Covid 19 thread

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12intheBox

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Holy shit, I hope the language in that article didn’t lead you to the same “scientific conclusion“ of the headline. You’re smarter than that. If even ONE person actually died after having been to a rally, every single MSM outlet would have had that person’s family on tv 24/7. It didn’t happen.

But let’s say it did. You missed the most important part of that overtly biased pablum. To wit: “The Trump campaign contends that attendees are exercising their 1st Amendment rights.” And they were.

sure they were exercising their 1A rights. Does that mean its not dumb? Tons of stupid shit is done under the guise of the 1A, Flag burning, kneeling during the anthem, klan rallies - just exercising your freedom doesn’t mean you are you doing the right thing.


Here is the study if you want to see it, btw.
 

12intheBox

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Lol. You can always convey your sentiments in a eulogy for him. The way I see it, he only has 14 days.

I don’t think he is going to die from it - it just seems a shitty hill to make a stand on. I mean - Longhorn? It’s the WNBA of steakhouses. A 15 minute wait for Longhorn is embarrassing if Covid isn’t a thing.
 

-X-

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sure they were exercising their 1A rights. Does that mean its not dumb? Tons of stupid shit is done under the guise of the 1A, Flag burning, kneeling during the anthem, klan rallies - just exercising your freedom doesn’t mean you are you doing the right thing.


Here is the study if you want to see it, btw.
Yes, it means it's not dumb. And I say that because you and I share very different views on the severity of this "pandemic". If it wasn't so weak that you needed a test to know if you had it, then I would say it was dumb. If it wasn't so weak that virtually everyone that was there (based on demographics) had almost no chance of dying from it, then I would say it was dumb. You get the point. I also don't think the thousands who are out celebrating in the streets over this projected race are dumb. They're hypocritical. But not dumb.

And that pdf is just a longer version of that shorter bullshit you posted earlier.

"our estimate of the average treatment effect across the eighteen rallies implies that they increased subsequent confirmed cases of COVID-19 by more than 250 per 100,000 residents."

Estimate.
Implies.

Proof?
None.
 

fearsomefour

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My county is being threatened with another lockdown and businesses are asking people to get tested to prove we arent having a higher % of positive tests than we did earlier in the year. Yet you can only get tested if you are symptomatic or have been exposed to someone that is symptomatic.
Here too many people were getting tested......anytime anyone got the sniffles basically.
So now, you have to be symptomatic.
It’s all a farce.
 

RamBall

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Look - we aren’t gonna solve any world problems here - but are we at least able to recognize that the bulk of the anti mask, open up, Covid isn’t that serious kind of movements were right wing?

should the dems practice what they preach? Absolutely- they should.

I always liked being “none of the above”. I was able to embrace it when both sides sucked equally. And now, I’m on a side. It sucks being on a side.

bring your shit back to normalcy so I can go back to hating both sides, please.
I think the fact the Dems dont practice what they preach reinforces my opinion that for the majority covid is no big deal. We know who covid is a threat to and should do everything possible to protect them. But that does not mean to take away the freedoms of those of us that are not threatened by covid. I have to wear a mask when around anyone while working, the only other people I come in contact with are my wife, my daughter, son in-law 2 grand children, my parents and the members of the gym I go to. All are reasonably healthy, even my parents who are in their 70s. My dad believes they had covid before we knew covid even existed, they both recovered fine at home, they were told they had upper respiratory infections. Their symptoms were similar to covid, the flu or any other respiratory infection. The point I am making is the same thing I have been saying all along, covid is not a threat to anyone that is reasonably healthy. So lets get our children back in school and let small businesses open up with some restrictions, but let people decide for themselves if they want to wear a mask. Most of those that wear masks arent reaping any benefit due to improper wearing or touching their mask repeatedly. IMO and according to experts, that is more hazardous than not wearing a mask at all.
 

1maGoh

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Yes, it means it's not dumb. And I say that because you and I share very different views on the severity of this "pandemic". If it wasn't so weak that you needed a test to know if you had it, then I would say it was dumb. If it wasn't so weak that virtually everyone that was there (based on demographics) had almost no chance of dying from it, then I would say it was dumb. You get the point. I also don't think the thousands who are out celebrating in the streets over this projected race are dumb. They're hypocritical. But not dumb.

And that pdf is just a longer version of that shorter bullshit you posted earlier.

"our estimate of the average treatment effect across the eighteen rallies implies that they increased subsequent confirmed cases of COVID-19 by more than 250 per 100,000 residents."

Estimate.
Implies.

Proof?
None.
Greater than .25%? I personally wouldn't get super worked up about the wishy washy language because that's what they do (in my opinion), but the actual percentage of effect to me seems...

Also, it fails to address the extremely high false negative rates from time of infection to 3 days after symptoms. If you have a spike in positive cases, those perks are more likely to have been infected a week or more prior to the test than they were the day before. And when they performed their deep dive into the statistics to see if increased taking was the cause of the increased positives, they did the deep dive on the two counties most likely to confirm that it was the rallies and not something else (which they explicitly say was the primary reason for making the choice).

Finally, they don't address if there was a change in testing strategy. As an example of what I mean, Texas had a huge spike in new cases one day several months ago. The single highest day in new cases at that time. However, the reason for that was that they identified a place where they were already pretty damn sure everybody had it and sent a shit ton of tests there. High positivity rates are what happen when you test people you already know have the thing your testing for. It is true that those perks have it, but it skews the positivity rates into uselessness.

Now I'm not a statistician or anything, but I feel like they should have addressed those things also, while they controlled for everything else.
 

