Football Outsiders thinks at least a year away, I'll run with that:
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/scramble/2018/scramble-2018-west-overunders
LOS ANGELES RAMS (10)
Last Over: 2017 (11-5, McVay/Goff)
Last Under: 2016 (4-12, Fisher/Keenum)
Bryan: Hey, we finally get an actual Super Bowl contender to talk about!
Andrew: That's debatable, but we at least get a team that was a legitimate contender last year. Unfortunately, this is another team that has since alienated its best player -- though at least, in this instance, for plain old monetary reasons.
Bryan: If
Aaron Donald is still holding out by the time you're reading this, he has lost an accrued season. That means, this offseason, he'll be just a restricted free agent, rather than an unrestricted one. I understand that, in a world with the franchise tag, Donald's going to make about as much money either way ... but I think, were I him, I'd prefer the potential freedom of unrestricted free agency over sitting out a month of training camp.
Andrew: In practical terms, that won't make any difference because no team will hesitate to offer Donald a contract if he's given any tender other than the exclusive franchise tag, and to heck with the draft pick cost. Reports indicate that Donald will not play without a new contract regardless, so it looks like a rock-solid impasse.
Bryan: I still think Donald is more likely to play more games this season than Mack will, on what's going to be the best defense in the league. I'm still a bit agog at the Rams' offseason spending spree; we've been saying for years that teams with a quarterback on a rookie deal should be doing everything they can to maximize their championship window, but the Rams have taken that to an entirely new level this year. The last team to add a quartet as talented as
Ndamukong Suh,
Brandin Cooks,
Aqib Talib and
Marcus Peters in one year was the 1994 49ers, who essentially rented a defense and won the Super Bowl. Anything short of that should be considered a disappointment for the Rams.
Andrew: Some of this comes down, again, to what you think you're getting from the quarterback. Will Goff sustain his success from last season, or will teams be able to slow the Rams offense with a full year of tape for preparation?
Bryan: I wouldn't be surprised if Goff drops from top-five to top-ten this year. There are still holes in his game, and while Sean McVay did a great job of coaching around them and scheming the offense to play to Goff's strengths, Goff still showed some of his rookie struggles when pressured. A great performance from the offensive line and a quick passing game just meant that Goff didn't have to
deal with pressure on a regular basis last season, even as he held on to the ball for longer than you'd like out of an ideal quarterback.
That being said, a top-ten quarterback, a top-three running back in
Todd Gurley, and a top-one defense really, really screams "Super Bowl contender" to me. I'm concerned about
depth, which wasn't tested at all last season, but if everyone stays healthy again? Yowza.
Andrew: They never do all stay healthy again, but it's impossible to predict what injuries will bite and when. The roster is loaded. The defense should, as you say, be close to the league's best. The offense should be decent, even if Goff drops off a bit -- the head coach has shown that he knows what he's doing there, and the loss of coordinator Matt LaFleur shouldn't have too much of an effect. I like the Rams to repeat as division champions, and that probably means on the right side of 10 wins -- though 10 wins is a high bar to clear. I'm tempted to push, but I think I'll settle for the
Over.
Bryan: I'm all in on the
over, and at least at the moment, I'm thinking home-field advantage and a trip to the Super Bowl, as well. Is the Rams bandwagon still considered a bandwagon? If it is, I'm 100 percent on it this year. I think the Rams are going to be scary-good.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (8.5)
Last Over: 2013 (12-4, Harbaugh/Kaepernick)
Last Under: 2017 (6-10, Shanahan/Garoppolo)
Bryan:
Jimmy Garoppolo.
Jimmy Garoppolo Jimmy Garoppolo Jimmy Garoppolo,
Jimmy Garoppolo,
Jimmy Garoppolo Jimmy Garoppolo.
Jimmy Garoppolo (Jimmy Garoppolo
Jimmy Garoppolo),
Jimmy Garoppolo Jimmy Garoppolo;
Jimmy Garoppolo Jimmy Garoppolo Jimmy Garoppolo.
Jimmy Garoppolo!
Jimmy Garoppolo Jimmy Garoppolo Jimmy Garoppolo --
Jimmy Garoppolo Jimmy Garoppolo,
Jimmy Garoppolo Jimmy Garoppolo Jimmy Garoppolo.
