Tavon Austin -- Refocused

[-X-]

So I decided to go through all of his games this year to see where he's at, where he COULD HAVE BEEN, and where he's projected to end up by the end of the season. Just to see if all of the criticism of him, and his OC was warranted prior to last week.

Receiving stats:
33 for 345 yards, 4 TDs

Targeted 51 times.
Projected targets on the season: 82.
Projected stats this year:
53 receptions, 552 yards, 7 TDs

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Punt returns:
30 returns, 268 yards 1 TD

Punt returns factoring in those negated by penalty:
36 returns, 456 yards, 2 TDs

Projected stats this year:
58 returns, 730 yards, 4 TDs

---------------------------------------------

Kick returns:
9 for 212 yards

Projected stats this year:
15 for 340 yards

Projected all-purpose yards this year
(factoring in yards lost due to penalty):
1622 yards, 11 TDs.

------------------------------------------------------

Hold on ... we're not done yet.

Drops (Figuratively speaking. Let's call them missed opportunities instead):
44 yards (catchable, but tough) against Atlanta
10 yards (hurried, but hit him in the hands) against Atlanta
8 yards (hit him in the hands) against Atlanta
4 yards (hit him in the hands) against Atlanta
5 yards (hit him in the hands) against Dallas
10 yards (diving attempt - catchable) against SF
40 yards (was held by Carlos Rodgers and had separation) against SF
0 yards (bubble screen - dropped) against Jax
1 yard (drop) against Jax
35 yards (flat throw by Clemens - he was open) against TEN
16 yards (low throw, but catchable) against Indy

So let's figure those all into his stat line, because they were there for him to be had. Which, in turn means, Schottenheimer dialed those things up but they weren't capitalized upon. Following me so far? If we add all of those missed opportunities into his current stat line, we get:

44 receptions, 518 yards, 4 TDs (could have been 6 TDs. see: italicized lines)
Projected, that would make 70 receptions, 828 yards, 9 TDs.
ALL PURPOSE YARDS: 1795 with 13 TDs

Now, I ask you. How would you feel about Schottenheimer AND Tavon Austin if he ends up with that? Still think he's not being utilized? Still think he's not being put in position to succeed? Still think Schottenheimer doesn't know how to use him? Because those projected (receiving only) stats are bested by only 8 rookies in the history of the NFL.

 

[Faceplant]

Looks great when you add it up like that!! Haha. I think he is going to be amazing, but you knew that. However, if you start adding plays that he DIDN'T make, as you did above, it is skewed. You would have to do that for everybody. It does give you an idea for how good his rookie season really could be going though. Tavon will be an all purpose yds freak when it is all said and done. Thats my hope anyway.

 

[SaneRamsFan]

Confidence is everything for an athlete and Tavon should have some now. I look for him to have those wow plays on a consistent basis now. It's been a learning process for everybody. Just really disappointed SB is injured-for him. He has endured enough that he deserves to be on the field during these breakout moments for the younger players.

 

[-X-]

Looks great when you add it up like that!! Haha. I think he is going to be amazing, but you knew that. However, if you start adding plays that he DIDN'T make, as you did above, it is skewed. You would have to do that for everybody. It does give you an idea for how good his rookie season really could be going though. Tavon will be an all purpose yds freak when it is all said and done. Thats my hope anyway.

That's true. I'd have to add in the 'missed opportunities' for the 8 receivers ahead of him, but I think the point of my post can remain valid. Going back and watching his snaps via NFL Rewind (and the search function) led me to the conclusion that he's being put in position to succeed. Indy was the only team that manned up on him and he made them pay. Every other team played zone (mostly) and bracketed him often. There were times that he beat his man off the line and got separation, but the throw was either off, or there was a penalty that negated his gain. If you take the numbers I provided and gave him flawless execution and full acclimation with the scheme (as would be the case with no drops and no improper routes), then his numbers would be outstanding. For a rookie, he's everything the Rams thought he'd be when they went up and drafted him.

