NFC Playoff Race Update and Week 16 Projections

[AvengerRam]

And down the stretch they come!!!

The Rams now find themselves in a playoff spot with three games to go. With Tampa Bay (who host Jacksonville this week) holding the NFC South lead, the race for the 6th and 7th seeds in the NFC playoffs looks like this, along with each team's Week 16 matchup:

6. Vikings 7-7 (Detroit)
7. Rams 7-7 (New Orleans)
8. Seahawks 7-7 (@ Tennessee)
9. Saints 7-7 (@ L.A. Rams)
10. Falcons 6-8 (Indianapolis)
11. Packers 6-8 (@ Carolina)

There are no two ways about it... the Rams' game against the Saints is HUGE. A win gives us the tiebreaker over the Saints (and we already hold the tiebreaker over Seattle). It also ensures that the Packers, who have the tiebreaker over us, would remain a game behind.

Here's my projection: Rams win, Detroit beats the Vikings, Seahawks beat Tennessee, Falcons and Bucs lose, Packers win. That would make the standings look like this at week's end (with Bucs holding on to NFC South despite sub-500 record):

6. Rams 8-7
7. Seahawks 8-7
8. Vikings 7-8
9. Packers 7-8
10. Saints 7-8
11. Falcons 6-9

Let's keep this thing going!!!!

 

[Merlin]

If the Vikings lose and we win we might be able to avoid needing that last game to get in.

Do us a solid here Jared.

 

[Loyal]

The Hawks got beat in almost every way last night, except the ending. They could very well lose to the Titans next weekend.

 

[Rams8821]

Vikings may not win another game. Take care of our business and we'll be there.

 

[rdlkgliders]

Here are several scenarios in which the L.A. Rams can complete a 3-6 turnaround into a playoff berth (playoff odds in parentheses):​

10-7 (Run the table)​

Win vs. Saints (73%)​

Win vs. Giants (95%)​

Win vs. 49ers (100%)​

9-8 (2-1 the rest of the way - Loss vs. 49ers)​

Win vs. Saints (73%)​

Win vs. Giants (95%)​

Loss vs. 49ers (92%)​

9-8 (2-1 the rest of the way - Loss vs. Saints)​

Loss vs. Saints (11%)​

Win vs. Giants (14%)​

Win vs. 49ers (75%)​

9-8 (2-1 the rest of the way - Loss vs. Giants)​

Win vs. Saints (73%)​

Loss vs. Giants (25%)​

Win vs. 49ers (92%)​

8-9 (1-2 the rest of the way - Loss vs. Saints & 49ers)​

Loss vs. Saints (11%)​

Win vs. Giants (17%)​

Loss vs. 49ers (5%)​

8-9 (1-2 the rest of the way - Loss vs. Giants & 49ers)​

Win vs. Saints (73%)​

Loss vs. Giants (25%)​

Loss vs. 49ers (14%)​

8-9 (1-2 the rest of the way - Loss vs. Giants & Saints)​

Loss vs. Saints (11%)​

Loss vs. Giants (1%)​

Win vs. 49ers (6%)​

ESPN Analytics Matchup Predictor:​

Rams have a 60.1% chance of beating the Saints

Rams have a 81.9% chance of beating the Giants

49ers have a 74.4% chance of beating the Rams

Here’s your weekly rooting guide if you want the Rams to get into the playoffs. This is of course the perfect scenario for each game the rest of the way. The percentages only reflect the odds if the Rams win their game. The games are ranked based on importance and impact for the Rams odds.

Week 16: 49% chance going into the week​

1. Rams victory over Saints (73%)
2. Titans victory over Seahawks (79%)
3. Panthers victory over Packers (79%)
4. Lions victory over Vikings (76%)
5. Cardinals victory over Bears (76%)
6. Colts victory over Falcons (74%)
7. Eagles victory over Giants (74%)

Week 17: 73% chance going into the week​

1. Rams victory over Giants (93%)
2. Steelers victory over Seahawks (99%)
3. Vikings victory over Packers (94%)

Week 18: 93% chance going into the week​

1. Rams victory over 49ers (100%)

IF the Rams lose (92%):

1. Cardinals victory over Seahawks (98%)
2. Bears victory over Packers (95%)
3. Lions victory over Vikings (94%)

The Rams are in a great position right now after a dream of a scenario unfolding in week 15. Sure, the Eagles winning would have made things way better for the Rams and set up a easier clinching scenario in week 17. However, the Rams still always knew the assignment and the mission ahead. They were to win the next two games for sure and if they win out they are in. So, the Rams cannot make the playoffs at 7-10 but that’s not news to anyone. They can make it at 8-9 but you would need a lot of help and 8-9 would entail the Rams to lose three of their last five games of the year which is hard to imagine.

