Fun With Millennials!

[Farr Be It]

True, but let's put this in perspective. The automated cars that do Google street maps have gone maybe billions of miles at this point. And? There's been all of FOUR crashes and in every case, it was a person hitting the Google car. Every. Case.

Yeah. Well. When I hit that google maps truck I didn’t see it coming. I was looking up something. Technically Googles fault.

 

[Mackeyser]

Of course Musks billions in tax payer subsidies have been factored into ROI, right Mack?

I kind of don’t get the fascination with electric vehicles. I’m fine with research into better ways, but electric just offers trade offs to fossil fuels. Other problems. That is a large demand for batteries. I don’t think the trade off is such a no brainer.

Also, the picture you envision for automation truly is scary for humanity. I know you are just the messenger, and don’t support it. I would love to hear more of your solutions.

The automation is presented as such an “inevitability” but it gets into issues of freedom and liberty. National and personal sovereignty.

It is not just a case like the invention of electricity, or the automobile where the wheels of progress are for the common good and must not be stopped.

I’m sure a great deal of this is at the root of the push for global currency, global governance and population reduction. Evil all. The United States, in its current constitutional form, is not quaint, or antiquated. It is, I believe, the sole entity that keeps our world livable and at peace.

Well, I don't want to get into solutions because any solution in this environment will sound political even though I'm simply doing the math (with an emphasis on personal liberty and maintaining a solid economic mix and strong capitalist incentives).

And yes, I just saw an infographic that showed an electric car where the electricity that is supplied by oil is about 30% more efficient, but it's not as efficient as it's made out to be. Now when the electricity is supplied by wind? Well, that's basically free. Hydrodynamic is pretty close.

And depending on where you live and your economic situation, the self-driving car might look like a current car or it might look like a 4-6 person bus without a driver. There are airports getting ready to implement this kind of technology where the "modules" can sync and appear like a train and decouple on the fly (whether a physical coupling happens, I dunno. Probably not because the processors are fast enough to simulate coupling and well... lots of reason for and against actually)

And we definitely have to factor in the environmental impact of battery production. It's definitely not perfect but will improve. I fully expect that we'll see things like organic dielectrics And it's still better overall than any fossil fuel or nuclear.

Much like our current climate situation, there ARE solutions and some of them can be really cool. But... they aren't in the interest of the powerful and fly in the face of some deeply held cultural beliefs that are strong around the world, but maybe strongest in the US.

I will say this. If we don't decouple work from our self-identity this will be calamitous. I mean, in the US especially, people unsolicited will say what they do for a living because we so identify with our work. "Hi, I'm Bob and I'm a Sales Manager for a hospital supply company based out of Cincinnati". That's a pretty common greeting in the US...especially for Bob..., but it's not in other countries and I think they'll have an easier time.

The very thing that helped grow this nation has the potential to make the next transition very difficult. That said, there are solutions where we use the impending and unstoppable changes to everyone's benefit. I have little faith that outside a major disaster that we do that, tho.

 

[Mackeyser]

The Tesla's are freaking sweet. A super impressive machine.
The Gigafactory that was build near where I live was also given a ton of help from the state. Good business I guess.

What surprises me is that neither the Teslas nor the Volvo have hot-swappable batteries.

I mean, for reefer trucks or just so that the system doesn't need to be rebooted, they could hook up shore power to keep the computers running and any other systems and then just swap out the batteries for pre-charged batteries. That way the trucks could basically run 24-7...or at least more. That means fewer trucks doing more of the work and good and services moving faster.

I dunno about the "fast charging".

There are pros and cons, of course. Hot swapping means physical contacts that can degrade and that can cause a load of issues when in the fleet. But I dunno that "fast charging" will be fast enough with current tech.

I think there's a batter breakthrough that's coming that will change everything.

 

[Farr Be It]

:burp: “Hi. I’m Grayson. I’m a millennial gamer from Cincinnati....sup?”

 

[Mackeyser]

:burp: “Hi. I’m Grayson. I’m a millennial gamer from Cincinnati....sup?”

 

[fearsomefour]

What surprises me is that neither the Teslas nor the Volvo have hot-swappable batteries.

I mean, for reefer trucks or just so that the system doesn't need to be rebooted, they could hook up shore power to keep the computers running and any other systems and then just swap out the batteries for pre-charged batteries. That way the trucks could basically run 24-7...or at least more. That means fewer trucks doing more of the work and good and services moving faster.

I dunno about the "fast charging".

There are pros and cons, of course. Hot swapping means physical contacts that can degrade and that can cause a load of issues when in the fleet. But I dunno that "fast charging" will be fast enough with current tech.

I think there's a batter breakthrough that's coming that will change everything.

Could be on the breakthrough front.
I was interested in what they were doing with home usage and storage.
Have a piece of property I wanted to put in a bunch of solar and find the best battery storage. Seems that stuff sort of lags behind.

