of quarterback economics, there's a little bit of saturation in the market. Unlike five years ago, there aren't 10-plus teams desperately in need of a new signal caller.

Could the Dolphins potentially be looking at moving on from Tannehill? Sure. Are the Bears thrilled with Cutler forever? Probably not. But a large portion of NFL teams are locked into quarterbacks.

Enter Snead, Fisher and the Rams, along with their attempt to claim Keenum is the guy. Think about the market right now relative to where the Rams stand.

The Browns need to figure things out but just signed Robert Griffin III. They will probably take a quarterback No. 2 overall.

The 49ers and Eagles are the only other teams in contention for a quarterback between the top of the draft and Los Angeles as things stand right now. San Francisco is coming to the harsh reality about Colin Kaepernick's trade market. The Browns are out after the Griffin signing.

The Broncos are the only team remaining capable of making a deal. They're not going to give up a second-round pick and don't own a third-round pick.

San Francisco can't get value back at the moment, which means likely holding onto Kap. If they have Kap and Blaine Gabbert on the roster, can the 49ers really eschew better talent in a critical bounce back year with Chip Kelly to take another quarterback like local-ish product Jared Goff? If you think you can land a franchise quarterback in the draft you take him, but if you've already got one on the roster you don't make the move. The 49ers might have one -- don't forget Kap is listed on the table above.

Philadelphia just committed lots of money to Sam Bradford and Chase Daniel. Not the most promising future at quarterback, but there's a lot guaranteed money committed over the next two years. There is also an expectation of a bounce back from the Eagles. Drafting a quarterback like Goff and sitting him while figuring out what to do with Bradford and Daniel. The Eagles are sitting on a top-10 pick, which sets them up for a quarterback. But their No. 8 selection also puts them in a position to land one of the premiere players in this draft.

If you consider Myles Jack, Jalen Ramsey, Laremy Tunsil, Joey Bosa, Carson Wentz/Jared Goff, Ezekiel Elliott, DeForest Buckner and Ronnie Stanley certifiable prospects in this draft, then anything within the top-eight picks is an OK selection. You're going to get a high-quality player and have the opportunity to move up or down depending on how things shake out up top.

So, again, the Rams. They understand the same things here. The 49ers and Eagles, because of how things unfolded in free agency, aren't as likely to take quarterbacks as they were a few weeks or months ago.

The Browns are still likely to take a quarterback but not guaranteed. Maybe they pass for purposes of rebuilding based on talent. Maybe they trade down in order to stockpile picks and let someone else take Wentz at No. 2.

The Cowboys are a wild card, but it feels more and more like they'll lean towards getting someone for this year to help them on the defensive side of the ball.

Los Angeles is sitting at No. 15, and the draft economics say they probably have one team taking a quarterback in front of them. They also have a group of teams from No. 9 through No. 14 who would love to trade down.

The Broncos (No. 31) and Jets (No. 20) are the only real competition and face a far steeper climb up the board to acquire a quarterback.

So if the Rams, despite what their professed analytics say, want to take a quarterback in this draft, and want to reboot with a smart, quick-throwing quarterback who will appeal to the L.A. market, well, they're secretly in great position to chase Goff.

There's a good chance he could drop outside of the top eight picks. If he does, the Rams could be primed to pounce because, of all things, they decided to stand pat during the free-agency market and simply pretend like Case Keenum is their quarterback of the future.

A history of this

Fisher and Snead are pretty good at their jobs and nice human beings. But let's not pretend they're not willing to lie to the media about the idea of where they sit on the quarterback. Any half-decent GM or coach should be willing to spin up some half-truths, and the Rams front office is no different.

Just over a year ago the Rams were locked on Bradford as the quarterback of the future. At the combine, CBS Sports NFL Insider Jason La Canfora reported the Rams were willing to let Bradford seek a trade. Fisher emphatically denied the report. Like, really emphatically.

And then they traded him for Nick Foles.

Keenum isn't some franchise savior. The Rams could easily go out and find someone better. No someone capable of winning 23 percent of their games where the team gives up 25 or more points, but someone better.