 

[RamzFanz]

Yeah, you make a case, but I have to call the logic into question. You are saying if there were no penalties or drops, he would be comparable to guys who achieved those stats WITH penalties and drops.

I think the case of play calling is self evident. The long ball has been called before with mixed success. As I recall, he's been missed by the pass once or twice, he's caught one or two, he's dropped one or two, and he's drawn a penalty (that's from memory and may be off). This time he blew by the defender and it worked. I like that call opposite Givens because their speed stresses the secondary and creates big play opportunities. I wish they would call it more and keep the opposing secondary on their heels.

However, when they designed an intertwined crossing route and got him the ball in open space, TA = TD. We haven't really seen that before and I have to wonder why. I also don't see pick plays. It's really the only way he will explode IMHO. His weakness is, if you can catch him, he's fairly easy to tackle. His strength is that if he has 1 second to get up to speed and choose his path, he is too fast for most to catch and he will often make those ahead of him miss with his moves.

When they go entire games without calling his number as a receiver and without getting him the ball in space, yeah, I would have to say Schotty doesn't know how to use him. In the last 7 games he's averaged just over 2 receptions a game. No matter how you dice it, with the potential a well utilized TA has, that makes no sense to me.

We'll see though. If they design, call, and execute plays that get him the ball in open space where he is most successful, I expect he will be very explosive this season going forward. If they return to the throws in the flat with no blocking and 3 yard crossing routes into tight coverage, I expect he will return to what he's been, just OK.

 

[jrry32]

Did you count the 63 yard TD that was called back? :wink:

 

[-X-]

When they go entire games without calling his number as a receiver and without getting him the ball in space, yeah, I would have to say Schotty doesn't know how to use him. In the last 7 games he's averaged just over 2 receptions a game. No matter how you dice it, with the potential a well utilized TA has, that makes no sense to me.

Le'ts do it this way then. Instead of using hindsight to question how much he's being used, how would his 'true' projected numbers sound to you (nothing factored in for drops or penalties) at the end of the year? 53 receptions, 552 yards, 7 TDs. Those are just receiving stats, and don't take into account the nearly as important secondary reason he was drafted - special teams. Say he ends up with that by the end of the year. Is that okay? Or should a rookie have more than that when he's not even the starter at X or Z?

 

[-X-]

Did you count the 63 yard TD that was called back? :wink:

Yes.

 

[jrry32]

Yes.

I don't see it in the missed opportunities count? Is it in the original one? Wouldn't that give him 5 TDs receiving?

 

[-X-]

I don't see it in the missed opportunities count? Is it in the original one? Wouldn't that give him 5 TDs receiving?

Oh you're right. My bad. I had it on my notepad, but didn't add it to the post. Now my math is all fucked up (in his favor). lol.

At any rate, I know it's not a scientific method of assessing his play or the opportunities provided to him by the OC. But it does give an indication of how he *could have done* if he was the only rookie receiver who was flawless in his execution and had QB(s) who capitalized on every opportunity that he was open. The crux of my opinion (as I'm sure you're aware) is that he's not being handled negligibly by this coaching staff. He's a rookie who has some skills, and it's going to take more than 10 games into his career for those to be fully realized.

 

[bwdenverram]

So I decided to go through all of his games this year to see where he's at, where he COULD HAVE BEEN, and where he's projected to end up by the end of the season. Just to see if all of the criticism of him, and his OC was warranted prior to last week.

Receiving stats:
33 for 345 yards, 4 TDs

Targeted 51 times.
Projected targets on the season: 82.
Projected stats this year:
53 receptions, 552 yards, 7 TDs

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Punt returns:
30 returns, 268 yards 1 TD

Punt returns factoring in those negated by penalty:
36 returns, 456 yards, 2 TDs

Projected stats this year:
58 returns, 730 yards, 4 TDs

---------------------------------------------

Kick returns:
9 for 212 yards

Projected stats this year:
15 for 340 yards

Projected all-purpose yards this year
(factoring in yards lost due to penalty):
1622 yards, 11 TDs.

