Greg Robinson - Rams Top Pick?

[blackbart]

Projection is a part of any talent evaluator's job. Every draft pick is a gamble, and if you're confident enough in your evaluation, why not go for the jackpot? If you're not confident in your ability to project a player's skillset into the next level, then you probably won't be working in the NFL for very long.

Sometimes I wish I did work for an NFL team but basing my career on SWAGs (semi wild ass guesses) doesn't sound very stable. And of I was going to do that I would still base my opinions on the safest pick not the guy with lots of upside.

 

[BonifayRam]

If we pick up Robinson and is Safford gone?

In truth Saffold is long gone we just do not know it yet...

 

[jjab360]

In truth Saffold is long gone we just do not know it yet...

I don't think so, but we'll see...

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

Larry Allen: 6-3, 325 lbs, 4.85 40
Walter Jones: 6-5, 325 lbs, 4.70 40
Jason Peters: 6-5, 328 lbs, 4.93 40
Greg Robinson: 6-5, 332 lbs, 4.92 40
Jason Smith: 6-5, 309 lbs, 5.09 40

The first four guys are all in the same class of athletes, massive guys who are light on their feet and able to translate initial quickness into massive power. You have these guys at the top of the athletic foodchain and then somewhere along the road you have guys like Jason Smith who, sure, are quick and fast for their size when compared to the average college football player, but when put beside the first four guys, it's not even a comparison worth mentioning. As athletes, it's as ridiculous as comparing Glenn Dorsey to Dontari Poe or Roy Williams to Calvin Johnson.

You are picking nits. The Rams were not the only team that thought Jason Smith was worthy of a top 3 pick. A player that is so highly regarded is not some athletic schlep. I don't see how you can so clearly group Robinson with all time greats like Allen and Jones when Robinson has not proven to anyone that he can be a good pass protector. He and Smith are clearly similar in that regard.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

Projection is a part of any talent evaluator's job. Every draft pick is a gamble, and if you're confident enough in your evaluation, why not go for the jackpot? If you're not confident in your ability to project a player's skillset into the next level, then you probably won't be working in the NFL for very long.

It is safe to say that if a guy is an NFL scout then he is confident in his ability to evaluate talent. But that doesn't necessarily mean he is actually good at it.

 

[jjab360]

You are picking nits. The Rams were not the only team that thought Jason Smith was worthy of a top 3 pick. A player that is so highly regarded is not some athletic schlep. I don't see how you can so clearly group Robinson with all time greats like Allen and Jones when Robinson has not proven to anyone that he can be a good pass protector. He and Smith are clearly similar in that regard.

I'm not nitpicking, it's a pretty huge difference. I can lump Robinson in with those guys athletically because it's right there in black and white. I'm not saying he'll be as good as those guys, I'm saying he's the same type of athlete, whereas Smith clearly is not. Considering that they are not at all the same type of player in any way, shape, or form other than the position they play, I have no idea why his name is even being brought into this discussion.

 

[Boffo97]

I'm not nitpicking, it's a pretty huge difference. I can lump Robinson in with those guys athletically because it's right there in black and white. I'm not saying he'll be as good as those guys, I'm saying he's the same type of athlete, whereas Smith clearly is not. Considering that they are not at all the same type of player in any way, shape, or form other than the position they play, I have no idea why his name is even being brought into this discussion.

Smith clearly is not the same type of athlete NOW. But the point being made is that Smith was thought to be very athletic at the time and have a ton of upside.

So it is a valid concern to point out that last time we took someone unpolished... and perhaps even raw, it horribly backfired on us (though I still strongly assert there were really no other legitimate choices there.)

Imagine how much worse the Smith pick would have been seen as if we had signed a former #1 overall pick to be LT the previous year. When we picked Smith, all we had was Barron, who we already knew to be, at best, an underachiever.

 

[jjab360]

Smith clearly is not the same type of athlete NOW. But the point being made is that Smith was thought to be very athletic at the time and have a ton of upside.

So it is a valid concern to point out that last time we took someone unpolished... and perhaps even raw, it horribly backfired on us (though I still strongly assert there were really no other legitimate choices there.)

Imagine how much worse the Smith pick would have been seen as if we had signed a former #1 overall pick to be LT the previous year. When we picked Smith, all we had was Barron, who we already knew to be, at best, an underachiever.