And the place to find it? The draft. Thanks to how the Rams slow-played the market, either as a result of luck, accidental genius or a brilliant marketing strategy involving limited action in free agency, Los Angeles has an opportunity to pick up a prime quarterback prospect when things fall their way.

 

[jap]

The old stick your hands in your pockets and whistle-while-you-wait routine.

 

[-X-]

So, the Browns will take a QB at #2, and then later he says they might. Or might not. That aside, Snead put a lot of thought and research into QB WINZ. It's an elaborate smoke screen if they're looking to draft one of the top QBs, but that would be the way to do it. Regular smoke screens are so passe' now.

 

[tavian]

The old stick your hands in your pockets and whistle-while-you-wait routine.

I have no idea what your talking about.

 

[den-the-coach]

Feel strongly the Rams will end up with Wentz, Goff or Lynch. Just hoping when the dust settles the Rams move up and select either Wentz or Goff because it is right, it is just and God knows, it is time!

 

[DaveFan'51]

“To sum it all up, when Case Keenum came in he went 3-1 down the stretch. So he stabilized us. We had gone on a five-game losing streak and he goes 3-1 down the stretch,” Snead said. “That's a start there. We do like what Case brought to the table. That's why we traded for him last year, to bring him back, and he helped stabilize the position. So my answer, it's not just one variable to win in this league. There's a lot.

Obviously this Doush-Bag writer doesn't think anything of our GM's intelligence! I have a much, much higher opinion, and I get a different feeling from Snead's comments! I think he's being very careful expressing his thought on the game of Football!

 

[XXXIVwin]

'Tis spelled "douchebag," old chap.
Oh-- and this writer read my mind, I hope the Rams are targeting Goff just as he describes.

 

[Amitar]

LOL, Fool me for four years shame on you, fool me again this year shame on me. The Rams are set at QB. They are not moving up from the 15 spot. Obviously this guy ain't a Rams fan. They will be drafting OLB, S, WR (even though this draft sucks at WR), TE, and maybe OL.

 

[jrry32]

One can only hope this was all part of the Rams' brilliant plan. I hope they were playing the long-game this whole time. Because I worry that they're actually deluded enough to believe Keenum is the answer. :baghead:

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

Don't writers proof read their articles before releasing them anymore?

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

One can only hope this was all part of the Rams' brilliant plan. I hope they were playing the long-game this whole time. Because I worry that they're actually deluded enough to believe Keenum is the answer. :baghead:

If you look at that list of QBs that started 45 games every one of them has had a better career than any QB on the Rams roster. Surely, Snead realized that when computing his stats, right?

 

[-X-]

If you look at that list of QBs that started 45 games every one of them has had a better career than any QB on the Rams roster. Surely, Snead realized that when computing his stats, right?

I'm not sure what that has to do with the fact that QBs in general don't have a good record when the other team scores 25 points or more.

 

[Ramsey]

I've gone on record claiming the Rams will draft a QB early this year. Although Sneed stats are correct, I'm a firm believer you can make stats say whatever you want.

So where's the catch? Where is Sneed's 25 points allowed leads to losses logic flawed?

1. Sneed wouldn't say such a thing, if the Rams didn't have an outstanding defense. In other words, Sneed hints that defense is very important to winning games. And again Sneed is right, but let me toss this stat wrench into Sneed's Logic.

2. Last year the Rams were Dead Last in offensive plays ran, averaging 57.5 offensive plays a game. The NFL median was 64.7 offensive plays run. The top team averaged 70.4 offensive plays per game

3. The Rams Defense averaged 68.2 plays from scrimmage which placed the Rams 28th in the league. So the Rams defense played 10.7 more scrimmage plays the their offense. Thus the Rams negative 10.7 scrimmage plays differential placed the Rams again DEAD LAST.

4. Thank God Johnny Hecker is the best punter on the planet. Unfortunately Hecker led the NFL with 96 punts. That's 6 punts a game!:shocked: Praise Johnny Hecker.

5. The Rams were DEAD LAST in practically every Passing Category.

Conclusions...

Rams defense is better most NFL statistics reflect. The Rams defense is easily a Top five defense no matter what the stats say. The problem is they have to play defense for 60% of the game.

