Covid 19 thread

[Dieter the Brock]

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/Dodgers/status/1243611262732210176

 

[1maGoh]

The issue with that is that it's still going to spread and knock out most of your workforce for a while, additionally hospitals would be overran which would increase the death toll. Simply having the "most vulnerable" stay home doesn't solve the issue. Plus, where do you draw the line? The idea is not not overload hospitals, so they can treat everyone and thus we move past it.



So economies grow and change as conditions change, right? At one point our country was mostly agricultural, and thus our economy reflected that labor market. Then we moved into the industrial age, and factory labor jobs were the driving force behind the economy. As automation has begun to take over, our economy is moving more into a service based market. There are benefits to this, such as remote working, yet for the majority of companies, they haven't been taking advantage of this. Billions of dollars are wasted in overhead because companies want everyone in the same building to sit at computers and do everything from their work station anyway. Of course there are some jobs that do require people to be physically present, but resistance to change, automation on a more massive level and growing jobs in sectors that better reflect that market, while shrinking those that become redundant leaves our economy suddenly vulnerable to things such as a pandemic. Or imagine a massive natural disaster that has a massive impact, even something man made such as a nuclear war that wipes out huge sections of various industries among the casualties (imagine the impact to the entertainment industry if nuclear weapons were to land in Los Angeles for example), there are tons of potential catastrophic events that can grind an economy to a halt such as this one.

The desire to simply push through at the risk of others health and get "back to normal" doesn't address the fundamental flaw in how we do day to day business and life that makes us at risk to these types of events. Companies taking advantage of employees adjusting to working from home could, for example, help mitigate an outbreak like this in the future (not that it would completely stop it, but it would have a slower spread) if they were to stay to this type of work. Impact on our climate can be significantly reduced by cutting the amount of traffic and commuting people are doing daily as well, which could potentially reduce chances of a major climate disaster in the future.

There's a lesson to be learned here.

Lots of work can be done remote, sure. We're going 50/50 at my job. Technically, none of us need to be on the same place ever. But we're already seeing a productivity hit because it's harder to interact through technology that in person. Our development team is taking the biggest hit. Our shipping department can't work remote. If we weren't essential, some of our people would be SOL. That's not hanging on to old outdated methods, that's the reality of our business.

Now imagine you work for Build a Bear, a carpet cleaning company, a martial arts school, a pet store, etc. The government says non-essential personnel most stay home and now your business is toast. Restaurants simply aren't going to do as much business as they would if their dine in service was open. Lots of those will go out of business. That's going to adversely affect property managers and owners. Loans are going to default, which will hurt banks badly.

And that doesn't account for the fact that there's simply going to be less spending going on. Customers that don't have to go out won't. And online orders will mostly go to Amazon or other large well known retailers.

All that to say, "just work remote because you can" is a very privileged and dismissive perspective for the situations that millions of Americans are in.

Tons of businesses are going to close, especially if this goes on for another month (which is what my boss suspects; I am, as I usually do, not advocating for or against such an extended closure). Some people will have to money to capitalize on it, but it won't be all at once. It's going to be slow and lots of people will be out of work and starving to death or having less healthcare and dying than immediately before this crisis. Another month to 6 weeks of this (it's already been basically 2 weeks in Austin, a couple days more in the right-outside-of-that place I live) and it's going to get bad for small businesses that rely on in person contact. Customers (most of them) like human contact and having positive interactions. They want it. They want to go to a place and do a thing. That's shut down.

Do you know what my wife and I don't want to do on a date? Sit at home and watch a movie after ordering dinner in. But that's all we have right now because the things we want to do are forcing shut down. And it had nothing to do with their business model or being willing to work remote. It's just the nature of the business and that fact that the government told them to shut down.

I say all of this as someone for whom the only impact of the shelter in place orders I'm under on the city I live and the city I work is that I get home from work 30 minutes faster. It's generally been a blessing to have 2.5 hours per week of my life back. I can't go on a date with my wife, but I've only missed one of those so far. Otherwise I don't really go out, so it hasn't impacted me that much.

