The dumbest pick in the draft?

[Force16X]

I thought this one was a head scratcher from the Browns ;

• 4 th Rnd
  
  #138
  
  
• Seth Devalve
  
  Princeton
  
  
• WR
• 
  Cleveland
  
  
• Compensatory

• What he brings:
  
  
  Devalve is an undersized move tight end prospect who has big hands and good speed. He's also a tough and shifty runner after the catch, but the level of competition he faced at Princeton is a concern and he's had some problems staying healthy. In addition, it's unlikely he ever develops into an effective in-line blocker.

kessler was a wee bit early as well. for as many picks as the brownies had, they really didnt bring home as much loot as they should have. they'll be trading down from a top 5 position next draft as well. maybe the Rams can interest them in a 2018 first rounder.

 

[jjab360]

We'll just have to disagree man. A kicker who is as close to automatic within 40 yards as you can possibly get (as well as being an ace at kickoffs) is definitely an added dimension to your team. That's a huge difference than what you're suggesting. GZ has the leg, definitely, but how many kicks within 40 yards did he miss last year? That leg means nothing if the kicker doesn't have the consistency to back it up.

Agree or disagree with the pick, that's fine. But to call it the dumbest pick in the draft? While it was definitely an unconventional pick, I think that's pushing it a little. One could argue that trading multiple picks to draft an FCS QB with limited experience after signing your previous year's starter to a two year deal with almost $20 mil per season was the most ludicrous. Time will tell huh.

You're definitely wrong here, but I'll give you a pass because you're a Rick and Morty guy.

 

[jrry32]

The majority of kicks in the NFL are within forty yards. If you're relying on your kicker to make 60 yard field goals consistently, you're running your offense wrong. See: Frank Cignetti.

Patriots could've won their playoff game last year had their kicker not missed an extra point. Vikings would've definitely won their playoff game had their kicker not missed a 19 yard field goal.

Over the past 5 years, around 2750 kicks were within 40 yards compared to around 2250 kicks outside 40 yards. That means approximately 55% of NFL FGs are within 40 yards compared to 45% outside of 40 yards.

What is the NFL average on kicks inside 40 yards over the past 5 years? 93.4%
What is the NFL average on kicks outside 40 yards over the past 5 years? 73.3%

What were Aguayo's college averages? 100% from inside 40 yards and 73.4% from outside 40 yards.

When you do the math, an average NFL team attempted around 31 FGs per year over the last 5 years. Of those 31 FGs, around 17 were inside 40 yards. Hitting 16 out of 17 FGs would be around 94.1% which is just above the NFL average.

Essentially, Aguayo's advantage over the average NFL kicker is ONE FG MAKE A YEAR. Over 40 yards, we can already see that his percentage is right at the NFL average.

Sorry but that's not worth a 2nd round pick to me.

 

[Wolfecola]

Over the past 5 years, around 2750 kicks were within 40 yards compared to around 2250 kicks outside 40 yards. That means approximately 55% of NFL FGs are within 40 yards compared to 45% outside of 40 yards.

What is the NFL average on kicks inside 40 yards over the past 5 years? 93.4%
What is the NFL average on kicks outside 40 yards over the past 5 years? 73.3%

What were Aguayo's college averages? 100% from inside 40 yards and 73.4% from outside 40 yards.

When you do the math, an average NFL team attempted around 31 FGs per year over the last 5 years. Of those 31 FGs, around 17 were inside 40 yards. Hitting 16 out of 17 FGs would be around 94.1% which is just above the NFL average.

Essentially, Aguayo's advantage over the average NFL kicker is ONE FG A YEAR UNDER 40 YARDS. Over 40 yards, we can already see that his percentage is right at the NFL average.

Sorry but that's not worth a 2nd round pick to me.

And I'm sure a lot of NFL front offices would be inclined to agree with that sentiment, judging by the amount of criticism the pick received. I just have a habit of playing devil's advocate in situations like these. I like it when teams think outside the box.

However, it doesn't seem your stats include the new extra points-- previously 19 yarders, now 32 yarders. Like I said, if you were to give New England the opportunity to give up what Tampa Bay did for that single extra point to beat the Broncos, I have a feeling Bill would take it.

