Early Salary Cap Projection

[dieterbrock]

So, it's based on prior revenues or projected revenues?

Well, I think it's both, yeah?
I mean the projected revenue for the upcoming league year has to factor in of how 2020 ended up, which concludes with the Superbowl. Not sure if NFL combine adds revenue (lost), and the 17th game I believe is still up for discussion, adding the 17th game would (should) certainly add revenue to raise the cap.

 

[OldSchool]

So, it's based on prior revenues or projected revenues?

I thought they used projected revenues including tv revenues for that season and projected ticket sales, merch and other shared revenue streams.

I am only strident because I saw a tweet from a reporter saying in a question to the NFLPA, they said that the owners wanted $175 and the players were arguing for $180. If the players do end up waiting and proposing a freeze then cool.

How does NFL's salary cap work?

Each season, the salary cap is determined by calculations tied to the NFL’s revenue for that league year.

www.foxbusiness.com

The players’ share of revenue increased to 48 percent, up from 47 percent under the previous labor deal. Players can earn a slightly larger share through a media kicker depending on the size of the NFL’s future media rights deals.

As a result, the NFL salary cap is expected to increase significantly in the coming years.

 

[Memphis Ram]

My Armchair Amateur Salary Cap Analysis using numbers from the overthecap.com website

$180,500,000 Projected Salary Cap
+ $5,674,141 2020 Cap Rollover
$186,174,141

$204,361,472 Top 51 Players Before Trade
+ 8,591,765 Dead Money
$212,953,237 Cap Number

$186,174,141 Projected Salary Cap w/ Rollover
-$212,953,237 Cap Number
($26,779,096) Cap Space

+ $12,750,000 Cap Savings from Goff's Departure
($14,029,096)

-$20,000,000 Stafford's Addition
($34,029,096) Rams Salary Cap Number

Contract Restructures
Converting portions of base salary to signing bonus
+ $12,000,000 savings - Aaron Donald ($16 million conversion)
+ $12,800,000 savings - Jalen Ramsey ($16 million conversion)
+ $8,000,000 savings - Robert Woods ($10 million conversion)
+ $10,000,000 million savings - Matthew Stafford ($15 million conversion + add year)
$42,800,000 Cap Savings

($34,029,096)
+ $42,800,000
$8,770,904 Cap Space

- $4,766,000 - 1st Round RFA Tender Darious Williams

$4,004,904 Remaining Salary Cap Space (Perhaps enough to sign draft choices?)

 

[Memphis Ram]

If these numbers are even close to being accurate, the Rams agree that Withworth returns and his money isn't touched, the next in line to be restructured, dealt, take a paycut, or released would be:

Cooper Kupp ($2.5 million roster bonus coming up)
Rob Havenstien
Tyler Higbee ($3 million roster bonus coming up)
Michael Brockers ($1.5 million roster bonus coming up)
A'Shawn Robinson ($1 million roster bonus coming up) - Only significant savings if dealt or made June 1st cut
And finally, what may be the highest paid punter in the NFL in Johnny Hekker.

No one else can provide any significant salary cap relief based upon the top heavy payroll on this team.

 

[VegasRam]

Yeah, I called it.

Rather than truly protect the shield in all facets including economically, the fucking dumb as shit NFL owners are treating this as just another corporate decision.

It's penny wise and pound foolish. They're so fucking worried about embracing that loss to offset taxes that they're putting the health of the league in peril.

Most of the growth in the NFL fanbase is due to women and casual/fantasy fans. The core fanbase has remained flat since 2000. So, in 20 years, the core group hasn't changed, but all that growth happened... which is why we see the league giving them a lot of attention... and rightly so.

The problem stems from who those folks are. Are they gonna stick around if their favorite players are forced to sit out a year because teams can't afford them?

With a $20M cap decrease, that's $640M of salary that the teams cannot spend on players. That's more than 3 entire NFL teams under the current cap structure.

As COVID ends, we're going to see a greater realignment of interests as people start to embrace their post-COVID interests and passions.

Point is that we're at an inflection point regarding Americans and their pastimes.

Lowering the cap instead of freezing it is maybe the dumbest economic decision the league has made since the last lockout. It's so stupid, it's infuriating.

The economics are short-sighted, it harms the brand, it's going to be complete shit from a PR standpoint and just wait... even as New Orleans is up against it and screwed themselves on the cap, it's still gonna look like shit for the NFL... because they didn't have to cut the cap and the Saints are gonna have to dismantle that roster as they're currently over $112M over the cap.