------------------------------------------------------

Hold on ... we're not done yet.

Drops (Figuratively speaking. Let's call them missed opportunities instead):
44 yards (catchable, but tough) against Atlanta
10 yards (hurried, but hit him in the hands) against Atlanta
8 yards (hit him in the hands) against Atlanta
4 yards (hit him in the hands) against Atlanta
5 yards (hit him in the hands) against Dallas
10 yards (diving attempt - catchable) against SF
40 yards (was held by Carlos Rodgers and had separation) against SF
0 yards (bubble screen - dropped) against Jax
1 yard (drop) against Jax
35 yards (flat throw by Clemens - he was open) against TEN
16 yards (low throw, but catchable) against Indy

So let's figure those all into his stat line, because they were there for him to be had. Which, in turn means, Schottenheimer dialed those things up but they weren't capitalized upon. Following me so far? If we add all of those missed opportunities into his current stat line, we get:

44 receptions, 518 yards, 4 TDs (could have been 6 TDs. see: italicized lines)
Projected, that would make 70 receptions, 828 yards, 9 TDs.
ALL PURPOSE YARDS: 1795 with 13 TDs

Now, I ask you. How would you feel about Schottenheimer AND Tavon Austin if he ends up with that? Still think he's not being utilized? Still think he's not being put in position to succeed? Still think Schottenheimer doesn't know how to use him? Because those projected (receiving only) stats are bested by only 8 rookies in the history of the NFL.

Good stuff X and great points. What I would also be interested in (no way to really do it) is also how many times he wasn't targeted but was open. I've seen a few occassions where he was open but didn't get the ball (yeah, you can say that about all receivers of course).
I'd like to see a lot more crossing routes like the 80 yarder against Indy. I think that's where he can do the most damage. If he get's LB's trying to cover him...good luck.

 

[-X-]

Good stuff X and great points. What I would also be interested in (no way to really do it) is also how many times he wasn't targeted but was open. I've seen a few occassions where he was open but didn't get the ball (yeah, you can say that about all receivers of course).
I'd like to see a lot more crossing routes like the 80 yarder against Indy. I think that's where he can do the most damage. If he get's LB's trying to cover him...good luck.

It can be done, but it's an exhaustive process of watching every play under Coach's Film. But even then, it wouldn't account for what the QB sees at the time. I watched Manning leave a wide open receiver near the endzone last night, but he just didn't see him. Your point, though, is a good one. How would we know if Austin isn't being used properly unless we see all of those opportunities as well. All we see are stats, and some would like to draw the conclusion that the coaches are dopes because he doesn't have 1000 yards receiving yet.

 

[bwdenverram]

It can be done, but it's an exhaustive process of watching every play under Coach's Film. But even then, it wouldn't account for what the QB sees at the time. I watched Manning leave a wide open receiver near the endzone last night, but he just didn't see him. Your point, though, is a good one. How would we know if Austin isn't being used properly unless we see all of those opportunities as well. All we see are stats, and some would like to draw the conclusion that the coaches are dopes because he doesn't have 1000 yards receiving yet.

I saw that last night also. Decker was WIDE open. Just shows that even the best miss easy TD's. I think the one thing that will really help Austin is if we had that #1 guy that would require consistent attention by the defense. We have a bunch of receivers but not a true #1. Maybe we need one, maybe we don't. But I am a believer that a Megatron, Jones, etc. sure would open things up for other receivers..

And it's year #1. Tavon will be a beast, I'm 100% sure of it.

 

[RamFan503]

I would argue that it is the quality of targets rather than the number of targets. I don't really have a problem with him only being targeted a few times a game but largely until the Indy game he was targeted with plays in traffic and with poorly designed screens and such. So in that I DO fault Schotty. IMO Schotty didn't know how to use him. It appears to me that he thought all they had to do was get the ball in Tavon's hands and he'd make people miss on some of those touches. That doesn't strike me as good game planning. It strikes me more as relying on a player to make something out of nothing and therefore make you look smart on the occasion that he does.

