Total defense (yards v points)

[12intheBox]

Several of us hijacked the game thread last night in a discussion about the best way to measure a defense - points allowed or yards allowed. @jrry32, @NateDawg122 - if you guys still want to talk it over - lets do it here.

Personally, I think yards allowed is a better way to rate defenses. I get that the only statistic that matters is the final score - but the score is a factor of all 3 phases of the game, offense, defense, and special teams.

By way of illustration - suppose an offense turns the ball over on their own 20 yard line. The defense comes in and doesn't allow a single yard or even sacks them and moves them back 8 or 9 yards. The other team kicks a field goal - 3 points against that defense who performed perfectly. Field position is incredibly important in scoring - its why we have so much emphasis on special teams - its not just the TD returns where they are a factor.

To take this into real life - who had the best defense in the league last year? Any real debate it was the Broncos? They led in total defense (yards per game) but were 4th in points against per game.

This is not to say that points against is irrelevant - just that they aren't solely placed on the defense. A defense has complete control over how many yards they give up - not so with points.

Nate - you asked which stat a DC would prefer - and I see your point - but its kind of liking saying I would rather be lucky than good. Ask a DC whether they would rather have the #1 defense in the league and not make the playoffs or win a superbowl ring with the worst defense the league has ever seen and which answer will you get?

 

[ViennaMax]

I'm going with points allowed - at the and of the day its all that matters.
more agressive D (like ours) might give up more big plays and yards (bringing the house etc) but come up with turnovers or game changing plays more often..

 

[bomebadeeda]

I understand what you are trying to conclude........ but the "bend but don't break" method is a tried and true defensive strategy. You are making a team, put together "X" amount of plays, to be able to score. The stats look good.... (and yes, it could lead to eventually wearing down a defense....) .but the only true stat is wins and losses. And hat stat is about points. Foles looked good dinking and dunking last night but in the bigger scheme of things didn't put the game away. So his yards, were in essense....meaningless............

 

[SierraRam]

Read the entire thread last night. My advice brothers:

 

[Legatron4]

The Seahawks have let up the least amount of points on defense since 2012. They've gone to 2 Super Bowls and made the playoffs every year. I don't care if our defense gives up 400 ypg. As long as we're stout in the RZ and prevent TDs.

 

[MTRamsFan]

This may be the philosophy early in the season with Ogletree still learning, plus developing consistency in the secondary. We might bend but have to find ways to get the defense off the field so they aren't worn out late in the game. Also, we can't continue allowing long drives resulting in touchdowns this year. Last year there were too many times the defense was worn down early in the game because of this plus having an inconsistent offense. However, the offense is going to be much better this year allowing the defense to rest. I honestly think once Williams can actually start scheming against a team, the defense will settle in. At the end of the day, we need to give up less points and score more. Seems like a very simple formula.

 

[Mojo Ram]

Red zone scoring % against. That is how(realistically) you win on defense vs the modern, QB-driven elite offense. Look at the game in Arizona last year.
Turnovers and points scored off turnovers is always huge too, obviously.
The reason our D looked gassed last year was because the offense couldn't stay on the field with that NFL worst 26% 3rd down conversion rate. If our D gets more 3 and outs does that help the offense last year? Not a whole lot IMO.
It's a debatable discussion.

I'm a Net team turnover points guy. In terms of being an opportunistic football team that minimizes your own mistakes. That's my blueprint.

 

[12intheBox]

If I got to choose between being ranked first in total defense or points against, I'd choose points against. The point is, total defense is a more fair way to compare defenses.

This has nothing to do with defensive philosophy:

 

[jrry32]

If I got to choose between being ranked first in total defense or points against, I'd choose points against. The point is, total defense is a more fair way to compare defenses.

This has nothing to do with defensive philosophy:

This has everything to do with defensive philosophy. Every defense's philosophy is to give up as few points as they can. Not every defense's philosophy is to give up as few yards as they can. That is why it is not only more fair but better to rank defenses by the points they allowed.

The Rams, for example, trade yardage for negative plays. You are putting our defense at a disadvantage from the outset by using yards per game. We will allow teams to throw a bunch of short passes and move down the field methodically. Why? Because our defense is so talented that the other team will likely make a drive killing mistake at some point. They'll give up a TFL or a sack or throw a pick or fumble or their QB will get pressured and be forced to throw the ball away. Eventually, this will stick them in 3rd and long or give us back the ball.

What this does not do is keep teams from moving the ball? Why? Because doing that carries far more risk that they'll burn us. Our strategy is to keep points off the board by forcing teams to put together TD drives of 10+ plays where they have to be perfect. And that's difficult to do.

