Los Angeles Rams
The Rams took the Lions' best punch on the chin, giving up 24 first-half points and falling behind by 10, but L.A. calmly regained control over the end of the second quarter and into the second half. Quarterback Matthew Stafford and coach Sean McVay zeroed in on Lions cornerback D.J. Reed, targeting him seven times in the first half for four completions and 97 yards. Three of the four completions were deep or intermediate routes that took advantage of Reed's aggressiveness, showing him one break before hitting him with another.For years under McVay, the Rams were spammers. They identified a few core concepts, finicked with the window dressing and hit them over and over and over again. But this is the most balanced Rams team McVay has ever fielded. Los Angeles has the star receivers (Puka Nacua, Davante Adams) to live in isolation shots against man coverage. It has the offensive line to protect on long-developing play-action concepts streaking across the field. It has a quarterback who can execute both approaches. It has the secondary personnel grouping (multiple-TE sets) that allows it to become more variable in the running game and duplicitous in the passing game. Plus, Nacua's strength as a blocker and Blake Corum's emergence behind Kyren Williams add more layers to the running game. You see how this goes?
Out of this diversity comes precision. The Rams have the tools to hit a defense exactly where it hurts. The first half was "attack D.J. Reed." The Lions benched Reed in the second half, playing him in only multi-cornerback sets or when Amik Robertson got banged up.
But then the second half became "dominate with 13 personnel." Of the Rams' 35 second-half plays, 27 were in 13 personnel (1 RB, 3 TEs, 1 WR); they were running it at a 70% clip even before Adams' fourth-quarter hamstring injury. The Lions were run-blitzing the heavy-TE looks endlessly, trying to get penetration against the Rams' patient running backs, and that opened up the quick play-action throws.
That the Rams have an elite offense is generally unsurprising. The McVay/Stafford/Nacua triumvirate is always going to print quality offense. It's the additional layers this season that take them from typical Rams-y goodness to unprecedented Rams-y goodness. Those layers are in jeopardy now that Adams' injury looks like a multiweek issue that could last into the postseason. But the Rams have been impressively healthy on offense so far and have plenty of resources to lean on in Adams' absence.
The Rams' defense is the bigger surprise and bigger story. Sunday was an investigation into their one great weakness: cornerback play. While Emmanuel Forbes Jr.'s career recovery in Los Angeles has been heartwarming, he remains a gettable cover man who does not anticipate well in man coverage, nor challenge the catch point with great physicality. Forbes was targeted nine times Sunday, allowing six receptions for 84 yards. In the Rams' surprising loss to the Panthers two weeks ago, Forbes was the biggest culprit -- 6 targets, 5 receptions, 110 yards, 2 scores allowed.
With standout nickel Quentin Lake still on injured reserve, the cornerbacks are not the caliber of players that discourage targets. They're smaller players who excel clicking and closing from deep zone alignments, so anticipatory quarterbacks who trust their wideouts can shred the space between the zones. Jared Goff was the author of such a game Sunday, but Mac Jones did it twice, too.
When coordinator Chris Shula's zone-heavy defensive philosophy morphs into match coverages in which corners have to play receivers in phase, the challenge of having smaller defensive backs becomes evident. Again, quarterbacks willing to rip throws to larger receivers in tight windows can make hay. In Week 3, the Eagles had success with Jalen Hurts throwing to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, two of the league's elite catch-point players. The Panthers did the same with Bryce Young throwing to Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker.
The Rams' standing solution has been to accelerate the quarterback in the pocket. Los Angeles is ninth in pressure rate despite having no defensive linemen who rank in the top 40 in individual pressure rate. Byron Young leads the team with 11 sacks, but his pressure rate is in the George Karlaftis-Travon Walker range. Jared Verse's 9.9% pressure rate leads the team but comes right between Baron Browning and Carl Granderson in the leaguewide rankings. Verse and Young are 25th and 27th in pass rush win rate on the edge, respectively.
But the Rams don't generate pressure the old-fashioned way, through elite pass rushers on the outside. Verse and Young are pocket pushers who collapse potential escape routes for mobile quarterbacks. Braden Fiske and Kobie Turner are among the top 10 among defensive tackles in win rate from interior alignments, and the Rams send heavy doses of second-level blitzes and simulated pressure down the interior gaps. They want to pressure quarterbacks -- especially immobile ones such as Goff -- at their feet to prevent them from climbing the pocket into aggressive throws.
This largely works well, and it is enormously to Shula's credit. The Rams have the cheapest defense in the league by total salary cap spent, but the system is well catered to the roster's strengths. The edges might not be elite sack artists, but their absurd play strength makes run fits easier from light boxes. Free agent star Nate Landman and undrafted free agent gem Omar Speights are two of the league's better starting linebackers; safety Kamren Kinchens is regularly placed in robber positions to take advantage of his playmaking instincts and ball skills. Shula hides his talented but imperfect depth chart from its weakest reps week in and week out.
But defenses like this are beatable. The Rams' defense will give up long, arduous drives to quality running games, and it gets stressed by big receivers. Those drives have the added cost of a running game clock that limits the number of possessions the Rams' offense has. Should Stafford and McVay's group make one mistake -- such as the fumble inside the 5-yard line against the 49ers in Week 6, or the end zone interception against the Panthers -- the game can quickly evaporate.
So who are the threats?
The Lions at full strength are certainly the Rams' biggest opposition. Goff is a great stylistic fit against this defense, the Lions' run defense is league leading, and Detroit has the size along its offensive line to combat the Rams' power. As we saw Sunday, Detroit's injuries have neutralized the threat. Liabilities at cornerback, tight end, left guard and safety made the mountain too tall for the Lions to climb.
The 49ers now seem like the greatest danger. The Rams split the regular-season series with them and should have swept it, were it not for costly end-of-game errors in Week 6. But even after building a 21-0 first-half lead in the Week 10 rematch, the 49ers clawed their way back to a one-possession deficit in the fourth quarter as Jones went 31-of-37 passing. Kyle Shanahan has excelled creating space in the passing game against Shula, and with Brock Purdy under center, it's hard to imagine that tune changing.
However, the Rams can and should dominate the 49ers on the ground. San Francisco's defense is terribly battered, and it's not a particularly big group against the Rams' multiple-TE sets. The 49ers' defense is the liability in the matchup.
That brings us to the Seahawks, who have been an enormous thorn in McVay's side since Mike Macdonald became head coach. In the Rams' 21-19 victory over Seattle in Week 11, Stafford averaged 4.9 yards per pass attempt -- his worst in any start under McVay. Were it not for a few explosive runs and four Sam Darnold interceptions, the relative ineptitude of the Rams' offense against Seattle's defense would have gotten more headlines.
The Rams get a second crack at the issue Thursday night, as they face Seattle in a rematch that could decide the NFC West and home field in the playoffs. For as much as the Rams need offensive solutions to Seattle's defense, the Seahawks need offensive solutions of their own. That game against the Rams broke Darnold, who hasn't looked like the same quarterback since (see Next Ben Stats below).
Unsurprisingly, it's the divisional foes who know the Rams best who present the greatest challenge. But the Rams are still a clear cut above the NFC field, and they will be until proven otherwise (perhaps by the Seahawks in a few evenings). In the AFC, things are far more murky.
