Covid 19 thread

[Dieter the Brock]

Well, I have good news - sold the house.
Of course, I took a beat down on price but I am at least making it out
The buyer wants me out by May 1st. So I am ready to oblidge!
I will be moving to Kentucky outside of Lexington on 220 acres on the Kentucky River. Gonna get some good momma cows and buy a few pistols and a 73 Ford 3/4 ton and call it a day. Never going back - last move ever. At 48 I am done. Santa Barbara was good for the reset but this kinda life isn't for me. Don't need to be taxed to death and charged a fucking fortune for water. I'm also done with droughts and fire risks. Give me rain!!!! Give me snow!!! Give me humidity!!!!!
Anyway, really thankful to get out during this most fucked uptime (whoever is responsible for it)
Gonna live the good life.

 

[bluecoconuts]

Here's a nice chart about the Spanish Flu in 1918.

Pay attention to the dip after the first rise and the spike afterwards.

Here's some history:

As cases began popping up, social distancing and masks began to become the norm. Yes, we're basically handling this pandemic the same way we did in 1918, because we have failed to learn any lessons from the previous one and therefore did not prepare ourselves properly. Six P's everyone, six P's.

So as social distancing and mask wearing becomes the norm, despite some push-back people listen, and the curve starts to flatten, and even go down.

People argue for the lifting of such orders, to bring things back to normal. They protest, they yell, they scream, the government listens, things go back to "normal".

Whoops. There's that big ol spike coming up next. And then do you know what happened? The government had to take even more extreme measures to lock things down. Cities that did not re-open early did not have that second, larger, spike, cities that did open up did have that spike.

I'll repeat that.

The second wave (second spike) only hit cities that reopened and removed social distancing orders early.

We're not even at the dip before the second spike.

It's not time yet.

 

[fearsomefour]

Here's a nice chart about the Spanish Flu in 1918.

Pay attention to the dip after the first rise and the spike afterwards.

Here's some history:

As cases began popping up, social distancing and masks began to become the norm. Yes, we're basically handling this pandemic the same way we did in 1918, because we have failed to learn any lessons from the previous one and therefore did not prepare ourselves properly. Six P's everyone, six P's.

So as social distancing and mask wearing becomes the norm, despite some push-back people listen, and the curve starts to flatten, and even go down.

People argue for the lifting of such orders, to bring things back to normal. They protest, they yell, they scream, the government listens, things go back to "normal".

Whoops. There's that big ol spike coming up next. And then do you know what happened? The government had to take even more extreme measures to lock things down. Cities that did not re-open early did not have that second, larger, spike, cities that did open up did have that spike.

I'll repeat that.

The second wave (second spike) only hit cities that reopened and removed social distancing orders early.

We're not even at the dip before the second spike.

It's not time yet.

Most flu epidemics have behaved this way historically.
Is this the first or second wave....that’s the question.
A lot things have changed since 1918 that make fighting a pandemic like this both easier and more difficult.

 

[fearsomefour]

Well, I have good news - sold the house.
Of course, I took a beat down on price but I am at least making it out
The buyer wants me out by May 1st. So I am ready to oblidge!
I will be moving to Kentucky outside of Lexington on 220 acres on the Kentucky River. Gonna get some good momma cows and buy a few pistols and a 73 Ford 3/4 ton and call it a day. Never going back - last move ever. At 48 I am done. Santa Barbara was good for the reset but this kinda life isn't for me. Don't need to be taxed to death and charged a fucking fortune for water. I'm also done with droughts and fire risks. Give me rain!!!! Give me snow!!! Give me humidity!!!!!
Anyway, really thankful to get out during this most fucked uptime (whoever is responsible for it)
Gonna live the good life.

Make sure you and others leaving the former golden state don’t destroy your new homes the same way.
Santa Barbara is tough to beat.

 

[Dieter the Brock]

Make sure you and others leaving the former golden state don’t destroy your new homes the same way.
Santa Barbara is tough to beat.

I lived in Texas for 20 plus years
My move to SB was has been 1.5 years
Whatever is happening here will continue after I’m gone
This place never worked for my lifestyle - after ranching for 18 years and living on huge acreage you appreciate what freedom is
- so whatever is destroyed or not destroyed has zero to do with my footsteps

 

[fearsomefour]

I lived in Texas for 20 plus years
My move to SB was has been 1.5 years
Whatever is happening here will continue after I’m gone
This place never worked for my lifestyle - after ranching for 18 years and living on huge acreage you appreciate what freedom is
- so whatever is destroyed or not destroyed has zero to do with my footsteps

Nice.
I was being tongue in cheek.
Santa Barbara is beautiful however.
I miss perfect weather.
But ungodly expensive.