That doesn't stop me from seeing that the overall economic impact of this is large and getting larger. And I can see the people that aren't in my position, that can't still go to work or can't work from home, and I feel bad for them. There's nothing they could do with their business besides try to picky to something what entirely, to a market with established competitors that are better positioned to succeed because they've already been there. Like I said, Boober Eats is genius but every company can't do that. Out doesn't make them weak or stupid or clinging to an outdated model. It's just reality.

EDIT: Good golly that was long. I feel like Mack

 

[thirteen28]

The issue with that is that it's still going to spread and knock out most of your workforce for a while, additionally hospitals would be overran which would increase the death toll.

And what data do you have to support this claim? None of the current data, either from the cruise ship nor from the various countries that have outbreaks supports such a conclusion. Most of the data supports that the majority of people that come in contact with the virus will be asymptomatic or develop mild symptoms. This is your least vulnerable demographic. If they have no symptoms, why would it take them out? If they have mild symptoms, they can stay home until the symptoms pass, but they are not taken out long. The concern with this virus is not with those that are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms and recover (both of which help build herd immunity that defends against future pandemics from the same virus). The concern is for those that have extra vulnerability due to age and/or pre-existing conditions that would aggravate the effect of contracting the virus.

Simply having the "most vulnerable" stay home doesn't solve the issue. Plus, where do you draw the line?

Why wouldn't it? Certainly, a few here or there would get the virus still, but most wouldn't, and if you prevent quarantining the vulnerable with the asymptomatic - which IS occurring now - you reduce the chance that the latter will pass the disease to the former.

Where you draw the line is on a case-by-case basis. There is no overarching entity that can make a blanket decision for every person in the country.

The idea is not not overload hospitals, so they can treat everyone and thus we move past it.

There is not now, nor has their been any danger of the asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic people overloading the hospitals. By definition, they don't need hospitalization, and the latter group needs mostly a few days of Netflix and chill away from other people.

Can't say I agree with your blanket "false" statement.

Your cherry-picked stat of "hospital admissions decrease for 10 days in a row" is an encouraging sign to be sure, but it is one data point among many.

First, it was 3 days, not 10, and if you don't like the stat, take it up with Andrew Cuomo, governor of New York. He's the one that put out the statement that hospital admissions had declined three days in a row, myself and the intermediaries I linked were simply passing that along. Do you have data that contradicts Governor Cuomo? If so, put it out there. Otherwise, the claim that hospital admissions are declining stands.

Unlike the poster I quoted, I provided data. He made a blanket statement that hospitals were at their breaking point but provided nothing to substantiate the point. There is no data to show such a thing that I can find. If you have it, present it and I'll change my mind. Until then, in the absence of data showing hospitals at the breaking point, with the trend away from the possibility as set forth by the governor of New York himself, the assertion by the poster I quoted cannot and does not stand.

Just for starters-- common sense would tell me that if I had Covid-19 symptoms and I lived in NYC, the hospital is one of the LAST places I'd want to go. The ONLY reason I'd go to a hospital is if my symptoms were so bad that I thought my life was in danger.

Common sense isn't data. Nevertheless, I'm glad that common sense tells you not to go to the hospital unless you genuinely believe your life is in danger because that is exactly how it should be. And staying away from the hospital absent life-threatening conditions reduces the number of carriers at the hospital and thus reduces the spread of the disease in the first place. If more people thought like that, we'd probably have even fewer cases.

Numerous stories of hospital workers feeling like they are in a "war zone", nurses and docs dealing with PTSD, working long shifts without breaks, having to use masks and other PPE for over a week, even stories of infected nurses being encouraged to keep working as long as they are asymptomatic.

