Goff Trade Up

[Rmfnlt]

Well, nobody's calling Goff garbage.
I think the consensus is that Goff is pretty good.

But is he average or not?

THAT very important question is what is being debated here!!!

The success of determining this is critical to the Rams getting into the playoffs, ya know?

 

[Merlin]

But is he average or not?

THAT very important question is what is being debated here!!!

Historically... Having a QBR over 100 in year two is a real good sign. But yeah the season isn't over and tough defenses loom on the horizon, so it really is a wait and see situation here.

The nice thing about our sched is he is going to get "tuned" for the playoffs and then hopefully get the team into the playoffs where he'll be ready to go. But whatever happens he's got a lineup of very strong defenses the remainder of this season plus in the playoffs where 5/6 of the seeded teams right now all are very good on that side of the ball.

Kid's in for a baptism by fire starting this weekend.

 

[Rmfnlt]

Historically... Having a QBR over 100 in year two is a real good sign. But yeah the season isn't over and tough defenses loom on the horizon, so it really is a wait and see situation here.

The nice thing about our sched is he is going to get "tuned" for the playoffs and then hopefully get the team into the playoffs where he'll be ready to go. But whatever happens he's got a lineup of very strong defenses the remainder of this season plus in the playoffs where 5/6 of the seeded teams right now all are very good on that side of the ball.

Kid's in for a baptism by fire starting this weekend.

Blue font, my man... blue font.

These discussions about who's the better QB... or how much the QB contributes to wins or losses have been going on since the earth cooled... with NO winners!

 

[OldSchool]

Historically... Having a QBR over 100 in year two is a real good sign. But yeah the season isn't over and tough defenses loom on the horizon, so it really is a wait and see situation here.

The nice thing about our sched is he is going to get "tuned" for the playoffs and then hopefully get the team into the playoffs where he'll be ready to go. But whatever happens he's got a lineup of very strong defenses the remainder of this season plus in the playoffs where 5/6 of the seeded teams right now all are very good on that side of the ball.

Kid's in for a baptism by fire starting this weekend.

QBR? Don't pay attention to QBR

 

[kurtfaulk]

Drafting a QB isn't about the first year. Nor even the second year. It's about the next decade to decade and a half, particularly when it's a pocket QB.

Some big names from the best QB ever lists and then Goff, with breakout year being the first year they got over 90 QBR:

Tom Brady
Physique: good height, skinny build, solid arm
Type QB: Pocket
1st season: limited snaps, 1 of 3 for 6 yards, 42.4 QBR
2nd season: 2,843 yards, 18 TDs, 12 INTs, 86.5 QBR
3rd & 4th season: 85.7 & 85.9 QBR
BREAKOUT YEAR: 4

Joe Montana
Physique: short, skinny build, weak arm
Type QB: Pocket
1st season: limited snaps, 13 of 23 for 96 yards, 81.1 QBR
2nd season: 1,795 yards, 15 TDs, 9 INTs, 87.8 QBR
3rd & 4th season: 88.4 & 88.0 QBR
BREAKOUT YEAR: 5

Payton Manning
Physique: good height, skinny build, solid arm
Type QB: Pocket
1st season: 3,739 yards, 26 TDs, 28 INTs, 71.2 QBR
2nd season: 4,135 yards, 26 TDs, 16 INTs, 90.7 QBR
BREAKOUT YEAR: 2

Dan Marino
Physique: good height, average build, strong arm
Type QB: Pocket
1st season: 2,210 yards, 20 TDs, 6 INTs, 96.0 QBR
2nd season: 5,084 yards, 48 TDs, 17 INTs, 108.9 QBR
BREAKOUT YEAR: 1 (freak of MFing nature)

Roger Staubach
Physique: good height, average build, strong arm
Type QB: Pocket
1st season: limited snaps, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 69.5 QBR
2nd season: limited snaps, 2 TDs, 8 INTs, 42.9 QBR
BREAKOUT YEAR: 3