 

[jrry32]

But to call it the dumbest pick in the draft? While it was definitely an unconventional pick, I think that's pushing it a little. One could argue that trading multiple picks to draft an FCS QB with limited experience after signing your previous year's starter to a two year deal with almost $20 mil per season was the most ludicrous. Time will tell huh.

Why would one argue that? At least the Eagles are going big. They're going after a potential franchise QB due to them not seeing Bradford as the long term answer.

Is it the riskiest pick in the draft? Arguably. Some would say we made the riskiest pick.

But it's certainly not the dumbest. If Wentz pans out, they come out way ahead.

If Aguayo pans out, there will be a lot of people who feel that the Bucs still didn't come out ahead. There's really not a lot of upside to the Aguayo pick imo.

 

[Wolfecola]

Why would one argue that? At least the Eagles are going big. They're going after a potential franchise QB due to them not seeing Bradford as the long term answer.

Is it the riskiest pick in the draft? Arguably. Some would say we made the riskiest pick.

But it's certainly not the dumbest. If Wentz pans out, they come out way ahead.

If Aguayo pans out, there will be a lot of people who feel that the Bucs still didn't come out ahead. There's really not a lot of upside to the Aguayo pick imo.

You would give $20 mil a year to a QB whom you don't view as the guy?

Risky, dumb, whatever. Synonyms for our conjecture.

If you judge a prior pick solely by the outcome, and then apply different criticism to a pick based on a prospects potential; If Wentz falls on his face, no doubt will the move made by the Eagles be criticized more than if Aguayo turns out to be the best kicker in the NFL.

 

[jrry32]

And I'm sure a lot of NFL front offices would be inclined to agree with that sentiment, judging by the amount of criticism the pick received. I just have a habit of playing devil's advocate in situations like these. I like it when teams think outside the box.

However, it doesn't seem your stats include the new extra points-- previously 19 yarders, now 32 yarders. Like I said, if you were to give New England the opportunity to give up what Tampa Bay did for that single extra point to beat the Broncos, I have a feeling Bill would take it.

I don't think Bill would. Their kicker, Gostkowski, was 52 of 52 on PATs going into the playoffs. And is considered one of the best kickers in football because of his great range and accuracy.

But even if you include extra points, that's another 1-2 points added per year vs. the average kicker. So Aguayo offers you 4-5 points per year vs. the average kicker. Is that worth a 2nd round pick? Not to me.

Especially when you consider that Aguayo hasn't shown great range. Essentially, you're left hoping that Aguayo becomes Dan Bailey. But the Cowboys signed Dan Bailey as an undrafted free agent.

 

[jrry32]

You would give $20 mil a year to a QB whom you don't view as the guy?

Risky, dumb, whatever. Synonyms for our conjecture.

You can't judge a prior pick solely by the outcome, and then apply different criticism to a pick based on a prospects potential. Gotta' keep it uniform.

The Eagles didn't give Bradford $20 million a year. And they had already made that move prior to the draft. It's also notable that Bradford's deal wasn't a long term deal.

I can judge a prior pick by the outcome and consider potential at the same time. Because what is Aguayo's potential? It's not much better than what I gave him credit for in my prior post. And that's not worth a 2nd round pick.

What is Wentz's potential? It's easily worth everything Philadelphia gave up.

 

[Wolfecola]

The Eagles didn't give Bradford $20 million a year.

2 years, $35 million. So $17.5 a year. BIG DIFF

I don't Bill would. Their kicker, Gostkowski, was 52 of 52 on PATs going into the playoffs. And is considered one of the best kickers in football because of his great range and accuracy.

But even if you include extra points, that's another 1-2 points added per year vs. the average kicker. So Aguayo offers you 4-5 points per year vs. the average kicker. Is that worth a 2nd round pick? Not to me.

Especially when you consider that Aguayo hasn't shown great range. Essentially, you're left hoping that Aguayo becomes Dan Bailey. But the Cowboys signed Dan Bailey as an undrafted free agent.

Okay, fair enough. Although the opinion amongst almost every draft profile, analyst, Mel Kiper Jr (whatever he is), etc.. that I could find suggests a third round grade on Aguayo. I concede teams' boards and draft projections are rarely in sync for the later rounds, but why would these guys give Aguayo such a high grade if he was the average kicker who'd be available in rounds 6-7, or as an UDFA?