The plural of anecdote is not data. While I don't doubt that there are some health care workers who are dealing with some very challenging circumstances right now (and bravo to them for doing so), that alone isn't enough to prove that hospitals are overloaded. Many of these same healthcare workers go through this on an annual basis during flu season, or at least every few years when a particularly bad strain comes around.

Covid Death rate in NYC in last 24 hours is one person every 9.5 minutes. So I don't know who the heck Jordan Schachtel is, but his blasé response of "NYC has good news" and "ignore the media hysteria" is not helpful, IMHO.

Not to make light of the deaths of those who die from COVD-19, but more people die of cancer each day. More people die of car accidents each day. More people die of a number of different causes.

Furthermore, while deaths are a lagging indicator, the declining hospitalization rate in New York suggests that COVD-19 death rate will start declining soon as well. There is no need for hysteria and plenty of reason to ignore it.

 

[1maGoh]

And what data do you have to support this claim? None of the current data, either from the cruise ship nor from the various countries that have outbreaks supports such a conclusion. Most of the data supports that the majority of people that come in contact with the virus will be asymptomatic or develop mild symptoms. This is your least vulnerable demographic. If they have no symptoms, why would it take them out? If they have mild symptoms, they can stay home until the symptoms pass, but they are not taken out long. The concern with this virus is not with those that are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms and recover (both of which help build herd immunity that defends against future pandemics from the same virus). The concern is for those that have extra vulnerability due to age and/or pre-existing conditions that would aggravate the effect of contracting the virus.



Why wouldn't it? Certainly, a few here or there would get the virus still, but most wouldn't, and if you prevent quarantining the vulnerable with the asymptomatic - which IS occurring now - you reduce the chance that the latter will pass the disease to the former.

Where you draw the line is on a case-by-case basis. There is no overarching entity that can make a blanket decision for every person in the country.



There is not now, nor has their been any danger of the asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic people overloading the hospitals. By definition, they don't need hospitalization, and the latter group needs mostly a few days of Netflix and chill away from other people.



First, it was 3 days, not 10, and if you don't like the stat, take it up with Andrew Cuomo, governor of New York. He's the one that put out the statement that hospital admissions had declined three days in a row, myself and the intermediaries I linked were simply passing that along. Do you have data that contradicts Governor Cuomo? If so, put it out there. Otherwise, the claim that hospital admissions are declining stands.

Unlike the poster I quoted, I provided data. He made a blanket statement that hospitals were at their breaking point but provided nothing to substantiate the point. There is no data to show such a thing that I can find. If you have it, present it and I'll change my mind. Until then, in the absence of data showing hospitals at the breaking point, with the trend away from the possibility as set forth by the governor of New York himself, the assertion by the poster I quoted cannot and does not stand.



Common sense isn't data. Nevertheless, I'm glad that common sense tells you not to go to the hospital unless you genuinely believe your life is in danger because that is exactly how it should be. And staying away from the hospital absent life-threatening conditions reduces the number of carriers at the hospital and thus reduces the spread of the disease in the first place. If more people thought like that, we'd probably have even fewer cases.



The plural of anecdote is not data. While I don't doubt that there are some health care workers who are dealing with some very challenging circumstances right now (and bravo to them for doing so), that alone isn't enough to prove that hospitals are overloaded. Many of these same healthcare workers go through this on an annual basis during flu season, or at least every few years when a particularly bad strain comes around.



Not to make light of the deaths of those who die from COVD-19, but more people die of cancer each day. More people die of car accidents each day. More people die of a number of different causes.

Furthermore, while deaths are a lagging indicator, the declining hospitalization rate in New York suggests that COVD-19 death rate will start declining soon as well. There is no need for hysteria and plenty of reason to ignore it.

Declining new admissions is not the same as current staff levels compared to current work load. One of those tells you that new admissions are decreasing, the other tells you if the hospital is currently overloaded.

 

[12intheBox]

I feel like I can see two possible ways this thread continues to evolve. Not that they are the only two - just two distinct possibilities.