Guess what? That strategy worked. We were top 10 in defensive points per game allowed and points per drive allowed. And that's the only stat that really matters in the outcome of a game, points allowed. That's why it's fair to everyone to use it as a comparison point. Every defense's goal is to not give up points.

 

[Mojo Ram]

2015 NFL Team Opponent Red Zone Scoring Percentage (TD only)

1. NYJ 35%
2. Rams 41.3%
3. Seattle 44.1%
4. Cincinnati 45.2%
5. Minnesota 46.5%

 

[12intheBox]

This has everything to do with defensive philosophy. Every defense's philosophy is to give up as few points as they can. Not every defense's philosophy is to give up as few yards as they can. That is why it is not only more fair but better to rank defenses by the points they allowed.

The Rams, for example, trade yardage for negative plays. You are putting our defense at a disadvantage from the outset by using yards per game. We will allow teams to throw a bunch of short passes and move down the field methodically. Why? Because our defense is so talented that the other team will likely make a drive killing mistake at some point. They'll give up a TFL or a sack or throw a pick or fumble or their QB will get pressured and be forced to throw the ball away. Eventually, this will stick them in 3rd and long or give us back the ball.

What this does not do is keep teams from moving the ball? Why? Because doing that carries far more risk that they'll burn us. Our strategy is to keep points off the board by forcing teams to put together TD drives of 10+ plays where they have to be perfect. And that's difficult to do.

Guess what? That strategy worked. We were top 10 in defensive points per game allowed and points per drive allowed. And that's the only stat that really matters in the outcome of a game, points allowed. That's why it's fair to everyone to use it as a comparison point. Every defense's goal is to not give up points.

Team A has to defend a 60 yards field and team B has to defend an 80 yard field. Still fair?

And lets take your suggestion at face value - that the Rams do trade yardage for negative plays. Did it work? We went 7-9 last year. Isn't W-L the ultimate stat? Because the #1 D in total defense is wearing Superbowl rings and not because of their offense.

 

[12intheBox]

2015 NFL Team Opponent Red Zone Scoring Percentage (TD only)

1. NYJ 35%
2. Rams 41.3%
3. Seattle 44.1%
4. Cincinnati 45.2%
5. Minnesota 46.5%

Much better - and more useful - statistic. It compares apples to apples.

 

[tempests]

They pretty much go hand in hand IMO. Yards are conducive to points. Last year 8 of the top ten teams in fewest yards allowed were also top ten in fewest points allowed.

Rams were a little out of whack in that regard in 2015, there are a few teams like that every year. But in their first three years under Fisher their yardage and points allowed rankings were pretty similar.

 

[jrry32]

They pretty much go hand in hand IMO. Yards are conducive to points. Last year 8 of the top ten teams in fewest yards allowed were also top ten in fewest points allowed.

Rams were a little out of whack in that regard in 2015, there are a few teams like that every year. But in their first three years under Fisher their yardage and points allowed rankings were pretty similar.

Rams rankings under Gregg Williams:
2015
Yards Per Game Allowed - 23rd
Yards Per Drive Allowed - 11th
Defensive Points Per Game Allowed - 9th
Points Per Drive Allowed - 8th

2014
Yards Per Game Allowed - 17th
Yards Per Drive Allowed - 21st
Defensive Points Per Game Allowed - 5th
Points Per Drive Allowed - 7th

They don't go hand-in-hand with the Rams defensive strategy.

 

[jrry32]

Team A has to defend a 60 yards field and team B has to defend an 80 yard field. Still fair?

And lets take your suggestion at face value - that the Rams do trade yardage for negative plays. Did it work? We went 7-9 last year. Isn't W-L the ultimate stat? Because the #1 D in total defense is wearing Superbowl rings and not because of their offense.

Yes, it's fair. Those things tend to even out over 16 games and 180-200 drives.

This is a nonsensical argument. W-L is the ultimate stat for a TEAM. But a defense is only part of the team. The offense that ranked 31st in points per drive is the culprit for the below average record. So yes, the Rams' defensive strategy worked. The Rams' offensive strategy did not work.

 

[Legatron4]

Team A has to defend a 60 yards field and team B has to defend an 80 yard field. Still fair?

And lets take your suggestion at face value - that the Rams do trade yardage for negative plays. Did it work? We went 7-9 last year. Isn't W-L the ultimate stat? Because the #1 D in total defense is wearing Superbowl rings and not because of their offense.

I'm gunna make an argument against the "vaunted" Broncos defense. It's pretty mind boggling how mediocre that team was last year.

Throughout the last 20 years, NFL games have been decided by 7 or less points 45% of the time. Last season, 131 out of 256 games were decided by 7 points or less(51%,most in NFL history). For Denver, 12 out of 16(75%) games were decided by 7 points or less. They won ELEVEN OUT OF TWELVE of those games. That is a historical number most likely to never be repeated again. Go back to every Super Bowl winning team and they will all have more then one victory decided by 7 points or less.

