Total defense (yards v points)

[jrry32]

It's just that scoring defense involves more factors than just the defense by itself - so for the sake of comparing defenses to one another - total defense is the more fair measure.

So does yards per game. You're not removing those variables. So the claim that it's a more fair measure doesn't hold water. For the sake of comparing defenses, the best way to compare them is compare their proficiency at doing the one thing that every defense aims to do...stop the other side from scoring.

Which is why DPPG Allowed and Points Per Drive Allowed are the two best measures of a top defense.

 

[Ellard80]

Yeah the rams defense was 13th in pots and 23rd in yardage...

I felt like the Rams defense was middle of the pack... those rankings pretty much back that up

If you look at the Rams games where they gave up the fewest points... mostly in those games were their lowest yardage totals also on defense...

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/ram/2015.htm

 

[bwdenverram]

yards allowed commonly correlate with points allowed.... it's so bizarre how some people just are refusing to see this lol

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/position/defense

The most interesting thing about that is if you click on pts/game we were 13th. Not top 10 as Jrry suggested and what started all this to begin with.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/sort/totalPointsPerGame/position/defense

I think the bottom line is it's all related. If we give up less yards our offense has the ball more. If we have the ball more we likely give up even less points because our TOP goes up.

So really both stats are connected and we can improve upon both. But when people say they don't care about how many yards we give up as long as it's not points is odd to me. Why be proud of just a bend but not break mentality.
How about we beat the crap out of teams like Seattle's 291 YPG AND 17 PPG against.
There's no reason the talent on this defense should settle for bend and not break. That's a losing mentality.
As Wauffle said on hard knocks- Go knock people the F out!

 

[jrry32]

The most interesting thing about that is if you click on pts/game we were 13th. Not top 10 as Jrry suggested and what started all this to begin with.

That's because you're not using a stat that measures defensive points per game given up. That stat counts pick sixes, kick return TDs, punt return TDs, fumble recovery TDs, etc. None of those TDs come against the defense. This stat is points per game allowed by the defense:
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-offensive-points-per-game

And look where the Rams are...in the top 10. Just as I said.

You can also use this stat...Points Per Drive Allowed:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsdef2015

The Rams are 8th in that.

So the question becomes...what do you value more...keeping points off the board or keeping yards off the box-score? I know what I value.

There's no reason the talent on this defense should settle for bend and not break. That's a losing mentality.

No, it's a defensive philosophy. A defensive philosophy that allowed our defense to rank #9 in Defensive Points Per Game Allowed in 2015 and #5 in Defensive Points Per Game Allowed in 2014. If you want to look for a losing mentality, go look at the terrible offenses we had during those years.

In fact, Seattle's defensive philosophy, especially under Gus Bradley, has been very bend but don't breakish.

 

[bwdenverram]

That's because you're not using a stat that measures defensive points per game given up. That stat counts pick sixes, kick return TDs, punt return TDs, fumble recovery TDs, etc. None of those TDs come against the defense. This stat is points per game allowed by the defense:
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-offensive-points-per-game

And look where the Rams are...in the top 10. Just as I said.

You can also use this stat...Points Per Drive Allowed:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsdef2015

The Rams are 8th in that.

So the question becomes...what do you value more...keeping points off the board or keeping yards off the box-score? I know what I value.



No, it's a defensive philosophy. A defensive philosophy that allowed our defense to rank #9 in Defensive Points Per Game Allowed in 2015 and #5 in Defensive Points Per Game Allowed in 2014. If you want to look for a losing mentality, go look at the terrible offenses we had during those years.

In fact, Seattle's defensive philosophy, especially under Gus Bradley, has been very bend but don't breakish.

I think at the end of the day we can just agree to somewhat disagree. Of course nobody can really argue that the most important number is finally points on the board. And as long as we have 1 more then the opponent it doesn't matter how many we give up. But I completely disagree that OUR defense philosophy is to bend but not break. And I sure don't think Seattle goes that route either. I mean 297 YPG is pretty damn impressive. And after listening to GW and Wauffle on hard knocks there is nothing that would lead me to believe they preach "hey guys, it's ok if they get 400 yards just keep them out of the end zone" . Now, that being said of course if they give up a 90 yard drive and hold them to 3 points that's a good thing. But in no way do I think that's the thought process or philosophy of the defensive staff. They want sacks and turnovers and that is negative plays, not positive yards. So like I said they it all goes hand in hand. And you know what, if this team lowers it's DYPG and points allowed per game it WILL be a top 10 defense all around and this becomes a non discussion.
I know one thing that we both agree on- We love this team and want it to succeed on both sides of the ball. And some time in the near future we'll be in the playoffs and we can both have a beer and laugh about this.