It was and is still an option to freeze it and amortize the losses to ensure that the product on the field doesn't suffer, ESPECIALLY as TV talks are going to resume.

Fuck.

Heck, I'd find a way to give the "freeze the cap" presentation for free if I could... these idiots are mental...

This^^

I think the Owners may be keeping keeping the cap where it is as a bargaining/sweetening the pot chip for getting their 17 game season passed by the NFLPA. Doesn't make economic sense to me either Mack.

 

[Ram_Rally]

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/AllenRobinson/status/1358662002546245633


Vet minimum. Prove it, coward.

 

[Ram_Rally]

My Armchair Amateur Salary Cap Analysis using numbers from the overthecap.com website

$180,500,000 Projected Salary Cap
+ $5,674,141 2020 Cap Rollover
$186,174,141

$204,361,472 Top 51 Players Before Trade
+ 8,591,765 Dead Money
$212,953,237 Cap Number

$186,174,141 Projected Salary Cap w/ Rollover
-$212,953,237 Cap Number
($26,779,096) Cap Space

+ $12,750,000 Cap Savings from Goff's Departure
($14,029,096)

-$20,000,000 Stafford's Addition
($34,029,096) Rams Salary Cap Number

Contract Restructures
Converting portions of base salary to signing bonus
+ $12,000,000 savings - Aaron Donald ($16 million conversion)
+ $12,800,000 savings - Jalen Ramsey ($16 million conversion)
+ $8,000,000 savings - Robert Woods ($10 million conversion)
+ $10,000,000 million savings - Matthew Stafford ($15 million conversion + add year)
$42,800,000 Cap Savings

($34,029,096)
+ $42,800,000
$8,770,904 Cap Space

- $4,766,000 - 1st Round RFA Tender Darious Williams

$4,004,904 Remaining Salary Cap Space (Perhaps enough to sign draft choices?)

And then the tough cuts come...

 

[OldSchool]

My Armchair Amateur Salary Cap Analysis using numbers from the overthecap.com website

$180,500,000 Projected Salary Cap
+ $5,674,141 2020 Cap Rollover
$186,174,141

$204,361,472 Top 51 Players Before Trade
+ 8,591,765 Dead Money
$212,953,237 Cap Number

$186,174,141 Projected Salary Cap w/ Rollover
-$212,953,237 Cap Number
($26,779,096) Cap Space

+ $12,750,000 Cap Savings from Goff's Departure
($14,029,096)

-$20,000,000 Stafford's Addition
($34,029,096) Rams Salary Cap Number

Contract Restructures
Converting portions of base salary to signing bonus
+ $12,000,000 savings - Aaron Donald ($16 million conversion)
+ $12,800,000 savings - Jalen Ramsey ($16 million conversion)
+ $8,000,000 savings - Robert Woods ($10 million conversion)
+ $10,000,000 million savings - Matthew Stafford ($15 million conversion + add year)
$42,800,000 Cap Savings

($34,029,096)
+ $42,800,000
$8,770,904 Cap Space

- $4,766,000 - 1st Round RFA Tender Darious Williams

$4,004,904 Remaining Salary Cap Space (Perhaps enough to sign draft choices?)

Per overthecap.com it looks like just barely enough.

If we consider our 3rd rounder is what goes to the Lions we can low ball our 3rd round comp picks to the middle ground of what our 2nd/3rd would be my quick math is our draft picks as they currently are 2 3rd round comps a 4th round comp and no 5th it looks like just under $3.9 million. Which would leave us about $100k in cap space which we know isn't enough to do business with over the year. Add to that you're counting top 51 which is fine for this time of year but when the league starts it's actually top 53 that counts so we have to add 2 more league minimum salaries into it. So we can skate by for now but eventually would need more cap space open.

 

[dieterbrock]

This^^

I think the Owners may be keeping keeping the cap where it is as a bargaining/sweetening the pot chip for getting their 17 game season passed by the NFLPA. Doesn't make economic sense to me either Mack.

The 17th game is already approved by the NFLPA, no pot sweetening needed. They (NFL) just havent decided on whether or not to institute

 

[VegasRam]

The 17th game is already approved by the NFLPA, no pot sweetening needed. They (NFL) just havent decided on whether or not to institute

Has the remuneration also been agreed to, as in do the players get 1/16th more of what they are presently making?
And if so, how does that play with reducing the cap?