 

[Mackeyser]

Could be on the breakthrough front.
I was interested in what they were doing with home usage and storage.
Have a piece of property I wanted to put in a bunch of solar and find the best battery storage. Seems that stuff sort of lags behind.

It does, but now that we see Tesla is nearly unstoppable, scale is coming with Volvo and soon Peterbuilt and Mercedes and we haven't even heard of the Japanese heavy industries yet, tho they tend to keep things a bit closer to the vest with respect to announcements.

So with so much pent up demand... yeah, a battery breakthrough because whoever has that next battery breakthrough will have "first movers advantage" in something that can change society as much as the car did...or the internet...or maybe even more.

There are definitely things to be excited about.

 

[fearsomefour]

It does, but now that we see Tesla is nearly unstoppable, scale is coming with Volvo and soon Peterbuilt and Mercedes and we haven't even heard of the Japanese heavy industries yet, tho they tend to keep things a bit closer to the vest with respect to announcements.

So with so much pent up demand... yeah, a battery breakthrough because whoever has that next battery breakthrough will have "first movers advantage" in something that can change society as much as the car did...or the internet...or maybe even more.

There are definitely things to be excited about.

It's funny how things progress.
Creeping, creeping, set back, creeping, revolution.
We shall see.
I think there will gradual shifting not an overnight sort of change.
As a person who dislikes waste having my home and little farm on solar and well/rain collection (even though that is illegal where that land is) certainly appeals to me. But, it has to be functional and efficient, otherwise there is no point.

 

[1maGoh]

I will say this. If we don't decouple work from our self-identity this will be calamitous./QUOTE]
I'll say this, I know a few people that have decoupled work from their self-identity and I wish those bastards would couple that shit back up and get back to work.

If we start letting everyone take a living wage without earning it, then the people who have to work in order to keep the system running are going to get bitter. That's only going to to lead to bad places. Project that scenario into the future. It won't be pretty.

 

[Mackeyser]

Well, I've not stated any solutions for exactly the reason you stated.

I call it Keyser's Law: People tend to act rationally in their perceived best interest.

Now, I don't have the best memory, so this may be a corollary to someone else's work and if so, fine.

Any solution won't be perfect because...humans.

But this math is beyond contestation. At some point MUCH SOONER than any suspect, there will be more workers than work. Period. And the US can't continue to use the Defense budget as a work program. That spending can't continue indefinitely. So you couple fiscal responsibility that the global monetary system will demand with the severe pruning of jobs due to automation and/or consolidation and... there will be more workers than work. A LOT.

Lots of proposals will come out including those that make A Modest Proposal seem humanitarian.

There are optimal solutions, but... they will be difficult to even address in the current cultural climate, not just in the US, but around the world.

But the solutions are really the next step we can't begin to address because one can't endeavor to solve a problem that one doesn't fully grasp what IS the problem.

I seem doom and gloom because of the predictability of human interaction.

We're so close to Psychohistory being a thing... We'll just call it Behavioral Analytics, but...

 

[Angry Ram]

One of my favorite pastimes is to sit across the street from the local High School and wait for school to get out, then watch the students. As they make their way to the corner light and wait to cross the street they are all busy on their gizmo's texting or whatever it is so important to do than watching to see if a car is coming.
I get a kick out of watching them step off the curb falling flat on their face because they weren't paying attention, or running into a lightpost.
When I was in high school and I saw someone do that, we would laugh our ass of and tease the shyt out of them for weeks. But not these kids. they just look at the dumbass and say to themselves, " I've done that myself"

 

[Riverumbbq]

Well, I've not stated any solutions for exactly the reason you stated.

I call it Keyser's Law: People tend to act rationally in their perceived best interest.

Now, I don't have the best memory, so this may be a corollary to someone else's work and if so, fine.

Any solution won't be perfect because...humans.

But this math is beyond contestation. At some point MUCH SOONER than any suspect, there will be more workers than work. Period. And the US can't continue to use the Defense budget as a work program. That spending can't continue indefinitely. So you couple fiscal responsibility that the global monetary system will demand with the severe pruning of jobs due to automation and/or consolidation and... there will be more workers than work. A LOT.

Lots of proposals will come out including those that make A Modest Proposal seem humanitarian.

There are optimal solutions, but... they will be difficult to even address in the current cultural climate, not just in the US, but around the world.

But the solutions are really the next step we can't begin to address because one can't endeavor to solve a problem that one doesn't fully grasp what IS the problem.

I seem doom and gloom because of the predictability of human interaction.

We're so close to Psychohistory being a thing... We'll just call it Behavioral Analytics, but...

