Watching that Colin Cowherd piece made me think of this article I recently read. I know this is about fantasy football but it shows how anyone can put any spin on any player they want.
Fantasy football needs a lot more curious. A lot more questions. Because whether it's analysts or fantasy players, they are full of judgment. They think they have everything figured out. They think they know which players will do well, which players won't, which positions to draft when, which NFL coaches are good and which are bad, which fantasy analysts are smart and which ones are morons. They judge everyone and they judge everything.
It's a good lesson for life and it's a good lesson for fantasy football. Instead of judging and thinking you know everything, be curious. Ask a question.
I'll start.
Which of these two quarterbacks do you want in fantasy this year?
Quarterback A: One of the first things that has to concern you is whether Quarterback A will even be on the field. Having missed 18(!) games the past four seasons (nearly 30% of his games), QBA has played all 16 games in a season only once in his NFL career. Given all his missed games, you have to be concerned about his offensive line. Last season, his O-line allowed pressure at the 10th-highest rate in the NFL. How bad was it? The line allowed pressure at the third-highest rate
when the opponent did NOT blitz. And that's a problem, because when blitzed, QBA's off-target percentage was worse than Dwayne Haskins' and Mitchell Trubisky's, among others.
QBA's yards per attempt has gone down three straight seasons, and who wants a dink-and-dunker in fantasy? Get this: 23.3% of his passes last season were thrown at or behind the line of scrimmage. His team added no significant pass-catchers this offseason, and he just lost the 1,000-yard receiver he had the highest catch rate with. His career is clearly on a downward trend (I mean, his touchdown passes are down a whopping 24% from even just two years ago).
Quarterback B: Meanwhile, Quarterback B has multiple finishes of ninth or better at the position, and he is set up for his best fantasy season ever. Why? He has a new playcaller who with his previous team got 72% of its offensive yards through the air (the sixth-highest rate in the NFL over that stretch). The coach's offense kept getting better, as last year it had its best season during his tenure in terms of passing yards per game, fastest tempo, TD/INT ratio and fantasy points per red zone attempt.
QBB gives you points with his arm and his legs; he's coming off a season in which he had the most rushing attempts of his career, doubled his rushing yards and rushing touchdowns from the season before and did that all in one fewer game played. He has been to multiple Pro Bowls, earned multiple NFL Player of the Week awards and is coming off career highs in completion percentage and on-target percentage, a career low in bad-throw percentage and took a big leap forward from 2019 with a higher touchdown percentage
and a lower interception percentage.
So, you know everything you need to know, right? You've spent this whole preseason studying, mock drafting, reading, listening and watching. So let me ask you again:
Which quarterback do you want?
Understand that every single thing I wrote about each player is 100% true.
I just gave you almost 500 words of detailed research about them. Do you really need more info? You know the right one to pick, don't you?
The draft clock is winding down. You hear my annoying voice yell at you from the computer screen.
"Hurry up! Make a pick!" Gotta make a call. And you know -- I mean, you
know -- which one you want. It's obvious. Quarterback B, right? The guy with the multiple top-nine finishes and the fantasy-friendly playcaller?
Well, before you answer, you should probably ask me a question.
Like, "Hey, Matthew, what are those guys' names?"
To which I would answer, "Well, Quarterback B is
Jared Goff."
"Oh, and Quarterback A is named
Patrick Mahomes."
Be curious, not judgmental.
I mean, I was just able to talk down Patrick Mahomes. I did it by using his rookie season, in which he sat for 15 games, and made it seem like he was injury-prone, while also ignoring that the reason he didn't play all 16 games every season is the Chiefs have usually clinched a bye by Week 16 or 17. I leaned into the Chiefs' offensive line woes without acknowledging the injuries or opt-outs from last year, or that the team feels it addressed all that during the offseason.
I didn't mention one reason to throw a lot of short bubble screens is that when you have
Tyreek Hill on your team, why not take advantage of the one of the fastest guys in the NFL? I ignored that the reason the Chiefs didn't make any major offseason moves for a pass-catcher is that they didn't need to and, I admit, it took me forever to find a good
Sammy Watkins stat to make it seem like him leaving the team would be an issue. His 1,000-yard season was in 2015 with the
Buffalo Bills, by the way. And finally, I was able to trend Mahomes down by comparing last season's stats to his ridiculous 50-touchdown 2018 season.
As for Goff, he has, in fact, had two usable fantasy seasons in which he finished in the top nine, but certainly not last season, and there wasn't a lot else to work with to make Goff sound good. So instead, I went with his new offensive coordinator, Anthony Lynn, and used all the ridiculous
Justin Herbert stats to make Lynn and Goff sound a lot better. Goff did have four rushing touchdowns last season after getting two the season before.
Lamar Jackson he isn't, but written the right way, he can sound like a dual threat.
Matthew Berry uses facts to paint the picture he wants you to see as it relates to player values for the upcoming season.
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