Measuring Tavon

[Merlin]

As I look through this roster I keep coming back to Tavon and what a darkhorse he is. And of course there is the difficulty of measuring his impact on this team as a whole in terms of a typical wideout for one simple reason: you can't force the ball to him like you can with a guy with a good catch radius and contested catch ability.

I am assuming here that his radius and inability to make contested catches are not going to change. It's not just about his size, as there are small guys who have contested catch ability, but Tavon ain't ever gonna be that guy.

But what is interesting about him is even with that assumption being true it is possible he will emerge as a legitimate weapon in this offense. Which begs the question: what would that look like statistically?

I'm going to go with two metrics: TDs and field position change type plays, which would be plays of 20+ yards. In 2013 he only started 3 games, but racked up 569 yards and 5 TDs. In 2015 he had 907 yards and 9 TDs. Both of those seasons' stats include rushing totals as well btw, which I think will continue to be part of his usage. But back to TDs and field position changes why those two metrics? Because he's basically a big play option more than anything else when it comes down to measuring his value.

Now that said his 20+ yard gains are difficult to look up so let's avoid that as a discussion piece for now. And for reference the rarified air for TD totals are 20ish, with all the records being in that range (Moss 23, Rice 22, Clayton 18). What do those receivers have in common? Benefactors of getting a high volume of passes thrown to them as a primary option in good offenses. That's not Tavon IMO. He's never going to be that guy who gets 100 receptions, I just don't see it.

So what is his expected TD total if he were to find himself in a well designed offense with a QB who can deliver the ball? I'm going to go with 10-15. Ten minimum because he's going to get the ball in space and he had 9 in a much lesser offense back in 2015. Fifteen maximum because that's nearing a TD a game pace, which is going to be very hard for any player to get without being a primary receiving option.

Back to field position change type plays, in 2015 he had 11 plays of 20+ yards in 104 total touches (run/pass). In 2013 he had 7 over 49 total touches. Since 2013 was his rookie season it's safe to say teams had him identified thereafter as a focus target, so the big play ratio per touch is more realistic looking at the 2015 numbers.

Extrapolating it out here's how I'd take a stab on what I'd expect out of Tavon IF this offense is well designed and the basic functionality is there from the QB position and line, and note these are rushing and receiving totals:

TDs: 10-15
Yards: 700-1200
Touches: 80-120
20+ yard gains: 12-18

Lastly, I suspect his numbers will be better in TDs and 20+ yard gains if his touches are lower in a good offense. Why? Because defenses will not be able to key on him as successfully, which means more chances of possessing the ball in space.

Am I crazy? Yeah, probably. Fire away foos.

 

[Merlin]

Oh and disclaimer: the above do not take into account his special teams numbers.

 

[jrry32]

I have no idea what Austin will do. I am hoping this will be the year it all clicks for him, but I don't have much confidence in that. That all said, the one thing that gives me some relief is that he finally has offensive minds who understand how to put players in a position to succeed. Austin is a unique player with some limitations. I'm hopeful that McVay's ability to scheme will open up opportunities for Austin to get some favorable match-ups and scheme him open.

If he can do that, we all know what Austin can do with the ball in his hands and some space. He was always a terrible fit for Fisherball. We'll see if Austin can take the necessary steps forward to be an impact player for McVay. Based on how McVay used guys like Jamison Crowder and Jordan Reed, it does make me feel more confident in Austin's future here.

But if Austin doesn't figure it out this year, I don't think he has a future here with his current contract.

 

[StealYoGurley]

Thanks for the debate points Merlin.

This is going to be a fun thread.

 

[Riverumbbq]

Extrapolating it out here's how I'd take a stab on what I'd expect out of Tavon IF this offense is well designed and the basic functionality is there from the QB position and line, and note these are rushing and receiving totals:

TDs: 10-15
Yards: 700-1200
Touches: 80-120
20+ yard gains: 12-18

Lastly, I suspect his numbers will be better in TDs and 20+ yard gains if his touches are lower in a good offense. Why? Because defenses will not be able to key on him as successfully, which means more chances of possessing the ball in space.

Am I crazy? Yeah, probably. Fire away foos.

Not really sure what to expect with Austin's rush numbers as Dunbar is likely to cut deep into his past exploits. Even those lower numbers would make me happy if Woods & Higbee make a splash. Since we are probably looking at a rookie wide-out, Austin may get more pass attempts in 2017, although that figure could dwindle in the future as the rookie WR catches on, more likely in 2018. Our present day tallest receivers other than Higbee may struggle to make the roster, much less get snaps, so red zone success is a bit of a concern for me.

As always, looking forward to watching the young guys, especially those that didn't participate much last year, guys like McRoberts (6'2"), North (6'3") & Hemingway (6'5"), and of course that guy who dropped most everything coming his way last season, Thomas (6'1").

My apologies for almost answering the OP's title with :

... a ruler, not a yardstick ?

 

[Zero]

As I look through this roster I keep coming back to Tavon and what a darkhorse he is. And of course there is the difficulty of measuring his impact on this team as a whole in terms of a typical wideout for one simple reason: you can't force the ball to him like you can with a guy with a good catch radius and contested catch ability.