If I was an NFL doctor, I'd say, "The best defense is a good offense." The best offenses are run by superior starting quarterbacks. As you doctor, Snead Fish, I prescribe a franchise quarterback. It's expensive, I know.

Bottom Line...Snead Fish are well aware of the dead last negative play from scrimmage differential. Therefore I surmise the Rams will do everything in their power to move up and draft a spanking brand new quarterback. Snead Fish are biding their time, waiting for the Free Agency Quarterback Musical Chair game to end. Thus eliminating the need to pay an RG 3 treasure trove to move up and draft the QB they have targeted. Like I said in an earlier post, I will put my precious ROD dollars where my mouth is...I bet the Rams draft a QB in the first round.

The signs are good. The planets have aligned! Mercury goes into retrograde the first day of the draft April 28, and traditionally that bodes well for the Rams and is bad for the Browns, Eagles, Cowbows, and the Whiners.:mrburnsevil:

 

[-X-]

If I was an NFL doctor, I'd say, "The best defense is a good offense." The best offenses are run by superior starting quarterbacks. As your doctor, Snead Fish, I prescribe a franchise quarterback. It's expensive, I know.

I would like to see that too. And Wentz/Goff have the look and feel of exactly that. But there's also exactly zero guarantee that they'll turn into that. Of course you improve your odds the higher you draft, but I'd hate to see them put all their eggs into one basket while we're so close to having a complete team sans a FRANCHISE quarterback. This team only needs a pretty good one though. Keenum is a good QB, but we can obviously do better. And at the risk of sounding like a broken record, Keenum can *actually* do better with better weapons around him. Not Britt and Quick as the only guys. Which could very realistically be just Britt. Because we have no idea how Quick is going to do this year. So I'd still prefer they shore up the wide receiver/tight end positions swiftly and then let Mannion ease into the role and/or have some later round QB this year compete with him. Like Cody Kessler, for example.

And my WORST fear is that this QB class turns out to be like this one.

 

[Mojo Ram]

I'd hate to see them put all their eggs into one basket while we're so close to having a complete team sans a FRANCHISE quarterback.

Is it the giving up all the draft picks that scares you the most? Or is it more that you aren't sold on Goff and/or Wentz?
Don't say both. That's too easy.

 

[Loyal]

I just get this feeling that Carson Wentz is it. We will regret not moving up for him for a decade.......The sad part is, that I am not sure that Fish/Snead can overcome their history of not dramatically moving up for a guy....

 

[-X-]

Is it the giving up all the draft picks that scares you the most? Or is it more that you aren't sold on Goff and/or Wentz?
Don't say both. That's too easy.

But it is both.

I'll prioritize it for you though. It's the draft picks more than being unsure about the QBs. And not because they aren't talented. I watched a lot of videos of both just to get a complete idea of what we stand to gain. I like them both, but probably Goff more. I've also spent an inordinate amount of time scouting the receivers in this draft and it makes me freaking drool. If we were able to get both Treadwell and Doctson, I'd be freaking elated. ELATED.

 

[RamBall]

Don't writers proof read their articles before releasing them anymore?

Apparently not. It cracks me up when I see grammatical errors, I didnt pass English til my Jr yr in high school it has always been my most hated subject yet professional writers are even worse than this high school drop out.

 

[ReddingRam]

But it is both.

I'll prioritize it for you though. It's the draft picks more than being unsure about the QBs. And not because they aren't talented. I watched a lot of videos of both just to get a complete idea of what we stand to gain. I like them both, but probably Goff more. I've also spent an inordinate amount of time scouting the receivers in this draft and it makes me freaking drool. If we were able to get both Treadwell and Doctson, I'd be freaking elated. ELATED.

And if anyone noticed ... both Snead and Fisher have hinted to their draft philosophy of going multiple at positions in their draft. They have done it with CB, DL and last yr. OL. That could be done this year at WR. But They can still do that if they stay at #15 and grab a QB. I could see them grabbing say Lynch to groom behind Keenum for a yr and compete with Mannion for the long term solution, then draft two WR's between the 2nd and 3rd Rd's. I'm thinking Boyd and .... .something tells me they REALLY like Braxton Miller. I have a hunch .... Miller WILL BE drafted by us. Just a very strong hunch.

 

[Mojo Ram]

But it is both.