 

[Dieter the Brock]

Nice.
I was being tongue in cheek.
Santa Barbara is beautiful however.
I miss perfect weather.
But ungodly expensive.

I thought you were hahha, but yeah it’s ungodly expensive - i mean I am looking at the most insane ocean views from this place and if it hadn’t been for this covid thing I would have made out well. But I am blessed to get out early and move on with my life instead of being bled to death.
The guy who bought this place is worth like 300 million so there you go. It’s paradise if you’ve sold your company to PayPal - for the rest of us blokes..... give me a fishing pole and a beer and I am good

The channel islands are looking insane today from the patio

 

[bluecoconuts]

Is this the first or second wave....that’s the question.
A lot things have changed since 1918 that make fighting a pandemic like this both easier and more difficult.

Right now? We're 100% in the first wave.

 

[Dieter the Brock]

Right now? We're 100% in the first wave.

 

[fearsomefour]

I thought you were hahha, but yeah it’s ungodly expensive - i mean I am looking at the most insane ocean views from this place and if it hadn’t been for this covid thing I would have made out well. But I am blessed to get out early and move on with my life instead of being bled to death.
The guy who bought this place is worth like 300 million so there you go. It’s paradise if you’ve sold your company to PayPal - for the rest of us blokes..... give me a fishing pole and a beer and I am good

The channel islands are looking insane today from the patio
View attachment 35763

Amazing place.
Grew up up the coast a bit.
Good ocean fishing.....when you are allowed.

 

[Dieter the Brock]

Amazing place.
Grew up up the coast a bit.
Good ocean fishing.....when you are allowed.

It’s glorious here - hence why I was easily seduced!!!!
I went out a couple times and got some huge rock fish and a cod. I wanted to go to out again but that’s not happening now.
Good thing is I made lots of friends out here and will need to come back for my work now and then so i can always make up for lost time

 

[bluecoconuts]

View attachment 35764

That's what I'm doing, taking advantage of those sales yesterday.

 

[1maGoh]

Right now? We're 100% in the first wave.

Isn't that the kind of thing that's impossible to know? If we used to not test for it at all (like last year, out even earlier this year) how could you know if this is the second really bad wave or the first less bad wave?

 

[bluecoconuts]

Isn't that the kind of thing that's impossible to know? If we used to not test for it at all (like last year, out even earlier this year) how could you know if this is the second really bad wave or the first less bad wave?

Because we would have discovered it before. This isn't a normal flu, so it wouldn't have flown under the radar as such in some first round. Even if it were less severe it still would have come up as something new, and they would have gotten a head start on developing a vaccine because they would have already been studying the new strain. New diseases or strains aren't uncommon, so as they come up there are already labs studying them to gain a better understanding of medicine.

It's like any other science, anything new that comes up has multiple teams that begin testing and researching it almost immediately.

 

[SteezyEndo]

Crude Oil

This is unheard of. -37?! Dollars! Never happened yet this covid 19 fiasco is diverting attention...

 

[1maGoh]

Because we would have discovered it before. This isn't a normal flu, so it wouldn't have flown under the radar as such in some first round. Even if it were less severe it still would have come up as something new, and they would have gotten a head start on developing a vaccine because they would have already been studying the new strain.

Second EDIT: fucking typos.

EDIT: I admit to now realizing I didn't read your whole post. I still think it's possible, even though it remains unlikely. I am removing the orientation offensive part as it makes emailed no sense in the context of your whole post and I apologize.

As I understand it, lots of people get it with few to no symptoms at all. If that's true, is it possible that the first less bad wave came through, went largely regarded as the regular flu, the doctor blew the whistle on what China was dealing with (their second wave), then we studied it and figured it out? I don't mean to ask if that's what you think happened. I'm asking if it's scientifically possible that given the mild nature of the virus in certain populations and that it's new so we weren't looking for it already, that a first wave went through without someone trying to determine if we had something new on our hands.

There was talk late fall last year of it being a terrible flu season. In fact, my kid's entire school got shut down and they brought in a professional cleaning crew to disinfect the entire thing. It was pretty bad in November. I've personally never seen a regular flu do that anywhere, but it's possible that it was a regular flu. It's also possible that it was the first, unrecognized, wave of COVID-19. Maybe not likely but possible.

But, as I said earlier, it's unknowable. We didn't have a test then. Because of rapid spread now, it's impossible to tell between the antibodies of a first wave and a second wave (I actually don't know that, I'm assuming though; please correct me if I'm wrong) making antibody tests ineffective for determining first or second wave status.

