Aaron Donald’s contract situation

[Ram_Rally]

What's this mean though

 

[Merlin]

Demoff is not going to say something like "AD's agent is effing crazy in his demands". It was politely worded, but the Rams FO are always polite when describing their players. Always. Even if they are being traded the next day. So while being polite doesn't mean things are going badly - talking about it is not a good sign. And admitting that they don't see eye to eye after brief comments earlier this offseason made it sound like they were close, is not a good sign.

We'll see if AD orders his agent to take a large but smaller than demanded offer.

This is why I've been saying the Rams need to play hardball at this point. Let him know he's got a fair offer on the table, and if he doesn't show up they're going to use the CBA against him with the fines which he will feel. That on top of missing games (which he will feel even more IMO) will hopefully get him to look at this thing from the required perspective to help a deal get done. I'd tell him he's not going to get out of this, that he can plan on sitting out 3 years (this year plus 2 franchise years) because I'm not going to trade him. Hardball. And I'd keep the discussions going to get him inked all the while.

That pressure the CBA brings is real, and it's a tool they need to use. In order to get that dude inked and in horns for the long term.

 

[Merlin]

What's this mean though

I think it means Vinny is of the opinion Donald is overplaying his hand. And I would guess that Vinny has heard something off the record via the Rams to back that up.

 

[12intheBox]

Saying that they don't agree on what he should be paid is not harmonious. I've always felt the public opinion intimated that they were close (Snead and McVay comments), this sounds entirely different

I would think if they had been close, the gap would have been bridged already. I'd guess (and that is all it is) is that the Rams are in the 21 per year range and AD is in the 27 - 28 (Kirk Cousins) range. The Rams need to hold firm on this - AD certainly has a case to be made for why he is worth 27 - and as an UFA he might get it - but the CBA is the CBA. Under the CBA, the Rams have the leverage and thats why this thing will end at 21/22.

 

[12intheBox]

What's this mean though

I'm trying to think of who some of those players who overplayed their hands are. There aren't many who come to mind. Carson Palmer with Cincy maybe but this is a different situation entirely. Anyone?

 

[snackdaddy]

Interesting note above that Suh's contract was 86% of top QB money, and that the defensive market hasn't moved (those two contracts now being 63% of what top QBs make).

Really wish I knew what each side was offering/arguing for. But I'd guess that AD's reps want something along that 86% range, and the Rams are obviously not there.

86 percent of Ryan's 30 million would be a little under 26 million. I don't see the Rams paying that. 80 percent would be 24 million. I'm not sure they would go that high either. If Donald is set on this amount I don't see it happening.

 

[SoCalRam78]

Rams have offered him highest money in game for a defensive player. Donald wants to take it the most selfish route and go for QB money. He's not a QB.

If that's the case, wait him out. he's going to sit out and give up UFA? if he comes back on his salary, then tag his ass for the next couple years. We get him for his prime then he can go sign some Suh like deal at age 29 with some loser team that invests too much in him.

if he comes to his senses, he can take the Rams' generous offer.

Rams aren't dumb, they've budgeted for AD and have the dollar figure in mind. They're just not going to blow through it and jeopardize the rest of the roster to appease one guy. You make your budget for at least 3 years in advance. AD isn't going to blow that up.

 

[Merlin]

I don't know man you can look at that both ways. One could argue that continually not using CBA against players who hold out invites more of it. And the Rams have some guys on the near horizon who might consider holding out if they have a strong season this year, headlined by your aforementioned Goff as well as Peters and Talib.

Just saying that at some point the gloves have to come off IF the team feels like AD is overplaying his hand. Obviously we don't know. But rumors seem to point that direction, so just making that comment in that vein. Not using the CBA leverage is like a plumber who refuses to use a tool in his toolbox.

If the Rams are lowballing AD (which is possible but unlikely given what they did with Gurley/Cooks IMO), then we have much bigger problems. I just hope that is not the case.

 

[12intheBox]

Good point. They don't need to use the fines to maximize their leverage - they simply need to be willing to begin the season without him and keep their offer firm.

AD can either step in to make 20 million this year - or he can play out his rookie deal. Next season, he can make 20 million, or he can play under the tag for about 14 million. The year after that, he can get tagged again - and make more than 14 but still not 20. And he only makes even that much if he reports for all 16 games those years - otherwise, its prorated.

He is 27 now. He would need to be willing to take less at age 27, 28, and 29 in order to ultimately make it to UFA status and in each of those years, he would only have that year guranteed. He likely has an offer on the table in excess of 70 million guranteed.

He would be foolish to play another down without signing a contract first - and the only contract he can sign right now is with us. His alternative is to retire. This holdout is a game of chicken, but he has no endgame here - sooner or later, he will sign.

 

[Merlin]

And btw, the way I see it here's the recipe for attracting and maintaining top level talent in FA be it yours or someone else's:

1. Great staff. Check.
2. Winning program. Check.
3. Willing and able to pony up elite bucks. Check.
4. Great city/location. Check.
5. Ability to draw a hard line. Undetermined.

