http://mmqb.si.com/2015/06/04/nfl-rookie-contracts-cba-agents/
FIVE THOUGHTS ON CAM NEWTON’S NEW DEAL
1) The contract compares favorably to the extensions given to the class of 2013—Tony Romo, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco—which had a range of a $20 million APY (average per year) and $52-60 million guaranteed. Newton’s deal is certainly superior to those of the class of 2014 and 2015, which included Colin Kaepernick, Andy Dalton, Alex Smith and now Ryan Tannehill. Thus, the numbers make sense. Were I arguing on behalf of Newton, I would have stressed that we are now two years past the 2013 market, with hefty cap increases since that time. The most impressive number in the deal is the three-year cash flow: $67 million. Regarding NFL player contracts—the kids’ table compared to NBA and MLB—that is real money.
2) In judging these contracts against each other, a key metric is existing salary. Newton was scheduled to make $14.67 million this year (his option year) so “new money” must be judged accordingly. While he will make a staggering $31 million this year, he will actually make
only $16.33 million above and beyond what he was already due. In contrast, while many have judged the Dalton and Kaepernick contracts harshly, they would have been making around $1 million in the final year of their contracts absent an extension, a much different circumstance than older quarterbacks. As no two contracts are alike, it is hard to objectively grade these contracts.
3) Kudos to Panthers general manager Dave Gettlemen for recognizing the importance of securing Newton. I am sure we can expect the same with Luke Kuechly in the foreseeable future. Following the lockout in 2011, the Panthers had what I thought was haphazard spending—cash and cap consequences be damned. In the past couple of years, however, they have shown admirable restraint, especially avoiding quick-fix veterans at wide receiver after letting Steve Smith go. They trust their scouting and coaching and are locking up their core players, characteristics of a club poised for sustained success.
4) On the other side of the labor equation is Newton’s agent, Bus Cook. There may be no agent whom I have worked with more, having had dozens of dealings over the years regarding Brett Favre. In fact, I am not proud to say that I gave out the first $100 million contract, to Bus and Brett, fourteen years ago. Bus plays the old country lawyer, but he is as sharp as a tack, and still at it. And he did well by Newton here.
5) I am still waiting, however, for one of these top quarterbacks to say to a team, “Keep your $100 million; give me $85-90 million fully guaranteed” (like an NBA or MLB contract). While the team would likely balk, they would have to explain to a player like 25 year-old Cam Newton that they will not guarantee his salary when he is 29 or 30 years old. It will take one of these highly leveraged players to break the seal on fully guaranteed contracts. Perhaps it will be Andrew Luck or Russell Wilson. Stay tuned.