If Only The Rams Had The Pac 12 All Time Leader Passer Already On The Roster

[Roman Snow]

He won't. His dad's name is Ben. :flanders:

All kidding aside, seems like a great young man. Good work ethics. A winner. Has been through adversity. I would love to take a flier on him.

Like Mannion, a coaches kid.

 

[OldSchool]

@jrry32 and @OldSchool I did a lousy job of stating my point, the 10% I was referring to are not draft choice make or miss rates - for some reason I was equating that number to draft position of QBs throughout the NFLs history. (More than 10% of QBs with good to great nfl careers were drafted from the 3rd round on)

Of course, I'm just pulling that number out of my backside based on watching football a long, long time

Gotcha and I wasn't arguing with you just was curious so pulled the last 10 years to see as much for myself as anything. And for what it's worth I think if you go 3rd and beyond the numbers gonna drop below 10% just my thoughts though

 

[jrry32]

How is that percentage figured? What defines a guy as a "franchise QB"?

For instance do you consider Jeff George a "franchise QB"?

No.

Was Kerry Collins, #5 pick in 1995 a franchise QB?

No.

Is Alex Smith a franchise QB?

Yes. Right on the borderline.

When I think "franchise QB", I think of guys like Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, etc. One or two teams and success fairly early in their careers. If a guy doesn't start showing he had "it" by the time his rookie contract is up, can he be considered a "franchise QB"? And if it doesn't happen until he's with his 2nd or 3rd or 4th team, was that high pick well spent?

That's not how I define it. I define it as a starting QB good enough that you'll stick with him for the foreseeable future. Basically, a guy that you're not constantly looking to replace. Jay Cutler level is the cut-off point for me.

Yes, a guy can be considered a franchise QB if he hasn't shown it after his contract is up. Wouldn't be a good pick for his original team but he'd still have developed into a franchise QB.

 

[-X-]

That's not how I define it. I define it as a starting QB good enough that you'll stick with him for the foreseeable future. Basically, a guy that you're not constantly looking to replace. Jay Cutler level is the cut-off point for me.

Yes, a guy can be considered a franchise QB if he hasn't shown it after his contract is up. Wouldn't be a good pick for his original team but he'd still have developed into a franchise QB.

I agree with this definition.

 

[OldSchool]

Just pure numbers of chances taken on late rounders. Very few end up starters, there are some that become backups for a few years but few that become starters.

 

[OC--LeftCoast]

For whatever it's worth here is a list of 2015 starting QBs drafted 3rd and beyond or not drafted at all;

Wussel
Romo
Brady
Generally considered top 10 upper echelon

Then you have the next level after the top 10 (all 14 were drafted before the 3rd) most of them were 1st rounders

Then you have starters drafted 3rd and beyond (not exactly the scourge of the league)
Cousins
Fitzpatrick
T. Taylor
Josh McCown
B Hoyer
Foles-Keenum

Then you have the two wonder rooks

While there are no guarantees it's pretty obvious the best odds of finding a decent QB is definitely in the 1st round

 

[Mojo Ram]

While there are no guarantees it's pretty obvious the best odds of finding a decent QB is definitely in the 1st round

More than obvious. Obvious'er.

 

[Roman Snow]

More than obvious. Obvious'er.

I'll see your "er" my good man, and raise you an "est".

 

[Ramatik]

It's funny some people are advocating us not taking a QB because of Mannion yet they say the Browns should because they don't know what they have in RG3.

That one is easy. They should take a QB because RG3 is not a very good quarterback. He's a gimmick and he's frail. But what do the Browns know about quarterbacks anyway?

 

[PARAM]

That's not how I define it. I define it as a starting QB good enough that you'll stick with him for the foreseeable future. Basically, a guy that you're not constantly looking to replace. Jay Cutler level is the cut-off point for me.

Yes, a guy can be considered a franchise QB if he hasn't shown it after his contract is up. Wouldn't be a good pick for his original team but he'd still have developed into a franchise QB.

When I think of Franchise QB, I think of guys like the Mannings, Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Rivers, etc.. When I think of Alex Smith, Kirk Cousins, Sam Bradford, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Andy Dalton, etc., I think "Good QB".

When I think of Franchise QB, I don't think of guys you're not constantly looking to replace, I think of guys you'll do anything to keep. So understandably, there are different definitions of Franchise QB.

When I think of picking in the upper half of the first round, I'm looking for a Franchise QB.....somebody I'll go to any length to keep, not a good QB, somebody I'm not constantly looking to replace, though I may want to upgrade at some point in the near future.