One. The virus dwindles down and we start picking up the pieces. The people who thought the world over reacted continue to think so while the people who want to shut down think the reactive measures worked. The argument never really gets an answer but the world gets better.

Two. It keeps spreading and it keeps killing. The overly cautious get a big fat “told you so” but the world gets scorched.

I’m rooting for #1.

 

[oldnotdead]

For what it’s worth, in Wuhan, they are using copious amounts of vitamin C to greatly reduce or even eliminate the absorption rate of covid 19. From what I’m reading, you need to take way more than the recommended dosage; and this is going to sound gross, but you need to take enough to have a loose stool, and then back off of that dosage. I’ll follow up with citations.

Vitamin C isn't retained in the body. In fact if you take more than your body can use it simply doesn't use it and as a water based vitamin the body simply expels it from the body via your urine. So over dosing is basically pointless. Lots of people are taking mega doses of Zinc which is thought to inhibit the replication cycle of some viruses allowing for the body to develop antibodies. But in reality there is no hard evidence that it works particularly on SARS and moreover ingestion of metals in large doses in itself may lead to other issues down the line as the body had a hard time dealing with large doses of metals.

All I'm saying is not that these things don't work, rather the evidence is anecdotal more than scientific so I'm urging caution in these homeopathic remedies. I personally use a lot of homeopathic remedies but do so with caution and the awareness of the issues of long term use. Most viruses have a bacterial component to their infections such as the common cold. Short term use of zinc and golden seal can potentially reduce the severity and perhaps shorten the cycle. IMO the problem with viruses like COVID-19 is that they can hit hard quickly and the infection cycle is prolonged.

What makes this difficult to assess is that of those diagnosed with the virus experience relatively normal flu like symptoms or remain asymptomatic so people can say they did this or that and it worked when in reality it might be something totally different as to why they aren't critical. This is why I for one urge caution when you hear about preventatives on social media.

 

[FaulkSF]

I feel like I can see two possible ways this thread continues to evolve. Not that they are the only two - just two distinct possibilities.

One. The virus dwindles down and we start picking up the pieces. The people who thought the world over reacted continue to think so while the people who want to shut down think the reactive measures worked. The argument never really gets an answer but the world gets better.

Two. It keeps spreading and it keeps killing. The overly cautious get a big fat “told you so” but the world gets scorched.

I’m rooting for #1.

There is at least a 3rd option. Many of us don't know who to trust. Governments skew numbers to invoke awareness, panic and/or obedience. Media skew numbers for views.

We don't know who to trust. We take precautions and we sit on the sidelines. We watch. We seek more information and root. We root for option 1, but we don't know what to believe. But we hope for the best.

 

[Akrasian]

Vitamin C isn't retained in the body. In fact if you take more than your body can use it simply doesn't use it and as a water based vitamin the body simply expels it from the body via your urine. So over dosing is basically pointless.

That's why I try to do vitamin C throughout the day, instead of a megadose at one time. Small glass of OJ, vitamin C candies at times (I talk on the phone a lot for work, and have found them to be effective to keeping my voice going) other vitamin C sources at meals. So I don't just urinate it out and be deficient later on, but maintain the upper level of what my body can retain throughout the day. One of the few things I consistently do for my health.

 

[thirteen28]

Declining new admissions is not the same as current staff levels compared to current work load. One of those tells you that new admissions are decreasing, the other tells you if the hospital is currently overloaded.

Ok, now present the data that the hospital was overloaded. I've seen no data to indicate that they are, nor has Governor Cuomo ever made such a claim. But he has made a claim that admissions are declining, and with that being the case, absent any data indicating an overload, they are trending away from such a thing.

 

[Merlin]

I'm seeing a lot of folks gettin hot under the collar for no good reason. We're all rooting for best case scenario. Does it matter if someone else frames things differently in how they process or deal with it? Cheers.

 

[-X-]

This is why I for one urge caution when you hear about preventatives on social media.

Yeah, I don't go to social media for anything other than memes.