 

[jrry32]

2 years, $35 million. So $17.5 a year. BIG DIFF



Okay, fair enough. Although the opinion amongst almost every draft profile, analyst, Mel Kiper Jr (whatever he is), etc.. that I could find suggests a third round grade on Aguayo. I concede teams' boards and draft projections are rarely in sync for the later rounds, but why would these guys give Aguayo such a high grade if he was the average kicker who'd be available in rounds 6-7, or as an UDFA?

People make bad decisions. Which also explains why the Eagles gave Bradford $17.5 million a year.

Aguayo isn't the average kicker. My point is that he's not enough of an upgrade on the average kicker to be worth the price that was paid.

 

[Mackeyser]

Over the past 5 years, around 2750 kicks were within 40 yards compared to around 2250 kicks outside 40 yards. That means approximately 55% of NFL FGs are within 40 yards compared to 45% outside of 40 yards.

What is the NFL average on kicks inside 40 yards over the past 5 years? 93.4%
What is the NFL average on kicks outside 40 yards over the past 5 years? 73.3%

What were Aguayo's college averages? 100% from inside 40 yards and 73.4% from outside 40 yards.

When you do the math, an average NFL team attempted around 31 FGs per year over the last 5 years. Of those 31 FGs, around 17 were inside 40 yards. Hitting 16 out of 17 FGs would be around 94.1% which is just above the NFL average.

Essentially, Aguayo's advantage over the average NFL kicker is ONE FG MAKE A YEAR. Over 40 yards, we can already see that his percentage is right at the NFL average.

Sorry but that's not worth a 2nd round pick to me.

on average, that's 1 a year. But...

What if that's a game winner? What if that's to make the playoffs?

What if the Bucs end up with a statistically greater amount of FG opportunities than the league average?

We won't know if it's dumb or not until we know. And at some point he is going to miss.

That said, one has to think that this dynamic changes things for the defenses they face. If the defense thinks that once they get to the 27 yard line, the FG is automatic, then they may play it as a harder line to defend. That gives the Bucs OC a chance to run double moves, misdirections, pick plays and trips with multiple routes around the 27 yard line and then a breakout route that goes deeper.

Essentially, it's one thing to have a solid FG kicker. Heck, when GZ was a little more accurate, teams started tightening up at midfield because they didn't want us to get to the 45 and that led to a few middle zone play action plays because teams were really defending that imaginary FG line.

We'll see how it works out for them in the long run. I'm just saying that if he remains as accurate in the pros as he was in college, then it has the potential to affect how defenses play them outside the redzone. When a kicker can affect how the opposing defense plays the offense in a positive way, that's pretty good.

 

[jrry32]

on average, that's 1 a year. But...

What if that's a game winner? What if that's to make the playoffs?

What if the Bucs end up with a statistically greater amount of FG opportunities than the league average?

I don't really think you can assess if it's a game winner to make the playoffs considering we won't have access to the alternative timeline. But even if it was, the opportunity cost of drafting Aguayo was not using that pick on a player who potential would have had more of an impact. So it's possible they wouldn't have needed that game winner if they drafted a different player in that spot.

Point is that it's 4-5 points a year when compared to the average kicker. That's less than a TD a year. I wouldn't go into my 2nd round pick hoping that I draft a WR who scores 1 more TD per year than the average NFL starting WR.

What if the Bucs end up with a greater amount of opportunities? What happens if they end up having to take more 40+ yard FGs than the NFL average?

We won't know if it's dumb or not until we know. And at some point he is going to miss.

We don't know anything at this point. But I think we're all within our rights to analyze and say, "I don't see the upside here for this pick to be worth it."

That said, one has to think that this dynamic changes things for the defenses they face. If the defense thinks that once they get to the 27 yard line, the FG is automatic, then they may play it as a harder line to defend. That gives the Bucs OC a chance to run double moves, misdirections, pick plays and trips with multiple routes around the 27 yard line and then a breakout route that goes deeper.

Well, the 27 yard line is a greater than 40 yard FG.

I also don't see that changing the way the defense defends people because it's already pretty much automatic. If the team is near your 20 yard line, you're probably happy to have them settle for a FG.

Essentially, it's one thing to have a solid FG kicker. Heck, when GZ was a little more accurate, teams started tightening up at midfield because they didn't want us to get to the 45 and that led to a few middle zone play action plays because teams were really defending that imaginary FG line.

