Do NFL Prospects Really Develop That Much?

[Memphis Ram]

Why not? Kupp isn't a pig-in-a-poke gamble anymore. I would pick him in a heartbeat in the 1st round if I knew what he would become. We are not talking about an Austin Pettis here, but one of two sure handed receivers who are almost gtd to come up with a critical catch when it matters. The best Rams duo since Torry and Isaac.

Again, Kupp has been an outstanding slot WR. But, the attention defenses have had give to the likes of Woods, Cooks, and even Watkins on the outside has played a role in his success. Most NFL defenses simply don't have 3 quality CBs and Kupp has benefited from it.

I wouldn't take an outstanding slot WR in the first couple of rounds for the same reason some wouldn't take a RB in the first round. The position is easier to fill (much easier than RB, IMO). That person may not be as good as Kupp, but under the same circumstances, he wouldn't have to be as good for the team to still have a lot of success. If we could go back in time, I believe that a healthy Danny Amendola could be just as successful under these circumstances.

 

[Memphis Ram]

Taking a slot receiver in round one is a scheme decision imo. And I'd be willing to bet Kupp could play outside in McVays scheme of needed.

I'm sure he can play outside. But, I have my doubts that he would be as successful.

 

[jrry32]

Some do. Some don't.

 

[Loyal]

Some do. Some don't.

Theres Jerry, late to the party, again, yet refuting my argument in four words.

 

[jrry32]

If you want the Rams to draft a guy like Kupp, who enters the NFL knowing how to run routes and the small details of playing the position, root for the Rams to draft Van Jefferson out of Florida. He'll be 24 when the season starts, but needs almost no development.

I think Tyler Johnson is a better version of that. Van might be slightly more athletic, but Johnson is more physical and stronger. I see Van as like Brian Hartline. Great route runner with good quickness, but he lacks physicality and is too easily disrupted by physical CBs who can hang with him. I say that as a Gator fan.

I would compare Tyler Johnson to T.J. Houshmandzadeh. He's not going to burn you deep, but he'll be a headache in the short-to-intermediate ranges. He's 6'1" 205 with a bully mentality, can win contested catches, blocks well, and is a really phenomenal route runner. But what I love about Tyler Johnson, and it's the same thing I loved about Cooper Kupp, is his football IQ. He sees the field like a QB. He understands the big picture of what the offense is trying to do, can read the defense pre-snap and recognize what it's trying to do, and then will alter how he runs his route to help his QB out.

Kupp is an outstanding slot WR.

But, while I'm sure I'm in the minority here, until I see him play outside and beat #1 & #2 CB consistently, I'd say he got drafted right about where he should have been drafted. The top of the 3rd round wasn't a bad spot for such a selection. That is, unless there were teams desperate for a slot WR who passed on him for other slot WRs earlier.

Or course, I wouldn't spend a first or second round selection on the greatest slot WR.

That's a little shocking, Memphis. If a guy can give you 100 catches, 1400 yards, and 10 TDs per year, do you really care if he's doing it from the slot?

Wes Welker is an excellent example of player development. He went undrafted because he was undersized and posted only average speed. Originally signed by the Chargers he was released after one game. He spent 2004 through 2006 with the Dolphins. He was about to be cut when he was abruptly traded to the Pats and the rest is history.

I need to nitpick you here. The Dolphins weren't about to cut him. Welker was a restricted free agent, and the Dolphins placed a second rounder tender on him. The Patriots traded them a second and a seventh for Welker. Miami did value Welker and would have kept him around otherwise. He was just beginning to flourish for them.

 

[Memphis Ram]

That's a little shocking, Memphis. If a guy can give you 100 catches, 1400 yards, and 10 TDs per year, do you really care if he's doing it from the slot?

Nope. But, the point is that I like my chances of finding another slot WR outside of the first couple of rounds who could put up similar numbers under the same circumstances.

 

[jrry32]

Nope. But, the point is that I like my chances of finding another slot WR outside of the first couple of rounds who could put up similar numbers under the same circumstances.

I'd say that belief is less rational than it seems on the surface.

 

[oldnotdead]

There was a lot of talk within the organization that was confirmed later, that they either were going to trade him or cut him. There was another player, whose name escapes me now that they wanted to sign. Initially, they had no takers and at the last minute, the Pats made the trade.

 

[Memphis Ram]

I'd say that belief is less rational than it seems on the surface.

From your perspective.

 

[jrry32]

From your perspective.

From any perspective. The odds of drafting an effective player drop with each pick. By the time you land in the third round, the odds of drafting a Pro Bowl caliber player are stacked against you.

