Analytics expert Cynthia Frelund took data from the past 10 NFL campaigns to create historical references for personnel, scheme and matchups, identifying factors that are proven to lead to wins (or losses). She vetted the correlations with a bunch of real football people (e.g., coaches) and had her math checked out by real math people (e.g., PhDs) to make sure the model reflected reality as much as possible. Then she compared this season's personnel, schemes and matchups -- with the vetted mathematical weightings -- and simulated the season more than a million times, producing a ceiling, floor and projected win total for all 32 teams. The ceiling-to-floor range is something to home in on -- a big discrepancy means the team is projected to play in more close games.
Without further ado, here are the projected win totals for NFC teams in the 2020 campaign, ordered from most to least wins, with playoff berths noted. Check back Tuesday for the AFC rundown.
I like Cynthia's work. She takes it very seriously and my brief look at this article looks like she did what she attempted to do.