 

[dieterbrock]

Has the remuneration also been agreed to, as in do the players get 1/16th more of what they are presently making?
And if so, how does that play with reducing the cap?

Its the NFL option to put the game in play in 2021, pretty sure there is no difference in pay, I believe they would reduce the pre-season games if adding the 17th game. Players approved last year when the new CBA was approved.
As for the Cap, that was what I was saying before, not sure they will know the cap number until they decide on whether or not to have the 17th game

 

[OldSchool]

Has the remuneration also been agreed to, as in do the players get 1/16th more of what they are presently making?
And if so, how does that play with reducing the cap?

That's the kicker that I cited earlier this morning. The media kicker is adding a 17th game meaning the Owners would increase players share of revenue by 1%. NFLPA has already agreed to the 17th game and they and the owners are going to likely use the added revenue to offset losses to prevent a salary cap drop or at least lessen it.

 

[jrry32]

Yeah, I called it.

Rather than truly protect the shield in all facets including economically, the fucking dumb as shit NFL owners are treating this as just another corporate decision.

It's penny wise and pound foolish. They're so fucking worried about embracing that loss to offset taxes that they're putting the health of the league in peril.

Most of the growth in the NFL fanbase is due to women and casual/fantasy fans. The core fanbase has remained flat since 2000. So, in 20 years, the core group hasn't changed, but all that growth happened... which is why we see the league giving them a lot of attention... and rightly so.

The problem stems from who those folks are. Are they gonna stick around if their favorite players are forced to sit out a year because teams can't afford them?

With a $20M cap decrease, that's $640M of salary that the teams cannot spend on players. That's more than 3 entire NFL teams under the current cap structure.

As COVID ends, we're going to see a greater realignment of interests as people start to embrace their post-COVID interests and passions.

Point is that we're at an inflection point regarding Americans and their pastimes.

Lowering the cap instead of freezing it is maybe the dumbest economic decision the league has made since the last lockout. It's so stupid, it's infuriating.

The economics are short-sighted, it harms the brand, it's going to be complete shit from a PR standpoint and just wait... even as New Orleans is up against it and screwed themselves on the cap, it's still gonna look like shit for the NFL... because they didn't have to cut the cap and the Saints are gonna have to dismantle that roster as they're currently over $112M over the cap.

It was and is still an option to freeze it and amortize the losses to ensure that the product on the field doesn't suffer, ESPECIALLY as TV talks are going to resume.

Fuck.

Heck, I'd find a way to give the "freeze the cap" presentation for free if I could... these idiots are mental...

They may still make a deal. I am in agree with you on this. Freezing the cap and spreading the losses to future years (especially with the new TV deals kicking in soon) is the smart way to do it. Otherwise, they'll have this ridiculously low cap this year, which will force some drastic decisions. And then, it'll have an absolutely massive jump in 2021 or 2022, which will lead to crazy spending and bad contract decisions. It'll basically force many good or better players to take one year deals and bet on teams going crazy when the cap makes that jump. It's a stupid and greedy decision.

 

[Memento]

They may still make a deal. I am in agree with you on this. Freezing the cap and spreading the losses to future years (especially with the new TV deals kicking in soon) is the smart way to do it. Otherwise, they'll have this ridiculously low cap this year, which will force some drastic decisions. And then, it'll have an absolutely massive jump in 2021 or 2022, which will lead to crazy spending and bad contract decisions. It'll basically force many good or better players to take one year deals and bet on teams going crazy when the cap makes that jump. It's a stupid and greedy decision.

@jrry32 , I'M GLAD YOU'RE BACK!!!

 

[XXXIVwin]

Great posts, jry and Mack.

Like with so many things in life, it’s often easier to spread out difficult things gradually, rather than take the pain all at once.

Sure sounds like if the Rams are stuck with a $180M cap, they’ll be pretty screwed. As will many other teams.

 

[jrry32]

Great posts, jry and Mack.

Like with so many things in life, it’s often easier to spread out difficult things gradually, rather than take the pain all at once.

Sure sounds like if the Rams are stuck with a $180M cap, they’ll be pretty screwed. As will many other teams.

Eh, they'll move money around and be okay. But it's going to force a lot of unnecessary tinkering with contracts for the teams that are up against it.