We'll see how it works out for them in the long run. I'm just saying that if he remains as accurate in the pros as he was in college, then it has the potential to affect how defenses play them outside the redzone. When a kicker can affect how the opposing defense plays the offense in a positive way, that's pretty good.

I'm just not seeing it. The area where a FG becomes a 39 yard FG is the 21/22 yard line. That's near the red-zone. The defense is already at a point where they're happy if you settle for a FG.

 

[Dodgersrf]

I agree with the author that Aguayo was not a smart pick.

Doesn't have the leg and range to be worth that high of a pick.

Would you take Aguayo over Pead and Quick?

I think Kickers are a bit undervalued.
When you play only 16 games a year, and your praying for that you hit that 45 yrd FG with seconds left....you realize how important they are.

 

[jrry32]

Would you take Aguayo over Pead and Quick?

I think Kickers are a bit undervalued.
When you play only 16 games a year, and your praying for that you hit that 45 yrd FG with seconds left....you realize how important they are.

Yes. But I wouldn't take him over Alshon Jeffery and Lavonte David.

You're essentially saying that Aguayo is an acceptable pick because he's low risk. Would you be okay with drafting an elite FB in the 2nd round? How about an elite Punter?

I can recognize that Kickers are important and still think that Aguayo in the 2nd is terrible value.

 

[Dodgersrf]

Yes. But I wouldn't take him over Alshon Jeffery and Lavonte David.

You're essentially saying that Aguayo is an acceptable pick because he's low risk. Would you be okay with drafting an elite FB in the 2nd round? How about an elite Punter?

I can recognize that Kickers are important and still think that Aguayo in the 2nd is terrible value.

No. what I'm saying is that ALL second rndrs are a risk.

Why not get a guy, a team feels, will really help them win.
That's all they want to do anyway.

 

[Akrasian]

So McFadden will get injured at some point this coming season, based on his history in the league. You're stuck with Morris and who? Morris is a workhorse, but lacks the home run speed. Elliott was the best pick for Dallas, imo.

You know how you keep Romo healthy? Let him hand the ball of to a triple threat running attack. Play action to Dez. They already have the best offensive line in football! Might as well play to their strengths.

It's not stupid to take a RB in the draft - it was stupid to take one at #4, when they had so many holes, and already had two good running backs. Getting an impact defensive player in a draft with a slew of them and only one gone when they picked would have been smart. Or trading down a bit for more picks, using the lower #1 to take Lynch instead of having to settle on another QB later on would have been smarter, then using the extra picks to get some defense and a RB later on would have made sense too. There are limited resources - when there are only so many carries do you really want to devote a ton of cap room AND the #4 pick for one position - a position you've found you can fill pretty well with okay talent, thanks to the OL?

 

[jrry32]

No. what I'm saying is that ALL second rndrs are a risk.

Why not get a guy, a team feels, will really help them win.
That's all they want to do anyway.

They certainly can. But I'm not going to call it a smart pick because they wanted to avoid the risk.

Aguayo doesn't offer enough value for it to be worth drafting him in the 2nd when your typical kicker comes from the 6th/7th rounds or UDFA.

 

[Shawnbb158]

Bleacher report....… do I need to say more

 

[jrry32]

It's not stupid to take a RB in the draft - it was stupid to take one at #4, when they had so many holes, and already had two good running backs. Getting an impact defensive player in a draft with a slew of them and only one gone when they picked would have been smart. Or trading down a bit for more picks, using the lower #1 to take Lynch instead of having to settle on another QB later on would have been smarter, then using the extra picks to get some defense and a RB later on would have made sense too. There are limited resources - when there are only so many carries do you really want to devote a ton of cap room AND the #4 pick for one position - a position you've found you can fill pretty well with okay talent, thanks to the OL?

I disagree. You could say the same thing about us at #10 last year. Gurley was worth it. Zeke is worth it.

 

[Dodgersrf]

They certainly can. But I'm not going to call it a smart pick because they wanted to avoid the risk.

Aguayo doesn't offer enough value for it to be worth drafting him in the 2nd when your typical kicker comes from the 6th/7th rounds or UDFA.

They had to have felt another team was going after him.

Every year, we see players that are considered a reach go too early. Only later to find out that other teams were ready to take them.

As far as Aguayo, the only problem I have with taking him in the 2nd, was trading 2 middle end picks to move up to get him. That, even for me, seems a bit much.

A bit, hypocritical, I know.