2023 Draft - 50% Hit Rate

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CGI_Ram

CGI_Ram

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If a solid draft would be a 50% hit rate… let’s see your split.

Put half hit, half miss.

Pretty hard at this point.

2-36 S. AVILA, G
3-77 B. YOUNG, DT
3-89 K. TURNER, DT
4-128 S. BENNETT, QB
5-161 N. HAMPTON, EDGE
5-174 W. MCCLENDON, OT
5-175 D. ALLEN, TE
5-177 P. NACUA, WR
6-182 T. HOD-TOMLINSON, CB
6-189 O. MATHIS, EDGE
7-215 Z. EVANS, RB
7-223 E. EVANS, P
7-234 J. TAYLOR II, S
7-259 D. JOHNSON, EDGE
 
It’s 50/50…

HIT
2-36 S. AVILA, G
3-77 B. YOUNG, DT
4-128 S. BENNETT, QB
5-177 P. NACUA, WR
6-182 T. HOD-TOMLINSON, CB
7-223 E. EVANS, P
7-234 J. TAYLOR II, S

MISS? This is hard, because I think some make it.
3-89 K. TURNER, DT
5-161 N. HAMPTON, EDGE
5-174 W. MCCLENDON, OT
5-175 D. ALLEN, TE
6-189 O. MATHIS, EDGE
7-215 Z. EVANS, RB
7-259 D. JOHNSON, EDGE
 
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dang said:
What is considered a hit?

-Making the 53 man roster in 2023?
-Starter/regular rotational player in 2023?
- Starter/regular rotational player throughout their rookie contract?
Click to expand...
A player who contributes for the entireity of their rookie contract? Starter, rotational player, special team demon..... I can't see calling a 6th round draft pick who plays stellar special teams a miss. Example? Nick Scott.....played ST and then was a starter his final 2 years.

I'll only list who I think will be hits.

Avila
Young
Turner
Hampton
Davis
Hodges-Tomlimson
Zach Evans

If Bennett is a viable backup, McClendon, Nacua and the punter stick even better.
 
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dang said:
What is considered a hit?

-Making the 53 man roster in 2023?
-Starter/regular rotational player in 2023?
- Starter/regular rotational player throughout their rookie contract?
Click to expand...
That's my question. The only really good player drafted in the mcsnead era was kupp.
 
To me, a successful draft is how many make meaningful contributions and fulfill there 4 year obligation with the team. Whether it be a starter, rotational player, special teams, backup, etc.

2-36 S. AVILA, G Hit (Solid starter)
3-77 B. YOUNG, DT Hit (Starter)
3-89 K. TURNER, DT Hit (Rotational eventually a starter)
4-128 S. BENNETT, QB Hit (As a serviceable backup)
5-161 N. HAMPTON, EDGE
5-174 W. MCCLENDON, OT
5-175 D. ALLEN, TE
5-177 P. NACUA, WR Hit (Rotational)
6-182 T. HOD-TOMLINSON, CB
6-189 O. MATHIS, EDGE
7-215 Z. EVANS, RB Hit (Rotational eventually a starter)
7-223 E. EVANS, P Hit (Punter for the next 4 years)
7-234 J. TAYLOR II, S
7-259 D. JOHNSON, EDGE

I got 7 players who should be making meaningful contributions at some point in their 4 year contract. Some may get a second contract and spend 7-10 years as a Ram. If that turns out to be the case it should be considered a good draft.

I'm thinking Avila, Young and E. Evans as starters in their first year. With Turner, Z. Evans being rotational guys who might see plenty of time on the field depending on injuries. Bennett may or may not see the field in 2023 but if he does I feel like we'll see better play out of the backup QB position than previous years.
 
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dang said:
What is considered a hit?

-Making the 53 man roster in 2023?
Click to expand...

Snoop Dogg Reaction GIF
 
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This roster is too depleted and will carry way more than 7 of those draftees on the 53.

The only long shots I see are the day 3 Edge guys, Mathis and Johnson.

That leaves 12.
You have to have a punter and a backup QB.
Avila is a day 1 starter and Young is gonna get his shot be the guy on the Edge. That’s 4 easy ones right there. ZEvans is gonna be in that RB room, H-T in the secondary, and Nacua could be WR 3 or WR4 by the end of camp. He’s gonna be a McVay guy. That’s 7.

I don’t see the Rams cutting or trying to stash The Conductor (Turner) on the PS. He will see his share of plays in rotation. The Rams simply have to have 3 TEs. Who will replace Higbee next year? What if he gets hurt? Are the Rams really gonna count on a guy who washed out of Miami? They need insurance. Allen would have to have very bad camp to get cut. He’s at least gonna get reps on STs.
So now we’re at 9.

If Noteboom isn’t good to go by the end of camp, McClendon probably makes it. He will at least have a shot. Now we’re possibly at 10 and Hampton (Edge) and Taylor (S) haven’t been discussed. The Edge rusher jobs might be filled, but there’s room for another Safety.