In case you really don’t have any faith in the Rams winning week 18 like I do against the 49ers. Here are the scenarios left on the table for the Rams to clinch a playoff berth before week 18:

1st Scenario

• 2-0 vs. Saints and Giants
• Lions win in week 16 over the Vikings
• Seahawks lose either of the Titans or Steelers games

2nd Scenario

• 2-0 vs. Saints and Giants
• Lions win in week 16 over the Vikings
• Panthers win in week 16 over the Packers
• Packers win in week 17 over the Vikings

 

[CGI_Ram]

The Hawks got beat in almost every way last night, except the ending. They could very well lose to the Titans next weekend.

And Drew Lock won’t play another game this season as good as he was last night.

 

[CGI_Ram]

Loss vs. Saints (11%)

That makes this week nearly a must win.

Best we can do is climb back to 75% chance.

 

[Memphis Ram]

That Monday night game was HUGE.

Seahawks could very well run the table vs. the Texans, Steelers, and Cardinals making the Rams tie-breaker moot if they don't do the same.

 

[rdlkgliders]

I hope we aren't in Blueberries

 

[RamWoodie]

And down the stretch they come!!!

The Rams now find themselves in a playoff spot with three games to go. With Tampa Bay (who host Jacksonville this week) holding the NFC South lead, the race for the 6th and 7th seeds in the NFC playoffs looks like this, along with each team's Week 16 matchup:

6. Vikings 7-7 (Detroit)
7. Rams 7-7 (New Orleans)
8. Seahawks 7-7 (@ Tennessee)
9. Saints 7-7 (@ L.A. Rams)
10. Falcons 6-8 (Indianapolis)
11. Packers 6-8 (@ Carolina)

There are no two ways about it... the Rams' game against the Saints is HUGE. A win gives us the tiebreaker over the Saints (and we already hold the tiebreaker over Seattle). It also ensures that the Packers, who have the tiebreaker over us, would remain a game behind.

Here's my projection: Rams win, Detroit beats the Vikings, Seahawks beat Tennessee, Falcons and Bucs lose, Packers win. That would make the standings look like this at week's end (with Bucs holding on to NFC South despite sub-500 record):

6. Rams 8-7
7. Seahawks 8-7
8. Vikings 7-8
9. Packers 7-8
10. Saints 7-8
11. Falcons 6-9

Let's keep this thing going!!!!

Well...I don't think the hags are t gonna beat the Titans.

 

[FaulkSF]

I hope we aren't in Blueberries

Bone and yellow

 

[Steve808]

The whiners have the tie breaker against the Eagles and cowgirls. If they have a +1 game advantage for the playoff bye, then the Rams should be playing backups on the last week.

But I had to ask myself the question, would it be better to make the #7 seed and likely be 1 and done or win a playoff game and get killed by the whiners, or miss the playoffs and get a decent drafting position?

Obviously for the players, it's better to get in. But I think the Rams will be a contender next season. Not sure if I will be overly disappointed if we miss the playoffs. (being a realist, this team cannot run the gauntlet on the road and win the SB, IMO)

 

[TexasRam]

Yea the game vs the Saints is massive due to the head to head tiebreaker and the Saints wildcard positioning.

The Giants game looks irrelevant in comparison.

I expect the Niners to be in position to rest starters vs the Rams. Shanahan is very familiar with injuries affecting his playoff run so you can bet your ass he will rest starters.

 

[Mojo Ram]

I just want to get in








and go to Detroit and ruin the party

 

[AvengerRam]

Well...I don't think the hags are t gonna beat the Titans.

I hope you’re right. Unfortunately, it looks like Will Levis will be out with an ankle injury. I’d like their chances if they play Ryan Tannehill but, given the fact that he’s on his way out (UFA this offseason) and the Titans have been eliminated, they may play Malik Willis. I don’t have a lot of confidence in him.

 

[rdlkgliders]

I just want to get in

This is what's wrong with society today, what happened to the Kool Aid man, Grape Ape or Toucan Sam and where is the Honeycomb Hideout. No wonder we aren't safe anymore

 

[Tumak61]

Win out and we're in. No need for scenarios. If the Rams win out they are EN FUEGO heading into the playoffs. We control our destiny, or as Sean McVay would probably put it. "We write our own story".

 

[dang]

Yea the game vs the Saints is massive due to the head to head tiebreaker and the Saints wildcard positioning.

The Giants game looks irrelevant in comparison.

I expect the Niners to be in position to rest starters vs the Rams. Shanahan is very familiar with injuries affecting his playoff run so you can bet your ass he will rest starters.

Rams need to win the last 3 to assure themselves of a playoff berth. Anything less and they are reliant on other teams to win/lose. The old “one game at a time” it starts with having one of their better outings to take the Saints. I am grateful their games have meaning at this point in the season but I’ll be very disappointed if they don’t finish SSS-TTT-RRRR-O-NNN-GGGG!!!

 

[Loyal]

Big Whit was on Rich Eisen's show and he believes the Rams and the seahawks will be the Wild Card teams in the NFC (sorry Cards, go ahead and sit down).....

 

[dieterbrock]

Big Whit was on Rich Eisen's show and he believes the Rams and the seahawks will be the Wild Card teams in the NFC (sorry Cards, go ahead and sit down).....

I think Seattle's bubble gets burst this weekend in Tennessee