And let's be honest. Sometimes that Franchise guy is not taken in the upper half of the first round or even the second round. Sometimes he's taken way down in the draft because he was under rated or surprised everybody. Brady, Bulger, Trent Green, Hassleback were all taken far down and they were guys who teams did a lot to keep. Brees, Favre, etc weren't even considered worthy of first round selection.

 

[aloharamfan]

Mannion had a very good year in his junior season. Excellent numbers. What happened in his final year in college?

Will the issues that caused his numbers to backslide be there in the pros? Not being sarcastic, just wondering if anyone has more info than I do.

 

[RamFanWA]

The Beavers are - how do I say this - not exactly Florida State.. somewhere in there Wheaton and Cooks exited the scene... but other than that....

 

[PARAM]

Mannion had a very good year in his junior season. Excellent numbers. What happened in his final year in college?

Will the issues that caused his numbers to backslide be there in the pros? Not being sarcastic, just wondering if anyone has more info than I do.

From what I can find, number wise.,,,,,they featured the run in his sophmore and senior seasons, the latter probably because he had nobody to catch the ball. He had a good season, win-loss wise his sophmore year. But he only threw 309 passes, completing 200. Marcus Wheaton caught 91 of them and Brandin Cooks caught 67. That's almost 80% of the completions. His top 2 RBs had 1355 yards on 260 carries (5.2). Wheaton left after that season (2012 and was a 3rd rd pick of the Steelers) and Cooks became the go-to guy, catching 128 passes for 1730 yards in 2013. The top 2 running backs had 998 yards on 240 carries (4.2), so I guess they leaned on Mannion and Cooks. His senior season Victor Boldin was the go-to guy (Cooks was drafted in 1st round by the Saints).....72/798 and again the top 2 RBs had 1462 on 254 carries so they seemed to favor the run.

Will those issues affect him in the NFL? I assume if he's got nobody to catch the ball, yes. And as it stands we could use a premier WR anyway, right?

Funny thing is a lot of guys who watch the Pac-10 seem to thing the kid has the tools. Some don't. His numbers may be a reflection of the two receivers or their numbers may be a reflection of his ability. Wheaton has 97 receptions his last two seasons with the Steelers. Cooks, 137, 84 in 2015 for 1138 yards.

 

[jrry32]

When I think of Franchise QB, I think of guys like the Mannings, Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Rivers, etc.. When I think of Alex Smith, Kirk Cousins, Sam Bradford, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Andy Dalton, etc., I think "Good QB".

When I think of Franchise QB, I don't think of guys you're not constantly looking to replace, I think of guys you'll do anything to keep. So understandably, there are different definitions of Franchise QB.

When I think of picking in the upper half of the first round, I'm looking for a Franchise QB.....somebody I'll go to any length to keep, not a good QB, somebody I'm not constantly looking to replace, though I may want to upgrade at some point in the near future.

And let's be honest. Sometimes that Franchise guy is not taken in the upper half of the first round or even the second round. Sometimes he's taken way down in the draft because he was under rated or surprised everybody. Brady, Bulger, Trent Green, Hassleback were all taken far down and they were guys who teams did a lot to keep. Brees, Favre, etc weren't even considered worthy of first round selection.

If I'm picking anywhere in the draft and I get a good QB, I consider it a tremendous victory.

I also think it's a bit odd that you're calling Bulger, Trent Green, and Hasselbeck "franchise QBs" after you just disagreed with my characterization of "good QBs" as franchise QBs.

Regardless, yes, you can find franchise QBs outside the first round. The odds are just extremely stacked against you.

For me, a franchise QB is simply a QB who a franchise can stick with for the foreseeable future. If I want to get into discussing the quality of a QB, I'll use terms like "elite," "great," "good," "top 5," etc. That's why I choose to define it that way.

 

[PARAM]

If I'm picking anywhere in the draft and I get a good QB, I consider it a tremendous victory.

I also think it's a bit odd that you're calling Bulger, Trent Green, and Hasselbeck "franchise QBs" after you just disagreed with my characterization of "good QBs" as franchise QBs.

Regardless, yes, you can find franchise QBs outside the first round. The odds are just extremely stacked against you.

For me, a franchise QB is simply a QB who a franchise can stick with for the foreseeable future. If I want to get into discussing the quality of a QB, I'll use terms like "elite," "great," "good," "top 5," etc. That's why I choose to define it that way.