So are you 100% positive that there's no possible way that under any circumstances we couldn't be in a second wave because it's impossible that there's any chance that we didn't test for it when we didn't know it existed and didn't have a test for it?

 

[bluecoconuts]

Second EDIT: fucking typos.

EDIT: I admit to now realizing I didn't read your whole post. I still think it's possible, even though it remains unlikely. I am removing the orientation offensive part as it makes emailed no sense in the context of your whole post and I apologize.

As I understand it, lots of people get it with few to no symptoms at all. If that's true, is it possible that the first less bad wave came through, went largely regarded as the regular flu, the doctor blew the whistle on what China was dealing with (their second wave), then we studied it and figured it out? I don't mean to ask if that's what you think happened. I'm asking if it's scientifically possible that given the mild nature of the virus in certain populations and that it's new so we weren't looking for it already, that a first wave went through without someone trying to determine if we had something new on our hands.

There was talk late fall last year of it being a terrible flu season. In fact, my kid's entire school got shut down and they brought in a professional cleaning crew to disinfect the entire thing. It was pretty bad in November. I've personally never seen a regular flu do that anywhere, but it's possible that it was a regular flu. It's also possible that it was the first, unrecognized, wave of COVID-19. Maybe not likely but possible.

But, as I said earlier, it's unknowable. We didn't have a test then. Because of rapid spread now, it's impossible to tell between the antibodies of a first wave and a second wave (I actually don't know that, I'm assuming though; please correct me if I'm wrong) making antibody tests ineffective for determining first or second wave status.

So are you 100% positive that there's no possible way that under any circumstances we couldn't be in a second wave because it's impossible that there's any chance that we didn't test for it when we didn't know it existed and didn't have a test for it?

It's not unknowable, when the people getting the flu last year were getting sick, during tests doctors would have found out that this is a new strain. Every flu season there are doctors who are getting samples of strains and doing experiments on them so we can better understand how the flu changes. During that time they would have discovered the new virus and began doing experiments. Especially since this is a strain of coronavirus, which has caused issues in the past with SARS and MERS.

 

[fearsomefour]

Crude Oil

This is unheard of. -37?! Dollars! Never happened yet this covid 19 fiasco is diverting attention...

Cut to me wildly trying to weld makeshift oil storage tanks in my backyard out of recycled storage sheds and aluminum siding.....

 

[Merlin]

Well, I have good news - sold the house.
Of course, I took a beat down on price but I am at least making it out
The buyer wants me out by May 1st. So I am ready to oblidge!
I will be moving to Kentucky outside of Lexington on 220 acres on the Kentucky River. Gonna get some good momma cows and buy a few pistols and a 73 Ford 3/4 ton and call it a day. Never going back - last move ever. At 48 I am done. Santa Barbara was good for the reset but this kinda life isn't for me. Don't need to be taxed to death and charged a fucking fortune for water. I'm also done with droughts and fire risks. Give me rain!!!! Give me snow!!! Give me humidity!!!!!
Anyway, really thankful to get out during this most fucked uptime (whoever is responsible for it)
Gonna live the good life.

Congrats on getting out man. I'm a native Cali boy and couldn't take it, the low overhead and slow style of life is the way to go IMO. Never any traffic, no retirement tax, cheap prices on everything. Hell I pay my water bill at an auto parts store lol.

220 acres though wow. We considered a 40 acre home in NW Missouri before I realized I was being crazy lol. But you don't have to do anything with most of it if you don't want to. I've always liked Kentucky. You're going from "Psyche" to "Justified."

 

[Dieter the Brock]

Congrats on getting out man. I'm a native Cali boy and couldn't take it, the low overhead and slow style of life is the way to go IMO. Never any traffic, no retirement tax, cheap prices on everything. Hell I pay my water bill at an auto parts store lol.

220 acres though wow. We considered a 40 acre home in NW Missouri before I realized I was being crazy lol. But you don't have to do anything with most of it if you don't want to. I've always liked Kentucky. You're going from "Psyche" to "Justified."

It’s funny how acreage works.
5 acres like you have may keep you from catching the itch, but if you go 40 acres you end up wanting 50 and if you have 50 you want 100 and 100 makes you want 300 etc, thats why you see these guys like Ted Turner owning half of Montana. Still give it a few years and you may end up wanting to expand your fiefdom.
It just feels like you have your own country. It feels like you have what our founding fathers envisioned when it came to liberty and personal freedom.
Granted there isn’t much to do except look at cows and stare at water. But I want to see people it’s just a 40 minute drive through the country to Lexington.