 

[dieterbrock]

Late to the party here but when they replace the scoreboard with yards given up vs points scored against, I'll change my tune.
Until then I'll stick with the best D are the ones who give up the fewest points.
I honestly don't know how this is arguable

 

[UKram]

I,m a points allowed guy after all , you score more than the other team youll win the game

BUT

Stats are nice and all and can tell you a lot at a glance but in the grand scheme of thing they essentially mean nothing
ive seen football (soccer) games where teams have had 80% possession of the football 25 shots at goal 19 on target 15 corners and still lose

i know its not likely to happen but lets pretend we live in over simplification world for a minute

team A has 4 possessions but they all start on their opponents 10 yard line but score 4 tds and 4 pats they have 40 yards of total offense but win the game ...is anyone gopnna scream and shout that team B has an amazing Defense because they "held" team A to 40 yards total offense

points allowed for me every day of the week (especially on a sunday )

 

[12intheBox]

Late to the party here but when they replace the scoreboard with yards given up vs points scored against, I'll change my tune.
Until then I'll stick with the best D are the ones who give up the fewest points.
I honestly don't know how this is arguable

That's not the question being asked.

The question is - what is the best metric upon which to compare defenses to one another?

And @jrry32 has a good point - there are flaws in most any metric you use because defenses don't operate in a vacuum. Even if you took philosophy out of it - how the offense and the special teams perform has an impact on how many points a team gives up in a game. And - I would argue to a lesser extent but still true - how many yards they give up in a game.

Its not a question of which would you rather have - thats easy for all of us.

 

[dieterbrock]

That's not the question being asked.

The question is - what is the best metric upon which to compare defenses to one another?

And @jrry32 has a good point - there are flaws in most any metric you use because defenses don't operate in a vacuum. Even if you took philosophy out of it - how the offense and the special teams perform has an impact on how many points a team gives up in a game. And - I would argue to a lesser extent but still true - how many yards they give up in a game.

Its not a question of which would you rather have - thats easy for all of us.

The answer is the same
Points scored against
And again, I don't see how its arguable
Statistical metrics give us something to talk about, but that's all they do.
Historically speaking, when we look back at how well offense or defense played we look at points given up or points scored.

 

[12intheBox]

The answer is the same
Points scored against
And again, I don't see how its arguable
Statistical metrics give us something to talk about, but that's all they do.
Historically speaking, when we look back at how well offense or defense played we look at points given up or points scored.

Here is how I think it is arguable. A team who has an offense that turns the ball over left and right is going to have more points scored against them. A team with crappy special teams is going to have more points scored against them. Neither one of those things are in the control of the defense.

To be fair - a team with a crappy offense is likely going to give up more yards against compared to a team with an offense that hogs the ball - just based on opportunity alone.

 

[dieterbrock]

Here is how I think it is arguable. A team who has an offense that turns the ball over left and right is going to have more points scored against them. A team with crappy special teams is going to have more points scored against them. Neither one of those things are in the control of the defense.

To be fair - a team with a crappy offense is likely going to give up more yards against compared to a team with an offense that hogs the ball - just based on opportunity alone.

Which is why you could argue that the Rams are better than #8 defense because that's exactly what their offense has done. But for me, #8 points scored against works for me, they're still in the conversation
This is exactly why I don't buy the "total defense" stat because it should say the Rams are better but from what I read its the opposite.
Number 1 goal for a D is to keep the other team from scoring, that works for me

 

[Bruce2980]

Great topic....
If the offenses strategy is points..and we all know that converting on 3rd downs often leads to points....why wouldn't a defense want to stop teams on 3rd down, which should lead to less yards, and less points...

Total yards allowed is the true defensive stat in determining a dominant defense...Bend but don't break will lead to a defense on the field too much...