John Elway
Physique: good height, athletic/physical build, freak arm
Type QB: Pocket (with plus scrambling ability)
1st season: 1,663 yards, 7 TDs, 14 INTs, 54.9 QBR
2nd season: 2,598 yards, 18 TDs, 15 INTs, 76.8 QBR
3rd and 4th season: 70.2 & 79.0 QBR

Brett Farve
Physique: good height, athletic/physical build, strong arm
Type QB: Pocket (with plus scrambling ability)
1st season: limited snaps, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 0.0 QBR
2nd season: 3,227 yards, 18 TDs, 13 INTs, 85.3 QBR
3rd season: 72.5 QBR
BREAKOUT SEASON: 4

Aaron Rodgers
Physique: good height, athletic/physical build, strong arm
Type QB: Pocket (with plus scrambling ability)
1st season: limited snaps, 0 TDs, 1 INTs, 39.8 QBR
2nd season: limited snaps, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 48.2 QBR
3rd season: limited snaps, 1 TD, 0 INTs, 106 QBR
BREAKOUT SEASON: 4

Drew Brees
Physique: short, average build, solid arm
Type QB: Pocket
1st season: limited snaps, 1 TD, 0 INTs, 94.8 QBR
2nd season: 3,284 yards, 17 TDs, 16 INTs. 76.9 QBR
3rd season: 67.5 QBR
BREAKOUT SEASON: 4

Jared Goff
Physique: good height, skinny build, strong arm
Type QB: Pocket
1st season: 63.6 QBR
2nd season: 2385 yards, 16 TDs, 4 INT, 101.5 QBR
BREAKOUT SEASON: 2?

Looking at the above, that being the best QBs in the modern era in sustained top performance over many years and subsequent Hall of Fame type careers, only Dan Marino "lived up to" what the media demands from young QBs. So once again and for the millionth time, for any media type who wants to slam on a young QB they should really do their MFing homework and understand the historical data surrounding the position.

Jared Goff not only compares just fine with what he's done this season, but given the youth of the team around him, coaching, etc he is likely to exceed many of the Hall of Fame QBs on the list above. And before someone starts trying to divert the conversation to Super Bowl wins, for any of us who has watched this game longer than most Seahawks fans we know that is also about the team not just the QB.

are you mixing up qbr with passer rating? qbr is a shit stat that only goes up to 100.

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[jrry32]

Again jrry32. These guys aren't robots. And neither are the players surrounding them. And the situations / circumstances of their opponents are not constant. One can even see that when these guys play inter in divisional games. Surely you've seen where a player can shine in one and crap the bed in another vs. the same opponent within a season, haven't you? The didn't become better or lesser players did they?

Kurt Warner wasn't the lesser QB when he had 21 TDs vs. 18 INTs while Trent Green had 16 TDs vs. 5 INTs in five starts during the same season with the same team. And he wasn't the lesser QB when Marc Bulger replaced him either. Only one has a bust at Canton.

Kurt was on pace for one of the best seasons of all time and our offense was unstoppable before his hand injury. It was clear when he came back that he wasn't 100%. Our team saw a clear drop-off with Trent Green at QB after Kurt went down.

Again, Bulger replaced a Kurt who had fallen apart due to injuries. We didn't see Kurt return to form until years later in Arizona. So yea, Bulger was better than THAT Kurt Warner. He was not better than Kurt at the top of his game.

We're not talking about a single opponent. Small sample sizes lead to uneven results. When you're talking about an average QB HYPOTHETICALLY replacing Goff and doing better on 2017 Rams, you aren't making any sort of sense if you're claiming Goff is a better-than-average QB. You're basically saying that the average QB could play above his head for a full season in this hypothetical situation. In that vein, you're saying a whole lot of nothing.

Hypothetically, that average QB could replace Tom Brady and play better if he played far enough above his head. But nobody would make that claim because they recognize that it would be equating Tom Brady to an average QB (without the qualifiers I added in). Either ways, at this point, it's not worth the argument. Whatever point you were trying to make has been lost in all this "context."