Jimmy Garoppolo?
Jimmy Garoppolo!
Andrew: I see you watched the opening credits of today's
Simpsons special, in which everybody's favorite dysfunctional cartoon family takes a trip to Levi's Stadium.
Bryan: Oh, how I wish the 49ers had lost just one game with Jimmy G under center, just to be spared an entire offseason of the super-levels of hype we've been getting. Our advanced analytics and exceptional football know-how leads us to project that, one day, Garoppolo will lose a game. Please, 49ers fans, I get your excitement, but just take one deep breath, alright? It's true that the 49ers would have made the playoffs if the season had started the day of the Garoppolo trade, but it's also true that the 49ers were
really, really bad before that happened. There's still a lot of rebuilding work to be done here, even if it now has a handsome face plastered onto the front.
Andrew: There is definitely hope and potential by the Bay, but as you say this is far from the finished article. The quarterback is good news, but the best news for 49ers fans surely has to be the coach. Kyle Shanahan just gives every possible indication that he "gets it" -- that he understands what coaching is about, beyond even just the scheme and strategy that earned him this job.
Bryan: Even if Shanahan wasn't a good coach, he feels like such a breath of fresh air. He's probably the most pleasant and enjoyable coach the 49ers have had since Steve Mariucci. Chip Kelly was a disaster, Jim Tomsula was worse, Jim Harbaugh is an anger elemental...
Andrew: Earth! Wind! Fire! RAAAAAGE!
Bryan: ... Mike Singletary is best known as a coach for dropping trou, Mike Nolan is best remembered for wearing a suit, and Dennis Erickson is the worst coach in franchise history. To have Shanahan back there, actually willing to talk to the media and explain what's going on, to be able to talk about "overcoming coaching" and the importance of players to play to their strengths rather than slavishly follow the play as written is an incredible shift from what 49ers fans have come to expect from the guy with the play sheet. And, of course, Shanahan
doesappear to be a good coach, so far; his offense (and McVay's offshoot of it) has been regularly cited by teams this offseason as
the scheme to watch (and copy). It feels
really weird for the 49ers to be on the cutting edge of offensive scheming again, to be frank. And now, he's got a full offseason with his quarterback. So, yeah, I get the optimism. I really, really do.
But 8.5 games? The franchise hasn't had a winning record since Harbaugh left town, and I think it may be asking too much to jump all the way there in one go. To hit the "over," the 49ers really need three things to happen:
- Jimmy Garoppolo needs to play like Small Sample Size Jimmy Garoppolo from 2017. SSS Garoppolo was the best quarterback in football last year, with a DVOA exactly matching Matt Ryan's MVP season in 2016 in what is definitely an omen and not a random coincidence.
- Richard Sherman -- or whoever ends up starting across from Ahkello Witherspoon -- needs to actually be competent, which is more than the 49ers got last season. Sherman's already on the shelf with a hamstring injury, so I'm nervous there.
- Someone, somewhere, somehow, has to provide a pass rush, and I'll be darned if I can figure out exactly where that's going to come from. Arik Armstead, playing out of position? Ronald Blair? Fans are talking themselves into Cassius Marsh, and that's never a good sign.
All three of those things are entirely possible. I'm just not sure they'll hit the trifecta this season; it feels like they're a year and a first-round edge rusher away from being a real playoff contender, at least in the NFC where 10 wins might not be enough to see you through.
Andrew: The interior rush should be fine, but there is just nothing I can see on the outside. Marsh might well be the best edge rusher on the team.
Bryan: The interior rush should be more than fine with
DeForest Buckner and
Solomon Thomas, and I'm excited for 14 games of Reuben Foster (each one with a mid-game injury that takes him out of a drive). Still, I think I'm on the
under for this season, and I'll be pleasantly surprised if I'm wrong.
Andrew: This is a line that feels a year too early and two wins too high. I'd love to see Kyle Shanahan enjoy this much success this quickly, but absent a few scheduling gifts or some very unexpected performances from the offensive supporting cast and outside pass rush, I don't see how this roster claws out nine wins. It's an
under, but one laced with hope for the future.
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Know your enemy:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymIOgCfa9pY
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sd31AuKunOw