Sorry but I am still not in the Schotty camp just because he has made a few decent calls. IMO, he's taken WAY too long to come around in much of his play calling. I don't buy that our young guys are that much more incapable of execution than countless others. I'm not putting everything on him but I believe a lot of our ineptness on offense out of the gate lies squarely at his feet. I also believe he tries too hard to make players fit his plays. Look at DR. How long does it take to figure out that DR is a gamer but too small to keep jamming him up the gut? So in comes Zac and wadya know, he can actually do it with his frame and running style. Problem solved - right? Wrong. Stacy goes out and we try running DR up the gut like he is Stacy. I'm not even sure we called off tackle or sweep plays for DR until after he was already gimpy.

Maybe Schotty will progress and his offense will meld but I just don't see it. And for all the talent we have amassed, we are likely to keep seeing a middling offense that relies on the defense and special teams to win games. To me that spells continual striving to make the playoffs but always falling short of being a serious contender for the SB.

 

[bwdenverram]

I would argue that it is the quality of targets rather than the number of targets. I don't really have a problem with him only being targeted a few times a game but largely until the Indy game he was targeted with plays in traffic and with poorly designed screens and such. So in that I DO fault Schotty. IMO Schotty didn't know how to use him. It appears to me that he thought all they had to do was get the ball in Tavon's hands and he'd make people miss on some of those touches. That doesn't strike me as good game planning. It strikes me more as relying on a player to make something out of nothing and therefore make you look smart on the occasion that he does.

Sorry but I am still not in the Schotty camp just because he has made a few decent calls. IMO, he's taken WAY too long to come around in much of his play calling. I don't buy that our young guys are that much more incapable of execution than countless others. I'm not putting everything on him but I believe a lot of our ineptness on offense out of the gate lies squarely at his feet. I also believe he tries too hard to make players fit his plays. Look at DR. How long does it take to figure out that DR is a gamer but too small to keep jamming him up the gut? So in comes Zac and wadya know, he can actually do it with his frame and running style. Problem solved - right? Wrong. Stacy goes out and we try running DR up the gut like he is Stacy. I'm not even sure we called off tackle or sweep plays for DR until after he was already gimpy.

Maybe Schotty will progress and his offense will meld but I just don't see it. And for all the talent we have amassed, we are likely to keep seeing a middling offense that relies on the defense and special teams to win games. To me that spells continual striving to make the playoffs but always falling short of being a serious contender for the SB.

For the most I get it and agree with you. But I would argue that if you watch some of the plays Schotty has called they could of or should of worked if everyone executed. There has been some quick screens that if our WR's or Cook blocked would of been a much larger gain than they were. So it's kind of both. Shotty could do better, but so could the players executing the plays. We all know the penalties that have also killed some huge plays...UGH.

 

[RamzFanz]

Le'ts do it this way then. Instead of using hindsight to question how much he's being used, how would his 'true' projected numbers sound to you (nothing factored in for drops or penalties) at the end of the year? 53 receptions, 552 yards, 7 TDs. Those are just receiving stats, and don't take into account the nearly as important secondary reason he was drafted - special teams. Say he ends up with that by the end of the year. Is that okay? Or should a rookie have more than that when he's not even the starter at X or Z?

Those are solid rookie numbers for a decent receiver.

I'm just saying they aren't near what he could have. 25% of that total projected yardage will have come from the last game. Of that 25%, 60% came from the one play designed and executed to get him the ball in the open field. Coincidence? Where would he be if there were 5 or 10 plays a game designed to get him the ball in the open field?

Anyway, it's all conjecture. I just hope if I'm right that Schotty has seen the light. If I'm wrong, then Schotty has been using TA in the best possible manner and TA is just OK as a rookie receiver who will have huge games with a lot of OK games in between.

He's an animal on returns when there is reasonable blocking and no penalties. But it's the same as his receiving, if he doesn't have open space and a second to get up to speed, he tends to go nowhere because if they get him cornered, he's an easy tackle.