After his sophomore season did anyone really believe Trung Candidate was a better rusher or on par with Marshall Faulk because he averaged 5.7 yards per carry to Faulk's 5.3 yards per carry?

Only if you think the HB position can be judged by one number. You're omitting Faulk's 2100+ yards and 21 TDs in 14 games.

 

[jrry32]

And Jrry32

 

[PhillyRam]

Kurt was on pace for one of the best seasons of all time and our offense was unstoppable before his hand injury. It was clear when he came back that he wasn't 100%. Our team saw a clear drop-off with Trent Green at QB after Kurt went down.

Again, Bulger replaced a Kurt who had fallen apart due to injuries. We didn't see Kurt return to form until years later in Arizona. So yea, Bulger was better than THAT Kurt Warner. He was not better than Kurt at the top of his game.

We're not talking about a single opponent. Small sample sizes lead to uneven results. When you're talking about an average QB HYPOTHETICALLY replacing Goff and doing better on 2017 Rams, you aren't making any sort of sense if you're claiming Goff is a better-than-average QB. You're basically saying that the average QB could play above his head for a full season in this hypothetical situation. In that vein, you're saying a whole lot of nothing.

Hypothetically, that average QB could replace Tom Brady and play better if he played far enough above his head. But nobody would make that claim because they recognize that it would be equating Tom Brady to an average QB (without the qualifiers I added in). Either ways, at this point, it's not worth the argument. Whatever point you were trying to make has been lost in all this "context."



Only if you think the HB position can be judged by one number. You're omitting Faulk's 2100+ yards and 21 TDs in 14 games.

Yep, he could have broken a ton of records that year because the D was so bad be had to put up numbers for 4 quarters.

 

[-X-]

But is he average or not?

THAT very important question is what is being debated here!!!

The success of determining this is critical to the Rams getting into the playoffs, ya know?

Well, I can give you a definitely possibility of a firm maybe.
That's about as much as I can commit to that question.

 

[Memphis Ram]

Hypothetically, that average QB could replace Tom Brady and play better if he played far enough above his head. But nobody would make that claim because they recognize that it would be equating Tom Brady to an average QB (without the qualifiers I added in). Either ways, at this point, it's not worth the argument. Whatever point you were trying to make has been lost in all this "context."

Of course, we are all very familiar with what happened with Warner, Bulger, Green (btw, despite the success, I'd never say that 18 INTs is on the pace of the greatest anything, though). I provided the small sample size examples just to make the point that these guys aren't robots locked into results based upon how they may be perceived.

Somehow you don't see it, but you just stated the point being made. If an average guy can hypothetically play out of his head and have better results than Tom Brady, then why is it so hard for you to believe that an average QB couldn't do better than someone seen as slightly above average (within in another small sample size, btw)?

And it's not just about the QB in that situation playing out of his head because he's not in a vacuum out there. Again, there are external factors that contribute to his success. The lesser QB could just play well and get the better of tips, catches, and other breaks and possibly produce better results than the better QB.

:yess::yay::yess:

 

[Merlin]

are you mixing up qbr with passer rating? qbr is a crap stat that only goes up to 100.

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Yep was a mislabel. Passer rating.

 

[Memphis Ram]

Hypothetically, Goff could grow 3 inches, gain 100 pounds, and become an elite LT.

It isn't that I don't see it. It's that I don't see the relevance of it within the context of a Goff discussion. It's basically saying nothing, so you gotta excuse us for thinking there was something to the points you were making.

Just my two cents.

Quite frankly, I never saw the relevance in the different direction you took my comments after I simply praised the OLine play, weapons, and McVay/LaFleur's offense/play calling around Goff. That's where this all started. It was as if such didn't exist and I was calling the kid a bum or something. But, I had some time to kill so I played along nonetheless.