Can't be all carrot. IMO. And again I say this in the interest of letting AD know he ain't goin nowhere for the next 3 years so sign the MFing contract.

 

[dieterbrock]

I would think if they had been close, the gap would have been bridged already. I'd guess (and that is all it is) is that the Rams are in the 21 per year range and AD is in the 27 - 28 (Kirk Cousins) range. The Rams need to hold firm on this - AD certainly has a case to be made for why he is worth 27 - and as an UFA he might get it - but the CBA is the CBA. Under the CBA, the Rams have the leverage and thats why this thing will end at 21/22.

Again, I'm not making any assumptions. All I know is that is the first time I've heard a direct quote from the Rams (Or AD) stating that they don't agree on how much he should be paid

 

[dieterbrock]

And btw, the way I see it here's the recipe for attracting and maintaining top level talent in FA be it yours or someone else's:

1. Great staff. Check.
2. Winning program. Check.
3. Willing and able to pony up elite bucks. Check.
4. Great city/location. Check.
5. Ability to draw a hard line. Undetermined.

Can't be all carrot. IMO. And again I say this in the interest of letting AD know he ain't goin nowhere for the next 3 years so sign the MFing contract.

Change #3 to number 1 and the rest of the list is pretty unimportant

 

[RamDino]

IMHO... Demoff is saying all the right things. The Rams can't just "pay the man" without wrecking their future. The truth hurts, boys. It sounds like they are far apart, and the Rams may not budge much. I personally would not sacrifice the future of the team just to keep Aaron Donald. No one likes him more than I do, but it might be time to listen to offers from other teams, as I'm sure they are. Like I said before (using someone else's words) is Aaron Donald more important than Todd Gurley?

 

[96GS#007]

In many ways this simply feels like the modern version of the yearly Orlando Pace drama.

In ADs case it’s make $60-$70M guaranteed over the next 3 years or make ~$35M or less...perhaps Much less.

Here’s the other thing...Suh is the stop gap this year. I predict next year the Rams will draft or acquire a more long term “insurance policy”. When that happens, assuming said policy is slightly above average, the offer to AD will decrease.

He’s got no leverage. The Rams are looking at it from the team perspective which means winning football for the fans and they’ve demonstrated a willingness to pay (Quinn, Austin, Tree, Gurley, Cooks) which should appease future FAs.

 

[Merlin]

AD can either step in to make 20 million this year - or he can play out his rookie deal. Next season, he can make 20 million, or he can play under the tag for about 14 million. The year after that, he can get tagged again - and make more than 14 but still not 20. And he only makes even that much if he reports for all 16 games those years - otherwise, its prorated.

Let's see here... If the Rams' offer is at, say, $22M per year, which is still below that 80% threshold of $24M, he'd be passing up on $15M this year (rounding current contract up to $7M), $8M this year, and idk say $4M the third year. So you're talkin $27M lost by not signing now plus the chance of injury without the guaranteed money security.

So IMO he will not be willing to play out that scenario. He will hold out as long as possible to force the Rams' hands because he'll want a contract now.

But from the Rams perspective they can probably survive without him this season even if he does hold out for the entirety of the year, given the $7M cap hit. So if the team tells him to get comfortable on his couch because he's got 3 years of working out in his basement ahead, I have to think his resolve will be worn down, particularly because of who he is and how important the game is to him.

Yeah, I agree he is going to sign this year. Question is how long he'll try to hold out.

 

[FrantikRam]

I think the best example in my mind (aside from the current CBA thing) is the whiners' last dynasty. They spent themselves into cap hell, but of course extended their reign quite some time while doing so. Still, they never recovered.

I don't see AD getting signed as some sort of tipping point for us irt that btw. Obviously they need to get him signed. Even if it means playin hardball and nuking his wallet by making him pay those fines.

Tell him his life will be a living hell if he doesn't sign. That he can go on vacation for 3x years because he'll need to hold out that long. Then hopefully he'll see there's no benefit to it all and get his big payday.

This is the interesting thing: while some teams have come close, no team has won a super bowl with a player making $20 million per year - at least last I checked, and assuming I did good research.

Because I know for sure no team paying their QB that much has ever won. Broncos with Manning came close, and ironically he was terrible.

Which is one reason why I am actually kind of 50/50 on whether to sign him.

 

[Ram65]

Can anyone provide me with some examples of a team or teams under the current CBA that have been crippled by handing out too many fat contracts? Crippled as in having to let elite players walk in FA or get traded away for peanuts because they couldn't make it work?

http://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/...ontracts-drew-brees/zmgq1vwookqh1az189gd4pfag
Examining disastrous depths of the Saints' irresponsible salary cap management
NFL

• Jason FitzgeraldContributor @Jason_OTC[/paste:font]
  
  
  Published on Sep. 19, 2016
  
  With the Saints recent release of C.J. Spiller, they will now carry over $40 million in dead money, cap space allocated to players whose contracts were terminated by the team. That figure is about $12 million greater than the next closest team and four times the NFL average.
  