Giving up points is the key factor if we are forced to choose only one stat for the best defense. That is blatantly obvious (to me) as the one with the most points wins, not the most yards. Yards given up can lead to points, obviously, but remember, you can also lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink. There are many variables that should be accounted for when looking for the best overall defense, one stat will not work in one of the most complicated and strategic games ever invented. If an offense goes three and out every possession it will never matter how good a defense is, they will lose every game unless the defense scores more points than their opposing offense in every game. And there again, yards don't directly account for points. If a team gets guaranteed points for every 100 yards or so, then yards will be the direct factor, until then, yards given up is nothing more than an indirect measure of a defense. As has been pointed out by others here, Offense, Special Teams, turnovers and many other factors play into having a great defense. If the opposing team is down by 28 points at halftime, the job of the defense becomes much easier, and vice versa. Too much to account for by focusing on one point, one can miss the forest if using a microscope on one tree. I love the stats and research in this thread, great discussion, thanks for the education on both sides of this argument. In conclusion, it doesn't matter how great a defense is IMHO if the team doesn't win, and winning by whatever measure (offense, defense, special teams, turnovers etc.), other than those employed by Billocheat and the Cheatriots, is what matters most.

 

[Bruce2980]

I woul

Yeah the rams defense was 13th in pots and 23rd in yardage...

I felt like the Rams defense was middle of the pack... those rankings pretty much back that up

If you look at the Rams games where they gave up the fewest points... mostly in those games were their lowest yardage totals also on defense...

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/ram/2015.htm

I would argue that if the Rams had an offense that was middle of the pack, instead of bottom of the barrel, then the Rams Defense would have easily made the top 10, if not top 5, and if they would have had the offense they had in 99' then they would have ranked closer to #1.

 

[Ellard80]

I think most of us agree that you have a better chance of winning if your opponent scores less....

But there just is a very over simplification of defense going on here. As many people have pointed out there are a lot of other factors.

I've simply stated many times that yards given up correlate with points given up... I posted the rankings and Rams game box scores to show this...

So basically its a silly argument.. because a higher percentage of the time teams that give up the fewest yards are also going to give up the fewest points...

I also agree that yards/pts per drive is another great stat considering how bad certain teams offenses are.

 

[LACHAMP46]

Giving up points is the key factor if we are forced to choose only one stat for the best defense.

Okay....that's the bare essential stat....less points allowed...But how can a defense get there? How can you attempt to control this stat? It's easy to say, " give up 0 points and we win"....There are several ways to control points allowed...The easiest way...which is what statistical analysis tries to determine....is the least amount of time an offense is on the field, usually results in least points....and...least YARDS....Another way, which all should agree is very difficult is turnovers...Turnovers are very arbitrary from year to year....I have a betting thing I use, if a team used turnovers to win in one year, I always assume they won't be as lucky the next. It worked wonders for Peanut Tillman & the Bears...You can't count on turnovers. You can count on solid defense, disciplined defense, sure tackling defense, mistake free defense.

I've simply stated many times that yards given up correlate with points given up... I posted the rankings and Rams game box scores to show this...

So basically its a silly argument.. because a higher percentage of the time teams that give up the fewest yards are also going to give up the fewest points...

Exactly....You can't put it any plainer/simpler....it's in the books....

People wanna argue to argue & debate to sound right...if least yards wasn't important, stat guys wouldn't use it as a barometer for top defenses...Anyone watching the game...on 3rd down...the money down...should see this...the more chances one has to score, the more likely one is to score...We had the worst 3rd down offense....we couldn't score...We had a shaky defense, many drives were extended...many more plays...yet we still weren't terrible in D....If we stop teams on 3rd down...less yards...and we'll give up less points...

 

[FrantikRam]

I would rather have the defense that allows less points and more yards than the opposite.

BUT - yards per play is a better indicator than yards per game, and I do believe that yards per play illustrates how often your defense "wins" a play.

For me, I don't like the Rams defensive strategy. I don't think it worked all that great last year despite being top 10 in points allowed per game. It relies too much on forcing turnovers, which can be kind of random.

Example is these two games from last year: Browns (W) and Cardinals (W)

In these games, we forced 4 and 3 turnovers, respectively. We mostly allowed the offenses to do whatever they want and if not for those turnovers, the Browns game is very close and that Cardinals game is an L. We forced them, so our strategy worked, but the 2nd game against the Cardinals illustrated what happens when that doesn't work.