For the record, this is what I wrote about Jason Smith 5 years ago on a different football forum:

I gave my reasons as to why Jason Smith will not be the pick. Monroe trumps Smith in pass blocking, run blocking, intangibles, experience, working in a pro style offense, working in the 3 point stance, Monroe was highly recruited out of high school, Monroe comes from a more succesful organization, in fact I can't think of a single area in which Jason Smith is better than Eugene Monroe. Can you give me one reason why you like Jason Smith other than Eugene Monroe's knees?

My take is you have an OT who played in a spread offense in the 2 point stance, who came out of high school as a TE vs. the top OL prospect of 2005 who started at LT for 3 years in a pro-style offense and came from the same system that produced draft day studs such as D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Branden Albert.
Monroe can come in from day 1 and be the LT for the next 10-15 years similar to Pace (though probably not as good). Smith is a project who might get some playing time at RT, but IMO won't even be considered to start at LT with his limited pass protection skills. Monroe is the best pass protector in the entire draft and IMO is also a better run-blocker than Smith.

One word seems to stand out of what you said. Potential. And you do not draft potential at the no.2 pick, you draft production. One of the reasons we took Chris Long over Vernon Gholston last year. By the way, as far as athleticism , Smith has a vertical jump of 24 and a broad jump of 8'00", while Monroe has a vertical jump of 28 1/2 and a broad jump of 9'02", so the numbers show Monroe has better athleticism anyway.

I've been wrong about a lot of things, but I always thought Smith was an overrated player and athlete, had no idea why he was viewed as highly as he was. Monroe didn't go on to set the world on fire, but a lot of people consider him a top 10 LT nowadays, we could have used a talent like that. That pick frustrated me at the time and still does today, which is why I can't stand that baseless comparison.

As far as my "you don't draft potential at the no.2 pick" comment, it would seem like I've changed my stance over the years, but I've only modified it. I still wouldn't draft a prospect that high in the draft based purely on what they're capable of doing, but I've seen Robinson dominate enough to where I'd draft him high even if he didn't get much better than he is right now. I wouldn't trust him on an island in pass protection at LT right now, but I think he could be a dominant OG or RT almost immediately, and the type of lineman that could help shape the Rams' new identity. That type of player is worth a top 5 pick in my mind.

 

[Boffo97]

For the record, this is what I wrote about Jason Smith 5 years ago on a different football forum:



I've been wrong about a lot of things, but I always thought Smith was an overrated player and athlete, had no idea why he was viewed as highly as he was. Monroe didn't go on to set the world on fire, but a lot of people consider him a top 10 LT nowadays, we could have used a talent like that. That pick frustrated me at the time and still does today, which is why I can't stand that baseless comparison.

As far as my "you don't draft potential at the no.2 pick" comment, it would seem like I've changed my stance over the years, but I've only modified it. I still wouldn't draft a prospect that high in the draft based purely on what they're capable of doing, but I've seen Robinson dominate enough to where I'd draft him high even if he didn't get much better than he is right now. I wouldn't trust him on an island in pass protection at LT right now, but I think he could be a dominant OG or RT almost immediately, and the type of lineman that could help shape the Rams' new identity. That type of player is worth a top 5 pick in my mind.

Fair enough, but while you doubted Jason Smith at the time, a lot of experts didn't. And said similar things to what's being said now about Robinson. So that's why Smith comes up in comparison. If we draft Robinson, certainly we'll all hope the comparison is as baseless as you say.

 

[Rams and Gators]

I've just created what I believe to be a fun game, it's called "1 comparison" basically player 1 names a player and player 2 has to find any comparison to that player who is considered a bust, the comparison can be a loose or as tight as player 2 likes. Just for example: Sammy Watkins, can be compared with Troy Williamson, both 6'1", both played their college football in the state of South Carolina, both had 3 or less TDs in their second season.