I'm late to this thread, but the subject is fascinating. Although the U.S. is only a small factor in the world's overpopulation, American's and other westernized countries like Japan & Europe are seeing a slowing birthrate which will not only help the climate situation, but also reduce the worker number to automated industrialization factor. The problem is we still haven't reached a negative growthrate, and much of this is due to immigration. As climate worsens in the short term, we may see mass migration in numbers far larger and far sooner than expected as fresh water dwindles, of course Asia & Africa are likely to see the biggest problems first. There is one clear sign, greater education and having a living wage reduces a populations desire for huge families, at least in the west.
Years ago the Chinese adopted the 1 child rule, and while somewhat successful in reducing numbers, the full after-effects are still leading to huge problems as they culturally valued boys over girls, and it's now estimated that millions of first born baby girls were drowned so parents could have a boy. Now that these surviving children have grown, the number of men who will never find wives has grown exponentially, which will also lower birthrates. This is a very painful way to deal with a problem. Opening every border isn't a solution, and neither is war, so how do we address cultures which won't peacefully curb population growth on their own ?
In the past we relied on technology to solve problems in medicine, food production, communication & transportation, now we see shoreline erosion and snowpack melt at an alarming rate, and scientific schedules show it getting much, much worse very soon. Can we convince third world leaders to invest in desalination plants & water conservation instead of guns, rockets & bombs, ... will the corporate military industrial complex allow for it ?

By the way, I believe it was Christmas Eve when Tesla announced electric pick-up trucks are soon on the way.

 

[Mackeyser]

Surprised no Asimov fans commented on the Psychohistory take.

It's Foundation-al... *rimshot*

 

[Riverumbbq]

Surprised no Asimov fans commented on the Psychohistory take.

It's Foundation-al... *rimshot*

If we had already discovered another planet capable of sustaining human life, it might be easier to follow the potential for mass action thru statistics, but i'm more concerned with saving the planet we already have using the current science available to us. jmo.

http://www.theworldcounts.com/stories/consequences_of_depletion_of_natural_resources

 

[Mackeyser]

If we had already discovered another planet capable of sustaining human life, it might be easier to follow the potential for mass action thru statistics, but i'm more concerned with saving the planet we already have using the current science available to us. jmo.

http://www.theworldcounts.com/stories/consequences_of_depletion_of_natural_resources

Well, we already have the ability to both understand and manipulate people using big data.

They've gotten to the point that elections can be swayed with targeted propaganda (every campaign uses big data now) and Target was able to discern who's pregnant based on buying habits since 2016.

Now that Net Neutrality is dead and the ISPs can sell your viewing habits (seriously considering a VPN), the volume of data that a company can use to microtarget ads or any number of things will expand exponentially.

I just meant that while we call it Analytics or Behavioral Analytics, Asimov basically called it.

That's all I was saying.

 

[LesBaker]

For example, if we were to discover what Dark Matter is

It's that stuff the Nibbler from Futurama pooped out isn[t it?

Problem solved!!!

The ol "trust the experts" line only goes so far for any reasonable person

It shouldn't because not listneing to experts is not a sound plan. I'm not saying experts are always right, but you always have to listen.

@macksayer

LOL @VegasRam you effed him name up twice.

Next beer is on me!!!

Dr Bluecoconuts?

It sounds like a board game. Or cable TV series.

The United States, in its current constitutional form, is not quaint, or antiquated. It is, I believe, the sole entity that keeps our world livable and at peace.

You have a world-view that is outdated and inaccurate.

So with so much pent up demand... yeah, a battery breakthrough because whoever has that next battery breakthrough will have "first movers advantage" in something that can change society as much as the car did...or the internet...or maybe even more.

EMusk is building/has built the largest battery factory in the world, it can make more large scale batteries than all of the other makers on the planet combined. It's already up and running and working well. And not yet anywhere near completion, or near capacity.

And it's funding is private. It's getting shit tons of tax credits but who gives a fuck if it's going to do what it's planned to do.

 

[Farr Be It]

You have a world-view that is outdated and inaccurate.

Never resist an opportunity to be an elitist, Les!

What about my World View is "outdated and inaccurate"? The truth is never "outdated". And change, in and of itself, is not always "progress". My mind is always open to positive changes, just not suicidal ones.
.
We are not going to agree much in these matters. Just don't turn to personal insults again.

 

[Farr Be It]

And it's funding is private. It's getting crap tons of tax credits but who gives a freak if it's going to do what it's planned to do.

A crap ton of tax credits? Try tens of Billions, while Solar City and Tesla consistently operate in the red.

If it is a great idea, invest in it yourself. I think the guy does have some merit, but he is also the biggest Welfare Queen on the planet.

 

[-X-]

EMusk is building/has built the largest battery factory in the world, it can make more large scale batteries than all of the other makers on the planet combined.

Have you done much research into cobalt mining?

 

[Riverumbbq]

A crap ton of tax credits? Try tens of Billions, while Solar City and Tesla consistently operate in the red.

If it is a great idea, invest in it yourself. I think the guy does have some merit, but he is also the biggest Welfare Queen on the planet.

How many $billions in subsidies have gone into oil, coal, milk farmers, the FAA, aircraft, military & space research, automobile, chemical, ... even Wal-Mart ?