  New Orleans has become an habitual offender when it comes to dead money. Last year they also led the NFL in dead money, with $35 million in charges and they already have the early lead in 2017 with about $8 million on the books. Over the three-year period they have allocated nearly $35 million more in wasted cap dollars than the next closest team and the number is growing. When people wonder why the Saints are struggling, a good place to start looking is at the decisions that are causing them to basically waste 25 percent of their salary cap each season.
  
  
  The Saints' salary cap problems began a few years ago when they started using large signing bonuses to maintain most of their roster from their 2010 Super Bowl team, while at the same time showing little financial restraint in free agency. If there was a free agent available, the Saints needed to find a way to make it happen. To do that they would convert salary, which counts in full on the cap in a given year, to a prorated signing bonus that is spread out over the contract. When a player is released, all the prorated money assigned to the future accelerates onto the cap. The decisions made by the Saints' front office were minimizing the ways in which the team can manage their roster.
  
  MORE: 25 highest-paid NFL players
  
  By 2013 it was apparent to those who study contracts that the Saints were on a bad path, even if the numbers in 2012 and 2013 didn’t reflect that. The money committed to future contracts was obscene and the flexibility non-existent. As things began to come to a head, they doubled down in their strategy by going even further into finding ways to create cap space.
  
  They began using a salary cap trick to further reduce cap charges for the current season by adding voidable years to a contract. The void years can be used to spread bonus money charges over a longer period of time, even though the player is not going to be under contract in those seasons. When the contract voids the cap, charges from the bonus money assigned to those void years hits the books.
  
  This year alone the Saints used that type of contract to sign Paul Kruger and Nick Fairley, as well as to extend Drew Brees. The Saints deferred nearly $2.9 million for Kruger and Fairley to 2017. For Brees it is an $18 million deferment to 2018. The “buy now, pay later” philosophy has locked them into millions of dead money for the longhaul.
  
  MORE: How Drew Brees reached incredible milestone
  
  While there can be a time and place for such aggressive cap moves, the Saints' need for these should be called into question. The type of players that they have created cap room to sign have been those like Spiller, Brandon Browner and Dannell Ellerbe. These have all been, for the most part, non-impact players, many of whom are released or will be released after a season or two.
  
  While everyone in the NFL makes contractual missteps, the Saints situation seems more compromised by the lack of any long-term vision or planning. Many teams are very deliberate in their roster planning strategy. The Saints are arguably the most haphazard team in the NFL.
  
  MORE: Browner says he took Saints' millions and 'ran with it'
  
  In 2014 they struggled to come to terms with star tight end Jimmy Graham, who was under contract for one year at $7 million. Eventually they negotiated a four-year contract that paid him $13 million in 2014 and reduced his cap charge to $4 million. The other $9 million would be spread out over the final three seasons. Less than a year later they decided to trade Graham. Rather than just taking a $7 million charge by allowing his contract to play out, they took on $13 million. In this case, at least they received a first-round pick and center Max Unger in return, but they may have had an avenue to do that anyway by using the franchise tag a second time. That would have cost them nothing beyond the $7 million.
  
  More egregious was the decision to give Junior Galette to a huge extension in 2014, even though they still held his rights for just $4 million thru 2015. They added millions of guaranteed money to his contract. Months later they decided they wanted to release him. The charge to do so — $17.5 million. Had they just held firm in 2014, the cost to cut him in 2015 would have been just $900,000.
  
  STEELE: Drew Brees gets the contract he deserves
  
  These same types of moves were made with lesser players as well. Keenan Lewis, signed as a free agent in 2013, had grown unhappy with his contract by 2015, and wanted to see some type of change that would show him more commitment. Most teams would never entertain an offer with so many years remaining on a contract, especially for a player not considered a superstar. But, the Saints converted more salary to bonus money and also guaranteed his 2016 salary to show the commitment, except they weren’t committed. By 2016 they released him, adding a few extra million to their salary cap that they never needed to add in the first place.
  
  The cycle just continues with the Saints every year. Most teams have one year like this when they decide to rebuild, but the Saints are looking at a three- or four-year hole because they just can’t help themselves.
  
  The strategy hasn’t worked.
  
  In three of the last four years, the team has won seven games despite having one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Players like Brees aren’t supposed to miss the playoffs, but even he can’t make up for the millions in potential talent that the team misses out on every year because of their wasted cap dollars. Eventually the Saints are going to come to a time when Brees is no longer on the team and people will look back at all the waste and wonder what could have been had the Saints been more responsible with their salary cap.
  
  Jason Fitzgerald is an NFL salary expert and contributor for Sporting News. Read more of his writing at OverTheCap.com and follow him on Twitter: @Jason_OTC.