 

[dieterbrock]

People wanna argue to argue & debate to sound right...if least yards wasn't important, stat guys wouldn't use it as a barometer for top defenses...Anyone watching the game...on 3rd down...the money down...should see this...the more chances one has to score, the more likely one is to score...We had the worst 3rd down offense....we couldn't score...We had a shaky defense, many drives were extended...many more plays...yet we still weren't terrible in D....If we stop teams on 3rd down...less yards...and we'll give up less points...

When teams have the lead, they allow opposition to move at will in the middle of the field, let them eat up the yardage, and clock. We've seen countless QB pad their stats in games when the score was out of reach, the dogs were called off and the stats skewed
Yardage between the 20's is always the easiest to get, inside the 20's the hardest, because that's where the money is made

 

[LACHAMP46]

When teams have the lead, they allow opposition to move at will in the middle of the field, let them eat up the yardage, and clock. We've seen countless QB pad their stats in games when the score was out of reach, the dogs were called off and the stats skewed
Yardage between the 20's is always the easiest to get, inside the 20's the hardest, because that's where the money is made

Ahhh...When they have the lead...You sound like an advocate of the "prevent defense"....not you db?!?

Google "does time of possession matter in the NFL" and you will see how wrong you are.

I had to search the game thread....I found some stuff...I'll add it here. TOP...yet every coach will tell you, they want to possess the ball...And you state, google does TOP matter? Of course it does...the more you have the ball, the more chances you have to score...see above...when in the lead...In this instance you want them to keep the ball...and play a safe "prevent" defense. I say...defenses get PAID to get off the field..The less the offense possess the ball, the better chance to prevent scoring.....simple

Sorry to interrupt the argument about the definition of defense but if we don't stop them we aren't going to see any more of Goff. He has about ten snaps and that is the true shame of this game.

You make a key point...if they are possessing the ball, continuing drives...controling the ball, clock, probably racking up YARDS, you decrease your offense from possessing the ball...You decrease your odds of scoring...which leads to

As for the season I hope to god we are a top 5 scoring defense.

To become a top 5 scoring defense, you have to get teams off the field...you have to stop drives...better sooner than later...less yards...more 3 and outs...any defensive coach that doesn't prioritze this, isn't worth his salt...

Okay. Let's go. Make your argument for yards per game ("total defense") being a better measure of a defense's ability than points allowed. I'll wait.

Points are points...you can score with a 30 yard drive...or an 80 yard drive...you can score without the ball via turnover...The one way to control the amount of the opponents scores, is to possess the ball. Stop drives...as soon as possible...Points are the end result of good defense..Not the cause of good defense. The means to the end, is controlling the opponent's yards...It's why many offensive players measures are based on YARDS...QB's, RB's, WR's...Yards based. Football has always been a game of field position...It is a simulation of war...probably was based on taking territory. Yards control the game...If you can limit yards, you can usually limit points.
Many have said...gain all the yards you like, as long as I can stop you from scoring...I say, keep allowing 400 yards a game, and luck into only allowing 10 points...Eventually, the sieve of a defense will prove to be inadequate..Allowing a bunch of yards with no points is usually a luck thing...just like, if you don't allow a bunch of yards but give up points, just a bad luck thing. Pretty soon, luck runs out...And you have a team that can't stop anyone, or a team that finally looks like the 85 Bears....
Points allowed is the end product, how do you get there? Skill by limiting yards & opportunities to score, or sheer luck hoping for the turnover or the opponents ineptitude? You choose....

 

[dieterbrock]

Ahhh...When they have the lead...You sound like an advocate of the "prevent defense"....not you db?!?

Absolutely not, and even moreso hate the prevent offense that we employ
But if I had to hang my hat on what statistic defines good defense, I go with points allowed every time

 

[bwdenverram]

Absolutely not, and even moreso hate the prevent offense that we employ
But if I had to hang my hat on what statistic defines good defense, I go with points allowed every time

So answer this then: Two teams, one gives up 375 yards per game, the other gives up 310 yards per game.
Which one do you think is going to give up the fewer amount of points 9 times out of 10?

Pretty easy answer and why yards allowed is important. They generally go hand in hand.
Maybe we were #8 in scoring defense for one year but if you ask your defense to give up that many yards every game at some point history would probably say you won't be able to hold forever.

Moral of the story is get off the damn field sooner then later.