Well if I'm picking a QB in the first round.....anywhere in the first round....I want him to be of the franchise/elite type. And I have no problem with a team drafting a QB in the first round. The Rams this year? I'd prefer a WR in the first. JMHO.

On Bulger, Green and Hasslebeck they fit my criteria for franchise QB. All were elite passer that their team went to great lengths to keep. The Rams signed Bulger to a 6 year/65 million contract that ranked him just behind Peyton Manning, Favre, Palmer and Brady. Hasselbeck played for the Seahawks for a decade and during a 6 year period had a 133-76 TD/Int ratio. He led the NFL in passer rating in 2005 and led the Seahawks to the playoffs 5 straight years. The Seahawks gave him a nice deal back in 2005, 6 yrs/47 mil, which at that time was pretty good money. Trent Green? He was traded to Kansas City for a 1st round pick in 2001 and signed a contract similar to Hasselbeck (6 yrs/50 mil). But beyond that, their play on the field and their numbers ranked among the NFL's best during their prime. And all were drafted in the 6th round

 

[jrry32]

Well if I'm picking a QB in the first round.....anywhere in the first round....I want him to be of the franchise/elite type. And I have no problem with a team drafting a QB in the first round. The Rams this year? I'd prefer a WR in the first. JMHO.

If I'm picking a QB anywhere, that's what I want him to be. But there's a difference between what I want, what I am happy with, and what is realistic. I want the next Aaron Rodgers. I am happy with a top 10 QB. Realistically, I am content if I get a solid starting QB.

Expecting to get an elite QB with a first round pick is like expecting to get J.J. Watt with a first round pick. Probably not going to happen. I don't think it's realistic.

On Bulger, Green and Hasslebeck they fit my criteria for franchise QB. All were elite passer that their team went to great lengths to keep. The Rams signed Bulger to a 6 year/65 million contract that ranked him just behind Peyton Manning, Favre, Palmer and Brady. Hasselbeck played for the Seahawks for a decade and during a 6 year period had a 133-76 TD/Int ratio. He led the NFL in passer rating in 2005 and led the Seahawks to the playoffs 5 straight years. The Seahawks gave him a nice deal back in 2005, 6 yrs/47 mil, which at that time was pretty good money. Trent Green? He was traded to Kansas City for a 1st round pick in 2001 and signed a contract similar to Hasselbeck (6 yrs/50 mil). But beyond that, their play on the field and their numbers ranked among the NFL's best during their prime. And all were drafted in the 6th round

I don't really see Bulger, Green, or Hasselbeck as any different than guys like Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Eli Manning, etc. And it should be noted that all of those guys got paid quite handsomely too. Even Jay Cutler got paid a ton of money.

 

[PARAM]

If I'm picking a QB anywhere, that's what I want him to be. But there's a difference between what I want, what I am happy with, and what is realistic. I want the next Aaron Rodgers. I am happy with a top 10 QB. Realistically, I am content if I get a solid starting QB.

Expecting to get an elite QB with a first round pick is like expecting to get J.J. Watt with a first round pick. Probably not going to happen. I don't think it's realistic.



I don't really see Bulger, Green, or Hasselbeck as any different than guys like Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Eli Manning, etc. And it should be noted that all of those guys got paid quite handsomely too. Even Jay Cutler got paid a ton of money.

Reality vs perception? What's wrong with expecting to get an elite QB with a first round pick? What's wrong with expecting to get Aaron Donald with a mid first round pick? What's wrong with expecting to get Alec Ogletree with a low first round pick? What's wrong with expecting to get an Aaron Rodgers with a first round pick?

I don't see Green, Bulger and Hasselbeck as anything different than Ryan, Flacco and Eli, etc. either. That was my point. Who's to say Mannion doesn't develop into a Trent Green or Joe Flacco or Eli Manning in a year or two? Who's to say Jared Goff or Carson Wentz are definately going to have a better NFL career than Conner Cook or Paxson Lynch?

I'm not expecting the Rams to trade the house for either of the top 2 QBs on the docket. As a matter of fact, I'm hoping they don't do anything so reckless. I do expect they may take the #3 or #4 QB on the board.

 

[LACHAMP46]

@PARAM @jrry32

Wouldn't you both agree that Kerry Collins & Jeff George could play? In different situations they'd have better careers? Didn't Collins go to the playoffs with some good coaches a couple times? In fact went (won?) a super bowl.....
Situations dictate how good a talented QB can become. They also dictate how terrible a player can look. Even though they may have extreme talent.... Like George....