I am assuming here that his radius and inability to make contested catches are not going to change. It's not just about his size, as there are small guys who have contested catch ability, but Tavon ain't ever gonna be that guy.

But what is interesting about him is even with that assumption being true it is possible he will emerge as a legitimate weapon in this offense. Which begs the question: what would that look like statistically?

I'm going to go with two metrics: TDs and field position change type plays, which would be plays of 20+ yards. In 2013 he only started 3 games, but racked up 569 yards and 5 TDs. In 2015 he had 907 yards and 9 TDs. Both of those seasons' stats include rushing totals as well btw, which I think will continue to be part of his usage. But back to TDs and field position changes why those two metrics? Because he's basically a big play option more than anything else when it comes down to measuring his value.

Now that said his 20+ yard gains are difficult to look up so let's avoid that as a discussion piece for now. And for reference the rarified air for TD totals are 20ish, with all the records being in that range (Moss 23, Rice 22, Clayton 18). What do those receivers have in common? Benefactors of getting a high volume of passes thrown to them as a primary option in good offenses. That's not Tavon IMO. He's never going to be that guy who gets 100 receptions, I just don't see it.

So what is his expected TD total if he were to find himself in a well designed offense with a QB who can deliver the ball? I'm going to go with 10-15. Ten minimum because he's going to get the ball in space and he had 9 in a much lesser offense back in 2015. Fifteen maximum because that's nearing a TD a game pace, which is going to be very hard for any player to get without being a primary receiving option.

Back to field position change type plays, in 2015 he had 11 plays of 20+ yards in 104 total touches (run/pass). In 2013 he had 7 over 49 total touches. Since 2013 was his rookie season it's safe to say teams had him identified thereafter as a focus target, so the big play ratio per touch is more realistic looking at the 2015 numbers.

Extrapolating it out here's how I'd take a stab on what I'd expect out of Tavon IF this offense is well designed and the basic functionality is there from the QB position and line, and note these are rushing and receiving totals:

TDs: 10-15
Yards: 700-1200
Touches: 80-120
20+ yard gains: 12-18

Lastly, I suspect his numbers will be better in TDs and 20+ yard gains if his touches are lower in a good offense. Why? Because defenses will not be able to key on him as successfully, which means more chances of possessing the ball in space.

Am I crazy? Yeah, probably. Fire away foos.

I ,personally think you are spot on.If my calculations are correct
I see a big jump in the 20+ gains.But the big difference will be in how
those gains are obtained.I Think McVay and company will find a way
to make Tavon a more consistent vertical threat,something that (pick a reason)
the previous regime failed to do.We do not have a "take the top off" receiver
on the roster.We may draft one,but if we do,how much will he contribute his
rookie year?It's not like we have a top ten pick.
That being said,Tavon is the only receiver capable of blowing past coverage.
Don't get me wrong,he will need McVay to be creative to make it happen.
But I have faith Martz.2 will get it done.

 

[A.J. Hicks]

I am not as adept as some of you when it comes to the history of football.

But remember in the last 10 or so years when the LEO position became a dynamite position on defense. I believe Pete Carrol being the guy to bring it in . . . ?

Think about a player like Tavon in that skill set. He's going to be put all over the place and asked to use his athletic ability to make plays.

Chiefs used Tyreke Hill in a way that shows this is a position that is on the rise.

 

[Loyal]

The thing about Tavon, whenever he is handed/tossed/screened the ball, it just feels like a punt return after that. What I mean by that if he has enough space, he can make people look foolish trying to stop him. If I remember correctly, Fisher/Snead picked him the year we were trying the pass every play (almost) failure, that Fish switched away from after a few games...So then the wild card piece Tavon, was a problem using........

 

[wolfdogg]

Remember, tavon has at least 7 LONG td s called back as well as other long returns. He's not going to win the contested balls but if you design plays that get him in a position to get even a step on the cover guy, he'll be like welker, who I always wanted the rams to get way before the pats. I loved the way he ran into the kick so he was already near top speed a couple steps after catching it. The pats knew how to use him and are a big reason why he's a hall of fame wr.

 

[StealYoGurley]

I am not nearly as optimistic about Tavon. As a receiver he has been historically inefficient by several standards. Even with that level of inefficiency the 2015 Rams funneled touches to him as the number one option. Tavon required that type of usage to get those numbers, and I don't see him approaching that kind of usage under McVay, especially in the redzone. In a good offense he should be at best the third option. To put that in the context of McVay's and LaFleur's former offenses he fills the Taylor Gabriel or Jamison Crowder role; guys who were the 4th option in the passing game. Granted, those guys are more polished receivers and didn't see nearly as much usage as runners.