-X-

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Greater than .25%? I personally wouldn't get super worked up about the wishy washy language because that's what they do (in my opinion), but the actual percentage of effect to me seems...

Also, it fails to address the extremely high false negative rates from time of infection to 3 days after symptoms. If you have a spike in positive cases, those perks are more likely to have been infected a week or more prior to the test than they were the day before. And when they performed their deep dive into the statistics to see if increased taking was the cause of the increased positives, they did the deep dive on the two counties most likely to confirm that it was the rallies and not something else (which they explicitly say was the primary reason for making the choice).

Finally, they don't address if there was a change in testing strategy. As an example of what I mean, Texas had a huge spike in new cases one day several months ago. The single highest day in new cases at that time. However, the reason for that was that they identified a place where they were already pretty damn sure everybody had it and sent a shit ton of tests there. High positivity rates are what happen when you test people you already know have the thing your testing for. It is true that those perks have it, but it skews the positivity rates into uselessness.

Now I'm not a statistician or anything, but I feel like they should have addressed those things also, while they controlled for everything else.
I didn't pay it much attention because of how noncommittal it was as it relates to quantifying their numbers. Just implications of estimates from studies. But yeah, you're right, the testing in and of itself has been problematic for a while. A review conducted by the [New York Times] of three sets of coronavirus testing data from Massachusetts, Nevada, and New York found that up to 90% of patients who tested positive for the virus were what scientists refer to as ‘cold positives’. Cold positives are distinguished from ‘hot positives’ who are actually infected with an intact virus. ‘Cold positives’ have very, very low viral loads and are not ill, not symptomatic, not going to become symptomatic and, most importantly, they aren't able to infect others. The New York Times reported that if the rt-PCR test was run at recommended cycle thresholds, up to 90% of ‘cases’ would have been negative. But alas, Trump had rallies, people tested positive, and that means he killed them. That's what I'm to believe from that 'article', but somehow that level of mass murder didn't even make the chryon of CNN. It's all just so silly.
 

OldSchool

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Having a nurse that I'm very close to and spending as much time for work as I do in hospitals I've been told that if the test didn't make you uncomfortable because they were jamming the swab in your nose they weren't doing it right and you probably shouldn't rely on the test. Take it for what it's worth but that's from a handful of doctors and nurses that have administered the tests and seen those results.
 

-X-

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Having a nurse that I'm very close to and spending as much time for work as I do in hospitals I've been told that if the test didn't make you uncomfortable because they were jamming the swab in your nose they weren't doing it right and you probably shouldn't rely on the test. Take it for what it's worth but that's from a handful of doctors and nurses that have administered the tests and seen those results.
I heard that too, and mine was only slightly uncomfortable. Made my eyes water, anyway. But here's another question. If this virus is SO easily spread, to the point that singing will kill someone, then why do they have to go all the way up into your frontal lobe with a 14" Q-tip to find any trace of it?
 

XXXIVwin

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Having a nurse that I'm very close to and spending as much time for work as I do in hospitals I've been told that if the test didn't make you uncomfortable because they were jamming the swab in your nose they weren't doing it right and you probably shouldn't rely on the test. Take it for what it's worth but that's from a handful of doctors and nurses that have administered the tests and seen those results.
Jam it in as deep as possible for best results
 

OldSchool

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I heard that too, and mine was only slightly uncomfortable. Made my eyes water, anyway. But here's another question. If this virus is SO easily spread, to the point that singing will kill someone, then why do they have to go all the way up into your frontal lobe with a 14" Q-tip to find any trace of it?
Very valid question but to be honest as we've seen from the data this isn't as dangerous as your question implies. Unless that person has certain conditions to contribute to it and attack the person. When combined with some medical conditions it's deadly to that person, but for the average person it's a very bad cold but not exactly deadly. I'm in no way it shouldn't be taken seriously but we've seen the experts talk about this very fact.
 

OldSchool

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Jam it in as deep as possible for best results
That's what she usually says after she gets off work on Saturday night :D Oh sorry this is a family msg board, we'll keep that to a couple other threads I post in.

But side note did you watch the first episode of Hard Knocks this year? Remember the Chargers player early in it that kept pulling his head back cause he was worried about the nurse getting all up in that nose? Yeah that's what they were talking about to get a good sample :D
 

Faceplant

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That is the most trumped up (pun intended) study I have ever heard of. Stanford should be ashamed to even let this get published. There is no fucking way they could have anything resembling proof of this claim unless they had tracing on all parties. Stupid.
 

thirteen28

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That is the most trumped up (pun intended) study I have ever heard of. Stanford should be ashamed to even let this get published. There is no fucking way they could have anything resembling proof of this claim unless they had tracing on all parties. Stupid.

Exactly. These are the same types of people that say all the protests, riots, and rallies on the other side don't spread the virus at all. It's science being politicized at its absolute worst, and it's a major reason why trust in science and scientists is taking a huge hit right now.

Fuck them.
 

RamBall

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Having a nurse that I'm very close to and spending as much time for work as I do in hospitals I've been told that if the test didn't make you uncomfortable because they were jamming the swab in your nose they weren't doing it right and you probably shouldn't rely on the test. Take it for what it's worth but that's from a handful of doctors and nurses that have administered the tests and seen those results.
When I had my test done is was slightly uncomfortable, much less painful that snorting a half gram of meth and a little more uncomfortable than snorting a half gram of coke. As far as easily spread, my wife didnt catch it and we were quarantined in the same house and neither of us wore a mask. Which makes me wonder how I caught it, I would like to think I wasnt exposed to anyone more than my wife was exposed to me.
 
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