 

[Loyal]

From any perspective. The odds of drafting an effective player drop with each pick. By the time you land in the third round, the odds of drafting a Pro Bowl caliber player are stacked against you.

Are we still talking about the best slot WR in the NFL?

 

[jrry32]

Are we still talking about the best slot WR in the NFL?

Yes.

 

[Memphis Ram]

From any perspective. The odds of drafting an effective player drop with each pick. By the time you land in the third round, the odds of drafting a Pro Bowl caliber player are stacked against you.

Different argument. Of course the odds of drafting an effective player drops with each pick. That said, those odds are not nearly as dramatic when it comes to obtaining a quality slot WR. A much easier position to fill with one going up against mostly opposing teams 3rd best CB, safeties, and linebackers.

And the stats previously presented can occur simply by a team's QB locking on to one good WR and/or his coaching staff scheming for such results. More opportunities. Better stats. Popularity contest Pro Bowl. Kupp, for example, has gotten several passes his way when others were wide open and ignored.

But, the key is, the need for a Pro Bowl caliber slot WR in the grand scheme of things (trying to win a Championship) is far less necessary than obtaining other positional needs that can have a greater impact. Good QBs, pass rushers. left tackles, cover corners. These positions have a greater effect on the outcome of games and are harder to find thus the use of higher draft selections in an attempt to fill them. And they don't have to be Pro Bowlers to have a greater impact than the so-called Pro Bowl slot WR.

 

[jrry32]

Different argument. Of course the odds of drafting an effective player drops with each pick. That said, those odds are not nearly as dramatic when it comes to obtaining a quality slot WR. A much easier position to fill with one going up against mostly opposing teams 3rd best CB, safeties, and linebackers.

And the stats previously presented can occur simply by a team's QB locking on to one good WR and/or his coaching staff scheming for such results. More opportunities. Better stats. Popularity contest Pro Bowl. Kupp, for example, has gotten several passes his way when others were wide open and ignored.

But, the key is, the need for a Pro Bowl caliber slot WR in the grand scheme of things (trying to win a Championship) is far less necessary than obtaining other positional needs that can have a greater impact. Good QBs, pass rushers. left tackles, cover corners. These positions have a greater effect on the outcome of games and are harder to find thus the use of higher draft selections in an attempt to fill them. And they don't have to be Pro Bowlers to have a greater impact than the so-called Pro Bowl slot WR.

I want to win football games. You win football games by putting the ball in the end-zone. Slot or not, there aren't many guys who have the ability to consistently put up 1000+ yards and 10+ TDs in a season. If I can find that guy, I don't care where he plays.

 

[Memphis Ram]

I want to win football games. You win football games by putting the ball in the end-zone. Slot or not, there aren't many guys who have the ability to consistently put up 1000+ yards and 10+ TDs in a season. If I can find that guy, I don't care where he plays.

I'd love to have that player, too. Playing outside or in the slot.

But, I understand that opportunity plays a large role in a player obtaining those stats. And that having one WR reach that stat line doesn't guarantee a winning season no matter where he plays. Example: Isaac Bruce had 119 receptions, 1,781 yards, and 13 TDs for the 7-9 St. Louis Rams one year.

 

[jrry32]

I'd love to have that player, too. Playing outside or in the slot.

But, I understand that opportunity plays a large role in a player obtaining those stats. And that having one WR reach that stat line doesn't guarantee a winning season.

You're right that it doesn't. But my philosophy has always been that the draft is a crapshoot and that you should take what you can get. Yeah, you might be able to find a slot WR in the 3rd round who can produce like that, but the odds are still stacked against you doing it. At the end of the day, if I find a guy who can produce at a high level, I'm happy. Even the first round has a bust rate of 40% to 50%. It only gets worse from there. If I'm consistently hitting on my first and second round picks, odds are that I'm doing well for myself and my team.

 

[Memphis Ram]

You're right that it doesn't. But my philosophy has always been that the draft is a crapshoot and that you should take what you can get. Yeah, you might be able to find a slot WR in the 3rd round who can produce like that, but the odds are still stacked against you doing it. At the end of the day, if I find a guy who can produce at a high level, I'm happy. Even the first round has a bust rate of 40% to 50%. It only gets worse from there. If I'm consistently hitting on my first and second round picks, odds are that I'm doing well for myself and my team.

My philosophy has always been to take the best player available within reason. And the within reason part includes positional value and roster needs. And despite the bust rate between rounds, some positions are just far easier to fill than others. And finding a quality slot WR has to be one of the easiest positions to fill.