The Rams obviously aren't a good offense and don't have enough weapons right now to make Tavon the 4th option. However, I could see him falling down the pecking order after the draft in a more specialized role where his skillet is more efficiently utilized. Tavon could become the 3rd or 4th guy in the pecking order which isn't a bad thing IMO:

• Tavon is probably already behind Woods.
• McVay loves TEs and makes them a focal point on offense so it is likely Tavon falls behind whoever is starting there.
• Add a highly drafted rookie to the mix combined with Dunbar's passing game usage

The efficiency discrepancy between a guy with a similar skill set in a good offense is huge. Last year Jamison Crowder put up 845 yards 7 TDs on 69 total touches primarily as a receiver. On the other hand, Tavon in 2015 had only 68 more yards and 2 more TDs on 35 more touches. In 2016 Tavon had 177 fewer yards and 3 fewer TDs on 17 more touches. To improve on offense the rams have to cut down Tavon's usage and improve his efficiency. That will require adding more weapons and IMO the Rams will definitely make that a priority in the draft.

 

[8to12]

Nice post Merlin. I agree with some of your points above about Tavon's limitations. I personally think that Tavon will never be a legitimate WR. My only hope in this upcoming season is that they use him as a "take the top off" player ; running alot of 9 routes and deep posts which will hopefully take one of the safeties deep leaving more open space underneath.
With that being said, I think he will be in the 6 - 8 TD range. After watching NFL Network this evening, they happened to cover the Eagles with the additions of Alshon Jeffrey and Torrey Smith. They showed their production along with Jordan Matthews. When talking about TD production, all of them averaged about 6 TD's per season, with none having more than 10 in any one season. And, this would be with better than average QB's throwing them the ball. In addition to this, only 5 receivers in the league last year had more than 10 TD's, and 2 of them were from the same team ; Jordy Nelson & Davonte Freeman.
The Rams offense would have to show overwhelming improvement in order to provide Tavon enough touches in space to produce 12 or more TD's. Up to this point in his career, he has only been able to produce as a receiver with man coverage. The game against the Colts a couple of years is good example. Seems that teams have played mostly zone against the Rams with Tavon on the field with much success.

 

[Jacobarch]

I keep telling myself D Jax...D Jax... D Jax...

Please Lord.....please ....

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

I think Tavon's days are numbered with the Rams. He hasn't shown the ability to live up to his contract. Small build that is easily pushed around, small hands that are very inconsistent, and poor routes just scream no to me. They could replace him with a guy like Kupp for a full-time starter or Switzer as a situational receiver and returner. This team needs receivers with good hands and a good catch radius that can get open. There are several receivers in this draft class that have the traits that Tavon lacks. I think he is easily replaceable.

 

[Sportsed]

Nice post Merlin and I agree with you. They key for Tavon is getting the ball with some space as he is a weapon more so than a receiver. Tavon will probably get fewer touches, but the field will be spread more, especially if we add another big play receiver. When defenses can key on Tavon it lowers his effectiveness, somewhat like Gurley last year; having a couple more playmakers on the field will open things up or both guys. We need competent qb play, effective ol blocking in both the run and passing game, and a couple more weapons on the field with Tavon and Gurley. Goff will perform a lot better, the ol will be be a lot better, and we'll add another weapon or two in the draft; but I see Tavon producing quite a few 20+ yd plays this year-----even on fewer touches.

 

[Mojo Ram]

I'll take 2015 Tavon again and be cool with that. I don't care about the contract either.

 

[shaunpinney]

Great post @Merlin, I see an improvement across the board on Tavon's stats this coming season, and during post-season.

Lets just see what he can do with an offensively minded bunch of coaches. I see a huge step forward in Yards and TDs - combined that is, because he's more than a WR. He IS the guy you want in space, lets just get him that space.

Offensively over the last few years the Rams have been appalling - especially through the air.

I believe McVay can make this guy work in an offense, and we know how dangerous he can be on ST.

The 2017 Rams are a new team - new mentality. Lets discuss this point again.

 

[Legatron4]

Tavon was sick in 2015. I would take that type of year from anyone. Especially with spotty QB play. I think we see 12-15 total touchdowns and 1000 total yards.

 

[Legatron4]

View: https://youtu.be/HD31Do9yRBo

Like I said. He was SICK.

 

[jap]

The NFL has had plenty of experience with electric jitterbug type players who can ring up the score board from anywhere on the field, and Tavon is one of the best of them all. NFL DCs know they have to flood the field with defenders to keep these guys contained, or they will destroy your defensive game plan. (Incidentally, Todd is a bigger version of Tavon---a huge electric jitterbug athlete.)

Tavon is a great weapon, but he will be maximally effective when he is surrounded by other weapons to the point where DCs cannot key on him almost exclusively. Let Todd dominate behind a rebuilt and well developed OL. Let Robert Woods, Cooper, and Higbee dominate the route tree. Then, when the DCs are distracted trying to keep the rest of these guys contained, now you spring plays with Tavon on them, and let them try to corral him with a player or two. Of course, Tavon has to maximize his route running and his hands. And every one else has to block for Tavon (or Todd) to do his thing. Todd and Tavon can be our dynamic Thunder & Lightning duo in an even bigger sense if everyone works together to set up the defense for plays to these guys. It would be nice to add a dynamic receiver to take the top off the defense, combining with Todd and Tavon to make a dynamic Unholy Trinity, but that may have to wait for a later day.

 

[Selassie I]

Taking T Awesome out of a "middle school offense" and putting him into an actual modern NFL offense will do wonders for the team. I think it's just that simple.