The point of this post is to not compare them to Denver, since they are not the rule, but the exception. They also got a lot of help in the playoffs and would have lost to a healthy Steelers team in the first round. Yards don't mean as much to winning as RZ efficiency on both offense and defense.

 

[12intheBox]

Points against is just not purely a defensive statistic. The offensive philosophy plays a role. A more conservative offense leads to fewer turnovers which leads to fewer easier points for the other team. Poor special teams play leads to more points against. These are the reasons that total defense uses yards against.

When an analyst, a coach, or a coordinator talk about being a top 5 defense - this is the metric they are using and for this reason.

I'll grant you that it isn't the most important statistic (as if there is one) - and I'll also admit that some teams may have philosophies that cut against using yards as a measure of effectiveness. Some teams value turnovers and take more chances - willing to give up big plays in order to make big plays. Some offenses are willing to turn the ball over in order to score more (GSOT comes to mind).

Starting field position doesn't just even itself out over time. It is part of that same discussion of overall team philosophy, offensive and special teams effectiveness.

Heck, I'm not even sure that a pick 6 or special teams TD doesn't count against a defense in the points allowed tally. Does it?

 

[tempests]

Rams rankings under Gregg Williams:
2015
Yards Per Game Allowed - 23rd
Yards Per Drive Allowed - 11th
Defensive Points Per Game Allowed - 9th
Points Per Drive Allowed - 8th

2014
Yards Per Game Allowed - 17th
Yards Per Drive Allowed - 21st
Defensive Points Per Game Allowed - 5th
Points Per Drive Allowed - 7th

They don't go hand-in-hand with the Rams defensive strategy.

Rams D stiffens in the red zone, Mojo already posted. But that's 20 yards of a 100 yard field.

It's not really their strategy to rank in the bottom half of the league in yards allowed. That's influenced by other factors ex. broken plays.

 

[jrry32]

Rams D stiffens in the red zone, Mojo already posted. But that's 20 yards of a 100 yard field.

It's not really their strategy to rank in the bottom half of the league in yards allowed. That's influenced by other factors ex. broken plays.

Those are the most important 20 yards of a 100 yard field. Because scoring wins games, not yards.

Their strategy isn't to rank in the bottom half of the league. Their strategy is to do exactly what I said it was. You can see that by coverages they use.(I know I remember plenty of outrage over the large cushions)

Points against is just not purely a defensive statistic. The offensive philosophy plays a role. A more conservative offense leads to fewer turnovers which leads to fewer easier points for the other team. Poor special teams play leads to more points against. These are the reasons that total defense uses yards against.

I guess our offensive philosophy of not converting first downs and moving the ball down the field only makes our defense's accomplishments that much more impressive.

Those aren't good reasons to use yards per game allowed. Those same things would also affect yards per game allowed. In fact, poor special teams play leading to more points against benefits you in terms of yards per game allowed. Because you give up less yardage despite them scoring a TD. Which is obviously a terrible outcome. But your yardage per game is less harmed than your points per game.

Yards per game allowed is not the right measure for defensive effectiveness. If you asked me to pick one measure, I'd choose points per drive allowed. That is the best measure.

When an analyst, a coach, or a coordinator talk about being a top 5 defense - this is the metric they are using and for this reason.

Drop coach or coordinator. Because that's blatantly untrue. If you asked any coach or coordinator whether they'd prefer a defense that gave up less points or a defense that gave up less yards, you know what the answer would be.

I'll grant you that it isn't the most important statistic (as if there is one) - and I'll also admit that some teams may have philosophies that cut against using yards as a measure of effectiveness. Some teams value turnovers and take more chances - willing to give up big plays in order to make big plays. Some offenses are willing to turn the ball over in order to score more (GSOT comes to mind).

Starting field position doesn't just even itself out over time. It is part of that same discussion of overall team philosophy, offensive and special teams effectiveness.

Heck, I'm not even sure that a pick 6 or special teams TD doesn't count against a defense in the points allowed tally. Does it?

Not in the tallies I use. I purposefully use rankings that factor them out.

Starting field position doesn't even things out in terms of yardage either. So this is a moot point.

If you grant me that it isn't the most important statistic then there isn't an argument here. There's no point in judging defenses by a statistic that is less valuable and important.

 

[12intheBox]

Drop coach or coordinator. Because that's blatantly untrue. If you asked any coach or coordinator whether they'd prefer a defense that gave up less points or a defense that gave up less yards, you know what the answer would be.

I didn't say they would prefer it - I said if they use the term "top 5 defense" - total defense is what they would be referring to. It's the vernacular. You are, of course, free to abandon it - or suggest that it shouldn't be - but that is the language.