There's also a variation on "1 comparison" where you find an All Pro, and then you find a NFL draft prospect who is considered similar, for example Rob Gronkowski, can be compared with Austin Seferian-Jenkins, both similar size, 6'5" 262 for ASJ 6'6" 265 for Gronk, neither worked out at the combine due to injury, both played in the Pac 12/10, both had similar production 1,302 yards 15 TDs for ASJ's last two seasons 1,197 16 TDs for Gronk.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

Fair enough, but while you doubted Jason Smith at the time, a lot of experts didn't. And said similar things to what's being said now about Robinson. So that's why Smith comes up in comparison. If we draft Robinson, certainly we'll all hope the comparison is as baseless as you say.

Exactly. To say there is no similarities by pointing out one aspect of a prospect, in this case athletic type, is picking nits or cherry picking your argument. Robinson in no way shape or form has proven that he can pass protect on an island much less pass protect in a pro style offense. Most of the guys Jjab lists already did that prior to being drafted. Jason Smith Peters and Robinson have not. Peters wasn't even drafted.

If I pick an OLT in round 1, I want to know that he can pass protect. Especially since Bradford is not very instinctial when it comes to feeling pressure and he has needed more time to throw ever since he was drafted. Add to it thedurability questions and unsure young receiving corps. Now if the Rams are drafting Robinson as a Guard then fine but top 6 for a guard is quite lofty for my taste.

I am all for the Rams fixing the line. I would be quite pleased if both first round picks were Matthews and Robinson or a highly rated Guard. But a raw prospect with a top ten pick is scary at any position.

 

[Mojo Ram]

Not to over simplify things,but IMO one of the most important things to correctly evaluate other than the physicality and ability of these blue chip prospects is the individuals competitive nature. Some of these talented draft picks enter the NFL after dominating in college,and then mentally fold when surrounded by other ultra-competitive pro athletes.

The desire to be better than the guy next to him still needs to be there after draft day and all the guaranteed money rolls in.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

Yes and who knows how to guarantee that? I don't think there were red flags with Smith on competitiveness and I doubt there are with Robinson, but for some players it never shows up until they hit the NFL. For some, the desire wanes once the get the big money, or the competition stiffens.

 

[rhinobean]

Yes and who knows how to guarantee that? I don't think there were red flags with Smith on competitiveness and I doubt there are with Robinson, but for some players it never shows up until they hit the NFL. For some, the desire wanes once the get the big money, or the competition stiffens.

Didn't Smith suffer a concussion or 2? Seems he changed after those happened! Seems like that's how it went down?

 

[Mojo Ram]

Yes and who knows how to guarantee that? I don't think there were red flags with Smith on competitiveness and I doubt there are with Robinson, but for some players it never shows up until they hit the NFL. For some, the desire wanes once the get the big money, or the competition stiffens.

There are no guarantees, but it shouldn't be too hard to recognize during interviews and discussions...as long as you have the right people observing or conducting it. As we all know every player is coached up to present themselves well during an interview,but much like a behavioral job interview,you've got to ask the right open ended questions and expect the kid to give you specific examples from life experience. Its not hard to tell(IMO) if a guy is genuine or full of shit. It's not 100% but i wonder how many staff's/scouts look deeply into one's competitive spirit,rather than just "Is he a good kid?"

I have some background in hiring and interviewing so it interests me.

 

[LosAngelesRams]

Greg has RT/RG written all over him for me, his run blocking game is so good I don't know how you don't throw him over there, especially with the suspect pass blocking. If we plan on taking a LT to eventually take over for Long, I don't see how you pass up on Matthews.

 

[BonifayRam]

The decision on Saffold happens next week. Saffold has a better chance on effecting the Robinson pick.

I am in the Saffold is GONE mode.....time to move on with my thinking.......of all the thoughts I have on the OL #1 is the replacement of Saffold...what prospect most reminds me of the talent of Saffold? David Yankey is real close. If the stars align just right there is a very slight chance Yankey could be there on the second day early.

Another Ol'er who might be able to do some of the things that Saffold did do for us.....Brandon Thomas would be a very good early third day slection. If I am looking for a future replacement for the UFA 2015 event with Barksdale I like what I see in Jawuan James ORT Tenn Vols.

 

[Yamahopper]

If we pick up Robinson and is Safford gone?

If the Rams resign Saffold it will change the whole focus of the draft. Say hello to Mr. Clowney if stuck at #2.

 

[Ram_of_Old]

If the Rams resign Saffold it will change the whole focus of the draft. Say hello to Mr. Clowney if stuck at #2.