 

[RamzFanz]

It appears to me that he thought all they had to do was get the ball in Tavon's hands and he'd make people miss on some of those touches.

That's exactly what I think too and I think it's supported by the coaching's own comments. How many times did we hear "just get the ball in his hands any way we can"?

TA is a hugely talented and a special player, but he's not a Faulk that you can dump the ball to and he just makes it all happen. Once he's up to speed he can outrun and shake all kinds of defenders but he can't get up to speed if he has no room. Barry Sanders was the same way. If he had a hole or caught the ball in the open, forget about it, if not, he was an easy tackle for a RB.

Dude is gonna be fun to watch.

 

[-X-]

Anyway, it's all conjecture. I just hope if I'm right that Schotty has seen the light. If I'm wrong, then Schotty has been using TA in the best possible manner and TA is just OK as a rookie receiver who will have huge games with a lot of OK games in between.

I don't think it's fair to put it into those absolute terms. There's no room for the natural progression that all receivers go through in their first 2-3 years if you say either Schotty is negligent or TA is average based on what's transpired in these first 10 games. Some of which, by the way, Austin was limited due to his performance the week prior. In the Jax game he dropped two passes, so they limited his snaps against Tennessee. A game in which they weren't going to target him much anyway because of the favorable matchups Givens and Cook posed. Not to mention Tennessee's vulnerability against the rush.

Which brings me to another point (in which I'm just speaking out loud).

I've seen, in this thread, criticisms about the coaches because our primary receiver regressed (Givens, I presume). Well, how can we on one hand expect Tavon to have record rookie numbers, get Cook involved, establish the run, and get Givens lateral production from his rookie year? What about Pettis? Does he get some of the distribution too? Can I let people in on a little secret? Givens' average yards per game last year was 46.5. This year, it's 46.3. Does regressing mean a drop-off of less than one yard per game now? People know what he can do and they take that part of his game away now. And then there's the fact that we have a backup QB who doesn't have near the same arm strength.

I understand the expectations. We should have crazy yardage in the passing game simply because we added Tavon and signed Cook. Can I ask what that's based on though? When you take into account the lack of a run game early on, spotty offensive line play, and now no starting QB? If the QB spreads the ball around to multiple receivers in a run-oriented offense, why does it mean that the OC doesn't know what he's doing? If Tavon isn't getting crazy yards, it's because he can't yet due to defensive coordinators not being stupid. Also, does anyone remember his comment about how it sounded like they were speaking a foreign language in the huddle this year? Think he can make a sight adjustment off of a pre-snap read yet based on that? And Schotty just now figured that he can run a pick play to spring Tavon? lol. C'mon.......

Let Tavon continue to get his feet wet, and all this talk about how the coaches can't design a game plan better than fans will slowly disappear.

 

[Selassie I]

For whatever reason... This season, especially early on, has brought out an extremely large number of Veruca Salt Ram Fans.

TA's potential is through the roof... but he's still a rookie NFL WR. No matter who his OC is, the rookie learning curve must be dealt with.

I think both TA and Schotty are under appreciated regardless of the stats.

 

[-X-]

For whatever reason... This season, especially early on, has brought out an extremely large number of Veruca Salt Ram Fans.

TA's potential is through the roof... but he's still a rookie NFL WR. No matter who his OC is, the rookie learning curve must be dealt with.

I think both TA and Schotty are under appreciated regardless of the stats.

Agreed. lol @ Veruca Salt.

But I do understand the expectations that came with signing Cook to a trillion dollar contract and going up to draft Austin. Couple that with Bradford's second year in the system (continuity), and the signing of Jake Long, and I can see how we all decided that was enough to start piling up points. My only issue is with the blame game. It leaves out way too many other things that can go (and have) awry. A few different bounces or a few different mistakes eliminated, and this team's record could be inverted right now. If they were 6-4, I figure the criticisms would be a little less ... prevalent.