GAME DAY Bucs at Lions - Divisional Round | 3:00pm ET

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rdlkgliders said:
Amazing, somehow he tried convincing us only 95% is worse than 55%. I hope his wife taught the kids to count their fingers
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Are you talking about the two point conversion? It's 95% of 1 versus 55% of 2. Your expected points are higher with 55% of 2.
 
Angry Ram said:
I wasn't and still not a fan of how Les Snead was dunked on to prop up Brad. But yeah he's done a good job sans that Jameson Williams trade up.

I was just about to forgive all and move on. Especially after listening to the KD interview.

Then last week happened.
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I feel the same. But watching that Detroit crowd tonight I gotta admit I cracked a few smiles.
 
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Btw Lions, that last pick by Mayfield was thrown right at Purdy's sweet spot. Most of his 10-15 yard throws are thrown straight ahead in between the hash marks.
 
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i was actually rooting against the lions for a bit until i realized the lions have the best chance to eliminate the 9r's so go goff

go rams'..

slo
 
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jrry32 said:
Are you talking about the two point conversion? It's 95% of 1 versus 55% of 2. Your expected points are higher with 55% of 2.
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Lower conversion rate, yes it is a game of chances but I am kicking at 95% before going for 2 @ 55%, specifically with their being no need for 2 there. It is truly a exponential scale where each kick is 95% success rate and each 2pt is 55%. Two 2 pt conversions aren't 110% but more like 82.5% to get 2 points total in 2 tries on a linear scale? Unless my dependent probability math is off I only did it out of my head maybe it is off Jrry
 
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I unfortunately couldn't watch the gm but saw the lions won. Who would've thought they be in the nfccg?
 
We almost had them. Hope they put up a good fight. At the least I want to see the shitters sweat.
 
rdlkgliders said:
Lower conversion rate, yes it is a game of chances but I am kicking at 95% before going for 2 @ 55%, specifically with their being no need for 2 there. It is truly a exponential scale where each kick is 95% success rate and each 2pt is 55%. Two 2 pt conversions aren't 110% but more like 82.5% to get 2 points total in 2 tries on a linear scale? Unless my dependent probability math is off I only did it out of my head maybe it is off Jrry
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Your expected points per 2PC using that metric is 1.10. Your expected points per PAT using that metric is 0.95. In that situation, it makes sense to go for two. Particularly because if you make it, you win with the next TD and PAT. If you miss it, you can still tie with TD and a 2PC. You will know exactly what you need to win or tie.
 
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Giles said:
I unfortunately couldn't watch the gm but saw the lions won. Who would've thought they be in the nfccg?
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That's what happens when the NFL fixes a game for the home team that is so deserving of a playoff victory, they waited so long, let's give them a playoff win. Then the next game they play a team that wasn't that good from a weak division.
 
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Giles said:
Yea idk about that.
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Duck Dynasty GIF by DefyTV
 
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