I think 10-11 draft picks could make the 53, but no less than 9.
 
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I'll go with Avila as a future Pro Bowl level player. The guy is just wired the right way. He's talented. And he has lots of film of him stoning rushers. I think he's real important for this draft too. Going into this one I felt like we needed to find a first round type talent, by that I mean a real difference maker. A guy who can be a leader on this line by actions as well as words.

Young I expect will develop into at least a solid starter. He has the talent. His film at Tennessee was quite good. Seems like a grounded dude as well. If he's more than that great.

Tomlinson I expect to also be at least a solid starter. He was knocked due to his height but watch his film. This guy is gonna help us. How good can he be? Who knows, we'll see.

So for me it's three guys who I think are not necessarily sure things but damn close. And all have good upside with Avila heading that list. If one of the three is a stud we're in business.

Couple projects I really like in this draft are both on offense. Nacua's film is superb I just don't list him because he's struggled to stay healthy. But I love the addition. Also the TE has grown on me. Allen's gonna need some time but he really is a nice big target with some smoothness to him. Thing is the churn on that offensive side is real. There's a lot of talent compared to that defensive side and it's gonna be tough for those two to be felt year one. Probably won't feel either until at least year two, maybe three.
 
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HIT

2-36 S. AVILA, G
3-89 K. TURNER, DT
4-128 S. BENNETT, QB
5-177 P. NACUA, WR
6-182 T. HOD-TOMLINSON, CB
7-223 E. EVANS, P
7-259 D. JOHNSON, EDGE

MISS

77 B Young
161 Hampton
174 McClendon
175 D Allen
189 Mathis
234 J Taylor
215 Z Evans

These are my choices if I am forced to go 50/50
 
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50% hit rate is a bit high if you look back at draft averages but even if 30-40% hit the volume of picks should really help this year. Everyones picking the first 4 picks to all hit but there’s almost no chance they all do. I like Avila and Turner to be potentially the 2 best from this class.
 
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Puka will be a starter by November if not before.
Young will be a good starting edge
Turner is AD's replacement when he retires and I see him as a rotational player at 3T
Hampton is good enough to start at edge but if Hoecht plays like I think he will he will stay at DE and Hampton is perfect for the SAM role.
Avila is an obvious day one starter and has all pro talent
Evans will be the Rams punter for a long time
Zach Evans has first round talent. If they don't extend Akers he will be the starter next year.
Allen has the talent to take over as TE1 next year and should have a solid year as a rotational backup
Long will push Allen but I think he ends up TE2
Mathis is probably a rotational WIL or DE and bumps Thomas off the roster
Bennett solves the QB2 problem for the next couple of years but he will chafe if they draft a QB1 of the future and will ask to be traded after 2024
Taylor is a very good middle zone safety and IMO could push Fuller for snaps if not take his roster spot. He's a bit raw but give him a year or two and he's going to be a very good starter at safety.
McClendon is a work in progress and will take a year maybe two before they know what they have in him
Tomlinson will be a starting CB either this year or next year because I think Witherspoon is a one year bridge player and at least a good rotational DB
Johnson is PS material at best
I think UDFAs Maginn and McAllister have a good chance to make the roster or at the very least PS. I think Anchrum doesn't make the roster this year.
 
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KA210927 said:
50% hit rate is a bit high if you look back at draft averages but even if 30-40% hit the volume of picks should really help this year. Everyones picking the first 4 picks to all hit but there’s almost no chance they all do. I like Avila and Turner to be potentially the 2 best from this class.
Click to expand...
Draft averages are not 14 players deep, they're around 7 give or take. Hence why we are giving ours a higher success rate.
 
CGI_Ram said:
It’s 50/50…

HIT
2-36 S. AVILA, G
3-77 B. YOUNG, DT
4-128 S. BENNETT, QB
5-177 P. NACUA, WR
6-182 T. HOD-TOMLINSON, CB
7-223 E. EVANS, P
7-234 J. TAYLOR II, S

MISS? This is hard, because I think some make it.
3-89 K. TURNER, DT
5-161 N. HAMPTON, EDGE
5-174 W. MCCLENDON, OT
5-175 D. ALLEN, TE
6-189 O. MATHIS, EDGE
7-215 Z. EVANS, RB
7-259 D. JOHNSON, EDGE
Click to expand...
Agreeable
 
The problem is the definition of "hit rate" If you are looking for starters, then the hit rate might be very high. But the Rams need stars to make it back to the super bowl. Guys like Von Miller and OBJ and Big Whit and Eric Weddle need to be replaced, and not just by average players. Average players mean 7-9 seasons. We need some guys to blossom into superstars in order to make it back to the super bowl. I think Avila has a good chance of becoming great. Also Young. But the Rams need to find more stars in this year and last years' drafts.
 
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