ClinicalTrials.gov

clinicaltrials.gov

 

[1maGoh]

Ok, now present the data that the hospital was overloaded. I've seen no data to indicate that they are, nor has Governor Cuomo ever made such a claim. But he has made a claim that admissions are declining, and with that being the case, absent any data indicating an overload, they are trending away from such a thing.

I want trying to say they were overloaded, only that you didn't present data that they weren't. Someone claimed that hospitals were at capacity. You said they weren't and posted the thing about admissions. Those aren't the same thing, that's my only point.

While we're on the subject of demanding data...

Common sense isn't data. Nevertheless, I'm glad that common sense tells you not to go to the hospital unless you genuinely believe your life is in danger because that is exactly how it should be. And staying away from the hospital absent life-threatening conditions reduces the number of carriers at the hospital and thus reduces the spread of the disease in the first place. If more people thought like that, we'd probably have even fewer cases

That's you responding to someone saying common sense says don't go to the hospital unless it's life threatening. You don't specifically ask for data, but there isn't really a point in bringing up that is not data unless you're trying to invalidate his statement. Then you make a claim about that same common sense limiting the spread disease... But you don't pay any data to back it up. So if you're going to ask everyone for data about everything, follow the same for yourself.

There is not now, nor has their been any danger of the asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic people overloading the hospitals. By definition, they don't need hospitalization, and the latter group needs mostly a few days of Netflix and chill away from other people.

And then you make this statement without any data at all. Seriously? Where is the data? Maybe there is a danger because people are stupid (it's a fact; I'm not presenting data on this, learn to deal), they go to the hospital when they're asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic, and the hospital is a) spending time on them and b) unnecessarily quarantining them at the hospital. Maybe. I don't know. We haven't seen data either way. But you made a claim and didn't back it up with data.

Alternatively, you could present your data about the points and counterpoints your making and let the quality of your argument stand for itself. If people want to make unfounded claims, the thing that will help them feel better about talking to you isn't seeing you demand data from them.

 

[…..]

I haven’t spoken directly to Emma, buI was FaceTiming with the grand kiddos when an argument broke out over crayons. Once the argument got to the point of 4 kids all chiming in at the same exact time, I heard Emma bark at them from somewhere in the back ground.

so apparently....things have improved with Emma and I’m reminded how grateful I should be not to be locked down for 14 days with 4 kids

And the argument? It seems the 6 year old decided the white crayon was never used and not needed. So she threw it away. Her 11 year old sister was adamant that the set not be compromised

 

[12intheBox]

I haven’t spoken directly to Emma, buI was FaceTiming with the grand kiddos when an argument broke out over crayons. Once the argument got to the point of 4 kids all chiming in at the same exact time, I heard Emma bark at them from somewhere in the back ground.

so apparently....things have improved with Emma and I’m reminded how grateful I should be not to be locked down for 14 days with 4 kids

And the argument? It seems the 6 year old decided the white crayon was never used and not needed. So she threw it away. Her 11 year old sister was adamant that the set not be compromised

The 11 year old was, of course, right.

 

[12intheBox]

3/28/2020

615,519 Confirmed
28,717 dead

4.6 %

3/29/2020

681,706 Confirmed
31.882 Dead

4.6% mortality rate.

 

[Mojo Ram]

3/29/2020

681,706 Confirmed
31.882 Dead

4.6% mortality rate.

What is your source link for your updates? I'd like to look at the high risk numbers.

 

[12intheBox]

What is your source link for your updates? I'd like to look at the high risk numbers.

I’m using the Johns Hopkins site

COVID-19 Map - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)

coronavirus.jhu.edu

 

[Mojo Ram]

I’m using the Johns Hopkins site

COVID-19 Map - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)

coronavirus.jhu.edu

Thanks.

 

[Mojo Ram]

Very comprehensive information on case fatality numbers.
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

 

[IowaRam]

Wasn't this how Planet Of The Apes started