 

[jrry32]

Quite frankly, I never saw the relevance in the direction you took my comments after I simply praised the OLine play, weapons, and McVay/LaFleur's offense/play calling around Goff. It was as if such didn't exist and I was calling the kid a bum or something. But, I had some time to kill so I played along nonetheless.

Hey, I'm all good with you praising them. It was the way that you approached it that irked me. It wasn't just praise for those guys. It was praise for those guys to try and keep from giving Goff his due imo. It reminded me of the way Old Larry used to act when Bradford was our QB. When things went well, he always made sure everyone knew that the supporting cast deserved the credit for taking Bradford along for the ride.

Shitttttttttttt, I think we all know how important supporting casts are. However, we also all know how important QBs are. It struck me as odd that you singled out Goff as the guy to point to as not being the difference-maker after crediting everyone else.

But at the end of the day, it's really no big deal. Goff has a long career ahead of him. We'll get to sit back and judge for ourselves what he ultimately becomes.

 

[Riverumbbq]

OK, who wants pepperoni on their pizza ?

 

[PhillyRam]

Of course, we are all very familiar with what happened with Warner, Bulger, Green (btw, despite the success, I'd never say that 18 INTs is on the pace of the greatest anything, though). I provided the small sample size examples just to make the point that these guys aren't robots locked into results based upon how they may be perceived.

Somehow you don't see it, but you just stated the point being made. If an average guy can hypothetically play out of his head and have better results than Tom Brady, then why is it so hard for you to believe that an average QB couldn't do better than someone seen as slightly above average (within in another small sample size, btw)?

And it's not just about the QB in that situation playing out of his head because he's not in a vacuum out there. Again, there are external factors that contribute to his success. The lesser QB could just play well and get the better of tips, catches, and other breaks and possibly produce better results than the better QB.

:yess::yay::yess:

Well, this still comes down to you asserting that Goff is avg or just a system QB. I think the rest of us are saying a 2nd year, 23 year old "system QB" that is lighting up the scoreboard and leading a perennial loser to a 7-2 start and the highest scoring offense in the league, is not an "average QB".

Shows that the kid has a lot of potential. It took Alex Smith years to be a very good "game manager" or "system QB". For Goff to do that the 1st year in a new offense and to put up the numbers and wins that he has, is special.

 

[PhillyRam]

And who knows, maybe this is an anomolly and it comes crashing down next year or next month, but I just think that to see what we have seen thus far and to insinuate that he has little to do with this success, just seems agenda driven.

Especially when you put this into context as stated above in regards to his age, experience in this system, and his pedigree. This is isn't a UDFA or late round pick that is catching lightning in a bottle. There is reason to believe that he has the tools and skill set to be very good.

 

[FarNorth]

And who knows, maybe this is an anomolly and it comes crashing down next year or next month, but I just think that to see what we have seen thus far and to insinuate that he has little to do with this success, just seems agenda driven.

Especially when you put this into context as stated above in regards to his age, experience in this system, and his pedigree. This is isn't a UDFA or late round pick that is catching lightning in a bottle. There is reason to believe that he has the tools and skill set to be very good.

I actualy think Goff is going to be great, at the very least a top tier qb. I also think that it is already evident from what he has done so far, his determination to be the best, his mental grasp of the offense, and his outstanding passing skills. Of course it helps to be in a wonderfully conceived and creative offense, with the oline and playmakers lighting it up. Just wait til his Vulcan mind meld with McVay is complete.
And as a polite heads up to anyone who may not see the light, be aware you could provoke a lengthy explanation and as many follow up posts as needed to get us to the Vikings game.

 

[kurtfaulk]

Because he isn't average. He has elite pocket awareness and movement. That's not easy for a 2nd year qb. Controlling the offense from the line of scrimmage. Again, average qbs cannot do this in their 2nd year. After 9 games he leads the league in ypa. I read he has the best passer rating against the blitz. Average qbs don't do this.

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